Become part of the movement for unbiased, accessible election information. Donate today.

The Tap: Twenty-five presidential debates

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search


October 22, 2016Issue No. 39

The Tap Graphic-750x191px.png

The week in review: October 15 - October 21
What's on Tap next week: October 22 - October 28

Navigate The Tap by clicking the tabs below:

Federal

What's on tap?

A total of 25 presidential debates took place throughout 2015 and 2016. There were 21 primary debates—nine for the Democrats and 12 for the Republicans—three general election presidential debates, and one vice presidential debate. Ballotpedia covered all of them, going all the way back to August 6, 2015, when 10 candidates for the Republican nomination gathered on a stage in Cleveland, Ohio. Our coverage has included basic overviews, profiles of the moderators, Insiders Polls, statistical analyses, and commentary written by guest writers and members of our senior writing staff. To revisit any of the debates from 2015-16, visit our debates archive.

The third and final debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump took place in Las Vegas, Nevada, Wednesday night. The candidates covered a range of issues, including the Supreme Court, the Second Amendment, abortion, immigration, Russia, Iraq, Syria, national debt, and the economy, just to name a few. The event was moderated by Chris Wallace of Fox News. He was the first Fox News anchor to moderate a general election debate. An estimated 71.6 million people watched the debate, more than the 66 million who watched the second debate but fewer than the record-setting 84 million who watched the first debate. Ballotpedia’s coverage included an Insiders Poll, statistical analysis, and commentary written by our guest writers, Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute and David Kusnet of the Podesta Group.

  • Insiders Poll: Ballotpedia surveyed more than 100 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest group operatives after the conclusion of the debate and found that an overwhelming majority of Democratic Insiders thought the former secretary of state emerged as the victor, while Republican Insiders were evenly divided on whether Trump or Clinton was the “biggest winner” of the night.
  • Stats: For the first time in a 2016 general election debate, presidential temperament and fitness was not the dominant theme of the night. Half of the discussion segments related to domestic and economic affairs. Although Clinton spoke longer than Trump—41.8 minutes to 35.7 minutes, by Bloomberg’s estimate—they said nearly the same number of words. Clinton spoke 6,849 words and Trump spoke 6,531 words. President Barack Obama was the most frequently mentioned individual, with 18 references. The Affordable Care Act, Obama's signature healthcare initiative, was also mentioned seven times. Iraq, Syria, and Russia were the most frequently mentioned foreign nations.
  • Commentary: Karlyn Bowman, a public opinion analyst at AEI, focused on Trump’s response during the debate to a question about whether he would accept the results of the election. When asked, Trump said, “I will tell you at the time, I will keep you in suspense.” Bowman noted that in the first Republican debate, Trump made a similar statement when he refused to pledge to support the eventual GOP nominee. Bowman stated, “Whether that first answer to the first debate question of the 2016 presidential election season in Columbus contributed to Trump’s eventual victory is a matter of conjecture. But last night’s response, and the attempts by his supporters in Las Vegas post-debate interviews to walk it back, didn’t help him.” David Kusnet, who served as chief speechwriter for former President Bill Clinton, also discussed Trump’s comments about election results, saying, “Trump should have been prepared for a question about whether he would respect the election results. If he wanted to offer a more nuanced response than an unconditional ‘yes,’ he could have said that he would accept the outcome under ordinary circumstances, but not if there were close and contested results as in 2000.” Preparation, Kusnet added, “means being ready to respond to likely questions and counterpunches, not just memorizing your own talking points.”
  • See also: Presidential debate at the University of Nevada (October 19, 2016)
 

Federal

The Week in Review

Saturday, October 15

  • Donald Trump’s campaign cut ties with Ohio GOP state chairman Matt Borges. Trump’s state director in Ohio, Robert Paduchik, said in a letter, “Chairman Borges does not represent or speak for the candidate and he no longer has any affiliation with the Trump-Pence campaign.” Borges has reportedly been critical of Trump since the release of a 2005 tape of the Republican nominee making lewd comments about women. In an interview shortly after the tape’s release, Borges said that he was unsure if he would vote for Trump and called his comments in the tape “indefensible.” Ohio is a key battleground state in the 2016 presidential election. An average of polls in Ohio from September 18 to October 15 shows Trump in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton. No Republican candidate for president has ever won a general election without winning Ohio.
  • In response to reports that the FBI had prevented a plot to bomb a Kansas apartment complex whose residents were Somali immigrants, Hillary Clinton said in a statement, “I applaud law enforcement for detecting and disrupting a highly disturbing terror plot in Kansas, in which men were allegedly planning an elaborate attack directed at Muslim Americans, including directing four car bombs at an apartment complex housing more than 100 men, women, and children. This plot is an affront to all Americans. We all must stand firm in fighting terror and rejecting hateful and divisive rhetoric–and we must do it together."

Sunday, October 16

  • Tim Kaine campaigned at a church in Miami, Florida, where he became the first member of a presidential ticket to deliver a speech entirely in Spanish. "He introduced himself, discussing his time in Honduras as a missionary, and noting Clinton's faith as a Methodist. The Virginia senator encouraged parishioners to vote, emphasizing the responsibility to participate politically in accordance with Christian values, and reminded them of the October 18 registration deadline," CNN reported.
  • The Wisconsin State Journal endorsed Hillary Clinton. "Trump’s scandal-a-day campaign has shown he would distract, isolate and embarrass our nation. The world doesn’t need a United States in retreat, nor a stark reset of America’s politics and international posture. The world needs a U.S. president who can actually lead. Clinton is that leader, and the world needs America to get this right," the editors wrote.
  • Iraqi forces launched their effort to regain control of Mosul—Iraq's second-largest city—from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in a statement, "The United States and the rest of the international coalition stand ready to support Iraqi security forces, peshmerga fighters and the people of Iraq in the difficult fight ahead. We are confident our Iraqi partners will prevail against our common enemy and free Mosul and the rest of Iraq from ISIL's hatred and brutality." According to Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, the U.S. will provide "air support, artillery, intelligence, advisors and forward air controllers” and “will continue to use precision to accurately attack the enemy and to minimize any impact on innocent civilians."

Monday, October 17

  • According to interview notes released by the FBI regarding its investigation of Hillary Clinton's private email server, Undersecretary of State for Management Patrick Kennedy attempted to have one of the emails declassified as part of a "quid pro quo" arrangement with an FBI official interested in increasing aid to station FBI agents overseas in sensitive areas. Another interview, however, indicated that it was an FBI employee who suggested he would "look into the email matter" if Kennedy "would provide authority concerning the FBI's request to increase its personnel in Iraq." Both the FBI and the State Department denied that there was a "quid pro quo" arrangement.
  • An FBI agent who worked for both Secretaries of State Condoleezza Rice and Hillary Clinton said that Clinton “blatantly” disregarded security protocols in an interview conducted during the FBI’s investigation of Clinton’s private email server. According to the FBI’s interview notes, the agent indicated that Clinton would arrive at diplomatic functions with her top adviser, Huma Abedin, rather than ambassadors "who were insulted and embarrassed by this breach of protocol.” The FBI notes also revealed that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich connected a Senate staffer and third party with Judicial Watch, a conservative watchdog group, on a project to determine if Clinton's email server had been hacked. Ultimately, Judicial Watch spent $32,000 searching for evidence online, eventually turning over materials found in the private investigation to the FBI.
  • Donald Trump’s campaign announced a $2 million ad buy in Virginia as well as a new leadership team in the state. Last week, NBC News reported that the campaign was pulling ground staff from Virginia and shifting its focus to Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. Also last week, Trump’s Virginia campaign co-chairman, Corey Stewart, was fired after staging a protest outside the headquarters of the Republican National Committee. Trump’s state operations are now overseen by Mike Rubino, and the campaign added Mark Kevin Lloyd as state director after Thomas Midanek was relocated to another state. Recent polling in Virginia has shown Hillary Clinton with leads ranging from 3 to 15 points. An average of polls in the state from September 15 to October 14 shows Clinton leading by 7.7 points. Barack Obama won the state in 2012 by 4 points.
  • USA Today reported that at least a dozen companies that contributed to Clinton family foundations also lobbied the State Department using lobbyists who were Clinton campaign fundraisers. These companies, which include Microsoft, Pfizer, ExxonMobil, Northeast Maglev, and Azteca, donated $16 million to Clinton charities. Karen Hobert Flynn, the president of the watchdog group Common Cause, said, “When you couple all of these activities together, it gives an unseemly appearance that this was another way for Clinton foundation donors to try to get what they wanted." She continued, "I don’t see any quid pro quos. But I do think these are sophisticated lobbying operations by Clinton foundation donors trying to leverage Department of State support for whatever their pet projects are.”
  • At a campaign event in Wisconsin, Trump unveiled a five-point plan for government ethics reform. The plan includes a five-year ban on lobbying for all executive branch officials and former members of Congress and their staffs. The plan also expands the definition of “lobbyist,” permanently bans senior executive branch officials from lobbying on behalf of a foreign government, and seeks to prohibit registered foreign lobbyists from “raising money in American elections.” According to prepared remarks, Trump introduced the plan by saying, “If we let the Clinton Cartel run this government, history will record that 2017 was the year America lost its independence. We will not let that happen. It is time to drain the swamp in Washington, D.C. That is why I am proposing a package of ethics reforms to make our government honest once again.”
  • In Virginia, Gary Johnson discussed what kind of justice he would appoint to the Supreme Court if elected president. He said, “With regard to Supreme Court justices, it would be an issue of justices ruling on the basis of original intent of the Constitution. I think that Judge [Clarence] Thomas has probably been at the forefront of the kind of a judge that I would like to appoint.”
  • Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook announced that the campaign planned to spend $9 million on House and Senate races in 10 battleground states to bolster the Democratic Party's chances of victory. Mook said that $2 million would be invested in Arizona, $1 million in Indiana and Missouri, and $6 million across Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire.
  • A CNN/ORC poll of North Carolina’s Senate race showed incumbent Richard Burr (R) leading challenger Deborah Ross (D) 48-47. The state’s Senate race is one of the closest Senate battlegrounds in the country. The same poll showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 50-48 in a head-to-head race.
  • Siamak Namazi, an Iranian-American business consultant, and Baquer Namazi, Siamak’s 80-year-old father, “were sentenced to 10 years in prison for unspecified charges related to collaborating with hostile governments,” in Iran, according to Foreign Policy. After the U.S. and five world powers signed the nuclear deal with Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, warned against allowing Westerners to “infiltrate” Iranian culture and business. According to Foreign Policy, “The stiff punishment for the Namazis seems to indicate that Iran’s hardliners, unhappy with steps to open up to Western business, may be cracking down on Iranians with ties to the West to express their displeasure, and perhaps to use as leverage for a new prisoner swap or to extract more economic benefits from the United States.” The State Department has called for their release.
    • Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) criticized the Obama administration’s handling of the Iran nuclear deal and the imprisonment of the Namazis, saying, “Such increasingly belligerent behavior towards the United States is hardly surprising, given the Obama administration’s countless concessions to Iran made in pursuit of its dangerous deal.”
  • Radio personality Howard Stern spoke out about Donald Trump’s appearances on his show in the last two decades. Stern stated that the decision to have Trump as a guest was made because Trump brought entertainment value to his audience. On his show, Stern said, “Donald Trump did the show in an effort to be entertaining and have fun with us. … I fully knew what I was doing when I interviewed Trump. I knew I had a guy who loved to talk about sex.… I had a guy who loved to evaluate women on a scale of 1 to 10. These are avenues I went down because I knew it would entertain the audience.”
  • The Democratic Coalition Against Trump, part of the anti-Donald Trump super PAC Keep America Great PAC, officially filed a treason complaint against Trump ally Roger Stone. The group alleged that Stone had advance knowledge of Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta’s email hack and that he “and the campaign have been working with a foreign government to influence an American election.” In August, Stone announced that he had been in contact with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange and promised an “October surprise,” saying, “Well, it could be any number of things. I actually have communicated with Assange. … I believe the next tranche of his documents pertain to the Clinton Foundation but there's no telling what the October surprise may be.”
    • Podesta himself accused Stone of having advance warning of the hack on October 15, saying, “I think it’s a reasonable assumption to — or at least a reasonable conclusion — that Mr. Stone had advance warning and the Trump campaign had advance warning about what [WikiLeaks publisher Julian Assange] was going to do … I think there’s at least a reasonable belief that Mr. Assange may have passed this information onto Mr. Stone.”
    • In an interview with Politico last Friday, Stone said he would be “happy to cooperate” with the FBI “if they decided to call me.” He further defended himself on Wednesday in an opinion piece for Breitbart News, writing, “I had no advance notice of Wikileaks’ hacking of Podesta’s e-mails. I didn’t need it to know what Podesta has been up to. I do not work for any Russian interest. I have no Russian clients. I have never received a penny from any public or private entity or individual and that includes Russian intelligence. None. Nada. Zilch."
  • The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced that 408,870 people were apprehended by the Border Patrol along the country’s southwest border, between ports of entry, in Fiscal Year (FY) 2016, an increase over FY15. According to DHS, “Apprehensions are an indicator of total attempts to cross the border illegally. Meanwhile, the demographics of illegal migration on our southern border has changed significantly over the last 15 years – far fewer Mexicans and single adults are attempting to cross the border without authorization, but more families and unaccompanied children are fleeing poverty and violence in Central America. In 2014, Central Americans apprehended on the southern border outnumbered Mexicans for the first time. In 2016, it happened again.” DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson called for improvements in border security and comprehensive immigration reform. He wrote, “For one thing, we must reckon with the millions of undocumented immigrants who live in the shadows in this country, who’ve been here for years, and who should be given the opportunity to come forward and get right with the law. It is my profound hope that the next Congress will finally address this and other issues, and enact comprehensive immigration reform.”
  • The U.S. Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan and independent agency supervised by the U.S. Congress, released a report concluding that several cities in the United States face financial problems that could lead to drinking water situations similar to the crisis that affected Flint, Michigan, in 2016. The report found that approximately 15 percent of U.S. midsize and large cities have declined in population in the last 30 years; these cities often have higher poverty rates and less economic stability, which may reduce city revenues and require higher water rates to fund infrastructure, a situation similar to what occurred in Flint before the city’s drinking water crisis. The report emerges in the midst of a political debate over the federal government’s role in maintaining drinking water quality and water infrastructure, which are commonly state and local responsibilities. In September 2016, the U.S. House and Senate passed their versions of the Water Resources Development Act, which would direct approximately $5 billion to water infrastructure programs, including $170 million in aid to Flint, though Congress is not expected to reconcile the two bills until after the November 8, 2016, election.

Tuesday, October 18

  • Conservative activist James O'Keefe released two videos purporting to show Democrats engaging in fraudulent campaign tactics to support Hillary Clinton. In the videos, party operatives appear to discuss encouraging violence at Donald Trump rallies and busing people across state lines to vote. As a result of the videos, one temporary Democratic subcontractor was terminated and a DNC vendor relinquished his position. Asked to comment on the story, Clinton said, "I know nothing about this. I can't deal with every one of his conspiracy theories." TIME noted that “O’Keefe has previously spliced videos together to imply its subjects were saying things they were not."
  • At a campaign event in Colorado, Donald Trump announced plans to propose a constitutional amendment on term limits for members of Congress. Trump said, “If I’m elected president I will push for a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress.” Trump added at another event in Colorado that his plan includes a six-year limit (three terms) for members of the House and a 12-year limit (two terms) for members of the Senate. While there are currently no term limits for members of Congress, legislators in 15 states are subject to term limits. A Gallup poll from January 2013 found that three-quarters of Americans supported term limits for members of Congress.
  • The Clinton campaign spent $100,000 on advertising in Texas—a state no Democrat has won since 1976—in the Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio markets. Erik Potholm, a Republican media consultant, said, "It takes millions of dollars to drive a single message across those markets. If they are running $100k in those cities, it’s just a media hit, not designed to actually move voters."
  • Seventy Nobel laureates endorsed Hillary Clinton, writing in a joint letter, "We need a president who will support and advance policies that will enable science and technology to flourish in our country and to provide the basis of important policy decisions.”
  • Ecuador, which granted asylum to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at its embassy in London, acknowledged that it has "temporarily restricted" Assange's access to the internet. "The foreign ministry said that while it stands by its 2012 decision to grant Assange asylum based on legitimate concerns he faces political persecution, it respects other nations’ sovereignty and doesn’t interfere or support any candidate in foreign elections," the Associated Press reported.
  • Speaking at an event in Virginia, Gary Johnson said that his 2016 presidential run will be his last bid for elected office. “This is my last attempt at elected office. I ran as a Republican in New Mexico, a state that's two-to-one Democrat, embracing the notion of less government. But I'm with the Libertarian Party. It's growing by leaps and bounds, and I think it's the logical replacement for the Republican Party,” said Johnson. Johnson was the Libertarian Party presidential nominee in 2012 and served as the governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003.
  • A Quinnipiac University poll of Florida’s U.S. Senate race released Tuesday showed incumbent Marco Rubio (R) leading challenger Patrick Murphy (D) 49-47. Rubio has consistently led by single digits since his entry into the race. Florida is one of nine U.S. Senate battlegrounds in 2016.
  • Speaking with Boston Herald Radio, Trump campaign co-chair Sam Clovis discussed Trump's claims of widespread voter fraud. Clovis said that large numbers of illegal immigrants were registering and voting with fraudulent documents. He said, "I’ve done a lot of work and study in this area, so here’s what happens: you have the opportunity for illegal immigrants to come to the state, and the state loosens its laws to provide for individuals to get driver’s licenses in the state, illegal or otherwise. ... Then, through fraudulent documentation, because you've used fraudulent documents to achieve a status in this country, then you are able to register to vote because you've established residency. And people are no longer interested in whether you are a citizen and eligible to vote. The fact of the matter is, you're a resident and they assume you're eligible to vote."
  • In response to an executive order issued by President Barack Obama, the Department of Transportation (DOT) announced a series of executive actions that will “spur competition in the airline industry -- and improve air travel for millions of American consumers. These actions will help consumers know how airlines are performing, make sure consumers don’t have to pay for services they don’t receive, and help consumers find the best flight options,” according to a White House press release. The new reporting requirements, listed below, will take effect January 1, 2018, and the other regulations will take effect 30 days after the changes are published in the Federal Register. DOT released the following actions:
    • Requiring refunds for delayed baggage;
    • Expanding the number of U.S. carriers required to report information to DOT about their on-time performance, oversales, and mishandled baggage rates;
    • Requiring airlines to report data for flights operated by their domestic code-share partners;
    • Requiring airlines to report their total number of mishandled bags and total number of checked bags;
    • Prohibiting undisclosed bias by airlines and online ticket agents; and
    • Requiring airlines to report on how often they mishandle wheelchairs.
  • Researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey and Colorado State University published a paper arguing that oil and natural gas development have contributed to a decline in sage grouse populations. The paper, which was published in The Journal of Western Management, found that sage grouse populations fell 14 percent annually between 1983 and 2008 in areas with at least 10 oil or natural gas wells per square mile, while sage grouse populations were stable in areas with no wells. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which oversees endangered and threatened species, declined to list the sage grouse as endangered under the Endangered Species Act in 2015. To prevent further decline in sage grouse populations, the federal government implemented land use regulations limiting energy development and grazing on federal land. Supporters of listing the species as endangered, such as the Center for Biological Diversity, have argued that full federal protection under the Endangered Species Act, including limits on energy production, is needed to prevent the species from going extinct within the next several decades. Opponents of listing the species have argued that state and local conservation efforts have been effective at preventing the species’ decline.
  • Ballotpedia held a webinar on election policy conflicts and the 2016 elections. View the recording here.


Wednesday, October 19

  • The Trump campaign launched six new television ads in battleground states and on national television stations. One ad features a woman talking about how her son was killed by an undocumented immigrant. She says, “Hillary Clinton's border policy is going to allow people into the country just like the one that murdered my son.” Another ad focuses on Trump’s economic policy proposals. A man wearing a hardhat states, “I think Donald Trump cares about the working man, because the working man has made him what he is.”
  • Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin has taken the lead over Trump and Clinton in Utah, according to an Emerson College poll. The poll showed McMullin, a graduate of Utah’s Brigham Young University, at 31 percent to Trump’s 27 percent and Clinton’s 24 percent. The Emerson polls comes shortly after the release of a Rasmussen poll showing Trump narrowly leading the field with 30 percent to McMullin’s 29 percent and Clinton’s 28 percent. On October 20, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, changed Utah’s 2016 rating from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.” The state started out earlier in the election cycle as “Safe Republican.” If McMullin ends up winning Utah on November 8, he will become the first non-Democrat or non-Republican presidential candidate to win any state since 1968.
  • The United States has accused Russia of having missile technology that is banned by the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF Treaty, “an agreement Washington and Moscow signed in 1987 to eliminate land-based nuclear and conventional missiles with ranges from 500 to 5,500 kilometers, as well as their launchers,” according to The Wall Street Journal. In return, Russia has accused the U.S. of violating the treaty by activating the Aegis Ashore missile defense system in Romania and by using armed drones. The charges will be discussed in front of the treaty’s Special Verification Commission in the coming weeks. State Department spokesman John Kirby said, “The United States continues to seek to resolve Russia’s noncompliance with the INF Treaty. Our bilateral engagements on this issue with Russia have been unsuccessful. An available mechanism to address our concerns is the treaty’s implementation mechanism—the Special Verification Commission.”
  • According to CNN, the Clinton campaign believes Arizona, a typically red state, has a better chance of being flipped than Georgia or Texas. "Arizona's population growth is heavily Latino, and non-profit groups working in the state for years have registered many of those Latinos to vote. The state also has a younger population and a relatively large number of colleges -- making it easier to reach large pools of millennial voters," CNN reported. Chelsea Clinton, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and first lady Michelle Obama campaigned for Clinton in the state this week. The campaign has also invested $2 million in television ads in Arizona.
  • Jill Stein said in an interview that the United States was "on the verge of nuclear war right now" with Russia. She continued, "[F]rom Russia’s point of view, they’ve been encroached upon, there have been missiles that have surrounded them now. And this has been going on for years. Now there are war games going on and exercises, and our negotiations have absolutely broken down. And both sides are moving their missiles in for exchange. So to my mind, this is the Cuban Missile Crisis in reverse, on steroids." She advocated engaging Russia on nuclear disarmament and said that "it’s us who’s been slamming the door on nuclear disarmament progress."
  • The U.S. Health and Human Services Department (HHS) predicted that a total of 13.8 million people would select an ACA exchange plan or re-enroll during the open enrollment period this fall. This would be an increase of 1 million compared to the number of people who selected a plan during the 2015 open enrollment period. The agency also predicted that effectuated monthly enrollment (i.e., those who select a plan and pay their first month’s premiums) would average at 11.4 million people in 2017, as those who do not pay their first month’s premiums are not officially enrolled. Other outside analysts have predicted slower growth or a drop in exchange enrollment. This year’s open enrollment begins on November 1, 2016, and ends on January 31, 2017.
  • Ballotpedia held a webinar on energy and environmental policy conflicts and the 2016 elections. View the recording here.

Thursday, October 20

  • At a campaign event in Ohio, Donald Trump said he would accept the results of the November 8 election if he wins. “I would like to promise and pledge to all of my voters and supporters and to all of the people of the United States that I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election – if I win,” said Trump. He went on to add, “If Al Gore and George Bush had agreed three weeks before the election to concede the results and waive their right to a legal challenge or a recount, then there would be no Supreme Court case. I’m being asked to waive centuries of legal precedent designed to protect the voters. … Of course I would accept a clear election result, but I would also reserve my right to contest or file a legal challenge in the case of a questionable result. … I will follow and abide by all of the rules and traditions of all of the many candidates who have come before me.” At the third presidential debate on Wednesday, when asked if he would accept the election's results, Trump said, “I will tell you at the time, I will keep you in suspense.”
  • Trump’s campaign spent $70 million in September, according to a report from The Washington Post. In August, his campaign spent $30 million. He had 168 paid staff, which is an uptick from August, when he had 131 paid staff. Trump spent roughly $20 million on digital consulting and online ads, $23 million on tv ads, and $5 million on voter data. Trump entered October with $34.7 million cash on hand.
  • In September, the Clinton campaign spent $66 million on advertising, nearly triple the amount the Trump campaign did. In total, her campaign and two joint fundraising committees spent $95 million. Clinton started October with $59 million cash on hand.
  • Trump national political director Jim Murphy distanced himself from the Trump campaign but did not resign. He told Politico, "I have not resigned but for personal reasons have had to take a step back from the campaign." Murphy did not elaborate.
  • Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump attended the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner, helping to raise a record $6 million for Catholic charities providing services to children in New York. The dinner, which has become a tradition in presidential politics over the past five decades, brings the two major party candidates together one final time before the election to crack lighthearted jokes about each other and themselves. Although both candidates' speeches were initially met with laughter, Trump was booed for saying that Clinton was "pretending not to hate Catholics" at the event, based on one of the email exchanges released by WikiLeaks, and accusing Clinton of being "corrupt." Clinton joked about Trump accepting the "peaceful transition of power" between their speeches and rating the Statue of Liberty a four.
  • Ballotpedia held a webinar on healthcare policy conflicts and the 2016 elections. View the recording here.

Friday, October 21

  • According to emails released by WikiLeaks, Hillary Clinton was considering attending a Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) summit in Morocco in May 2015 because Moroccan King Mohammed VI pledged $12 million to support the program if she did so. Although Clinton was not secretary of state at the time of the event, the Clinton Foundation had previously received criticism for accepting money from foreign governments. Clinton ultimately declined to attend the event after it was revealed that OCP, a Moroccan export firm whose directors included top Moroccan government officials, were also planning to contribute $1 million to the event.

 

Congress is NOT in session SCOTUS is IN session
Congress is in fall recess until November 13, 2016. The Supreme Court is between argument sessions. The court will continue to issue orders throughout the session break and will next hear arguments on Monday, October 31.

What’s On Tap Next Week

All week

Monday, October 24

Tuesday, October 25

  • U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and Governor Maggie Hassan (D) will debate in one of Ballotpedia’s battleground races. NHPR/Business and Industry Association will host the radio debate. It will be the fourth of six debates.
  • Join Ballotpedia's trifectas webinar as our experts discuss the 18 states that could see changes to their trifectas after the election. A trifecta occurs when there is no divided government because one political party holds the governorship, a majority in the state senate, and a majority in the state house. The concept of the trifecta is important in state lawmaking because in many states, the governor, senate majority leader, and house majority leader play decisive roles in the legislative process. Holding a trifecta means that political party can more easily make policy changes or reforms. Register to learn about trifectas, trifectas plus (an even more potent situation because it takes into account the political leanings of the state supreme courts), and the potential changes in trifectas across the 50 states.

Wednesday, October 26

  • Gerald Rosen, a judge on the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan, will assume senior status. Judge Rosen’s elevation creates an Article III judicial vacancy on the court. As an Article III position, Judge Rosen’s successor must be nominated by the president, and that nomination is subject to the advice and consent of the U.S. Senate. Under current law, the Eastern District of Michigan has 15 active judicial positions. Judge Rosen’s elevation to senior status will create the only current vacancy on the court.
  • U.S. Senate election in Florida: Sen. Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) will debate in one of Ballotpedia’s battleground races. It will be hosted by Leadership Florida and the Florida Press Association. It will be the second of two debates.
  • Join Ballotpedia's state legislative battlegrounds webinar as we discuss how Republicans have the most to lose this November as they campaign to keep their hold on battleground chambers. Republicans control almost twice as many battleground chambers as Democrats do—13 chambers to 7 chambers, respectively. Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers, out of the 86 state legislative chambers with 2016 elections, where one party might, realistically, topple the other party from its current position of majority control. Register to learn which states are battlegrounds, which chambers could flip this election, and how much money is being spent to flip or to prevent flipping.


Thursday, October 27

  • U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and Governor Maggie Hassan (D) will debate in one of Ballotpedia’s battleground races. NH1 will air the debate live. It will be the fifth of six debates.
  • Join Ballotpedia's Congressional legislative battlegrounds webinar as our expert reviews Senate battleground races. Ballotpedia identified eight competitive Senate elections out of the 34 total races. Republicans are more vulnerable to losing seats in the Senate during this election, due to the fact that Republicans hold more seats that are up for re-election. Of the eight most competitive Senate seats in the country, five are held by freshman Republicans who were first elected in the tea party wave of 2010 and are facing their first re-election bid in 2016. Register to learn more about how Republicans are expected to fare in the 2016 elections and how competitive House races are expected to turn out.

2016 Presidential battleground states

In 2016, 12 states and two congressional districts will decide the outcome of the presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. In electoral votes, that comes to 159, more than half of the 270 votes needed to win an electoral college majority and become president. Clinton, however, needs slightly fewer of these battleground states' electoral votes than Trump to get to 270. To win, she needs only 70 of the 159 electoral votes up for grabs in the battlegrounds, while Trump needs 91. Below are current polling averages for all 12 battleground states and the second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska (Maine and Nebraska award their electoral votes proportionally). They are broken down by states where Clinton is leading, states where Trump is leading, and states where a candidate leads by 1 percentage point or less. Ballotpedia's polling averages are based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might cover all polls that were released for a state between September 15, 2016, and October 15, 2016. For more on presidential battleground states, click here. In the next two weeks, Ballotpedia will be taking a closer look at these states in a series of articles written by Ballotpedia Senior Writer Jim Barnes. Keep up with our battleground state coverage by subscribing to our morning updates, Ballotpedia’s Daily Brew.

  • See also: Presidential battleground states, 2016
  • States where Clinton is leading by more than 1 percentage point
    • Arizona, 11 electoral votes, (9/28 - 10/18): Clinton 42; Trump 40.3; Johnson 6.5; Stein 2.2
    • Colorado, 9 electoral votes, (9/22 - 10/16): Clinton 42.6; Trump 38.4; Johnson 8.7; Stein 3.2
    • Florida, 29 electoral votes, (9/16 - 10/16): Clinton 45.6; Trump 42.7; Johnson 4.3; Stein 1.6
    • Michigan, 16 electoral votes, (9/18 - 10/18): Clinton 45.3; Trump 36.4; Johnson 8.3; Stein 2.7
    • Nevada, 6 electoral votes, (9/18 - 10/17): Clinton 44.2; Trump 41.4; Johnson 6.9
    • New Hampshire, 4 electoral votes, (9/25 - 10/19): Clinton 44.1; Trump 37.1; Johnson 9.3; Stein 3.3
    • North Carolina, 15 electoral votes, (9/18 - 10/17): Clinton 44.3; Trump 42.8; Johnson 6.8
    • Pennsylvania, 20 electoral votes, (9/19 - 10/19): Clinton 46.1; Trump 39.8; Johnson 5.4; Stein 2.4
    • Virginia, 13 electoral votes, (9/15 - 10/14): Clinton 43.8; Trump 36.1; Johnson 9.3; Stein 1.5
    • Wisconsin, 10 electoral votes, (9/19 - 10/16): Clinton 45; Trump 38; Johnson 6.2; Stein 2
  • States where Trump is leading by more than 1 percentage point
    • Iowa, 6 electoral votes, (9/6 - 10/6): Clinton 38.8; Trump 41.2; Johnson 8.6; Stein 2
    • ME-2, 1 electoral vote, (9/15 - 10/9): Clinton 38; Trump 43.2; Johnson 10; Stein 3
    • NE-2, 1 electoral vote, (9/25 - 9/26): Clinton 40; Trump 49
  • States where a candidate leads by 1 percentage point or less
    • Ohio, 18 electoral votes, (9/22 - 10/19): Clinton 43.7; Trump 43; Johnson 6.1; Stein 1.7

 

Where was the president last week? Federal judiciary
President Barack Obama welcomed Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to the White House on Tuesday. The state dinner that was held during the visit was the final one of the Obama administration.  
  • 105 total federal judicial vacancies
  • 65 pending nominations
  • 17 future vacancies

Back to top for State, Local, and fact checks updates

State and Local

Highlights

Local

Across Minnesota, 60 percent of all local elections are unopposed. Statewide, hundreds of races for mayor, city council, and city clerk have no candidates running for election. The search for a city treasurer candidate in the Twin Cities suburb of Minnetonka Beach highlights the potential effects of the candidate shortage. As a charter city, Minnetonka Beach cannot legally operate without a sitting treasurer. If no one is written in for treasurer on the ballot, the city may be forced to shut down. In the small town of Tenstrike, no residents are running for mayor or either of two open seats on the city council. According to a University of Minnesota political science professor, the lack of interest in local politics may be the result of democratic fatigue—the number of elections held in the state exceeds the capacity of citizens to participate in the democratic process. Other officials and experts say the demands of modern life prevent people from pledging personal time for low-profile positions. They cite long commutes, family commitments, and low-stakes politics as reasons that local positions do not draw candidates. Minnesota League of Cities Director Dave Unmacht said he isn’t concerned about the low candidate numbers. Instead, he is urging a conversation about building future leadership capacity, especially among elementary school children.

State

On Monday, October 17, Politico reported that billionaire and Democrat Tom Steyer scheduled a series of meetings with union leaders across California and is funding a $13 million voter registration drive, fueling speculation that he may make a bid for the governorship in 2018. Governor Jerry Brown (D), elected in 2010, will be prevented by term limits from running for re-election. In 2016, Steyer has invested $25 million in a millennial voter registration initiative in battleground states that is also supported by the AFL-CIO and the American Federation of Teachers. He has also been a key backer to certain California ballot measures this year—most notably in support of Proposition 56, which would raise the state's cigarette tax. Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom (D) and State Treasurer John Chiang (D) have officially declared their candidacies for the Democratic nomination; other potential candidates include former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), current Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D), and former Controller Steve Westly (D). California is one of seven Democratic trifectas.

 

State

The Week in Review

Ballot measures update

  • In 2016, 163 measures across 35 states have been certified for the ballot. Eight were decided earlier in the year; the other 155 will go before voters in November.
    • Two initiatives in Arkansas, Issue 4 and Issue 5, were removed from the ballot by the Arkansas Supreme Court. These measures concerned additional casinos in the state and a cap on medical malpractice awards.
    • Issue 6, one of the two competing medical marijuana measures on the ballot, was also subject to a lawsuit but was left on the ballot by the Arkansas Supreme Court’s decision.
    • Over 205 million Americans will be affected by the results of ballot measure elections in November.
    • Seventy-two of the 163 measures certified this year are citizen initiatives, while five are veto referendums. That is more than double the 35 citizen initiatives certified in 2014—in fact, this year features more citizen initiatives on the ballot than in any year since 2006. Low turnout in the 2014 elections likely contributed to more citizen initiatives being proposed and certified, since fewer total votes cast in 2014 led to a reduced petition signature burden in 2016 in many states.
  • At least $744.8 million has been spent on the supporting and opposing campaigns for ballot measures so far in 2016.
    • About $698.3 million of this total—94 percent—was spent on campaigns surrounding the 72 citizen initiatives rather than the legislative referrals.
    • Support campaigns have raised $443.8 million, while opposition campaigns have raised just over $300 million.
    • About $467 million has been raised by campaigns for the 17 ballot measures in California, with three-quarters of that money spent on the top four propositions.
  • Ballotpedia has coverage of ballot measures going back to 1777.

Saturday, October 15

  • U.S. Senator and former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders rallied crowds in California to support Proposition 61. The initiative addresses prescription drug prices and, if approved, would regulate drug prices by requiring state agencies to pay the same prices that the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs pays for prescription drugs. In his statements, Sanders called the pharmaceutical industry “a major health hazard to the American people” and urged that it was time to “stop the greed, stop the lying, stop the profiteering. Stop charging the American people, by far, the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs.” Proposition 61 is one of the ballot measures supported by Sanders’ nonprofit advocacy group, Our Revolution.
    • Click here to read about the major influencers of California’s ballot measures in 2016.

Sunday, October 16

  • Colorado state Sen. Ellen Roberts (R-6) announced her resignation, effective December 31, 2016. She is resigning to spend more time with her family and to focus on her law practice. She has served in the state Senate since her election in 2010. Before her election to the state Senate, she served in the state House from 2007 to 2011. Roberts’ resignation and the 2016 election will bring about leadership changes in the state Senate. Roberts currently serves as president pro tempore, and Senate President Bill Cadman (R-12) is term-limited. A vacancy committee made up of other legislators will decide on the replacement for the remainder of her term. Representative Don Coram (R) was identified by the Colorado Independent as being a likely replacement for her. Colorado currently has a divided government. Republicans control the state Senate by one seat, while Democrats maintain control over the governor’s office and the state House by three seats. The state Senate has been identified by Ballotpedia as one of 20 battleground chambers in the 2016 elections.

Monday, October 17

  • Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval (R) signed a bill approving the construction of a stadium intended to be the future home of the Oakland Raiders and the University of Nevada Las Vegas football teams. The bill was approved over the weekend during a special legislative session. After this approval, other groups, such as developers and NFL officials, will debate whether to approve the move, as well as select the final location for the stadium.
  • The American Civil Liberties Union filed a suit in federal court against the state of Georgia. The ACLU argued that state officials should reopen voter registration in seven counties affected by Hurricane Matthew: Chatham, Bryan, Camden, Glynn, Liberty, and McIntosh counties. The original voter registration deadline was October 11, 2016. Kathleen Burch, interim counsel for the ACLU, said, "The state’s failure to extend the voter registration deadline, despite the massive disruptions caused by Hurricane Matthew, means that thousands of Georgians will be prevented from participating in the November election. This is unethical and illegal." In response, Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) dismissed the ACLU suit as a partisan effort: "This is a nakedly political stunt to manipulate the system and squander state and county resources days before the election. In a desperate, last-minute attempt at relevance, the ACLU is spoon-feeding the liberal media exactly what it wants and forcing their agenda on the American people."
  • The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of West Virginia ruled against the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and in favor of Murray Energy Corp., a coal mining company, in a case involving potential job losses in the coal industry as a result of EPA regulations. Judge John Preston Bailey, appointed by former President George W. Bush (R), sided with Murray Energy Corp., which argued that the EPA did not provide an estimate of the potential job losses caused by the agency’s regulations as required by the Clean Air Act. Judge Bailey ordered the EPA to file a plan and a schedule that would show how and when the EPA would evaluate the impacts of its regulations. Judge Bailey wrote that the Clean Air Act gives the EPA “a non-discretionary duty” to track job losses and shifts in employment “continually” as the agency writes and implements Clean Air Act regulations. Bailey criticized EPA officials for arguing that its duty was discretionary rather than mandatory. According to Politico, the ruling is not expected to alter existing regulations. Bob Murray, the company’s president, praised the ruling, saying the decision was “a great day for coal miners” and citizens who “rely on low-cost electricity in America.” The Sierra Club, an environmental advocacy group, argued the lawsuit was a distraction from “the real reasons” behind the coal industry’s decline, such as “bad business decisions and increased competition from cleaner, more affordable energy sources.”

Tuesday, October 18

  • In Louisiana, a Baton Rouge judge struck down an executive order issued by Governor John Bel Edwards (D) earlier in 2016 preventing state contractors from discriminating against employees based on sexual orientation. Edwards had filed a lawsuit against state Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) in September 2016 over the attorney general's refusal to comply with the order. The judge ruled that Edwards' order did not comply with state law; a spokesman for the governor's legal team stated that they planned to appeal the decision to the Louisiana First Circuit Court of Appeal. Louisiana currently has a divided government; Edwards' election in 2015 ended a five-year Republican trifecta.
  • The Democratic candidate for governor of Utah, Mike Weinholtz, called for the legalization of medical marijuana at a press conference after his wife, Diana, pleaded guilty to charges of misdemeanor marijuana possession. Weinholtz stated that his wife suffered from arthritis and degenerative spinal disease and preferred to use marijuana to treat her pain rather than risk developing an addiction to prescription painkillers. "What would you do if the person you love most in the world was faced with that decision?" asked Weinholtz at the press conference. The healthcare executive will compete with incumbent Governor Gary Herbert (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. The race is rated "Safe Republican." Utah is one of 23 Republican trifectas.
  • The Nevada secretary of state released this year’s third batch of campaign finance reports, covering June through mid-October 2016, for ballot measures committees. The final campaign finance reports for Nevada 2016 ballot measures will be released on January 15, 2017.
  • California state regulators at the Water Resources Control Board released a report concluding that the state government should leave more water in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta to mitigate population declines in the delta’s native species, including the delta smelt, a fish species that has been listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act since 1993. Each year, approximately half of the delta’s water is diverted to farmland and cities; these areas include two-thirds of California’s population and 3 million acres of farmland. The report recommended leaving more water in the delta for at least three seasons each year for the smelt and other native species. If implemented, the board’s recommendations could result in less available water for farms and cities, though the report did not specify how much water should be kept in the delta. The recommendations could also interfere with Gov. Jerry Brown’s (D) proposal to spend $15.7 billion on water tunnels that would carry water from the delta to other parts of the state. The Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental advocacy group, supports leaving more water in the delta. The California Farm Bureau Federation, an agricultural group, criticized the board’s recommendations. The federation’s president stated, “They tell you if we put more water in the river it'll be better for the fish. I don't buy that for a second.”
  • An audio recording of a political consultant was leaked in which he said that the solar-related Florida Amendment 1 was designed to appear solar-friendly, while its purpose was to ensure fees on third-party solar producers are allowed. The audio was recorded at the October 2 State Energy/Environment Leadership Summit, and Sal Nuzzo, vice president of the James Madison Institute (JMI), a Florida-based policy think tank, was the speaker. Nuzzo discussed how the Amendment 1 support group, Consumers for Smart Solar, asked JMI to help prepare for the amendment campaign. Nuzzo indicated that the measure was designed to appeal to solar-friendly voters while also being designed to “completely negate anything they (pro-solar interests) would try to do either legislatively or constitutionally down the road.” Nuzzo referred to the move as a “savvy maneuver,” and said that utilities could use “political jiu-jitsu” to use the popularity of solar to their advantage. Robert McClure, executive director of the James Madison Institute, responded by releasing a statement saying that Nuzzo misspoke and that “JMI has never worked with or received funding from Consumers for Smart Solar.”
    • Polls show support for Amendment 1 ranging from 64 percent to 84 percent, with the most recent support percentage six points above the 60 percent supermajority approval necessary to pass an amendment in Florida.
  • Ballotpedia held a webinar on election policy conflicts and the 2016 elections. View the recording here.

Wednesday, October 19

  • Prison reform in the state of Michigan is believed to be gathering “widespread, bipartisan support” according to an article published on MLive, a Michigan news website. In particular, Governor Rick Snyder (R) and former state representative Joe Haveman (R) advocated for changes that are often associated with the Democratic Party, such as developing ways to address “root societal causes” for crime and criminal behavior. The article stated that Michigan is a “leader in locking up its own citizens,” costing about $2 billion per year. The article also highlighted three particular facets of criminal justice that were identified by both parties as areas in need of reform:
    • 1: Prisoner re-entry, or easing the transition from prison life back into normal society.
    • 2: Sentencing, specifically reducing sentences for nonviolent offenses such as “writing bad checks” or “breaking into parking meters.”
    • 3: Elderly prisoners, or enabling ways for elderly prisoners (who are not deemed dangerous to society) to end their sentences early.
  • Iowa Republicans are outspending Democrats by nearly 70 percent in four races for the Iowa State Senate. Democrats currently have 25 seats in the Senate to the Republicans’ 23. There is currently one vacant seat most recently held by the late Joe Seng (D) and one seat held by independent David Johnson. Among the seats targeted by the Republican Party is the seat for District 34, currently held by Liz Mathis (D). Republicans provided more than $242,000 to the campaign of Rene Gadelha (R), compared to the $44,000 provided to Mathis by the Democratic Party. In the other races, Republicans have spent an average of $289,000 to the Democrats’ average of $172,000. In total, 25 of the Senate’s 50 seats are up for election this year. If Republicans are able to take the Senate, they are expected to become a state government trifecta.
    • Join Ballotpedia's trifectas webinar as our experts discuss the 18 states that could see changes to their trifectas after the election.
  • Members of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) contributed $21,994,232—on October 19 alone—to the campaign opposing California Proposition 61, an initiative designed to regulate how much the state pays for drugs, making the opposition the recipient of $108.95 million in contributions this election cycle. The opposition campaign is likely to be the most expensive ballot measure campaign of 2016. Opponents of California Proposition 56, a tobacco tax increase, raised the second largest amount of total campaign funds at $66.5 million. Supporters of Proposition 61, backed by the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, have raised $14.7 million this election cycle. Over $461 million has been raised for campaigns surrounding California’s 17 ballot measures in November. Contributions in California account for more than half of this year’s total funds raised for ballot measures across the nation.
  • Vermont Public Radio released the results of a poll showing gubernatorial candidates Sue Minter (D) and Phil Scott (R) in a statistical tie. The poll was conducted in early October. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they would vote for Scott, while 38 percent said they would vote for Minter; the margin of error was 3.9 percent. The seat is open due to incumbent Democrat Peter Shumlin's retirement, and while the race is ranked "Lean Democrat," Lt. Gov. Scott is a popular figure in a state that has a history of electing notable Republican politicians to the governorship. Jim Douglas (R) was the state treasurer at the time of his election in 2002, and Richard Snelling (R) was lieutenant governor when he won the seat in 1990. Additionally, the office has changed party hands every other officeholder since 1963 (Republicans had previously held the seat since 1856). The last two open elections for governor were decided by less than 3 percentage points. If Republicans do win the governorship, it will end a five-year Democratic trifecta.
  • Ballotpedia held a webinar on energy and environmental policy conflicts and the 2016 elections. View the recording here.

Thursday, October 20

  • Bob Friedman, a member of the Committee to Save Jefferson County, filed a lawsuit in Montgomery County Circuit Court requesting that Alabama Amendment 14 be removed from the ballot. Friedman argued that the amendment might overturn a previous judge’s ruling that stopped a Jefferson County sales tax plan. If approved by voters, the amendment would guarantee the application of budget isolation resolutions (BIRs) to local Alabama laws passed prior to November 8, 2016. Specifically, the amendment would ensure legitimacy for the three-fifths majority of those “present and voting” method of passing BIRs—a method that was used to vote for the Jefferson County sales tax plan. A judge stopped the plan because it was passed via this “present and voting” BIR procedure rather than three-fifths of all legislators present. The lawsuit identifies Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill (R) and six state legislators as defendants, and a hearing was scheduled for October 25, 2016, to consider a temporary restraining order and the removal of Amendment 14 from the ballot.
  • Ballotpedia held a webinar on healthcare policy conflicts and the 2016 elections. View the recording here.

Friday, October 21

  • Ballotpedia’s first annual study of competitiveness in state executive elections revealed that the 2016 elections are more competitive than recent election cycles on average. Ninety-three state executive seats are up for election in 2016, including a special election for governor in Oregon. Only 55 percent of state executive incumbents are running for re-election in 2016, compared to about 67 percent in both 2014 and 2012. Though fewer incumbents are running in 2016 than in 2012—when the same seats were up for election—the rate of elections that are open due to term limits did not change, indicating that more incumbents are either retiring from office or are running for new offices in 2016. Notable examples include Republican Governor of Indiana Mike Pence, who is running for the vice presidency, and Democratic Governor of New Hampshire Maggie Hassan, who is running for U.S. Senate. Aggregate partisan gains for each major party between 2011 and 2015 reflected the long-run trend of mid-term presidential elections disadvantaging the party of the sitting president.

 

What’s On Tap Next Week

Saturday, October 22

Monday, October 24

 

State government in session

All states whose initials appear in red or blue in the list below have unified Republican or Democratic Party control across the state house, the state senate, and the office of the governor. Ballotpedia identifies these as “trifectas.” There are seven Democratic and 23 Republican trifectas. Two states—New Jersey and Pennsylvania—are in regular session; Ohio is in a skeleton (non-voting) session. Massachusetts is in an informal session.

  • Skeleton session: In a typical skeleton session, a clerk, a presiding officer, and another legislative member are the only people present. The presiding officer will convene the session day and adjourn it minutes later. Lawmakers who live more than 50 miles from the statehouse can deduct lodging and meal expenses on their federal income tax forms for each day the legislature is in skeleton or regular session.
  • Informal session: In an informal session, no attendance is taken and only a few members attend the session. These sessions address day-to-day business and non-controversial bills. The bills do not require debate or a roll-call vote, and they must be passed unanimously. If one member objects, the measure is blocked.

Two states are in recess:

  • MI until 11/9
  • CA until 11/30

The following states have adjourned their regular sessions:

  • AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MO, MN, MS, NC, NE, NM, NH, NY, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY

Four states have no regular sessions in 2016:

  • MT, ND, NV, TX

State government special elections

As of this week, 47 seats have been filled through legislative special elections in 2016. Nine involved party changes: four from Republican to Democratic (Oklahoma, SD 34; Massachusetts, HD Twelfth Essex; Kentucky, HD 62; and New Hampshire, HD Rockingham 21), three from Democratic to Republican (Texas, HD 118; Minnesota, HD 50B; and New York, SD 9), one from Democratic to independent (Texas, HD 120), and one from Republican to independent (Louisiana, HD 85). Another 16 (not including runoff elections) have been scheduled in nine states. An average of 37 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past three even years (2010: 26, 2012: 45, and 2014: 40).

Local

The Week in Review

2016 elections

  • In 2016, Ballotpedia is covering municipal elections across 12 of America’s largest counties by population, 46 of America's 100 largest cities by population, local judicial elections across all 39 states holding elections, school board elections across 643 of America's 1,000 largest school districts by student enrollment, all local ballot measures in California, and notable measures across the United States.
    • So far this year, Ballotpedia has covered 27 city elections, 28 states with local judicial elections, 306 school board elections, and 162 local ballot measures in California. Ballotpedia will be covering all of the approximately 550 local California measures on the ballot in November.
  • Most elections, including local elections, are held during spring and fall months. Summer and winter months contain relatively few elections and filing deadlines.

Monday, October 17

  • In New Orleans, an increase in the number of traffic cameras is expected to fund $5 million of a $614 million budget in 2017. Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D) unveiled a plan to expand the number of traffic cameras in the city from 66 to 121. The majority of these new cameras, roughly 68 percent, will be installed in school zones that already have flashing lights on major roads. Landrieu also plans to enforce a .40-cent per gallon tax on hard liquor, bringing in an estimated $1.5 million in revenue. Other sources of revenue for the city’s budget include increased property taxes, fees for permits, and a new sales tax at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The city council is expected to tweak the 2017 budget through November. New Orleans is the largest city in Louisiana and the 51st-largest city in the U.S. by population.

Tuesday, October 18

  • The owner of a Chicago education consulting company pleaded guilty to one count of federal wire fraud. Gary Solomon, co-owner of the SUPES and Synsei companies, could face an 11-year prison sentence for his role in a scheme to bribe the CEO of Chicago Public Schools (CPS) in 2012. Solomon admitted to bribing former CPS CEO Barbara Byrd-Bennett, who was employed by the SUPES company prior to taking her position with the school district. Solomon’s plea agreement stated that he offered Byrd-Bennett a percentage of any district contracts she was able to steer toward SUPES. He also admitted that he was integral in getting Byrd-Bennett hired by CPS. Between 2012 and 2013, SUPES contracts with CPS increased from $300,000 to $20.5 million. Solomon and his business partner, Thomas Vranas, set aside a portion of this money in a company fund, intending to pay Byrd-Bennett kickbacks once she returned to work for SUPES. Solomon is awaiting sentencing. Chicago is the largest city in Illinois and the third-largest city in the U.S. by population.
  • In Flint, a lawsuit was filed against the Flint City School District and the Michigan Department of Education. The suit alleges that officials failed to provide proper educational services to children exposed to lead through the city’s contaminated drinking water. Lead can significantly affect brain activity, diminish a student’s capacity to learn, and contribute to failure to thrive. The complaint argues that the Flint school system has not met its legal obligation to offer screening, special services, and interventions to children with potential lead exposure. It also charges that the district denied special education services to some students, violating the federal Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. The lawsuit further accuses the state department of education of failing to provide Flint schools with the resources needed to assist students. The schools faced a $10 million deficit and cut teachers and support staff for the 2016-2017 school year. The lawsuit names 15 children, each exposed to lead in Flint, as plaintiffs. The children range in age from three to 17 years old. They are being represented by the American Civil Liberties Union of Michigan, the Education Law Center, and the law firm White & Case, who are seeking certification to represent all Flint children who were exposed to the neurotoxin.
  • In Pennsylvania, the West York Borough Council unanimously accepted the resignation of Mayor Charles Wasko due to controversial Facebook posts. Wasko, who was elected in 2013, published two posts that compared President Barack Obama (D) and his family to apes. A third post portrayed a fictional black person explaining socialism as “when the white folks work every day so we can get all our governmental entitlement stuff for free.” A fourth post suggested that Obama should be hung with a noose, but it was later removed from Wasko’s page while the other posts remained. During a meeting held on October 3, 2016, community members demanded Wasko’s removal, calling his posts racist and unacceptable. On October 11, 2016, Wasko sent a letter to the council saying he would resign if any one of four demands made in the letter were met. The council agreed to one demand: it considered hiring an experienced officer to the local police force who could become chief. The other three demands were not made public. Council President Shawn Mauck was named as Wasko’s immediate successor.
  • In North Carolina, the Charlotte City Council selected its first African American city manager. Marcus D. Jones is replacing interim city manager Ron Kimble, who has served in the position since July 2016. Jones, who previously served as the city manager of Norfolk, Virginia, is taking the position during a crucial time. In the wake of the police shooting of Keith Lamont Scott on September 20, 2016, the city has faced civil unrest and violence. While Jones will be responsible for implementing several projects passed by Mayor Jennifer Roberts (D) and the Charlotte City Council in response to the shooting, the council says his hiring was independent of the event. After being chosen as a finalist for the position, the council voted 10-2 to hire Jones during a closed meeting. “We have this priority in the city, which is a well-managed government,” said Jones after he was hired. His compensation has not yet been publicly disclosed. Charlotte is the largest city in North Carolina and the 16th-largest city in the U.S. by population.

Wednesday, October 19

  • In San Francisco, Airbnb announced that it will automatically ban certain hosts from its website. Beginning November 1, 2016, hosts controlling multiple short-term rental listings will be identified by the company and barred from using the Airbnb website. These types of listings are often a sign of landlords running illegal hotels, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Under city law, homeowners are only allowed to rent out the single home in which they reside, making multiple listings by one host a red flag. Hosts with legitimate multiple listings, such as property management companies or individuals renting out multiple rooms in a single home, can file an exemption with Airbnb. The move by Airbnb may be an attempt to ameliorate the rocky relationship between itself and its hometown. Since April 2016, the company reported removing roughly 900 illicit listings from its website in response to tougher restrictions on short-term rentals adopted by the San Francisco City Council. “We want to work with the city on a holistic approach to make sure the home-sharing laws are working,” said Airbnb public policy head Chris Lehane. City officials and housing activists have questioned why the company is able to make this sweeping change but not take other steps to comply with city laws, such as banning whole-home listings after a 90-day cap. San Francisco is the fourth-largest city in California and the 14th-largest city in the U.S. by population.
    • The clash between Airbnb and San Francisco has been ongoing:
      • On June 27, Airbnb sued San Francisco over a city law imposing fines on the company for any illegal listings found on the Airbnb website.
      • On June 7, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors unanimously approved legislation that restricted commercial postings from short-term housing rental websites. Under the law, only residents registered with the city as hosts were permitted to post short-term listings. Any individual or business found posting a noncompliant listing could be fined up to $1,000 per day. Because the legislation passed the board unanimously, the law was protected from a threatened veto by Mayor Ed Lee (D). Instead, Lee let the law pass without signing it. The new penalties took full effect on July 27, 2016.
      • The San Francisco Board of Supervisors designed the new penalties to make Airbnb accountable for any illegal listings after a law passed in 2015 failed to be enforced. The “Airbnb law,” which passed with full support from the company in 2015, capped short-term rentals and required hosts to register with the city. It was estimated that only 20 percent of roughly 7,000 hosts registered after the law was passed, and the board alleged that Airbnb failed to remove lawbreakers.
      • A similar law was passed in New York on June 17. Lawmakers adopted legislation that would levies fines of up to $7,500 on individuals using Airbnb to rent an entire apartment for fewer than 30 days. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has until October 29, 2016, to decide whether or not to sign the bill into law. Airbnb has threatened to sue New York City if the bill becomes law. A 2016 study estimated that 55 percent of rentals in the city violated a law passed in 2010 that made it illegal to rent an entire apartment or home for fewer than 30 days. In 2015, Airbnb began to pay hotel taxes in an effort to better cooperate with host cities, but the regulation requires that Airbnb hosts—rather than Airbnb itself—pay these taxes. The millions of dollars in hotel taxes paid to New York City did not ameliorate the relationship between New York and Airbnb, and New York lawmakers said they would work with Airbnb only after all illegal postings were removed from the company’s website.
  • A new report shows that minority students in California are disproportionately affected when police are summoned to schools. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) studied 119 California school districts, including 50 of the largest districts in the state during the 2013-2014 school year. According to the study, school districts have begun outsourcing discipline by calling the police. More than half of the districts called the police for low-level disciplinary infractions, such as bullying or disrupting class, and one-third require the police be called for incidents of vandalism. Of the 9,540 school-related arrests made, black students were three times more likely to be arrested than their white peers. According to the ACLU, these arrests disproportionately affect poor, minority, and disabled students. In 2011, an autistic student was cited for vandalism after he carved his initials into the sidewalk outside of East Side Union High School in San Jose. The incident left the student with a criminal record. The report found that 98 percent of the incidents analyzed did not require parental notification prior to a student being interviewed by the police. In 99 percent of the incidents, officers weren’t required to advise students of their constitutional rights, such as the right to remain silent, if the student was not under arrest. The study recommended that school staff should handle the majority of in-school discipline and should only call the police if there is an immediate physical threat to anyone on a school campus.
  • New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s (D) fundraising campaign is under federal investigation by the FBI and the U.S. attorney in Manhattan. Since April 2016, thousands of emails and documents have been scrutinized by prosecutors who are questioning whether or not de Blasio traded beneficial city action in exchange for donations to his campaign in 2013. According to The New York Times, at the center of the investigation is whether the mayor violated state election laws when he raised money to support three Democratic state Senate candidates in 2014. There are roughly six other cases under investigation, but the inquiry has failed to uncover sufficient evidence to charge de Blasio with any criminal wrongdoing. While a spokesman for de Blasio declined to comment on the ongoing review, he did state that the administration “didn’t pay-to-play” and that its actors had acted appropriately at all times. New York City is the largest city in the U.S. by population.

Thursday, October 20

  • The Chicago Teacher’s Union (CTU) House of Delegates endorsed a contract proposed by Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D). The revised contract was presented to the CTU on October 10, 2016, just one day before a planned teacher strike. After more than one year of failed negotiations, a tentative agreement was finally reached between the powerful teachers union and city leadership. If approved, the contract may close another difficult chapter for the embattled Chicago Public Schools (CPS). A final vote on the contract will be held on October 27 and 28, 2016. Support from a simple majority of the 20,000 union members is needed to adopt the contract. "I do think it'll pass, I think there's enough in this tentative agreement that will appeal to the overwhelming majority of our members,” said Karen Lewis, president of the CTU. The four-year contract includes several provisions the union previously requested:
    • CPS will continue to pick up the bulk of contributions to active teacher pensions.
    • Veteran union members will receive a cash bonus if they resign or retire prior to the 2017-2018 school year.
    • K-2 teachers with more than 32 students in their classrooms will be eligible to receive an instructional assistant.

While teachers wouldn’t be eligible for cost-of-living raises for the first two years of the proposed contract, 2 percent and 2.5 percent pay raises would be given in each of the final two years. During the first year of the contract, teachers would also be eligible for other raises based on experience. Chicago is the largest city in Illinois and the third-largest city in the U.S. by population.  


 

Back to top for Federal and fact checks updates

Fact Check

Fact Check by Ballotpedia

State and local fact checks

 

Read the latest fact checks.


Back to top for Federal, State and Local updates

About

Ballotpedia wants to keep you in the know. In this weekly newsletter, we let you know the important things that happened last week in the federal, state and local levels of government, as well as what you should look for this week. The Tap covers election news, public policy, and other noteworthy events—everything you need to stay up-to-date on American politics. A summary of the in-depth, nonpartisan content that is added to Ballotpedia every week is now available in this digestible format for free to anyone who wants to be informed.

There are two ways to read The Tap. One is here on the website. Click the tabs for information at each level of government. For previous issues, see Ballotpedia:The Tap. You can also subscribe to have The Tap delivered to your email inbox every Saturday.



Back to top

Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Tap:_Twenty-five_presidential_debates&oldid=8576901"