The Tap: Party insiders guess at partisan outcomes

September 17, 2016Issue No. 34

The week in review: September 10 - September 16
What's on Tap next week: September 17 - September 23

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Federal

What's on tap?

On Monday, September 12, Ballotpedia’s senior staff writer Jim Barnes released a survey of more than 200 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest group operatives. The survey, conducted from September 2 to 6, found the participants divided over the likelihood of Democrats taking over the Senate this fall. Republicans concede that it is basically a 50-50 proposition that they will be able to retain their majority. Democrats were more bullish, but not overly confident they’ll be able to prevail.

The party operatives were asked to rate the chances on a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty) that the Democrats would win the Senate. The 100 Democratic Insiders who participated in this survey gave an average score of 6.5, while 105 Republican Insiders registered an average of 5.1.

Ballotpedia also surveyed these same Democratic and Republican Insiders on their thoughts on the fate of the House of Representatives this November. The party operatives were asked to rate the chances on a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty) that the Democrats would win the House. The 101 Democratic Insiders who participated in this survey gave an average score of 2.7, while 105 Republican Insiders registered an average of 2.0.

See also: Insiders divided on Senate races, give nod to GOP in battle for the House

Democratic responses

Republican responses

 

Federal

The Week in Review

Saturday, September 10

• Hillary Clinton said that she felt "regret" for saying that "half" of Donald Trump's supporters could be described as "deplorables" because they held racist, sexist, homophobic, or Islamophobic beliefs.
  • Trump later called on Clinton to apologize for the remarks, saying, “The disdain that Hillary Clinton expressed toward millions of Americans disqualifies her from public service. You cannot run for president if you have such contempt in your heart for the American voter. You can't lead this nation if you have such a low opinion of its citizens. … Hillary Clinton has not apologized to those she slandered. In fact, she hasn't backed down at all. If Hillary Clinton will not retract her comments in full, I don't see how she can credibly campaign any further.”
  • The Trump campaign also released an ad titled “Deplorables” targeting Clinton’s comments. In the ad, which shows images from the Republican National Convention, a narrator says that Clinton called “People like you, you, and you deplorable. … You know what's deplorable? Hillary Clinton viciously demonizing hard-working people like you.” The ad is running in Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida.

• Two U.S. Navy surveillance aircraft—a P-8 Poseidon and an EP-3 Eries—”were flying a reconnaissance mission 13 miles off the coast of Iran, through the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman” when Iranian military officials told the aircraft that they were too close to Iranian airspace and needed to leave, according to Fox News. Commander Bill Urban, a spokesman for U.S. Naval Forces Central Command in Bahrain, said that Iranian officials said, “We will fire Iranian missile.” According to The Wall Street Journal, “State Department officials decried the incident, saying it showed Iran had yet to show signs of shifting from its aggressive stance in the region even after the international nuclear agreement reached last year.” Mark Toner, a State Department spokesman, said, “Frankly, there’ve been previous incidents much like this, and they’re concerning, obviously. They escalate tensions. We have conveyed our concerns to Iran.”

Sunday, September 11

• Clinton's campaign reported that she left a ceremony commemorating the September 11 terrorist attacks in New York City early because she felt "overheated." After video surfaced online of Clinton appearing to lose her balance before entering a vehicle, the campaign disclosed that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia on Friday. Clinton later told reporters that she was "feeling great."
  • Commenting on Clinton’s leaving the ceremony in New York and the announcement that she has pneumonia, Donald Trump said, “Well, I really just don't know, I hope she gets well soon. I don't know what's going on. I'm like you. I just see what I see. The coughing fit was a week ago, so I assume that was pneumonia also. I would have to think it would have been, so something is going on, but I just hope she gets well and gets back on the trail, and we'll be seeing her at the debate.”

• Jill Stein released a statement on her website calling for "a comprehensive and independent inquiry into" the September 11 terrorist attacks. She wrote, "It is well known that the 9/11 Commission produced a report containing so many omissions and distortions that Harper's Magazine described it as 'whitewash as public service'—a document that 'defrauds the nation.’” Stein added that there were unanswered questions about what role Saudi intelligence and other intelligence agencies may have played in the attacks.

• While campaigning in Iowa, Jill Stein said that she would not have assassinated Osama bin Laden if she were president. “I think assassinations … they’re against international law to start with and to that effect, I think I would not have assassinated Osama bin Laden but would have captured him and brought him to trial," Stein explained.

• President Barack Obama spoke during a memorial service at the Pentagon for the survivors and families of 9/11 terror attacks. He said, “We remember, and we will never forget, the nearly 3,000 beautiful lives taken from us so cruelly -- including 184 men, women and children here, the youngest just three years old. We honor the courage of those who put themselves in harm’s way to save people they never knew. We come together in prayer and in gratitude for the strength that has fortified us across these 15 years. And we renew the love and the faith that binds us together as one American family.”

• During an interview on Fox News Sunday, Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson said on the 15th anniversary of the September 11 terror attacks that although the threat of a large-scale attack is unlikely, the threat posed by lone wolf terrorists still exists. He said, “Our government’s become pretty good at detecting and preventing something hatched from overseas. We’re better than we were 15 years ago. Where we’re challenged, however, is the lone wolf-style attack.”

Monday, September 12

• In an interview with Anderson Cooper on CNN, Hillary Clinton said she did not think her pneumonia was "going to be that big a deal." She continued, "I was supposed to rest five days -- that's what they told me on Friday -- and I didn't follow that very wise advice. So I just want to get this over and done with and get back on the trail as soon as possible.” The Clinton campaign also announced that it would release more of Clinton's medical records throughout the week.

• In an interview on CNBC, Donald Trump said that Janet Yellen, the chair of the Federal Reserve, has created a “false stock market” by keeping interest rates low to bolster Barack Obama’s legacy. Regarding interest rates, he said, “Well it's staying at zero because she's obviously political, and she's doing what Obama wants her to do … Any increase at all will be a very, very small increase because they want to keep the market up so Obama goes out and let the new guy ... raise interest rates ... and watch what happens in the stock market.”
  • See also: Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016/Banking policy

• The Minnesota Supreme Court dismissed a petition submitted by the Minnesota Democratic Party to remove Donald Trump's name from the state's general election ballot. Minnesota Democrats charged that the Minnesota GOP had violated state election law when it filed the names of alternate presidential electors who had been selected by the state GOP executive committee instead of by the state convention. The court ruled that the Minnesota Democrats waited too long to submit their petition and that “every day of delay increases the potential prejudicial impact on election processes and the electorate's right to vote." The court also stated that more than one million ballots had already been printed in the state.
  • See also: Presidential election in Minnesota, 2016 and Ballot access for presidential candidates

• The Winston-Salem Journal in North Carolina endorsed Gary Johnson for president. The paper said, “We’ve surprised even ourselves with this endorsement, our first for a Libertarian for president. But the timing has never been better for this particular Libertarian, Gary Johnson of New Mexico. He is everything the presidential candidates for the two major parties are not, thank God.” The paper endorsed Barack Obama in 2012 and John McCain in 2008. The Winston-Salem Journal was Johnson’s second newspaper endorsement. The Richmond Times-Dispatch endorsed him on September 3, 2016.
  • See also: Endorsements of Gary Johnson

• James Woolsey, who served as director of the CIA during Bill Clinton’s presidency, joined Donald Trump’s campaign as a senior advisor on national security issues. Woolsey, who had previously advised John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, indicated that he joined the Trump campaign because of Trump’s willingness to expand the defense budget, saying, “He seems to be very much more so than his opponent in favor of a strong defense budget and we have got a lot of space to make up, problems that have been left in defense by the Obama administration.”
• President Barack Obama met with some of the insurers that continue to sell plans on the Affordable Care Act health insurance exchanges. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss what changes could be made to the exchanges to make them operate better. Some of the major attendees included Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina, Humana, and Highmark, Inc. The meeting was held ahead of multiple congressional hearings about the exchanges.

Tuesday, September 13

• Donald Trump released a childcare and maternity leave plan. The plan calls for a tax deduction for childcare expenses and a guaranteed six weeks of paid maternity leave. With regard to the childcare tax deduction, Trump said, “Families with a stay-at-home parent will be able to fully deduct the average cost of childcare from their taxes.” Deductions would be set at the “average cost of care” in each state and would be limited to individuals with annual incomes less than $250,000 or couples with annual incomes less than $500,000. On paid maternity leave, Trump said, “[O]ur plan offers a crucial safety net for working mothers whose employers do not provide paid maternity leave. This solution will receive strong bipartisan support … And we will be completely self-financing.” Trump campaign officials told The Washington Post that paid maternity leave would be paid for by “savings achieved by eliminating fraud in the unemployment insurance program.” Trump delivered a speech about the policy outside of Philadelphia along with his daughter, Ivanka Trump, whom he credited for helping craft the plan.
  • Hillary Clinton’s campaign, which has called for 12 weeks of paid family or medical leave, criticized Trump’s plan. A spokesperson said, “After spending his entire career — and this entire campaign — demeaning women and dismissing the need to support working families, Donald Trump released a regressive and insufficient 'maternity leave' policy that is out-of-touch, half-baked and ignores the way Americans live and work today.”
  • See also: 2016 presidential candidates on healthcare

• The New York attorney general’s office opened an investigation into the Donald J. Trump Foundation to ensure that it is “complying with the laws governing charities in New York.” The announcement comes as stories from The Washington Post and the Associated Press have raised questions about the foundation’s finances. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman said in an interview, “My interest in this issue really is in my capacity as regulator of nonprofits in New York state. And we have been concerned that the Trump Foundation may have engaged in some impropriety from that point of view. And we’ve inquired into it, and we’ve had correspondence with them. I didn’t make a big deal out of it or hold a press conference. We have been looking into the Trump Foundation to make sure it's complying with the laws governing charities in New York.”
  • In response to the news of the investigation, a spokesperson for Trump’s campaign said, “Attorney General Eric Schneiderman is a partisan hack who has turned a blind eye to the Clinton Foundation for years and has endorsed Hillary Clinton for President. This is nothing more than another left-wing hit job designed to distract from Crooked Hillary Clinton's disastrous week.”

• House Democrats asked Attorney General Loretta Lynch to open a Justice Department investigation into the Trump Foundation concerning a donation in support of Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi’s re-election bid in 2013. Bondi’s office was reportedly reviewing allegations made against Trump University around the time the donation was made, but later decided to not to pursue an investigation. Trump and Bondi have both denied any connections between the donation and the decision by Bondi’s office not to investigate Trump University. In a letter to Lynch, Democratic members of the House Judiciary Committee cited anti-bribery laws and said, “These payments may have influenced Mrs. Bondi's official decision not to participate in litigation against Mr. Trump.”
  • See also: Trump University and History of Donald Trump’s political donations

• Responding to a questionnaire from Scientific American, Donald Trump voiced his opinions on issues such as climate change, scientific integrity, and space exploration.
  • Climate change: “There is still much that needs to be investigated in the field of ‘climate change.’ Perhaps the best use of our limited financial resources should be in dealing with making sure that every person in the world has clean water. Perhaps we should focus on eliminating lingering diseases around the world like malaria. Perhaps we should focus on efforts to increase food production to keep pace with an ever-growing world population. Perhaps we should be focused on developing energy sources and power production that alleviates the need for dependence on fossil fuels. We must decide on how best to proceed so that we can make lives better, safer and more prosperous.”
  • Scientific integrity: “Science is science and facts are facts. My administration will ensure that there will be total transparency and accountability without political bias. The American people deserve this and I will make sure this is the culture of my administration.”
  • Space exploration: “Space exploration has given so much to America, including tremendous pride in our scientific and engineering prowess. A strong space program will encourage our children to seek STEM educational outcomes and will bring millions of jobs and trillions of dollars in investment to this country. The cascading effects of a vibrant space program are legion and can have a positive, constructive impact on the pride and direction of this country. Observation from space and exploring beyond our own space neighborhood should be priorities. We should also seek global partners, because space is not the sole property of America. All humankind benefits from reaching into the stars.”
    • See also: Donald Trump on climate change and energy and environmental policy

• Gary Johnson’s campaign announced that it had achieved ballot access in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The Johnson/Weld ticket will be the first third-party ticket to appear on all fifty state ballots plus D.C. since 1996. The final state for Johnson and Weld was Rhode Island.
  • See also: Gary Johnson presidential campaign, 2016 and Ballot access for presidential candidates

• The Johnson campaign took out a full-page ad in The New York Times featuring an open letter to the Commission on Presidential Debates. The top of the ad reads in big, bold letters, “62% of voters polled want Gov. Johnson included in the debates.” The 62 percent comes from an August 25 Quinnipiac University poll. The letter states, “We have done the work required to appear on the ballot in all 50 states and because we are polling in double digits in the majority of those states, we respectfully propose the following: Put a third podium on stage for the debate scheduled on September 26th. Allow us to make our case to the American people. If, in the polls that follow, we fail to meet that 15% standard, we’ll make no further efforts for inclusion in subsequent debates.” The CPD requires candidates to poll at 15 percent or higher in an average of five national polls in order to be invited to a general election presidential debate. Johnson’s average on Real Clear Politics’ aggregation of polls was at 8.3 percent as of September 15.
  • See also: Presidential debates (2015-2016), Commission on Presidential Debates, and Fact check: Are the presidential debates rigged in favor of major party candidates?

• In an op-ed published by The Guardian, Jill Stein said that she would "immediately pardon Edward Snowden, Chelsea Manning and John Kiriakou for their important work in exposing the massive, systematic violation of our constitutional rights" and "invite them to the White House to publicly acknowledge their heroism” if she were elected president. She added that she would “create a role for them in the Stein-Baraka Green party administration to help us create a modern framework that protects personal privacy while still conducting effective investigations where warranted.”

• The Clinton campaign released a new ad, "Low Opinion," which features several clips of Donald Trump making derogatory or negative statements about individuals based on their gender, ethnicity, disability, or intelligence. The video is a direct response to Trump's charge that "you can't lead this nation if you have such a low opinion for its citizens," which was made after Clinton described "half" of Trump's supporters as "deplorables." The ad is set to air nationally.

• The final congressional primaries of the election cycle took place on Tuesday in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.
• Delaware held U.S. House primaries.
  • There is a single At-Large Congressional District in Delaware. It is currently held by Rep. John Carney Jr. (D). Carney is running for governor rather than seeking re-election to his House seat. Lisa Blunt Rochester won the Democratic primary on Tuesday, defeating five other candidates. She will face Hans Reigle (R) in the general election. The race is rated safely Democratic in November.
• New Hampshire held congressional primaries.
  • The U.S. Senate seat currently held by Kelly Ayotte (R) is up for election in 2016. Ayotte is seeking re-election and easily defeated four primary challengers on Tuesday. She will face Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) in the general election. New Hampshire is one of the nine Senate battleground races that will determine which party will control the Senate.
  • There are two House districts in New Hampshire. Control of the state’s congressional districts is currently divided, and each party holds one congressional district.
  • District 1 is currently held by Frank Guinta (R). Guinta is seeking re-election despite calls for his resignation from Republicans following a campaign finance controversy regarding illegal contributions. Guinta narrowly defeated challenger Rich Ashooh in the Republican primary. The race remained uncalled Tuesday night, with Guinta leading by just over 1 percent of the vote. Ashooh conceded the race early on Wednesday despite there still being uncounted votes. Guinta will face another rematch with former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in the general election. The district is one of the country's most volatile battleground districts. It has swapped hands between Guinta and Shea-Porter in every election cycle since 2010.
  • District 2 is currently held by Annie Kuster (D). She is seeking re-election in 2016 and faced no primary opposition. Kuster will face Jim Lawrence (R) in the general election. The seat is rated safely Democratic in November.
• Rhode Island held U.S. House primaries.
  • Rhode Island has two U.S. House districts. Both seats are currently held by the Democratic Party, and both races are rated safely Democratic in the general election. Both incumbents are seeking re-election in 2016, and they both easily defeated their primary challengers to advance to the general election.

• President Obama nominated Diane Gujarati, an assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, to an Article III judicial position on the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York vacated by Judge John Gleeson, who resigned from the district court. The court has 15 active judicial posts with two current vacancies. President Obama nominated Gary R. Brown on July 30, 2015, to fill the other vacancy on the Eastern District bench. Ballotpedia lists 75 vacant positions out of 677 authorized judgeships at the federal district court level—an 11 percent vacancy rate.

• Republican leaders in the U.S. Senate stated that Merrick Garland would not receive a confirmation hearing during a lame-duck session in 2016. Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said, "We've already made it very clear that a nomination for the Supreme Court by this president will not be filled this year." Majority whip John Cornyn of Texas, when asked if there was any possibility Garland would be considered during the lame-duck session, responded, "No."
  • For more, see U.S. Senators on the nomination of Merrick Garland

• The Committee to Restore America’s Greatness, a pro-Donald Trump super PAC started by Republican operative and Trump ally Roger Stone, paid $25,000 for a 55-foot digital billboard of Trump as a superhero in Times Square. Joel Gilbert, creator of the ad, said, “You see Trump traveling the country on his airplane. He’s looking to solve people’s problems. … It’s giving power back to the people. Who is more American than Superman?”

• Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said that U.S. special forces troops must leave Mindanao, a group of islands in the southern Philippines, because they are “high-value targets for the Islamic State-linked Abu Sayyaf militants as counter-insurgency operations intensify.” The directive came a week after Duterte had harsh words for President Barack Obama, calling him a “son of a whore”—something for which he later apologized. Duterte said, "They [the U.S. troops] have to go. I do not want a rift with America. But they have to go. Americans, they will really kill them, they will try to kidnap them to get ransom." According to Reuters, “A spokesman for the U.S. State Department, John Kirby, said it was not aware of any official communication by Manila calling for a withdrawal. He said Washington remained committed to the alliance.”

Wednesday, September 14

• Hillary Clinton’s physician, Dr. Lisa Bardack of CareMount Medical, released a letter stating that Clinton was prescribed antibiotics for pneumonia last week and “continues to improve.” Bardack also noted that while Clinton was diagnosed with a sinus and ear infection earlier in the year, she underwent a CT scan that “showed no abnormalities of the brain.” Bardack concluded, “She continues to remain healthy and fit to serve as President of the United States.”

• Trump delivered a speech at a predominantly African American church in Flint, Michigan, and was interrupted by the church’s pastor while criticizing Hillary Clinton. Rev. Faith Green Timmons walked toward the podium during Trump’s remarks and said, “Mr. Trump, I invited you here to thank us for what we've done in Flint, not give a political speech.” Trump responded by saying, “O.K., that’s good. Flint. And I’m going to back on to Flint. O.K. O.K. Flint’s pain is a result of so many different failures.” His speech was interrupted again when a member of the audience asked him about reports that his real estate company had “discriminated against black tenants,” a charge that Trump denied. Trump later addressed his experience with Rev. Timmons in an interview on Fox News, saying, “Everyone plays their games, it doesn’t bother me. … She was so nervous, she was like a nervous mess. I figured something was up.”
  • See also: Presidential election in Michigan, 2016

• Cosmopolitan interviewed Ivanka Trump about her father’s childcare and maternity leave proposals. In the phone interview, Cosmopolitan asked how the plan would affect male same-sex couples. Ivanka said, “The plan, right now, is focusing on mothers, whether they be in same-sex marriages or not.” The interviewer then asked about a 2004 interview with Donald Trump in which he reportedly said that “pregnancy is an inconvenience for business.” Ivanka responded by saying, “So I think that you have a lot of negativity in these questions, and I think my father has put forth a very comprehensive and really revolutionary plan to deal with a lot of issues. So I don't know how useful it is to spend too much time with you on this if you're going to make a comment like that. … I hope that, regardless of what your political viewpoint is, this should be celebrated.”
  • Trump later tweeted: “@Cosmopolitan, your readers do & should care about issues impacting women & children. Keep the focus where it belongs—advocating change.”
  • See also: Donald Trump on healthcare, labor and employment, and marriage equality

• Vox published an interview with Jill Stein covering several policy issues, including immigration, student debt, gun control, climate change, and foreign relations.
  • On granting temporary visas to immigrants: “There are problems with temporary visas for immigrants — there’s a real downside to that, in that they become second class citizens and they become subject to a whole other tier of low wages. This is partly why we call for full citizenship for immigrants who have been here. That’s the bulk of the issue.”
  • On gun confiscation programs and other gun control measures: “It’d be hard to do that at this point. So, we establish background checks and assault weapons ban as a floor. And we add to that stripping the gun manufacturers of their immunity — so currently they have immunity right now from lawsuits holding them accountable for dangerous weapons, and for putting those weapons in the hands of dangerous people. That’s another tool that should be brought to bear that does not have issues with the Second Amendment.”
  • On NATO: “In terms of NATO, I think NATO has become an end-run around a democratic process for deciding when we engage in foreign wars and when we don’t. We’re using NATO as an excuse — not only to duck congressional responsibility for approving a war budget, but also NATO is used to duck the UN process and international law that says we cannot go to war unless a nation is specifically threatened and directly threatened.”
  • On Ukraine and Russia: “Ukraine was historically a part of Russia for quite some period of time, and we all know there was this conversation with Victoria Nuland about planning the coup and who was going to take over. Not that the other guy was some model of democracy. But the one they put in — with the support of the US and the CIA in this coup in Ukraine — that has not been a solution. Regime change is something we need to be very careful about. And this is a highly inflammatory regime change with a nuclear armed power next door. So I’m saying: Let’s just stop pretending there are good guys here and bad guys here. These are complicated situations. Yeah, Russia is doing lots of human rights abuse, but you know what? So are we.”

• The New Hampshire Union Leader endorsed Gary Johnson for president, giving Johnson his third newspaper endorsement. It was the first time in more than 100 years that the paper did not endorse the Republican candidate for president. Joseph W. McQuaid, the Union Leader’s publisher, offered criticism for Donald Trump and praise for Johnson. He said, “[Trump] is a liar, a bully, a buffoon. He denigrates any individual or group that displeases him. He has dishonored military veterans and their families, made fun of the physically frail, and changed political views almost as often as he has changed wives. Americans are being told that we have to choose the lesser of two evils. No, we don’t. Libertarians Gary Johnson and Bill Weld are on the ballot in all 50 states. Their records (as Republican governors in politically-divided states) speak well of them. They would be worth considering under many circumstances. In today’s dark times, they are a bright light of hope and reason.”
  • See also: Endorsements of Gary Johnson

• Gary Johnson delivered a speech in Detroit focused on the economy. He said that he would not have bailed out the auto industry or Wall Street. “I would not have bailed out the auto industry. I would not have bailed out Wall Street. They made horrible choices. They should have been rewarded for their horrible choices by going bankrupt,” said Johnson. Johnson also voiced his support for the Environmental Protection Agency, saying, “Government I think has a fundamental responsibility to protect us against those that would do us harm, in this case pollution. And I support the EPA.”
  • Gary Johnson on Banking Policy and Environmental Policy

• In a series of hacked emails released on DC Leaks, former Secretary of State Colin Powell commented on Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. He called Trump “a national disgrace” and “an international pariah” and criticized Clinton for her use of a private email server while secretary of state:
  • On Trump:
    • Birther movement: “Yup, the whole birther movement was racist. That’s what the 99% believe. When Trump couldn’t keep that up he said he also wanted to see if the certificate noted that he was a Muslim. As I have said before, ‘What if he was?’ Muslims are born as Americans every day. … and for [Trump] to say yesterday that within four years he would have 95% of blacks voting for him is shizo fantasy … And [Roger] Ailes won’t heal with women, don’t you think? Ailes may soon be up on charges.”
    • Black voters: “He is at 1% black voters and will drop. He takes us for idiots. He can never overcome what he tried to do to Obama with his search for the birth certificate hoping to force Obama out of the Presidency.”
  • On Clinton:
    • Emails: “I have told Hilleary's [sic] minions repeatedly that they are making a mistake trying to drag me in, yet they still try. The media isn't fooled and she is getting crucified. The differences are profound and they know it. … She and her staff refused to cooperate. I wrote a chapter about it in my book and I am proud of what we did. She had a State Dept [sic] guy taking care of the system and she was also paying him!!! And he was an old campaign worker. Unbelievable.”
    • Emails: “They are going to dick up the legitimate and necessary use of emails with friggin' record rules. I saw email more like a telephone than a cable machine. ... Everything HRC touches she kind of screws up with hubris.”
    • Benghazi: “Benghazi is a stupid witch hunt. Basic fault falls on a courageous ambassador who thoughts [sic] Libyans now love me and I am ok in this very vulnerable place. … But blame also rests on his leaders and supports back here. Pat Kennedy, Intel community, [State Department] and yes HRC.”

• Trump responded to Powell’s emails in a tweet, saying, “I was never a fan of Colin Powell after his weak understanding of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq = disaster. We can do much better!” Clinton, when asked to respond to the email in an interview, said, “I have a great deal of respect for Colin Powell, and I have a lot of sympathy for anyone whose emails have become public. I'm not going to start discussing someone else's private emails. I've already spent a lot of time talking about my own, as you know.”
  • See also: Republicans and their declared positions on Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton email investigation

• U.S. Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland held meetings on Capitol Hill with Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Democratic whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). Sen. Reid told reporters after his meeting with Judge Garland, "Meeting with Judge Garland is so difficult because this good man should be on the Supreme Court right now." Sen. Durbin said that he would recommend Garland to Hillary Clinton (D) should she be elected president, saying, "She could start filling the first vacancy without a lot of sound and fury."
  • For more, see: Supreme Court vacancy, 2016: An overview

• The United States agreed to provide Israel with $38 billion in military aid over 10 years, including F-35 joint strike fighters and $5 billion for missile defense, among other things. President Barack Obama said that the aid package “is just the most recent reflection of my steadfast commitment to the security of the state of Israel.” He added that the aid is “a significant contribution to Israel’s security in what remains a dangerous neighborhood. The continued supply of the world’s most advanced weapons technology will ensure that Israel has the ability to defend itself from all manner of threats.”

• After meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s de facto leader, President Barack Obama told reporters that the U.S. would lift sanctions on the country as they transition from a military dictatorship to democracy. Obama said, "The United States is now prepared to lift sanctions that we have imposed on Burma for quite some time.” He did not provide a timeline for lifting the sanctions. According to the Associated Press, “Suu Kyi requested the removal of the national emergency with respect to Myanmar — the executive order authorizing sanctions that has been renewed annually by U.S. presidents for two decades. The Treasury Department said that Obama's decision will be legally effective when he issues a new executive order to terminate the emergency. A U.S. official said that 111 Myanmar individuals and companies will be dropped from a Treasury blacklist and restrictions will be lifted on new investment with military and on the imports of rubies and jade. But penalties intended to block the drug trade and to bar military trade with North Korea would still apply, as would a visa ban barring some former and current members of the military from traveling to the U.S.”

Thursday, September 15

• Donald Trump revealed an economic plan which he said would create 25 million new jobs and grow the economy at an annual rate of at least 3.5 percent. Describing his plan in a speech before the Economic Club of New York as “the most pro-growth, pro-jobs, pro-family plan put forth perhaps in the history of our country,” Trump said, “My economic plan rejects the cynicism that says our labor force will keep declining, that our jobs will keep leaving and that our economy can never grow as it did once before.” The plan includes reductions in non-defense spending, lower taxes, penalties for companies that move overseas, fewer environmental regulations, and a renegotiation of NAFTA.
  • See also: Donald Trump on economic affairs and government regulations

• Jason Miller, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, released a statement saying that Donald Trump “believes that President Obama was born in the United States.” The statement opens by saying that Hillary Clinton first raised the issue “in her very nasty, failed 2008 campaign.” In 2011, the statement goes on to say, Trump compelled Obama to release his birth certificate, which Miller called a “great service” to the country. “Inarguably, Donald J. Trump is a closer. Having successfully obtained President Obama’s birth certificate when others could not, Mr. Trump believes that President Obama was born in the United States,” the statement reads. In an interview with The Washington Post the same day, Trump avoided the issue. When asked if he believed Obama was born in Hawaii, he said, “I’ll answer that question at the right time. I just don’t want to answer it yet.”
  • On Friday, Trump addressed Obama’s birthplace at a campaign event, saying, “Hillary Clinton in her campaign of 2008 started the birther controversy. I finished it. President Barack Obama was born in the United States, period. Now we all want to get back to making America strong and great again.”
  • In response, Clinton said that Trump owes Obama and the American people an apology. “For five years, he has led the birther movement to delegitimize our first black president. His campaign was founded on this outrageous lie. There is no erasing it in history. Just yesterday, Trump, again, refused to say with his own words that the president was born in the United States. … He's feeding into the worst impulses, the bigotry and bias that lurks in our country. Barack Obama was born in America, plain and simple. And Donald Trump owes him and the American people an apology,” said Clinton.

• Trump’s physician, Dr. Harold Bornstein, released a letter saying that Trump “is in excellent physical health.” The letter outlined details of Trump health including his height and weight, cholesterol levels, blood pressure, blood sugar, and the results of an EKG and chest X-ray from April 2016. In December 2015, Bornstein released a letter saying that Trump “would be the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency.” Trump also discussed his health in an interview on The Dr. Oz Show. Trump said, “I think when you're running for president, I think you have an obligation to be healthy. I just don't think you can do the work if you're not healthy.” He added that he would like to lose weight.

• Also in the interview with Dr. Oz, Trump said that birth control “should not be done by prescription.” He said, “I think what we have in birth control is, you know, when you have to get a prescription, that’s a pretty tough something to climb. And I would say it should not be a prescription, it should not be done by prescription. … you have women that just aren’t able to go get a prescription. So and [sic] more and more people are coming out and saying that, but I am not in favor of prescription for birth control.”
  • See also: Trump on Healthcare

• Paul Ryan suggested that Donald Trump should release his tax returns. Referring to his vice presidential run with Mitt Romney in 2012, Ryan said, “I released mine. I think he should release his. I know he is under an audit and he has got an opinion about when to release those. I will defer to him on that.” Trump has faced repeated criticism from Hillary Clinton’s campaign and Democrats over his decision not to release his tax returns. Clinton released her 2015 tax returns in August. Trump son, Donald Trump Jr., commented on his father’s tax returns in an interview on Wednesday, saying, “Because he’s got a 12,000-page tax return that would create … financial auditors out of every person in the country asking questions that would detract from [his father's] main message.”

• The Libertarian Party has formally requested that Gary Johnson receive national security briefings. In a letter to the General Services Administration, Libertarian Party National Chairman Nicholas Sarwark wrote, “Three tickets will be on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, but only two are receiving taxpayer-funded national security briefings. That is just wrong, and we urge the GSA to provide the same information to Governor Johnson that is being given to Mr. Trump and Sec. Clinton.” The Presidential Transition Act of 1963, which allowed for presidential candidates to receive national security briefings, requires candidates to be able to demonstrate “a significant level of public support in national public opinion polls, so as to be realistically considered among the principal contenders for President or Vice-President of the United States.”

• Two federal judiciary nominees were reported out of the Senate Judiciary Committee. These nominations now head to the full U.S. Senate for a final confirmation vote. The nominees are Lucy H. Koh, a nominee to the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, and Florence Y. Pan, a nominee to the United States District Court for the District of Columbia. Currently, Ballotpedia counts 32 nominees to the federal judiciary who are awaiting a final confirmation vote before the full U.S. Senate.
  • For more, see Ballotpedia’s Federal Vacancy Warning System

• The pro-Clinton Correct the Record PAC launched an initiative called TrumpLeaks to pay anonymous sources for previously unpublished audio and video of Donald Trump making provocative statements. Correct the Record head David Brock defended the project, saying, "I understand the prohibition on press paying for stories, but we're not the press.”

• During a radio interview, Hillary Clinton indicated that she would not request that President Barack Obama withdraw his nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court if she were elected president in November. "I’m going to let this president serve out his term with distinction and make the decisions that he thinks are right," she said. Clinton added, “If I have the opportunity to make any Supreme Court appointments I’m going to look broadly and widely for people who represent the diversity of our country, who bring some common-sense, real-world experience."
  • For more, see 2016 presidential candidates on the Supreme Court vacancy.

Friday, September 16

• The National Fraternal Order of Police endorsed Donald Trump, saying, “[Trump] has seriously looked at the issues facing law enforcement today. He understands and supports our priorities and our members believe he will make America safe again. … He's made a real commitment to America's law enforcement and we're proud to make a commitment to him and his campaign by endorsing his candidacy today.” The FOP did not endorse a candidate in 2012 but backed John McCain in 2008. The last time it endorsed a Democrat for president was Bill Clinton in 1996.
  • For more, see Donald Trump on crime and justice.

• The Commission on Presidential Debates announced that Gary Johnson and Jill Stein will not be invited to the first presidential debate of the general election season on September 26. The Commission stated, “[T]he Board determined that the polling averages called for in the third criterion are as follows: Hillary Clinton (43%), Donald Trump (40.4%), Gary Johnson (8.4%) and Jill Stein (3.2%). Accordingly, Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Tim Kaine, and Donald Trump and his running mate, Mike Pence, qualify to participate in the September 26 presidential debate and the October 4 vice presidential debate, respectively. No other candidates satisfied the criteria for inclusion in the September 26 and October 4 debates. The criteria will be reapplied to all candidates in advance of the second and third presidential debates.”
  • Gary Johnson released a statement in response on Facebook, saying, “I would say I am surprised that the CPD has chosen to exclude me from the first debate, but I’m not. After all, the Commission is a private organization created 30 years ago by the Republican and Democratic parties for the clear purpose of taking control of the only nationally-televised presidential debates voters will see. … Americans are tired of rigged systems, and the monopoly on debates created by the CPD is a prime and skillfully executed example. Bill Weld and I will continue to fight to provide a voice and an alternative for independents, disenfranchised Republicans and Democrats, Millennials and others who aren’t satisfied with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton as their options. It is unfortunate that the CPD doesn’t believe such a voice should be heard. There are more polls and more debates, and we plan to be on the debate stage in October.”
  • See also: Presidential debates (2015-2016), Commission on Presidential Debates, and Fact check: Are the presidential debates rigged in favor of major party candidates?

• The New York Times reported that the Clinton campaign has been in communication with aides to former Vice President Al Gore (D) to get him more involved in the presidential election. “I can assure you from personal experience that every vote counts. The stakes are high for so many Americans. So I will vote for Hillary Clinton and I strongly encourage others to vote for her as well,” Gore wrote The New York Times on Thursday. If he were to join Clinton on the campaign trail, he would likely discuss the impact of third-party support on a tightly contested presidential race and climate change.

Congressional Legislation

This week on Capitol Hill, members of Congress continued negotiating funding proposals to avoid a government shutdown on October 1, 2016. The Senate is expected to vote on a short-term funding bill on Monday that would last through December 9, 2016. The Senate passed a major water resources bill that includes aid to help residents of Flint, Michigan, address the city's lead-contaminated water crisis. The $9.4 billion package proposes providing funding for water-related infrastructure projects, water conservation projects, and emergency funding for Flint, Michigan, and other cities with contaminated water. The House passed legislation that proposes prohibiting the use of federal funding to transfer or release any individual detained at Naval Station, Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, which President Barack Obama vowed to veto. Closing the detention center is one of his priorities before he leaves office. Full coverage of this week’s legislation can be viewed here.

Monday, September 12

• Veto threat: Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said that he is confident his colleagues will override a promised veto from President Barack Obama of S 2040—the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA). Cornyn said, "This would be the first one under this president and I think it would be well deserved.” He added that it is "baffling that ... Obama would rather make life easier for state sponsors of terrorism than he would lend support to the families of 9/11." The legislation proposes allowing victims of terror attacks to sue countries that support terrorism, even if the country is not on a designated list of state sponsors of terrorism. The legislation would specifically allow the victims of the 9/11 terror attacks to sue Saudi Arabia. Fifteen of the 19 terrorists who carried out the September 11, 2001, attacks were Saudi nationals, but the Saudi government has denied having anything to do with the attacks.
  • The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued statements of condemnation concerning the JASTA. The head of the GCC said the law was "contrary to the foundations and principles of relations between states and the principle of sovereign immunity enjoyed by states," according to Reuters. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also issued condemnations of the bill. UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said in a statement, "Such laws will negatively affect the international efforts and international cooperation to combat terrorism."

• The House passed HR 5484—the State Sponsors of Terrorism Review Enhancement Act—by voice vote. The legislation proposes prohibiting the president from removing a country designated as a state sponsor of terrorism from the sponsor list until it has been verified that the country has refrained from sponsoring terrorism for 24 months. Current law requires a country to refrain from sponsoring terrorism for six months. Additionally, the president would be required to submit to Congress a report justifying the removal of a country from the sponsor list 90 days before the country is removed. Current law requires 45 days notice.

Wednesday, September 14

• Veto threat: The House passed HR 5226—the Regulatory Integrity Act of 2016—by a vote of 250-171. The legislation proposes requiring each executive agency make information about all pending regulatory actions an agency is considering available for public view online. The legislation also proposes preventing agencies from posting information on social media that does not directly relate to the substance or status of a rule. HR 5226 states that an agency “may not solicit support for or promote the action nor include statements of aggrandizement for the agency, any federal employee, or the action.”
  • The Obama administration threatened to veto the bill, saying that it would be "duplicative and costly to the American taxpayer" and "would provide little to no value while diverting agency resources from important priorities. If the president were presented with H.R. 5226, his senior advisors would recommend that he veto the bill.”

• The House passed HR 5620—the VA Accountability First and Appeals Modernization Act of 2016—by a vote of 310-116. The legislation proposes allowing “the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to remove or demote a VA employee based on performance or misconduct.” The legislation would make it easier for the VA secretary to reprimand or terminate employees for poor performance or improper behavior. The legislation also proposes eliminating all bonuses for VA senior executives through the 2021 fiscal year.

Thursday, September 15

• Key vote: The Senate passed S 2848—the Water Resources Development Act of 2016—by a vote of 95-3. The $9.4 billion package proposes providing funding for water-related infrastructure projects, water conservation projects, and emergency funding for Flint, Michigan, and other cities with lead-contaminated water.

• Key vote: The House passed HR 5351—To prohibit the transfer of any individual detained at United States Naval Station, Guantanamo Bay, Cuba—by a vote of 244-174. The legislation proposes prohibiting the use of federal funding to transfer or release any individual detained at Naval Station, Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
  • Veto threat: The Office of Management and Budget released the following statement explaining that President Barack Obama would veto the bill if it reaches his desk: “This bill represents an effort not only to extend the facility's operation — as have the other unwarranted legislative restrictions on transfers — but to bring to a standstill the substantial progress the administration has made in safely and securely reducing the facility's population. If the president were presented with H.R. 5351, his senior advisors would recommend he veto the bill.”

 

Congress is IN session	SCOTUS is NOT in session
The U.S. Senate will be in session Monday-Friday next week. The U.S. House will be in session Tuesday-Friday.	The Supreme Court is in recess until Monday, October 3. For a detailed breakdown of last term, see Ballotpedia’s Supreme Court end of term review, 2015.

What’s On Tap Next Week

Saturday, September 17

• Donald Trump will speak at a private event in Houston, Texas, for The Remembrance Project, a group that describes itself as an advocate “for families whose loved ones were killed by illegal aliens.”
• Gary Johnson will be in Seattle for a fundraiser and a public rally. The fundraiser is set at $1,000 per person and will be hosted by former Nirvana member Krist Novoselic and Price Is Right host Drew Carey. Two high-profile Republicans in Washington state who have publicly expressed opposition to Donald Trump have said they might consider supporting Johnson: Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Bryant and U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert.

• Hillary Clinton will give a speech at the annual Congressional Black Caucus Foundation awards dinner in Washington, D.C., where she will receive the Trailblazer Award in recognition of her becoming the first woman to receive a major party’s presidential nomination. U.S. Reps. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) and Marcia Fudge (D-Ohio) will also be honored.

Monday, September 19

• The Senate is expected to vote on a continuing resolution to fund the government. The short-term funding bill is expected to last through December 9. Congress must pass legislation to fund the government by October 1 in order to avoid a shutdown.

Wednesday, September 21

• The CEO of Mylan, Heather Bresch, the daughter of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin (D), will testify before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on price increases for its EpiPen product. EpiPens are used by those with severe allergies to treat anaphylactic shock. A pack of two EpiPens costs $600, six times higher than in 2004. The hearing is being held in the wake of public criticism over the price increases, which led Mylan to begin offering $300 coupons for EpiPen and selling a $300 generic version. The committee is also investigating ways to increase competition for EpiPen and quicken approval of generic alternatives and plans to also call the FDA’s deputy director at the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research to testify.

• Impeachment vote: The House was expected to hold a vote to impeach IRS Commissioner John Koskinen on Thursday, September 15, but House Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) agreed to postpone the vote. Jordan and Goodlatte agreed to hold a hearing on Wednesday, September 21, when Koskinen will testify before the Judiciary panel. The Freedom Caucus released the following statement after the agreement was reached: "The House Judiciary Committee will finally hold impeachment proceedings of IRS Commissioner John Koskinen next Wednesday. This hearing will give every American the opportunity to hear John Koskinen answer under oath why he misled Congress, allowed evidence pertinent to an investigation to be destroyed, and defied Congressional subpoenas and preservation orders." According to Politico, “Conservatives say Koskinen impeded a congressional investigation when subpoenaed documents related to the IRS-tea party controversy were destroyed on his watch. Koskinen says he had nothing to do with lower-level employees erasing backup tapes of emails written by Lois Lerner, the IRS official who led the department that singled out conservative groups seeking tax-exempt status.”
  • On Thursday, September 15, Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.) said he still intends to hold a vote on impeaching Koskinen after Wednesday’s hearing. He said, “It only takes one. We're going to have a vote next week. I would be very disappointed if they waited till November or December or next year.”

 

Where was the president last week?	Federal judiciary
On the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, President Barack Obama gave remarks at the Pentagon and observed a moment of silence for the victims. On Tuesday, Obama traveled to Philadelphia and New York City to give a speeches at events for Hillary for America, the DNC, and the DCC.	99 total federal judicial vacancies 62 pending nominations 14 future vacancies

Back to top for State, Local, and fact checks updates

State and Local

What's on tap?

Before diving into last Tuesday’s primary election results, we take a trip to Miami. The city is in hot water after having been found violating securities rules.

 

Highlights

Local

On Wednesday, September 14, Miami became the first city in the country to have been found violating securities rules on two separate occasions. A federal jury ruled that the city defrauded bond investors by playing shell games with the money in 2009. Investigators found that the city attempted to portray $153 million in bonds as a better investment than it was in practice. The city also transferred money for specific funds into its general fund to make the city’s finances appear more healthy. Mayor Tomas Regalado (R) transferred most of the funds back in 2010 after he was elected to the post in 2009. Regalado’s second term will end in 2017, but he cannot run for re-election due to term limits. Miami is the 44th-largest city in the United States by population and the second-largest city in Florida.

State

On Tuesday, September 13, four states held primary elections. In the Rhode Island primary, one-third of the incumbents challenged in the state primary election—six out of 18—were defeated. All six of these incumbents were Democrats. Rhode Island is one of seven Democratic trifectas, meaning the Democratic Party has control over the governorship, the state House, and the state Senate. Republicans will not be able to break this trifecta in November because not enough seats are vulnerable in either chamber. Learn more about last Tuesday’s primary election results below.

 

State

The Week in Review

Ballot measures update

• In 2016, 165 measures across 35 states have been certified for the ballot, and all but eight of those will be decided during the November election.
  • Seventy-four of the 165 measures certified this year are citizen initiatives. That is more than double the 35 citizen initiatives certified in 2014; in fact, this year features more citizen initiatives on the ballot than in any year since 2006. Low turnout in the 2014 elections likely contributed to more citizen initiatives being proposed and certified, as fewer total votes cast in 2014 led to a reduced signature burden in 2016 in many states.
  • By this time in 2014, the last statewide ballot measure had been certified for the ballot, with a total of 158 measures—including legislative referrals. No more certifications are likely to occur for the 2016 ballot.
• Eight statewide ballot measures have been decided so far in 2016. Seven were approved.
• There are no more state ballot measure elections before the November election.
  • The seventh and last pre-November ballot measure election occurred in Florida on August 30; voters approved Amendment 4, the only measure on the ballot.
• Ballotpedia has coverage of ballot measures going back to 1777.
  • Explore our data by year, by subject, or by state.

Monday, September 12

• Former California Assemblyman Tom Calderon (D) was sentenced to one year in prison for laundering money for his brother, former state Sen. Ronald Calderon (D). He allowed bribe money to be funneled through the Calderon Group, a political consulting company. Calderon will serve half of his sentence in prison and the other half under house arrest. Tom Calderon represented District 58 in the state Assembly from 1998 until 2002, when he was succeeded by his brother Ron.

• Moody’s Investor Service has placed New Mexico under review for a possible downgrade of its bond rating. New Mexico currently holds an Aaa bond rating, but state revenue has been lower than expected due to the downturn in the oil and gas industries. Moody’s claims the review is triggered by the state’s recently released revenue estimates, which show a reduction of $348 million in expected revenue in fiscal year 2016 and a $556 million reduction in fiscal year 2017. Moody’s noted in its press release that New Mexico has “a long track record of taking timely action to address budget shortfalls and to maintain adequate reserves” and that the state legislature is expected to convene this month to address the issue. In addition to and as a result of this review, the service also placed four New Mexico public universities under review for downgrades.

Tuesday, September 13

• State Rep. Jeremy Durham (R-65) was expelled from the Tennessee General Assembly in a 70-2 vote. Rep. Terri Lynn Weaver (R) and Rep. Courtney Rogers (R) were the only legislators to vote against the expulsion. Twenty other legislators abstained or were not present for the vote. It was the first time that a sitting member had been expelled from the legislature since 1980. He was expelled after the state attorney general's office released a report in July that found that Durham had inappropriate sexual conduct with 22 women affiliated with the legislature.

ELECTION NIGHT HIGHLIGHTS: The GOP gubernatorial primary in New Hampshire was narrowly decided; six incumbents were defeated in the Rhode Island legislative primary.

• Primary election: New Hampshire
  • State executives: Executive Councilor Chris Sununu narrowly won the New Hampshire Republican primary for governor; the race was not called until Wednesday afternoon. Sununu edged out state Sen. Frank Edelblut by about 1,000 votes—a margin of less than 1 percent. Edelblut was eligible to apply to the secretary of state for a recount by Friday at 5 p.m.; however, he conceded the race the same day the results were announced. Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern won the Democratic nomination; the two councilors will compete for the governorship in November. The race is rated as a Toss-up.
  • State legislature: In the state Senate, only one incumbent, Sharon Carson (R-14), faced a primary challenge. Carson defeated challenger Ludwig Haken (R). In Senate District 8, Ruth Ward (R) defeated Jim Beard (R) by only nine votes. Ross Terrio defeated two other candidates in District 18, with a margin of only 15 votes separating him from the second-place winner. In both of those districts, a recount may be requested. In the House, nine Republican incumbents were defeated in the primary election. Four of those nine lost in the election for Rockingham 6. A total of 124 incumbents faced challengers, meaning about 7 percent of the state’s challenged incumbents lost in the primary. New Hampshire currently has a divided government, having a Democratic governor (Maggie Hassan) but a Republican-controlled House and Senate. In order for the state to change to a Democratic trifecta, Democrats would have to overcome the Republicans’ four-seat majority in the Senate and 79-seat majority in the House. This is realistically possible, as the New Hampshire State Legislature has seen large swings in recent years.
• Primary election: Delaware
  • State executives: Three state executive offices are up for election. U.S Congressman John Carney was unopposed for the Democratic nomination for governor and automatically advanced to the general election. He will compete with state Sen. Colin Bonini—who won the Republican nomination—in the general election, which is rated Safe Democratic. State Sen. Bethany Hall-Long won the six-candidate race for lieutenant governor; she will face La Mar Gunn (R) in the general election. Democrats have held the seat since 1993.
  • Incumbent Insurance Commissioner Karen Weldin Stewart (D) lost the Democratic nomination to challenger Trinidad Navarro. Stewart has not historically been a party favorite; in 2012, the state Democratic Party endorsed a primary challenger, Mitch Crane (D), despite Stewart's incumbency, though she defeated him in the primary and went on to win the general election. Navarro will compete with business owner Jeff Cragg (R)—who won the Republican nomination—in November. While it is too late for Stewart to run in the general election as an independent and have her name appear on the ballot, she can file to run as a write-in candidate no later than September 30.

• • State legislature: In the Senate, there were only two primary contests, both in the Democratic Party. One incumbent, Darris McDowell (D-1), faced a challenger and won. In the House, there were seven primary elections, with incumbents facing challengers in five of them. No incumbents were defeated. Delaware is one of seven states under a Democratic trifecta, meaning the state has a Democratic governor as well as a Democrat-controlled House and Senate. Although possible, it is not likely that Republicans will take control of either chamber in the November general elections.
• Primary election: New York
  • State legislature: In the Senate, seven incumbents faced primary challengers, but none were defeated. All 63 seats are up for re-election in November. In the State Assembly, 27 incumbents faced primary challengers. Three Democratic incumbents were defeated: Margaret Markey (D-30), Alice Cancel (D-65), and Guillermo Linares (D-72). Incumbent Bill Nojay (R-133), who died on September 9, still appeared on the primary ballot in accordance with New York law. He won the election, meaning Republican leaders from the three jurisdictions that intersect his district were allowed to choose his replacement on the November ballot. They selected Joe Errigo (R), who previously represented HD 130. New York currently has a divided government, with a Democratic governor (Andrew Cuomo), a Republican-controlled Senate, and a Democrat-controlled House.
  • In order for the New York state government to change to a Democratic trifecta, Democrats would have to gain at least one seat to take the majority in the Senate. Republicans have the benefit of support from the Independent Democratic Conference, a five-member coalition of Democrats who have helped Republicans retain power in the Senate. If Democrats gain a majority in the Senate in November, it is not clear if IDC members will continue to aid Republicans.

• Primary election: Rhode Island
  • State legislature: In the Senate, six incumbents faced primary challengers. Two of those—Juan Pichardo (D) of District 2 and William Walaska (D) of District 30—were defeated by their opponents. In District 17, a primary was held in which four Democrats competed to challenge the unopposed Republican newcomer, Thomas Paolino, in November. Jina Petrarca-Karampetsos (D) won and will challenge Paolino for an open seat last held by a Republican. In the House, 12 incumbents faced primary opposition. Four more Democratic incumbents were defeated, including House Majority Leader John DeSimone. In District 13, Ramon Perez (D) defeated two primary opponents and will proceed to the general election in November, where Perez will compete for an open seat last held by a Democrat. In total, one-third of the incumbents challenged in the Rhode Island primary election—six out of 18—were defeated. All six of these incumbents were Democrats. DeSimone and Jan Malik from House District 67 were targeted by a mailer sent out by an anti-gun violence group.

• The New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance ordered health insurer Health Republic Insurance of New Jersey, one of 23 co-ops established under the Affordable Care Act, to close at the end of 2017. Regulators made the decision to shut down the co-op due to the $46.3 million it owes to the federal government under the risk adjustment program. The 35,000 enrollees insured by the co-op will need to find new coverage during open enrollment this fall. The co-op’s exit will leave two insurers offering plans on New Jersey’s health insurance exchange, down from five in 2016. Only six co-ops remain in operation nationwide.

• The Kansas Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a lawsuit against a bill passed by the legislature in 2014 that repealed teacher tenure in the state. The Kansas National Education Association argued that the measure had been attached to an appropriations bill, violating a provision in the state constitution that prohibits passing bills dealing with multiple topics. Solicitor General Stephen McAllister countered that the bill did not violate the constitution because it did deal with one topic—education—and that the constitution exempts appropriations bills from the rule. He also argued that the teachers union did not have standing to sue because it failed to show that any teachers had been harmed by the bill. A lower court had found that the union did have standing to sue, but dismissed the case after finding that the bill did not violate the state’s constitution.

• U.S. District Judge Linda Parker officially confirmed that the Michigan Marijuana Legalization and Regulation Initiative will not be on the November 2016 ballot, denying a motion for a temporary restraining order on ballot printing. Plaintiffs filed the motion in an effort to get the initiative printed on the ballot despite an ongoing lawsuit challenging the 180-day time frame given for signature collection, requesting that the time limit be overturned and the initiative added. A Michigan Court of Claims judge found the time frame to be constitutional, and both the Michigan Court of Appeals and Michigan Supreme Court declined to hear arguments. Attorney Jeffrey Hank, chairman of the initiative’s support campaign group, MILegalize, has filed a request for the United States Supreme Court to take on the case.
  • A dozen initiatives in Michigan were filed with state officials for circulation, including several separate marijuana legalization initiatives and an initiative designed to ban fracking, but none of them qualified for the ballot.

Wednesday, September 14

• Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin (R) appointed Judge Barbara Swinton to the Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals, Oklahoma’s intermediate appellate court. Judge Swinton succeeds Judge William Hetherington, who retired on September 2. Judicial selection in Oklahoma occurs through assisted appointment; the governor makes an appointment from a list prepared by a judicial nominating committee. Judge Swinton’s initial term will expire in January 2019; she must stand for retention by voters in 2018 if she wishes to remain on the bench after her initial term. Twelve judges sit on the Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals; before this appointment, the balance of the court stood at an 8-4 majority of Democratic-appointed judges. Judge Swinton’s appointment brings the balance to a 7-5 majority of Democratic-appointed judges.

• The Tennessee General Assembly adjourned its three-day special session. The special session was called by Gov. Bill Haslam (R) to repeal a DUI bill that threatened to remove $60 million in federal funding. Last month, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration notified state officials that unless they complied with federal law, they would lose funding. During this year’s regular session, the legislature passed a DUI law that did not comply with the federal “zero tolerance” drunk driving statute because it raised the blood alcohol content (BAC) limit for 18- to 20-year-olds to 0.08 and added tougher penalties for violators. The federal “zero tolerance” law sets the BAC limit to 0.02 for all drivers under 21. During the special session, the DUI bill was repealed and the BAC limit was returned to the old 0.02 for drivers under 21. The special session cost taxpayers $25,000 a day. ​

• Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell signed the first phase of the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan, which affects land use across 10 million acres of public lands in California. This plan sets aside 388,000 acres of Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land for renewable energy development. The BLM estimated that this land could house enough renewable energy projects to generate 20,000 megawatts of renewable electricity. The plan also sets aside 3.8 million acres for recreation and 5.3 million acres for conservation. David Lamfrom from the National Parks Conservation Association called the plan a major improvement on the status quo. Solar energy industry groups have argued that more land should be opened for renewable energy development. This plan comes on the heels of new legislation in California requiring the state to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Supporters of the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan have said the plan will help California meet its emission reduction goals.

• The Iowa Supreme Court heard arguments on a lawsuit from Des Moines Water Works, a water supplier to roughly 500,000 residents, against agriculture drainage districts in three Iowa counties. The lawsuit accused farmers in central Iowa of contaminating rivers in central Iowa with nitrates from crop fertilizer. Water Works said it spent $1.5 million in 2015 to remove nitrate from water in order to meet federal standards. Water Works has argued that the agriculture drainage districts in the three counties should not have immunity from lawsuits and that the districts should pay monetary damages. According to the Associated Press, the lawsuit could “overturn a century of legal precedent that has protected drainage systems from lawsuits” if the court sides with Water Works. Additionally, Water Works has argued that drainage districts should be forced to comply with the federal Clean Water Act, which would require the districts to hold federal permits, monitor their water, and limit contaminants in the released water. The Iowa Farm Bureau Federation has offered to help pay the legal fees of the three counties.

• New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R) signed a bill expanding the list of conditions that can be treated with medical marijuana in the state. Effective immediately, residents may now use medical marijuana to treat post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The bill had been strongly backed by veterans in the state.

• The Missouri General Assembly convened a one-day veto session to override Gov. Jay Nixon’s (D) 23 vetoes from the previous session. Altogether, the Republican-backed legislature overturned 13 of Nixon’s vetoes. Two of the most contentious veto overrides involved voter ID and concealed weapons permits. The House voted 115-41 and the Senate voted 24-7 to override a veto on a bill that would require Missouri voters to show government-issued photo ID before they vote. The legislature also overturned a veto that would require training and permit requirements to carry a concealed weapon. The Senate voted to override the governor’s veto in a 24-6 vote, and the House concurred in a 112-41 vote. Gov. Nixon is the most overridden governor in the state’s history. Including Wednesday's veto session, Nixon has had 96 vetoes overridden. With both chambers controlled by Republicans and the governor’s office held by Democrat Jay Nixon, Missouri is one of 20 states under divided government.

Thursday, September 15

• Connecticut Attorney General George Jepsen announced that the state will appeal a ruling from Superior Court Judge Thomas G. Moukawsher that ordered an overhaul of the public education system. The judge gave the state 180 days to revise its system of school funding, establish tougher graduation requirements, and create new teacher evaluation metrics. Although Jepsen agreed that there are “profound educational challenges that remain” and urged the legislature to act “without delay,” he argued that the ruling exceeded the court’s authority. The case will be appealed to the Connecticut Supreme Court.

• Kansas officials are attempting to identify voters affected by a September 10 court ruling blocking the state, along with Georgia and Alabama, from requiring proof of citizenship from people registering to vote using a federal form. Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach said the state’s voter database does not differentiate between registrations via federal or state form, so officials must physically go through the paperwork of those who tried to register since January. The ruling came from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, which reversed the ruling of the lower court. Under the appeals court’s ruling, Kansas can no longer require people to show proof of citizenship when registering using the federal form and must allow anyone who registered after January 29 to vote regardless of whether they provided proof of citizenship.

 

What’s On Tap Next Week

Monday, September 19

• Opening arguments begin in the trial against Bridget Anne Kelly—former aide to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R)—and Bill Baroni, the former deputy executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. Jury selection began last week. Kelly and Baroni were indicted on nine charges in April 2015, including conspiracy to commit fraud, over allegations that the two conspired with former Port Authority executive David Wildstein to purposely create traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge. The traffic jams were allegedly intended as retaliation against the mayor of Fort Lee, New Jersey, for declining to endorse Christie's 2013 re-election bid. Wildstein pleaded guilty to two charges of conspiracy in January 2015; both Kelly and Baroni have maintained their innocence.

• Governor Christie has also denied any involvement, stating that the employees acted alone and without his knowledge. However, Wildstein's lawyer has publicly stated that there is evidence that Christie did have prior knowledge of the plan. Christie told reporters in August 2016 that he would testify if subpoenaed; it is unclear if he will. Christie is term-limited from running for re-election in 2017.

 

State government in session

Two states—Michigan and New Jersey—are in regular session; Ohio is in a skeleton (non-voting) session. Massachusetts is in an informal session.

• Skeleton session: In a typical skeleton session, a clerk, a presiding officer, and another legislative member are the only people present. The presiding officer will convene the session day and adjourn it minutes later. Lawmakers who live more than 50 miles from the statehouse can deduct lodging and meal expenses on their federal income tax forms for each day the legislature is in skeleton or regular session.
• Informal session: In an informal session, no attendance is taken and only a few members attend the session. These sessions address day-to-day business and non-controversial bills. The bills do not require debate or a roll-call vote, and they must be passed unanimously. If one member objects, the measure is blocked.

Two states are in recess:

• PA until 9/19
• CA until 11/30

The following states have adjourned their regular sessions:

• AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MO, MN, MS, NC, NE, NM, NH, NY, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY

Four states have no regular sessions in 2016:

• MT, ND, NV, TX

All states whose initials appear in red or blue in the above list have unified Republican or Democratic Party control across the state house, the state senate, and the office of the governor. Ballotpedia identifies these as “trifectas.” There are seven Democratic and 23 Republican trifectas.

State government special elections

As of this week, 46 seats have been filled through legislative special elections in 2016. Nine involved party changes: four from Republican to Democratic (Oklahoma, SD 34; Massachusetts, HD Twelfth Essex; Kentucky, HD 62; and New Hampshire, HD Rockingham 21), three from Democratic to Republican (Texas, HD 118; Minnesota, HD 50B; and New York, SD 9), one from Democratic to independent (Texas, HD 120), and one from Republican to independent (Louisiana, HD 85). Another 10 (not including runoff elections) have been scheduled in seven states. An average of 37 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past three even years (2010: 26, 2012: 45, and 2014: 40).

Last week:

• Alabama state legislative special elections:
  • In House District 79, Joe Lovvorn defeated three candidates in the Republican primary to advance to the special election on November 29. He will face Libertarian candidate Gage Fenwick in the special election. The seat was previously represented by Mike Hubbard (R).
• Mississippi state legislative special elections:
  • In House District 72, Debra Gibbs defeated Synarus Green in the runoff election. Candidates in Mississippi special elections run without party labels, but both candidates are registered Democrats. The seat was previously represented by Kimberly Campbell Buck (D).
• On September 13, 2016, Jerry Clark (R) was appointed to District 29C in the Maryland House of Delegates by Gov. Larry Hogan (R). He was appointed to replace Anthony O'Donnell (R), who was appointed by Gov. Hogan to the Maryland Public Service Commission. It is unclear when Clark will be sworn in to the chamber.

Local

The Week in Review

2016 elections

• In 2016, Ballotpedia is covering municipal elections across 46 of America's 100 largest cities by population, local judicial elections across all 39 states holding elections, school board elections across 643 of America's 1,000 largest school districts by student enrollment, all local ballot measures in California, and notable measures across the United States.
  • So far this year, Ballotpedia has covered 27 city elections, 28 states with local judicial elections, 298 school board elections, and 162 local ballot measures in California. Ballotpedia will be covering all of the approximately 450 local California measures on the ballot in November.
• Most elections, including local elections, are held during spring and fall months. Summer and winter months contain relatively few elections and filing deadlines.

Monday, September 12

• Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) nominated a new member to the Los Angeles Police Commission. The nominee was Shane Murphy Goldsmith, a social change activist. Goldsmith was nominated to replace Kathleen Kim, a three-year member of the commission who resigned to focus on her professional career. The commission is a civilian oversight panel that oversees the operations of the Los Angeles Police Department and has an inspector general that audits the police on the commission’s behalf. If confirmed, Goldsmith would be the third new commissioner added to the five-member panel in 2016. Los Angeles is the second-largest city in the United States by population and the largest in California.
• The Cleveland City Council voted to put a minimum wage measure before voters in May 2017. If approved, the law will set the city’s minimum wage at $12 on January 1, 2018, and then increase it by $1 per year until it reaches $15. The city’s current minimum wage is $8.10. Cleveland is the 48th-largest city in the United States by population and the second-largest in Ohio.
• New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D) signed a bill banning firearms from certain city recreational facilities and imposing fines on individuals who fail to report lost or stolen firearms. The measure drew the attention of the National Rifle Association, who called the new law “misguided and potentially unlawful.” Landrieu had initially pushed for more regulations, but Louisiana law prohibits local law from imposing more stringent gun restrictions than exist in state law. New Orleans is the 51st-largest city in the United States by population and the largest in Louisiana.
  • Click here to read more about preemption conflicts between state and local governments.

Tuesday, September 13

• Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) announced that the Los Angeles Rams would assume the cost of all security officers at football games. Prior to this announcement, the Rams paid for in-stadium security officers, while the city paid for any officers outside of the stadium. Without this agreement, the city would have paid more than $2 million over the course of the season. The University of Southern California has a similar agreement for its football games, although USC is not expected to assume all the costs as the professional team has agreed to do. The city’s budget for the 2016-2017 fiscal year amounted to $8.75 billion in expenditures. Los Angeles is the second-largest city in the United States by population and the largest in California.
• Led by Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton (D), a coalition of more than 75 mayors from across the country petitioned Congress for increased funding to combat the Zika virus. Senior Republican lawmakers and officials believe a vote could take place soon on a $1.1 billion funding package for that purpose. Delays to a vote occurred because of contentious Planned Parenthood funding that had been inserted into the bill. In a press release, the group said that “September is peak mosquito season, and your communities are counting on you.”
  • Click here to read the responses of presidential candidates to the Zika virus.
• New York held a primary election for 10 local judicial offices across the state. None of the 19 candidates who competed in the primaries were incumbents. New York’s fusion-style voting meant that candidates could run for the nomination on multiple party ballots. This led to candidates who were primarily running as a Democrat or Republican vying for the nominations of many minor parties as well. Winners of these primaries will compete in the general election on November 8, 2016.
• In Washington state, Superior Court Judge Blaine Gibson dismissed a recall petition against Spokane Mayor David Condon. Gibson ruled that there was insufficient evidence of malfeasance or misfeasance in the four charges brought by Spokane resident David Green. Green filed a petition seeking Condon's recall due to allegations that the mayor withheld information during an investigation of Police Chief Frank Straub. State law requires a recall petition to show proof of malfeasance or misfeasance before signature gathering is initiated.
• In Colorado, organizers of a recall against Castle Rock Councilwoman Renee Valentine withdrew their question from the November ballot. Valentine was initially targeted for recall over her opposition to an initiative allowing public votes on land annexations. Valentine was one of three council members targeted for recall in 2016, but only one member (Paul Donahue) faced a vote, which was unsuccessful.

Wednesday, September 14

• The Chicago City Council approved a tax on water and sewer bills in order to raise money for the Municipal Employees Pension Fund. The measure passed the council by a 40-10 vote, and the taxes will go toward a pension fund that is projected to be insolvent by 2025. The taxes are scheduled to increase over a four-year period up to 29.5 percent. Once they reach their expected level, these taxes are anticipated to cost the average homeowner an additional $225 per year. Chicago is the third-largest city in the United States by population and the largest in Illinois.
• James Moylan, who was appointed by Philadelphia Mayor James Kenney (D) to lead the city’s Zoning Board of Adjustments, resigned. The move came three weeks after the FBI raided Moylan’s home in connection to an ongoing investigation into the city’s electricians union. Kenney appointed Moylan to chair the five-member panel in February 2016. Moylan worked as a political consultant for the Local 98 chapter of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers prior to the appointment. Philadelphia is the fifth-largest city in the United States by population and the largest in Pennsylvania.
• The Austin City Council approved a $3.7 billion budget for the next fiscal year. The property tax rate on the new budget will be nearly two cents lower per $100 valuation. The city’s budget for the previous fiscal year was $3.5 billion. Austin is the 11th-largest city in the United States by population and the fourth-largest in Texas.
• Police officers in Washington, D.C., must now confirm with dispatch officers that their body cameras are on prior to accepting a call. The change comes after the fatal shooting of a motorcyclist was not caught on film by the officer who committed the shooting. Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) said that the officer in question did not turn on his body camera until after the shooting. In 2013, less than 25 percent of 500 police departments surveyed stated that they were using body cameras. Washington, D.C., is the 23rd-largest city in the United States by population.
  • Click here for more information about the use of police body cameras in the United States.
• In California, all five members of the Maywood City Council and the clerk were served with recall petitions at their meeting. Most of those in attendance came to discuss the city’s plan to change the zoning laws to allow marijuana dispensaries. Although several residents criticized the zoning change, the council approved the dispensaries. The recall attempts are targeting both the majority and minority on the city council by supporters of both sides. Maywood is a city of 27,000 people in Los Angeles County.

Thursday, September 15

• Corpus Christi council member Mark Scott resigned from his position and announced his intent to run for mayor in 2018. Scott would have termed out at the end of 2016 after nearly eight years of service on the council. Mayor Nelda Martinez (D) is running for re-election this year and will face challenger Dan McQueen in the general election on November 8, 2016. Corpus Christi is the 60th-largest city in the United States by population and the eighth-largest in Texas.

 

What’s On Tap Next Week

Tuesday, September 20

• Arkansas will hold general elections for 10 seats in six of the state’s largest school districts. Any race in which a candidate does not receive a majority of the vote will have a runoff election on October 11, 2016. The six districts served 85,040 K-12 students during the 2012-2013 school year, which was 14.79 percent of all public school students in the state.

 

Back to top for Federal and fact checks updates

Fact Check

Fact Check by Ballotpedia

Federal fact checks

• Fact check: Did Sen. Richard Burr vote to cut Social Security? U.S. Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) is running for a third term; he is being challenged by Democrat Deborah Ross. At an August 4 event, Ross sought to make the case that Burr posed a threat to Social Security. "He has voted to cut Social Security," Ross was quoted as saying by The Fayetteville Observer. Is Ross’ claim accurate? No. The votes cited by the Ross campaign were procedural measures that had no direct effect on Social Security funding or benefits.
• Fact check: Are the claims made by Ruben Kihuen’s campaign about Congressman Cresent Hardy’s record on immigration issues accurate? We reviewed Hardy’s record, and David Chase, Kihuen’s campaign manager, is correct about Hardy co-sponsoring a Nevada Assembly bill that would have designated English as the state’s official language. However, Hardy was not in Congress when the immigration bill Chase cites was under consideration. Lastly, the Kihuen campaign provided Ballotpedia with three examples in support of Chase’s claim that Hardy engaged in fear-mongering about immigrants taking jobs. In two of the examples, Hardy says immigrants fill jobs that others no longer want. The third example is an exchange between Hardy and a reporter about the work permit provision of Deferred Action for Parents of U.S. Citizens and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA).

State and local fact checks

• Fact check: Did state budget cuts in Texas cause an increase in pregnancy-related deaths? A study in the journal Obstetrics and Gynecology reported a dramatic increase in pregnancy-related deaths in Texas, and some health advocates blame changes in funding for women’s health services for the increase. But the study concluded it wasn’t possible to determine a reason for the increase, which began months before the changes in funding took effect.

 

Read the latest fact checks.

Back to top for Federal, State and Local updates

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Ballotpedia wants to keep you in the know. In this weekly newsletter, we let you know the important things that happened last week in the federal, state and local levels of government, as well as what you should look for this week. The Tap covers election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events—everything you need to stay up-to-date on American politics. A summary of the in-depth, nonpartisan content that is added to Ballotpedia every week is now available in this digestible format for free to anyone who wants to be informed.

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