The Runoff Report: December 18, 2020
December 18, 2020
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An update on runoff race ratings  Welcome to The Runoff ReportDecember 18, 2020Republicans have secured 50 seats in the next U.S. Senate compared to 48 seats for Democrats (including two independents who caucus with them). Control of the next Senate will come down to Georgia's runoff elections. In The Runoff Report, we provide the latest on each runoff and the fight for Senate control.  
Regular Election UpdatesDavid Perdue will hold a rally with Donald Trump Jr. in Ocilla this evening. Jon Ossoff continued his “Health, Jobs, and Justice” bus tour with stops in Albany and Americus on Thursday. This election is for a full six-year term ending January 2027. Perdue was first elected in 2014. Ossoff ran against Karen Handel (R) in the 6th Congressional District special election in 2017. Click here for more coverage of the regular election.
Special Election UpdatesKelly Loeffler will hold a rally with Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and country music artist Travis Tritt in Smyrna this afternoon. Cruz and Scott will also appear at a Club for Growth Action-sponsored rally directly before the Loeffler event. Raphael Warnock appeared on The View Dec. 17. He said Loeffler profited off of stock trades during the pandemic’s early days. The special election will fill the remainder of the term Johnny Isakson (R) won in 2016. He resigned in Dec. 2019, and Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Warnock is senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church. The winner will complete the term ending in January 2023. Click here for more coverage of the special election.
Overall campaign updates
Today: Looking at election forecasters’ runoff projectionsWhat do election forecasters have to say about the Georgia runoffs, and how have these forecasts changed since the general election? Before Nov. 3, all three election forecasters Ballotpedia tracks (The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball) had Democrats’ and Republicans’ chances of winning about even in the Georgia Senate races. All three forecasters rated the Ossoff-Perdue race a toss-up. Two had the Loeffler-Warnock race a toss-up, while Inside Elections said it tilted towards Loeffler. Since the general election, the ratings change in either contest was Inside Elections’ opinion of the Loeffler-Warnock race, which changed to toss-up. This means all three outlets rate both runoffs as toss-ups. Gonzales said he changed his ratings because of doubts about historic turnout models: The assumption that Republicans have a significant advantage in the January races (and thus are significantly favored to hold the Senate majority) is built on the history of runoffs on Georgia (Republicans have won all but one), the assumption that Democratic turnout will dramatically decrease (which was the case before 2018), and perceptions of Georgia as the Republican state it was 20, 10 or even just four years ago. But none of those factors is strong enough this time to determine that there’s a significant advantage for Perdue or Loeffler. Ballotpedia reached out to the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball to confirm their post-election race ratings.
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