The Executive Summary: Final projections for 2012 elections
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November 1, 2012
Edited by Geoff Pallay
Welcome to the last Executive Summary before voters head to the polls on November 6.
This edition of the Executive Summary will feature our final update for projections heading into the elections. Additionally, we will link to our page compiling news stories previewing the elections.
Elections
Listen to the latest election news here:
- Episode 37 (2012), a preview of State Executive elections set to take place on November 6, 2012.(October 11, 2012)
New episodes published every Thursday. Click here for past episodes.
This year, 22 states are holding regularly-scheduled state executive official elections. In those elections, a total of 37 state executive seats and 57 down ballot seats are up for election. Wisconsin also held two special recall elections for Gov. Scott Walker and Lt. Gov Rebecca Kleefisch on June 5, 2012.
- 21 states have already held primary elections.
- Louisiana will hold its primary election for statewide races on November 6, 2012, when all other states hold their general election.
Projections
Today, Ballotpedia released its final projections for the 2012 elections. The table below contains projections for both State Executive and State Legislative elections in 2012. The figures are derived by adding up the number of top-ballot state executive positions + the number of chambers for each party. Top-ballot refers to governors, lieutenant governors, attorneys general and secretaries of state. While there are 37 top-ballot state executive positions up for election and 86 state legislative chambers with 2012 elections, the Nebraska Legislature is officially nonpartisan, thus bringing a total of 122 projected outcomes.
| Democrats Before election: 55 Predicted after election: 41 (18 Toss-ups) |
Republicans Before election: 65 Predicted after election: 64 (18 Toss-ups) |
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| *Note: The figures above are derived by adding up the total state executive seats + total chambers held by a party.
**The figures are missing three state legislative chambers. There were two ties (Alaska Senate and Oregon House) and one nonpartisan chamber (Nebraska) | |
| Month | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Toss Up | Lean R | Likely R | Safe R |
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| August 1, 2012 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 33 |
| September 1, 2012 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 14 | 14 | 32 |
| October 1, 2012 | 24 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 35 |
| November 1, 2012 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 37 |
| August changes: MO LtGov to Lean R; WV SoS to Likely D; OR SoS to Safe D; OR AttyGen to Lean D; Alaska Senate to lean R; Pennsylvania Senate to lean R; Washington Senate to lean D; Ohio House to likely R; New Hampshire House to lean R September changes: NC Gov to Likely R; Vt. LtGov to Safe R; OR SOS to toss-up; PA AG to lean D; Rhode Island Senate to safe D; Montana House to Safe R October changes:IN Gov to Safe R, MO Gov to Lean D; MO Lt. Gov to Likely R, MT Lt. Gov to Toss-up; Oregon SOS to Lean D; Oregon and VT AG to Safe D; MO AG to Likely D; WV AG to Lean D; IN and MT AG to Likely R; AR House to Lean R; PA House to Likely R; CT Senate to Lean D; Iowa Senate to Toss-up; AR Senate to Lean R; Maine Senate to Lean D |
News stories
This November Ballotpedia's election coverage centers around the 176 ballot questions, 468 congressional seats, 94 state executive positions and 6,015 state legislative seats that will be on the November 6, 2012 election ballot. Ballotpedia staff will release news preview articles for all states holding 2012 elections.
The State Executive Officials team is writing 16 preview articles, one for each state (with some states combined into regional articles). Here are the completed versions:
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Central Regional State Executive Officials
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Delaware State Executive Officials
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Indiana State Executive Officials
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Missouri State Executive Officials
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: New Hampshire State Executive Officials
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: North Carolina State Executive Officials
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: North Dakota State Executive Officials
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Pennsylvania State Executive Officials
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Southeast Regional State Executive Officials
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Vermont State Executive Officials
- Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: West Virginia State Executive Officials
