Texas congressional Republican Party primary runoffs, 2018

	Texas congressional Republican Party primary runoffs, 2018
	Primary Runoff Date
	May 22, 2018
	Federal elections
	Republican primary for U.S. Senate
	Republican primaries for U.S. House
	State elections
	Republican primaries for Texas legislature
	State party
	Republican Party of Texas
	State political party revenue

Runoff elections on May 22 likely decided successors for five departing GOP incumbents in Texas' 2nd, 5th, 6th, 21st, and 27th Districts. A sixth runoff decided which Republican would run for seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Gene Green (D). No candidate in these races received more than 50 percent of the vote in the March 6 primaries.

The five runoffs to replace Republican incumbents attracted the attention of influencers like the House Freedom Caucus, Club for Growth, Texas Association of Business, and U.S. Secretary of Energy and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

A major division among the candidates was whether they would join the Freedom Caucus if elected. In three of the primaries—the 5th, 6th, and 27th Districts—candidates likely to join the Freedom Caucus (HFC) ran against candidates unlikely to join (Non-HFC). According to Dr. Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, "[the] outcome of these races could have a non-trivial impact on the ideological balance of power in the GOP House Caucus during the 116th Congress."^[1]

HFC candidates won three runoffs and non-HFC candidates won two.

The chart below shows the candidates' factional alliances and major influencers involved in the five runoffs.

Texas Republican primary runoffs
Primary	Candidate	Faction	Major endorsement(s)	Election result
Texas' 2nd District
	Kevin Roberts	Non-HFC	Texas Association of Business	Lost
	Daniel Crenshaw	Non-HFC	Rick Perry	Won
Texas' 5th District
	Lance Gooden	Non-HFC	Texas Association of Business	Won
	Bunni Pounds	HFC	Club for Growth	Lost
Texas' 6th District
	Jake Ellzey	Non-HFC	Rick Perry	Lost
	Ron Wright	HFC	Club for Growth	Won
Texas' 21st District
	Chip Roy	HFC	Rick Perry, Club for Growth, House Freedom Caucus	Won
	Matt McCall	HFC	-	Lost
Texas' 27th District
	Bech Bruun	Non-HFC	Texas Association of Business, Rick Perry	Lost
	Michael Cloud	HFC	Club for Growth, House Freedom Caucus	Won

Who can participate in a primary runoff in Texas? According to the Texas Election Code, a voter can participate in a party's primary runoff if he or she is registered as a member of that party, voted in that party's initial primary, or signs an affidavit "stating that the voter did not vote in the primary or participate in a convention of another party during the same voting year." Click here for more information on primary laws in Texas.^[2]

Election results

Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 2

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Daniel Crenshaw	69.5	19,430
	Kevin Roberts	30.5	8,523

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 27,953
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Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 5

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Lance Gooden	53.1	23,294
	Bunni Pounds	46.9	20,542

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 43,836
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Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 6

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Ronald Wright	52.2	12,747
	Jake Ellzey	47.8	11,686

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 24,433
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Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 21

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Chip Roy	52.7	18,088
	Matt McCall	47.3	16,243

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 34,331
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Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 27

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Michael Cloud	61.1	15,041
	Bech Bruun	38.9	9,565

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 24,606
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Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 29

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Phillip Arnold Aronoff	51.9	1,151
	Carmen Montiel	48.1	1,068

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 2,219
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Political analysis of outcomes

District 2

Daily Kos: "While the race between Roberts and Crenshaw started amicably, it quickly turned into a very expensive and nasty contest. Roberts and his allies accused Crenshaw of disrespecting both Donald Trump and Christianity itself in past Facebook posts, while Crenshaw and his supporters argued that Roberts insulted Crenshaw's military experience and indeed all veterans. Two pro-Crenshaw groups also spent heavily on ads praising his service and arguing that Roberts was just a typical politician who is trying to smear his heroic opponent.

A group called Conservative Results Matter that was largely funded by Roberts' brother-in-law's law firm also invested about $600,000 here, but they may have done Roberts more harm than good with one commercial. Their spot featured pictures of Crenshaw that showed only his left side, which hid the eye patch Crenshaw wears over his missing right eye. The local media noticed, and it may have fed into Crenshaw's narrative that this was a race between a heroic veteran and an ungrateful officeholder."^[3]

District 5

Daily Kos: "Pounds had the support of retiring Rep. Jeb Hensarling, who used to employ Pounds as his campaign manager. Hensarling also successfully convinced Vice President Mike Pence to back her, though the Trump White House team was reportedly not happy when Pence blindsided them with his Tweet for Pounds. The Club for Growth also spent a total of $333,000 against Gooden during both rounds of the primary, though they didn't back Pounds until the runoff. Finally, Sen. Ted Cruz endorsed Pounds the evening before Election Day. Pounds also outspent Gooden during the lead up to the primary.

However, Gooden did have some advantages. A super PAC called Our Conservative Texas Future spent $400,000 for him, which helped him offset the Club's offensive. The group was primarily funded by businessman and rancher Monty Bennett, who was Gooden's largest individual donor in his legislative races. The Texas Tribune also wrote that Gooden, who also owns an acre of property with Bennett, has passed legislation that has benefited Bennett's ranch. Gooden also had the support of most of the defeated March candidates.

Geography also proved to be an important factor. While this district is often described as a suburban Dallas seat, most of the GOP primary vote is cast in the rural counties. Pounds lives in Dallas County while Gooden holds a rural state House seat, so if Gooden could just do well with his base, he'd be in good shape. However, Gooden had struggled in past races at home. While he was first elected to the state House in 2010, he never took more than 55 percent of the vote in any of his renomination contests. In 2014, Gooden even lost his seat 51-49 in the primary, and he only won his rematch 52-48 two years later.

Despite those showings, however, Gooden's rural base of support helped him get first place in the crowded March primary and beat Pounds on Tuesday. Pounds carried Dallas County 57-43, but it made up just 13 percent of the vote. Gooden ended up taking just over 60 percent of the vote in the two counties that make up his state House seat despite his poor performances there in the past."^[3]

District 6

Daily Kos: "Neither Republican spent much money (and Wright has even gone into debt to keep his campaign afloat), but the Club for Growth aired ads to support Wright. A good deal of Wright's weak showing seems to been due to forces largely outside of his control. The Star-Telegram's Bub Kennedy writes that there were several competitive local races in Ellis and Navarro counties that helped boost turnout in Ellzey's strongest areas, while turnout in Wright's Tarrant County base was bad. And indeed, while Tarrant made up 57 percent of the GOP primary vote in March, it made up just 44 percent on Tuesday...

It's possible that there was a conservative backlash against Barton, both due to his scandal and over his support for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, that hurt Wright. And despite the support of the anti-establishment Club for Growth, it was always a bit difficult for Wright to argue he wasn't a political insider."^[3]

District 21

Daily Kos: "Chip Roy, a former chief of staff to Sen. Ted Cruz, won the GOP runoff against perennial candidate Matt McCall by a surprisingly close 53-47 margin. Roy had the backing of Cruz, retiring Rep. Lamar Smith, the Club for Growth, and an allied organization called National Horizon PAC. McCall, who badly lost primary bids against Smith over the last two cycles, had no prominent outside support, and he was badly outspent."^[3]

District 27

Daily Kos: "Until the March primary, it appeared that Bruun was on a glide path to Congress. While Cloud had been challenging Farenthold in the primary months before the congressman resigned in disgrace, he raised little money for his efforts. But Cloud did have the support of former Rep. Ron Paul, who used to represent a portion of this seat and is very much not a member of the party establishment, which may have given him an unexpected boost.

It looked possible that Bruun could win the majority in the first round he'd need to win the GOP nod outright, but he instead ended up outpacing Cloud just 36-34. Cloud's prospects very quickly improved even further after that showing. All the defeated primary candidates quickly endorsed him, and the Club for Growth began airing ads both touting Cloud and slamming Brunn as a career politician."^[3]

Club for Growth involvement

Star-Telegram: "Of the Club's endorsed Texas House candidates vying in runoffs Tuesday, Michael Cloud in the 27th district, Ron Wright in the 6th district and Chip Roy in the 21st district were declared winners. Bunni Pounds lost to Lance Gooden in the 5th district early Wednesday morning. A fifth Club candidate, Van Taylor, won the GOP nomination in the 3rd district in the March primary. Those candidates have the potential to massively shift Texas’s Washington representation to the right, replacing more pragmatic Republicans who are retiring with candidates who support the Club’s hardline approach to shrinking the government and cutting taxes and spending.

'[There is] a genuine disagreement about the vision for the Republican Party,' Club for Growth President David McIntosh said in an interview with the Star-Telegram Tuesday night. 'I think what happens in Texas… will give us a good indication as to which way the party is going to go in other parts of the country.'

Tuesday’s results also mark another significant step in the state’s evolving GOP power grid — from campaigns dominated by powerful business interests to ideological hardliners funded by a wealthy few. The Club spent big money promoting its chosen candidates in crowded primaries in open, Republican-leaning districts. It did so virtually uncontested by national business-backed groups that are frustrated with many of the Club’s candidates in Washington.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is currently at odds with conservatives on Capitol Hill over the lawmakers' opposition to an immigration overhaul the business community desperately wants. But that group didn’t spend any money in Texas GOP primaries, and is focused on races in other states. The Texas Association of Business is raising money to revive its political activity in both state and federal races, but this year had just a fraction of the Club’s money. It endorsed Gooden, plus two candidates who lost in runoffs Tuesday night.

Even among the Club’s ideological allies in Texas, the group’s influence is raising some alarm. Each of its candidate should hold their seats easily in November — and potentially years to come — in deep red districts.^[4]

District 2

See also: Texas' 2nd Congressional District election (March 6, 2018 Republican primary)

Former Navy SEAL Daniel Crenshaw defeated State Rep. Kevin Roberts in the runoff for Ted Poe's (R) congressional seat. Prior to the March 6 Republican primary, Roberts was endorsed by the National Rifle Association and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett and was second in fundraising behind Kathaleen Wall. Crenshaw, who beat out Wall for the runoff by 145 votes, was endorsed by U.S. Reps. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) and Scott Taylor (R-Virg.) and was fourth in fundraising. Wall put about $6 million of her own funds into her bid and received the support of Gov. Greg Abbott, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, and Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The race between Crenshaw and Roberts became contentious in early May when Roberts and the satellite group Conservative Results Matter began drawing attention to a December 2015 Facebook post by Crenshaw that was critical of President Donald Trump and supportive of same-sex marriage.^[5]^[6] Crenshaw said he posted the remarks early in the 2016 presidential primary when candidates with Texas connections, including Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz, were still in the race.^[7]

According to Dr. Mark P. Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, a win by Crenshaw was likely to move the House Republican Caucus to the right, while a win by Roberts was likely to move the caucus to the center.^[1]

Election results

Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Texas District 2

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Daniel Crenshaw	69.5	19,430
	Kevin Roberts	30.5	8,523

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 27,953
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Endorsements after March 6, 2018

See this section for endorsements before the March 6 primaries

Daniel Crenshaw

Texas Freedom Caucus members Tony Tinderholt, Kyle Biedermann, Jonathan Stickland, and Matt Rinaldi
U.S. Secretary of Energy and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry^[8]
U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)^[9]
Michael Reagan, son of President Ronald Reagan (R)^[10]

Kevin Roberts

Texas Association of Business^[11]
Gene Birdwell, a founder of two veteran assistance groups in Houston^[12]

Satellite spending

Americans Together spent about $85,000 supporting Dan Crenshaw between May 17 and May 21.^[13]
The American Patriots PAC spent about $280,000 supporting Dan Crenshaw and opposing Kevin Roberts between May 5 and May 21.^[13]
Conservative Results Matter disclosed about $630,000 in spending opposing Crenshaw between May 1 and May 21.^[14] It paid for a television ad that drew attention to critical remarks Crenshaw made about President Trump in 2015.^[7]^[13] Most of the groups funds were donated by the Lanier Law Firm, which was founded by Kevin Roberts' brother-in-law.^[15]
Defenders of Freedom and Security spent about $8,000 supporting Dan Crenshaw on May 17.^[13]
The Texas Patriots PAC spent nearly $9,000 supporting Dan Crenshaw between May 10 and May 11.^[13]
The With Honor Fund, which endorsed Crenshaw ahead of the March 6 primary, spent over $500,000 supporting him between March 29 and May 16. Its support included paying for television and digital ads.^[7]^[13]

Campaign advertisements

Daniel Crenshaw

Support

On May 9, American Patriots PAC began airing the following pro-Crenshaw ad.

"Crenshaw Doesn't Quit," released May 9, 2018

On May 7, Crenshaw released a radio ad where former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Navy SEAL Marcus Luttrell, the subject of the film Lone Survivor, expressed their support for him.^[8]

The With Honor Fund released the following ad in support of Crenshaw on April 27.

"We Need Dan Crenshaw," released April 27, 2018

Oppose

Conservative Results Matter released the following ad opposing Crenshaw on May 1.

"Insane," released May 1, 2018

Kevin Roberts

Support

"Flooding," released April 19, 2018

"Home," released April 19, 2018

Oppose

With Honor released the following ad opposing Roberts on May 16.

"The Real World," released May 16, 2018

Debates

The Texas Tribune released the following Split Decision debate between Crenshaw and Roberts on April 11, 2018.^[16]

"Split Decision," released April 11, 2018

Campaign finance

The candidates reported the following campaign finance figures on May 2, 2018.

Dan Crenshaw raised almost $650,000 and had about $144,000 in cash-on-hand.
Kevin Roberts raised over $1 million and had about $108,000 in cash-on-hand.

The candidates reported the following campaign finance figures on March 31, 2018.

Dan Crenshaw raised almost $400,000 and had about $80,000 in cash-on-hand.
Kevin Roberts raised over $875,000 and had about $140,000 in cash-on-hand.

March 6, 2018 primary election results

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 2

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Kevin Roberts	33.0	15,273
✔		Daniel Crenshaw	27.4	12,679
		Kathaleen Wall	27.1	12,524
		Rick Walker	7.2	3,320
	Submit photo	Jonny Havens	2.0	936
		Justin Lurie	0.9	425
		Jon Spiers	0.9	418
	Submit photo	David Balat	0.8	348
	Submit photo	Malcolm Whittaker	0.7	322

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 46,245
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District 5

See also: Texas' 5th Congressional District election (March 6, 2018 Republican primary)

State Rep. Lance Gooden defeated political consultant Bunni Pounds in the runoff for Jeb Hensarling's (R) congressional seat. Prior to the March 6 Republican primary, Pounds, who was Hensarling's former campaign manager, led the field in high-profile endorsements and fundraising. She received the support of Hensarling, House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), Congresswoman Mia Love (R-Utah), and organizations like Texas Right to Life and Maggie's List. Gooden was third in fundraising and received support from a number of local mayors and sheriffs from the district, which he represented part of in the Texas state House. He was also supported by the super PAC Our Conservative Texas Future, which reported $105,000 in funding from Dallas hotel businessman Monty Bennett or groups connected to him.^[17]

According to the Palestine Herald-Press, the race was "defined less by policy difference than by a theme of rural versus urban, and a debate over who's the most conservative candidate."

Gooden touted himself as a conservative candidate from the rural part of the district who was not connected to Washington interests. Pounds, who was from the Dallas-Fort Worth area and had worked with Washington, D.C. groups in the past, called Gooden one of the most liberal Republicans in the state House and cast herself as the conservative candidate in the race.^[18]

Policy issues that differentiate the candidates included school vouchers, which Gooden opposed and Pounds supported, and federal support for rural farms, which Gooden supported and Pounds opposed.^[19]