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The Tap: Sunday, October 9, 2016

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The Tap covered election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events from February 2016 to February 2022.

Review of the day

The excerpts below were compiled from issue #38 of The Tap, which was published on October 15, 2016. READ THE FULL VERSION HERE.

Federal

  • The second presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump took place Sunday night in St. Louis, Missouri. The debate came on the heels of two major revelations on Friday: a tape of Trump making comments about women—comments that have been described as “extremely lewd” and suggestive of sexual assault—and a Wikileaks release of a batch of emails from key members of the Clinton campaign that appear to include excerpts from Clinton’s paid Wall Street speeches. Both revelations came up in the debate in addition to policy issues such as healthcare, taxes, energy, foreign affairs, and the Supreme Court. The debate was moderated by Martha Raddatz of ABC News and Anderson Cooper of CNN. An estimated 66 million viewers tuned in, close to 20 million less than the record-setting 84 million who watched the first debate on September 26. Ballotpedia’s coverage included an Insiders Poll, statistical analysis, and commentary written by Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute and Ballotpedia senior writer Jim Barnes. The third and final debate takes place on October 19, 2016, in Las Vegas, Nevada.
    • Insiders Poll: After the October 9 debate concluded, Ballotpedia surveyed more than 150 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest group operatives, finding that an overwhelming majority of these Democratic Insiders thought Clinton had a good night. At the same time, a majority Republicans thought Trump did well too. Among the 79 Democratic Insiders who responded, a whopping 86 percent declared Clinton the “biggest winner” of the night. Another 13 percent called the debate a draw, and 1 percent (one Democratic Insider) said that Trump had captured the evening. This is very consistent with how they viewed the outcome of the first face-off between Clinton and Trump. But the 80 Republican Insiders had a different view: Almost two-thirds—63 percent—thought Trump got the better of Clinton in the clash on Sunday night. After the first debate, only 32 percent of the GOP Insiders thought Trump was the biggest winner and a plurality—38 percent—even gave the edge to Clinton. Sunday night, 19 percent of the Republicans thought the debate was a draw and another 19 percent thought Clinton won.



    • Stats: Although Donald Trump accused the moderators of not giving him an equal amount of time to respond to Hillary Clinton, both candidates spoke for approximately 39 minutes. Trump also said approximately 1,000 more words than Clinton. Half of the discussion segments related to presidential temperament, character, and fitness. Only one-sixth of the debate's discussion segments were focused on foreign affairs or national security, and during those segments, the three most frequently mentioned countries were Russia, Syria, and Iraq. Several politicians and high-profile individuals were named more than once throughout the debate, including First Lady Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, and Captain Humayun Khan. President Barack Obama and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were mentioned most frequently.
    • Commentary: Karlyn Bowman argued that neither candidate did much to help their causes, writing, “Trump didn’t seem to do more damage to his campaign although that is a low bar. Clinton didn’t enhance her appeal. Both have serious weaknesses and they were visible once again last night.” Jim Barnes commented on the debate’s uniqueness in the history of American politics, noting, “There hasn’t been a presidential debate like the one that took place on Sunday night. Donald Trump decided to become a one-man wrecking ball on the debate stage at Washington University in St. Louis.”
  • The Columbus Dispatch, which has traditionally backed Republican presidential nominees, endorsed Hillary Clinton. "For us, the choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is not pleasant, but it isn’t difficult. Republican candidate Donald Trump is unfit to be president of the United States. Democrat Hillary Clinton, despite her flaws, is well-equipped for the job," the editors wrote.
  • Navy Captain Jeff Davis said that the U.S. was considering retaliatory measures after two missiles were fired at the USS Mason. Both of the missiles missed the Mason and landed in the Red Sea. According to The Hill, “Officials say the missiles came from territory controlled by the Houthis, Iran-supported rebels who ousted the Yemeni government from its capital, Sanaa, in September 2015.” Davis added, "It's no secret that Iran has been supplying them with the tools of war.”

Local

  • Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez (R) said he would vote for Hillary Clinton (D) and called for Donald Trump (R) to drop out of the race. Gimenez, who is running for re-election this year, was criticized during his primary campaign for his ties to Trump. The mayor played golf with Trump in 2014 to discuss the nominee taking over a country club, and Gimenez’s son has done lobbying work for a local resort owned by Trump. “I’m not going to endorse anybody. But between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, I’m not voting for Donald Trump. Obviously, I must be voting for Hillary Clinton,” Gimenez said on a Sunday morning talk show at WFOR. Gimenez faces Raquel Regalado (R) in the general election on November 8. Miami-Dade County is one of 17 counties covered by Ballotpedia.

Preview of the day

The excerpts below were compiled from issue #37 of The Tap, which was published on October 8, 2016. READ THE FULL VERSION HERE.

Federal

  • The second presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump takes place Sunday night. Ballotpedia’s coverage will include an Insiders Poll, statistical analysis, and commentary written by guest writers. Here’s everything you need to know before the action starts:
    • The debate starts at 9 pm Eastern Time. Like the first debate, it will run 90 minutes, commercial-free.
    • The venue is Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri.
    • Moderating the debate will be Martha Raddatz of ABC News and Anderson Cooper of CNN.
    • The format is a town hall. The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) said in a statement, “The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which half of the questions will be posed directly by citizen participants and the other half will be posed by the moderator based on topics of broad public interest as reflected in social media and other sources. The candidates will have two minutes to respond and there will be an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate further discussion.”
    • On October 4, 2016, the CPD announced that Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein were not invited because they did not meet the 15 percent polling average threshold required by the CPD. In a statement, the CPD said that its board of directors had "determined that the polling averages called for in the third criterion are as follows: Hillary Clinton (44.8%), Donald Trump (40.8%), Gary Johnson (7.4%) and Jill Stein (2.6%). Accordingly, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump qualify to participate in the October 9 debate. No other candidates satisfied the criteria for inclusion in the October 9 debate. The criteria will be reapplied to all candidates in advance of the third presidential debate."
    • What’s at stake? Clinton experienced a considerable bump in national and state polls following the first debate. On the day of the debate, Real Clear Politics' national polling average had Clinton at less than 2 percentage points above Trump—43.1 to 41.5—in a four-way race including Johnson and Stein. By October 5, 2016, her lead had grown to almost four points. On top of this, she padded leads in key battleground states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia and actually took the lead—as of October 5—in Florida, where Trump had led in the days leading up to the debate. Clinton's goal, therefore, will be to maintain or increase her lead in the polls, while Trump's goals are to halt her momentum and begin turning the tide in his favor.
    • More than 80 million people tuned in to the first debate, a record in the history of presidential debates. In the past, viewership of second debates has come close to or even exceeded the viewership of first debates. In 2008, 52.4 million watched the first debate between John McCain (R) and Barack Obama (D), but 63.2 million watched the second. In 2012, 67.2 million watched the first debate between Mitt Romney (R) and Obama, while 65.6 million watched the second.
    • The second presidential debate takes place less than one month before the general election.
    • The third and final debate will take place on October 19 in Nevada.




The Tap covered election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events from February 2016 to February 2022.
March: 21 • 22 • 23 • 24 • 25 • 26 • 27 • 28 • 29 • 30 • 31
April: 1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7 • 8 • 9 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13 • 14 • 15 • 16 • 17 • 18 • 19 • 20 • 21 • 22 • 23 • 24 • 25 • 26 • 27 • 28 • 29 • 30
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June: 1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7 • 8 • 9 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13 • 14 • 15 • 16 • 17 • 18 • 19 • 20 • 21 • 22 • 23 • 24 • 25 • 26 • 27 • 28 • 29 • 30
July: 1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7 • 8 • 9 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13 • 14 • 15 • 16 • 17 • 18 • 19 • 20 • 21 • 22 • 23 • 24 • 25 • 26 • 27 • 28 • 29 • 30 • 31
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September: 1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7 • 8 • 9 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13 • 14 • 15 • 16 • 17 • 18 • 19 • 20 • 21 • 22 • 23 • 24 • 25 • 26 • 27 • 28 • 29 • 30
October: 1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7• 8 • 9 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13 • 14 • 15 • 16 • 17 • 18 • 19 • 20 • 21 • 22 • 23 • 24 • 25 • 26 • 27 • 28 • 29 • 30 • 31
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