The Tap: What are the odds?

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September 10, 2016Issue No. 33

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The week in review: September 3 - September 9
What's on Tap next week: September 10 - September 16

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Federal

What's on tap?

Ballotpedia’s senior staff writer Jim Barnes surveyed more than 200 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest group operatives, from September 2-6, and found that solid majorities in both parties judged that the odds were high that former secretary of state Hillary Clinton would prevail over Donald Trump in November. The party operatives were asked to rate the chances on a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty) that the Democrats would win the White House. The 101 Democratic Insiders who participated in this survey gave an average score of 7.9, while the 105 Republican Insiders registered an average of 7.1.

For a comparison of how political Insiders viewed previous presidential elections, a similar survey in 2008 of 176 Insiders conducted in mid-September by National Journal magazine and Barnes found that 86 Democratic Insiders gave their party an average score of 6.3 to capture the White House, while 90 Republicans clocked in with a 5.3 average of Democrats retaining the presidency. And that year, then-Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama went on to defeat Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain. In 2012, a mid-September National Journal Insiders survey of 205 political operatives in both parties also gave the advantage to Obama: 103 Democratic Insiders rated his re-election prospects with an average score of 7.7, while 102 Republicans gave a slight edge to Obama with an average score of 5.8. Obama won re-election over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in 2012.

 

Federal

The Week in Review

Saturday, September 3

  • The Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia endorsed Gary Johnson for president, saying, “Neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton meets the fundamental moral and professional standards we have every right to expect of an American president. Fortunately, there is a reasonable — and formidable — alternative. … [Gary Johnson] possesses substantial executive experience in both the private and the public sectors.” The paper also called him “a man of good integrity, apparently normal ego and sound ideas.” The endorsement is Johnson’s first from a major newspaper in 2016. The Richmond Times-Dispatch endorsed Republican candidates in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012.

Sunday, September 4

  • Chinese authorities failed to provide President Barack Obama with a rolling red carpet staircase when he arrived in Hangzhou, China, for the Group of 20 (G20) summit meeting, a courtesy extended to other world leaders. According to The New York Times, Obama had to exit using “a door in the belly of the plane that he usually uses only on high-security trips, like those to Afghanistan.” Chinese security officials then prevented reporters from watching Obama leave Air Force One. “When a White House staff member protested to a Chinese security official that this was not normal protocol, the official shouted, ‘This is our country,’” according to The Times. Shortly before Obama met with President Xi Jinping, Chinese and U.S. officials continued to argue over how many people could be in the building where the two leaders met. When asked about the behavior of the Chinese, Obama said that it was not the first time there was tension between the two nations, adding, “the seams are showing a little more than usual. … I wouldn’t over-crank the significance of it.”
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders, a senior advisor for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, had her role in the campaign expanded. According to The Hill, Huckabee Sanders joined the campaign’s communications staff. Bloomberg reported that Huckabee Sanders would work specifically with "faith leaders, gun rights supporters, military groups, and other voter coalitions." Huckabee Sanders previously managed the 2016 presidential campaign of Mike Huckabee and worked as Huckabee's national political director in 2008. She served as a senior advisor to Tim Pawlenty in his 2012 presidential run.

Monday, September 5

  • Speaking to reporters on his plane, Donald Trump denied any connections between a donation to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi in 2013 and her office’s decision not to pursue an investigation into fraud allegations against Trump University. On September 17, 2013, the Donald J. Trump Foundation, a 501(c)(3), donated $25,000 to And Justice for All, a 527 organization that backed Bondi’s successful re-election bid in 2014, four days after her office announced it was “reviewing the allegations” made against Trump University. The Washington Post reported on September 1, 2016, that Trump had paid a $2,500 penalty earlier this year because the donation violated federal tax law. When asked for a response to accusations that the donation was connected to Bondi’s decision not to pursue an investigation, Trump said, “No. I never spoke to her. First of all, she’s a fine person, beyond reproach. I never spoke to her about it at all. … Many of the attorney generals turned that case down because I’ll win that case in court. Many turned that down. I never spoke to her about it.”
  • Hillary Clinton’s new campaign plane made its maiden voyage from New York to Cleveland with her traveling press corps in tow. Previously, Clinton and the press corps would fly to the same event on separate charter planes. This new traveling arrangement comes as Clinton has been under increased pressure to hold a news conference after more than 270 days without one.
  • House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) called a memo outlining the Pentagon’s strategy for opposing the defense policy and spending bills “shameless.” The leaked memo written by Pentagon comptroller Mike McCord and Assistant Secretary of Defense for Legislative Affairs Stephen Hedger stated, “In short, we should attack the OCO gimmick and be prepared to play hardball opposing it. The veto threat is our primary weapon. However, a veto threat only works if it is supported by the Democratic leadership and their caucuses. Our job is to encourage and support those efforts.” One of the reasons President Barack Obama has threatened to veto the House bills is that they use “the Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) account to get around budget caps. A portion of the war fund would be used for base budget items, leaving the OCO account dry by April and forcing the next president to request supplemental funding,” according to The Hill. Ryan said in a statement, “For this administration, it's always politics first, even at the Pentagon. This memo details with relish a plan to use a presidential veto of a defense bill as a 'weapon.' … It's shameless, and it threatens more than five decades of bipartisan cooperation to enact a national defense bill for our troops. The men and women who defend our country deserve better."
    • According to Politico, Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook declined to comment on the memo, but he said that the department’s “strong opposition to the House proposal should not be a surprise.”

Tuesday, September 6

  • Eighty-eight retired generals and military officials signed an open letter endorsing Donald Trump. The letter states, “The 2016 election affords the American people an urgently needed opportunity to make a long overdue course correction in our national security posture and policy. As retired senior leaders of America’s military, we believe that such a change can only be made by someone who has not been deeply involved with, and substantially responsible for, the hollowing out of our military and the burgeoning threats facing our country around the world. For this reason, we support Donald Trump’s candidacy to be our next commander in chief.” The letter was organized by General Sidney Shachnow and Admiral Charles Williams.
  • After endorsing every Republican presidential nominee since 1968, The Dallas Morning News editorial board declined to endorse Trump in an editorial titled “Donald Trump is no Republican.” The editorial board stated, “We have no interest in a Republican nominee for whom all principles are negotiable, nor in a Republican Party that is willing to trade away principle for pursuit of electoral victory. Trump doesn't reflect Republican ideals of the past; we are certain he shouldn't reflect the GOP of the future. Donald Trump is not qualified to serve as president and does not deserve your vote.”
    • The editorial board wrote an accompanying op-ed to endorse Hillary Clinton. “We've been critical of Clinton's handling of certain issues in the past. But unlike Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton has experience in actual governance, a record of service and a willingness to delve into real policy. Resume vs. resume, judgment vs. judgment, this election is no contest,” it wrote.
    • See also: Republicans and their declared positions on Donald Trump
  • In a speech from the floor of the U.S. Senate, Democratic leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) stated his objection to nonessential committees meeting until U.S. Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland receives a hearing in the Senate Judiciary Committee. Senator Reid said, “To show the American people’s absolute disgust with how Republicans have treated Merrick Garland’s nomination, starting today I’m objecting to nonessential committees meeting for other purposes until the Judiciary Committee schedules a meeting to consider Judge Garland’s nomination. If the Republican leader thinks there is a committee that needs to meet because of extraordinary circumstances, I would be pleased to consider his request. But in the meantime, as of today, I’m objecting to committees meeting in line with the rules of the Senate.” Senate rules restrict committee work after the Senate has been in session for two hours or if committees are meeting after 2:00 p.m. unless there is unanimous consent to bypass these restrictions. Senate Democrats plan to object to bypassing these restrictions for nonessential committees which will limit the amount of time committees can work.
  • Hillary Clinton said in an interview on ABC News that she did not believe that former President Bill Clinton should resign from the Clinton Foundation until the presidential election concludes. She also suggested that her daughter, Chelsea Clinton, might not remain at the foundation if she won the election, as was announced last month. “As I’ve said over and over again ... these issues will be decided after the election and we will decide the appropriate way forward,” Clinton told reporters.
  • Congressional officials briefed by the U.S. State, Treasury, and Justice departments told The Wall Street Journal that the Obama administration sent two additional shipments of cash in a cargo plane to Iran after sending an initial $400 million cash payment as leverage to ensure that Iran released four Americans who were being held there as prisoners. The total $1.7 billion payment settled a dispute over $400 million that Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi paid to the U.S. in 1979 for undelivered military parts. The second and third payments were made in Swiss francs, euros, and other currencies on January 22, 2016, and February 5, 2016. According to The Wall Street Journal, “The Obama administration previously had refused to disclose the mechanics of the $1.7 billion settlement, despite repeated calls from U.S. lawmakers. The State Department announced the settlement on Jan. 17 but didn’t brief Congress that the entire amount had been paid in cash.”
    • See also: Iran nuclear agreement: U.S. withheld cash until hostages were released
    • Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) introduced legislation to prevent the Treasury Department from sending payments to Iran until the $1.7 billion is returned. Rubio wrote in an op-ed, “I opposed the nuclear deal with Iran and have fought this administration's endless concessions to the world's foremost state sponsor of terror. Now I'm fighting this outrageous ransom payment by introducing legislation today called the No Ransom Payments Act. My bill would forbid any future ransom payments for hostages. It would require Iran to return the $1.7 billion it received from the Obama administration, and it would forbid any future settlements of Iranian claims until Iran first pays the more than $55 billion awarded by U.S. courts to American victims of Iranian-backed terror, and to the Americans held hostage by Iran in 1979. The bill would also mandate sanctions against Iranians who hold or detain U.S. citizens.”
    • Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) criticized the Obama administration for its decision to pay Iran in cash. Cotton said in a statement, “If this report is confirmed, Americans will face the reality that they live in a world where Iran’s terrorist proxies have access to $1.3 billion more in untraceable cash, on top of the $400 million cash payment the administration has already confirmed. It’s no wonder that the administration has fought so hard to keep the nature and timing of the cash transfers secret. The payment of cash ransoms to the world’s worst state sponsor of terror encourages the hostage-taking of more innocent Americans and fuels Iran’s terror plots. It’s long past time for the president to stop stonewalling on these ransom payments and start being straight with the American people about the dangerous concessions he’s made to the ayatollahs."
    • Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) commented on a House subcommittee hearing about the payments, saying, “I am concerned that this may be a part of the strategy that is being employed by my colleagues on the opposite side of aisle to discredit the president of the United States.”
    • Rep. Michael Capuano (D-Mass.) said that Republicans are trying to make the Obama administration look “like criminals dropping bags of cash in the middle of the night like drug dealers. So we gave [Iran] back their money in a form of legal tender that is very public, and [Republicans] are criticizing it because we got back four Americans. Mother of God.”
  • President Barack Obama became the first sitting U.S. president to visit Laos. During a speech, he acknowledged the secret war the U.S. was engaged in from 1964 to 1973 in Laos and announced an increase in funding to help Laotians recover from the devastation of the war. He said, “Over nine years — from 1964 to 1973 — the United States dropped more than two million tons of bombs here in Laos — more than we dropped on Germany and Japan combined during all of World War II. It made Laos, per person, the most heavily bombed country in history. … Today, I stand with you in acknowledging the suffering and sacrifices on all sides of that conflict. … The United States will double our annual funding to $90 million over the next three years to help Laos expand its work. This will help Laos expand its work to remove even more bombs, allow Laotians to farm more land, and increase support for victims. I’ll bear witness to this work tomorrow when I meet with survivors. Given our history here, I believe that the United States has a moral obligation to help Laos heal.”
  • President Barack Obama and South Korean President Park Geun-hye condemned North Korea’s launch of three ballistic missiles on Monday. Obama and Park met to discuss the incident and decided to “enhance combined defense capabilities to include the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system,” according to CNN. Obama said, "We are going to work together to ensure that we are closing loopholes and making them more effective. And President Park and I agree that the entire international community needs to implement these sanctions fully and hold North Korea accountable. North Korea needs to know that provocations will only invite more pressure and further deepen its isolation."
  • President Barack Obama announced that the United States and China would join the 2015 Paris climate change agreement together. The United States pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between 26 and 36 percent from 2005 levels by the year 2025 as part of the agreement. China pledged that its emissions would peak before the year 2030. Though Obama announced that the United States formally joined the agreement, congressional Republicans have argued that the agreement is not binding until the U.S. Senate ratifies it as required by the U.S. Constitution. Further, the Obama administration’s signature climate change initiative for power plants was temporarily stayed by the U.S. Supreme Court in February 2016. The initiative was an integral part to the United States’ emissions reduction pledge in the Paris agreement. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will likely determine the fate of the Paris climate agreement and the Obama administration’s signature climate change rule.
  • After Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte expressed regret over his controversial comments about President Barack Obama, the two met informally before an ASEAN summit gala dinner in Laos and reaffirmed the “rock solid” relationship between the U.S. and the Philippines. Obama and Duterte were scheduled to meet on Tuesday, but the meeting was canceled after Duterte told reporters on Monday that he would not discuss the war on drugs in the Philippines with Obama. Duterte said, "You must be respectful. Do not just throw away questions and statements. Son of a whore, I will curse you in that forum.” On Monday night, Duterte appeared contrite, saying, “I do not want to quarrel with [Obama]. He’s the most powerful president of any country on the planet.” According to The Wall Street Journal, “He blamed State Department officials for needling him by continually raising the issue of human rights, which Mr. Duterte says matters less than curbing crime.”
  • Tim Miller, former communications director for Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign, joined Definers Public Affairs, a communications firm founded by Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign manager, Matt Rhoades, and former RNC research director Joe Pounder. According to Politico, the firm brings "political campaign type research and communication tactics" to corporate consulting in Washington, D.C. Miller said that his role was to work "more aggressively ... directly after threats to our clients."
  • The United States government filed a motion in federal district court to enforce a temporary remedy to Texas' voter ID law, which a federal appeals court struck down in July, finding that the law violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Under the terms of the temporary remedy, which was agreed to by both state officials and opponents of the state's voter ID law, Texas voters can use voter registration certificates, birth certificates, utility bills, bank statements, government checks, paychecks, and other government documents as identification at the polls if they "cannot reasonably obtain" the forms of identification mandated by state law (known as "SB 14 ID"). The motion read, in part, as follows: "Rather than educating voters and poll officials about opportunities to cast a regular ballot for those who ‘do not possess SB 14 ID and cannot reasonably obtain it,’ the State has recast that language to limit the opportunity to cast a regular ballot solely to those voters who present SB 14 ID or who 'have not obtained' and 'cannot obtain' SB 14 ID. That standard is incorrect and far harsher than the Court-ordered standard it would displace."
  • Republican U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (KY-1) resigned from office on Tuesday. Whitfield had previously planned to retire at the end of the 114th Congress but announced on August 31, 2016, that he would be resigning early. Whitfield was the subject of an ongoing ethics investigation at the time of his resignation. The probe began in March 2015 and investigated reports that Whitfield and his wife, a lobbyist, worked together to advance her work for the Humane Society of the United States. The investigation found that Whitfield's wife was unfairly advantaged by having access to her husband's congressional staff. A special election to fill the last two months of Whitfield’s term will be held coinciding with the regular general election on November 8, 2016. The race is rated safely Republican.

Wednesday, September 7

  • Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump participated in an hour-long Commander-in-Chief forum hosted by Matt Lauer on NBC News. This was the first prime-time event of the general election season in which both candidates participated, though they were not on stage at the same time. Clinton and Trump, in back-to-back segments, discussed their views on ISIS, the Iran Nuclear Deal, relations with Russia, key veterans issues, and more. Below are highlights from both candidates.
    • Clinton:
      • On how she communicated about classified information while secretary of state: “[Classified information] is marked. There is a header so that there is no dispute at all that what is being communicated to or from someone who has that access is marked classified. And what we have here is the use of an unclassified system by hundreds of people in our government to send information that was not marked, there were no headers, there was no statement, top secret, secret, or confidential. I communicated about classified material on a wholly separate system. I took it very seriously.”
      • On supporting military action in Iraq: “Look, I think that the decision to go to war in Iraq was a mistake. And I have said that my voting to give President Bush that authority was, from my perspective, my mistake. I also believe that it is imperative that we learn from the mistakes, like after- action reports are supposed to do, and so we must learn what led us down that path so that it never happens again. I think I’m in the best possible position to be able to understand that and prevent it.”
      • On supporting military action in Libya: “With respect to Libya, again, there’s no difference between my opponent and myself. He’s on record extensively supporting intervention in Libya, when Gadhafi was threatening to massacre his population. I put together a coalition that included NATO, included the Arab League, and we were able to save lives. We did not lose a single American in that action. And I think taking that action was the right decision. Not taking it, and permitting there to be an ongoing civil war in Libya, would have been as dangerous and threatening as what we are now seeing in Syria.”
      • On whether Iran is fooling the U.S. with the Iran nuclear agreement: “On the nuclear issue, no. I think we have enough insight into what they’re doing to be able to say we have to distrust but verify. What I am focused on is all the other malicious activities of the Iranians — ballistic missiles, support for terrorists, being involved in Syria, Yemen, and other places, supporting Hezbollah, Hamas.”
      • On the quality of services for veterans: “Look, I was outraged by the stories that came out about the V.A. And I have been very clear about the necessity for doing whatever is required to move the V.A. into the 21st century, to provide the kind of treatment options that our veterans today desperately need and deserve. And that’s what I will do as president. But I will not let the V.A. be privatized. And I do think there is an agenda out there, supported by my opponent, to do just that. I think that would be very disastrous for our military veterans.”
      • On whether to deploy troops to combat ISIS: “We’re going to work to make sure that they have the support — they have special forces, as you know, they have enablers, they have surveillance, intelligence, reconnaissance help. They are not going to get ground troops. We are not putting ground troops into Iraq ever again. And we’re not putting ground troops into Syria. We’re going to defeat ISIS without committing American ground troops. So those are the kinds of decisions we have to make on a case-by-case basis.”
    • Trump:
      • On his preparation to be commander-in-chief: “Well, I’ve built a great company. I’ve been all over the world. I’ve dealt with foreign countries. I’ve done very well, as an example, tremendously well dealing with China and dealing with so many of the countries that are just ripping this country. … And I’ve had great experience dealing on an international basis. … I have good judgment. I know what’s going on. I’ve called so many of the shots.”
    • See also: Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016/Military and veterans
      • On military generals under Obama: “I think under the leadership of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, the generals have been reduced to rubble. They have been reduced to a point where it’s embarrassing for our country.”
      • On the U.S. involvement in Iraq: “I mean, part of the problem that we’ve had is we go in, we defeat somebody, and then we don’t know what we’re doing after that. We lose it, like as an example, you look at Iraq, what happened, how badly that was handled. And then when President Obama took over, likewise, it was a disaster. It was actually somewhat stable. … But he came in. He said when we go out — and he took everybody out. And really, ISIS was formed. This was a terrible decision. … I’ve always said, [we] shouldn’t be there, but if we’re going to get out, take the oil. If we would have taken the oil, you wouldn’t have ISIS, because ISIS formed with the power and the wealth of that oil.”
      • On his plan for defeating ISIS: “I have a plan. … If I win, I don’t want to broadcast to the enemy exactly what my plan is. … And let me tell you, if I like maybe a combination of my plan and the generals’ plan, or the generals’ plan, if I like their plan, Matt [Lauer], I’m not going to call you up and say, ‘Matt, we have a great plan.’”
    • See also: Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016/ISIS and Syrian refugees
      • On allowing undocumented immigrants serving in the military to stay in the country: “I think that when you serve in the armed forces, that’s a very special situation, and I could see myself working that out, absolutely.”
    • See also: Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016/Immigration
      • On Vladimir Putin: “[H]e does have an 82 percent approval rating, according to the different pollsters, who, by the way, some of them are based right here. … I think I’d be able to get along with him. … If he says great things about me, I’m going to say great things about him. I’ve already said, he is really very much of a leader. I mean, you can say, oh, isn’t that a terrible thing — the man has very strong control over a country. … Now, it’s a very different system, and I don’t happen to like the system. But certainly, in that system, he’s been a leader, far more than our president has been a leader.”
      • On VA reform: “Under a part of my plan … they walk outside, they go to the local doctor, they choose the doctor, they choose the hospital, whether it’s public or private, they get themselves better. … and, by the way, I never said take the V.A. — take the Veterans Administration private. I wouldn’t do that. Too much respect for our people. I would never do that.”
      • On veterans suicide: “We’re going to speed up the process. We’re going to create a great mental health division. They need help. They need help. They need tremendous help. And we’re doing nothing for them.”
      • On sexual assault in the military: “It’s a massive problem. The numbers are staggering, hard to believe, even. But we’re going to have to run it very tight. I at the same time want to keep the court system within the military. I don’t think it should be outside of the military. But we have to come down very, very hard on that.”
  • The Clinton campaign began airing Spanish-language ads in Florida and Nevada. One ad features former Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez, who served in George W. Bush's administration, saying, "I was born in Cuba, but this country gave me my success. I've been a Republican my entire life, but first I'm an American. Vote for Trump? I can't. It's dangerous and we don't want to go back. Hillary Clinton has the experience and I trust her. For me, country first, and then party."
  • Warrants were filed in Morton County, North Dakota, for the arrest of Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein and her running mate, Ajamu Baraka, for misdemeanor charges of criminal trespass and criminal mischief. They allegedly vandalized equipment at a construction site to protest the Dakota Access pipeline. Stein called her actions "civil disobedience." She added, “I hope the North Dakota authorities press charges against the real vandalism taking place at the Standing Rock Sioux reservation: the bulldozing of sacred burial sites and the unleashing of vicious attack dogs."
  • Former Secretary of Health and Human Services Louis Wade Sullivan, a Republican who served in George H.W. Bush's administration, endorsed Hillary Clinton. “I’m an American, and I’m concerned about my country. Though my enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton is somewhat tempered, I certainly believe she is an infinitely better choice for president than Donald Trump," he said.
  • The Clinton campaign released a list of 95 retired generals and admirals who support her candidacy, including Gen. (Ret.) Lloyd “Fig” Newton. He said in a statement, “Growing up in South Carolina, respect for individual liberties and the right for every person to vote was taught to me at an early age and it is of the utmost importance to me today. These fundamental rights are why I served and care so deeply about our great nation. Given the challenges we face around the world today, and the rhetoric we are hearing from some at home, I feel I have a moral imperative to come forth and endorse Secretary Hillary Clinton for President.”
  • Donald Trump made changes to his campaign staff in Florida, shifting lobbyist and former Rick Scott aide Susie Wiles into an oversight position in the state. According to the Tampa Bay Times, Wiles had been working on Trump’s communications staff in New York. Wiles told Politico, “As much as I liked being in New York at headquarters, the campaign dictated that the best use of my talents was in Florida. I’m looking forward to making Donald Trump the next president of the United States.”
  • A Russian SU-27 fighter jet made "an unsafe close-range intercept" of a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon over the Black Sea. The encounter lasted 19 minutes, and at one point the jet came within 10 feet of the Navy plane, which one official said "is considered unsafe and unprofessional." Captain Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman, said, "U.S. Navy aircraft and ships routinely interact with Russian units in the area and most interactions are safe and professional. However, we have deep concerns when there is an unsafe maneuver. These actions have the potential to unnecessarily escalate tensions between countries, and could result in a miscalculation or accident, which results in serious injury or death." The incident was one of several between the U.S. and Russia in recent months.
  • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced that he plans to hold a vote sometime next week on a short-term measure to fund the government until Dec. 9, 2016. According to The Hill, “McConnell added that he’s already started talks with Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and the White House, who have pledged to block any stopgap funding measure, called a continuing resolution, that stretches into 2017.” Congress must pass a spending bill this month to keep the government operating after Sept. 30.

Thursday, September 8

  • Donald Trump delivered a speech on education policy in Ohio. He said, “As your president I will be the nation's biggest cheerleader for school choice. I understand many stale old politicians will resist, but it's time for our country to start thinking big and correct once again.” On his campaign website, he proposed allocating $20 billion toward school choice policies “by reprioritizing existing federal dollars.” In his speech in Ohio, Trump also commented on the issue of merit pay for teachers, saying, “I will also support merit pay for teachers so that we reward our best teachers instead of the failed tenure system that rewards bad teachers and punishes the good ones.”
  • Trump conducted an interview on RT America, a state-funded Russian news network. The interview came amid criticisms from Hillary Clinton’s campaign that Trump is too close to Russian president Vladimir Putin. Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s campaign manager, said that Trump did the interview as a favor to Larry King, who was the interviewer on the program, and that “nobody said it was going to be on Russian TV.” In the interview, Trump said that it is “unlikely” Russia is seeking to intervene in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. He said, “I think that that is pretty unlikely. I think it’s probably unlikely. I don’t know. I’ve been hearing about it, I’ve been reading about it. I think maybe the Democrats are putting that out. You know, who knows? I hope that if they are doing something, I hope that somebody’s going to be able to find out so that they can end it, because that would not be appropriate at all.”
  • When asked in an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” how he would address the refugee crisis in Aleppo, Syria, Gary Johnson responded by saying, “What is Aleppo?” Mike Barnicle, a panelist on the show, asked if he was kidding, and Johnson said “No.” Barnicle replied, “Aleppo is in Syria. It’s the epicenter of the refugee crisis.” Johnson said, “Okay, got it,” and then discussed his views on partnering with Russia to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
    • Johnson later addressed the issue in an official statement, saying, “This morning, I began my day by setting aside any doubt that I'm human. Yes, I understand the dynamics of the Syrian conflict -- I talk about them every day. But hit with 'What about Aleppo?', I immediately was thinking about an acronym, not the Syrian conflict. I blanked. It happens, and it will happen again during the course of this campaign. Can I name every city in Syria? No. Should I have identified Aleppo? Yes. Do I understand its significance? Yes.”
    • See also: Gary Johnson presidential campaign, 2016/Foreign affairs
  • Vice President Joseph Biden held a press event with Democratic members of Congress on the steps of the U.S. Capitol urging the Senate to avoid setting a "dangerous precedent" in failing to give an up or down vote on Merrick Garland's nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. The vice president said, "Do your job in terms of not spreading the dysfunction of the Congress to the Supreme Court of the United States."
  • An analysis written by Environment & Energy Publishing (E&E) reported that 15 of the approximately 70 competitive U.S. House races will focus on environmental policy issues, such as environmental protection, federal land issues, and energy policy. In Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton (R) faces former state Sen. Gail Schwartz (D). Schwartz criticized Tipton’s support for transferring federal land ownership to the states. Tipton argued that state and local governments know best how to manage the land. In Florida’s 18th District, an open-seat race could be decided based on which candidate has the better plan for cleaning up toxic algae blooms in the state’s waterways. In Michigan’s 1st District, Lon Johnson (D) supports shutting down an oil pipeline through the Great Lakes until the pipeline is proven safe. His opponent, retired Marine Lt. Gen. Jack Bergman (R), said he supports safety inspections at the pipeline but argued shutting down the project would harm the region’s economy.
  • Massachusetts held congressional primaries.
    • There is no U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts in 2016.
    • Massachusetts has nine U.S. House districts. The Democratic Party currently holds all nine seats. All nine incumbents are seeking re-election, but none faced a primary challenger on Thursday. All nine of Massachusetts’ House races are rated safely Democratic in the general election.
    • Massachusetts’ 9th District featured the only contested primary in the state. Mark Alliegro defeated Tom O’Malley to win the Republican nomination. Alliegro will face incumbent Bill Keating (D) in the general election.
    • Massachusetts held its primary on a Thursday rather than a Tuesday so that it did not immediately follow Labor Day. This was in order to prevent extra costs, so that workers would not need to be paid overtime to set up polling places on the holiday. Massachusetts also held its primaries on a Thursday in 2012 for the same reason.
  • The pro-Hillary Clinton super PAC Priorities USA announced that it had raised $21.6 million in August, ending the month with $41.5 million cash on hand. According to CNN, this fundraising haul is nearly equal to the amount of money pro-Trump super PACs have collectively raised in 2016.
  • The New York Times reported that Paul Combetta, the computer specialist who deleted emails from Hillary Clinton's private email server in March 2015, was given immunity by the Justice Department during its investigation into whether classified material was mishandled on the server.
  • The Pentagon confirmed that U.S. military forces tried but failed to rescue two American University of Afghanistan professors—one American and one Australian—during a raid in August near Jalalabad in eastern Afghanistan. Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook said that the hostages were not at the location when the raid took place and “[a] fierce firefight ensued, with U.S. personnel killing ‘hostile forces.’” He added that “No U.S. personnel or civilians were harmed.” The Haqqani network, an Afghan insurgent group, is suspected of kidnapping the professors on August 7, according to Fox News. Their whereabouts remain unknown.
  • The White House named retired U.S. Air Force Brigadier General Gregory Touhill as the government’s first federal cyber security chief. According to Reuters, “Touhill's job will be to protect government networks and critical infrastructure from cyber threats as federal chief information security officer.”

Friday, September 9

  • Judge James Boasberg denied an injunction requested by the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe against the construction of a portion of the Dakota Access pipeline. In his ruling, Boasberg criticized the pipeline permitting process but concluded that an injunction was not warranted. The approximately 1,172-mile crude oil pipeline would carry around 470,000 barrels of crude oil a day from North Dakota to Illinois. The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe filed a complaint in federal court against the pipeline alleging that the pipeline's construction "threatens the Tribe's environmental and economic well-being, and would damage and destroy sites of great historic, religious, and cultural significance to the Tribe." The company behind the pipeline, Dakota Access, argued that the pipeline is the "safest, most cost-effective and environmentally responsible way to move crude oil" and that the project would help the United States become more energy independent. The tribe has also accused Dakota Access of intentionally destroying new archeological artifacts. Protests have been ongoing at the proposed site of the pipeline. According to CBS, four private security guards, two security dogs, and 36 protesters have been injured in the protests.
  • The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party filed a petition with the state Supreme Court seeking to remove Donald Trump’s name from the general election ballot. On August 25, 2016, it was reported that the Minnesota secretary of state's office had not yet received the full paperwork from the Minnesota Republican Party to get Trump's name on the ballot. The problem centered on the Minnesota GOP not having nominated alternate electors for the electoral college at its state convention, a procedural hurdle required by Minnesota state law. The Minnesota GOP's bylaws outline procedures for filling vacancies in its electors slate but not (specifically) for nominating alternate electors. Late on August 25, however, the party’s executive committee appointed alternates and finished submitting paperwork to the secretary of state's office. Shortly thereafter, a spokesperson for the secretary of state's office confirmed, "The filing is complete and the Republican ticket should be listed on our site shortly."
    • A statement from the Minnesota DFL Party’s read, “The Minnesota GOP did not elect to elect alternate presidential electors at the state convention earlier this year. After being notified that they had failed to provide the names of alternative electors by the Secretary of State’s office, Republicans decided to appoint alternate electors in a closed-door meeting rather than electing them. This is violation of state law.”
    • See also Presidential election in Minnesota, 2016
  • Donald Trump will speak at Phyllis Schlafly’s funeral on Saturday. Schlafly, who died on Monday at the age of 92, released a book on Tuesday called The Conservative Case for Trump, in which she encouraged Christian voters to support the Republican nominee. Following her death, Trump said, “Phyllis Schlafly is a conservative icon who led millions to action, reshaped the conservative movement, and fearlessly battled globalism and the 'kingmakers' on behalf of America's workers and families. I was honored to spend time with her during this campaign as she waged one more great battle for national sovereignty.”
  • Trump spoke at the 2016 Values Voters Summit, a gathering of social conservatives and Christian voters. He said, “[In] a Trump administration, our Christian heritage will be cherished, protected, defended like you have never seen before. Believe me. And that includes religious liberty.” He also spoke about the Johnson Amendment, which prohibits tax-exempt organizations from supporting or opposing political candidates. Trump said, “The Johnson Amendment has blocked our pastors and ministers and others from speaking their minds from their own pulpits. If they want to talk about Christianity, if they want to preach, if they want to talk about politics, they’re unable to do so. … If they want to, they take a tremendous risk: that they lose their tax-exempt status. If I become president, we’re going to knock out the Johnson amendment.”
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), the chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, issued subpoenas for information technology specialists Paul Combetta, Bill Thornton, and Bryan Pagliano to testify at a committee hearing next Tuesday about their involvement in the deletion of emails from Hillary Clinton’s private server in 2015 after they had been requested by Congress. U.S. Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) condemned the action, writing in a letter to Chaffetz, “This is the first time during my 20 years in Congress that I have witnessed the oversight power of this committee used in such a transparently political manner to directly influence a presidential election.”
  • After North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test of the week, President Barack Obama issued a statement condemning the tests and promising to tighten sanctions on the country. He said, “As Commander in Chief, I have a responsibility to safeguard the American people and ensure that the United States is leading the international community in responding to this threat and North Korea's other provocations with commensurate resolve and condemnation. … Upon hearing the news of the test, I had the opportunity to consult separately via phone with Republic of Korea (ROK) President Park Geun-Hye and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. We agreed to work with the UN Security Council, our other Six-Party partners, and the international community to vigorously implement existing measures imposed in previous resolutions, and to take additional significant steps, including new sanctions, to demonstrate to North Korea that there are consequences to its unlawful and dangerous actions. I restated to President Park and Prime Minister Abe the unshakable U.S. commitment to take necessary steps to defend our allies in the region, including through our deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery to the ROK, and the commitment to provide extended deterrence, guaranteed by the full spectrum of U.S. defense capabilities.

Congressional Legislation

Lawmakers returned to Capitol Hill on Tuesday, September 6, 2016, after a long summer recess. The Senate failed to move forward with bills to fight the Zika virus and fund the Department of Defense. The House passed S 2040—the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act—setting up a fight with the White House. The legislation proposes allowing the victims of the 9/11 terror attacks to sue Saudi Arabia for sponsoring terrorism. President Barack Obama has threatened to veto the bill. Full coverage of this week’s legislation can be viewed here.

Tuesday, September 6

  • Key vote: For the third time, the Senate rejected legislation that proposed providing $1.1 billion to fight Zika, a mosquito-borne virus that can cause paralysis and severe birth defects, by a vote of 52-48. Sixty votes were needed to move forward with the legislation. Democrats opposed the legislation because it would have denied new funding to Planned Parenthood clinics in Puerto Rico for birth control, and it would have eased the requirements on spraying pesticides to kill mosquitoes. The House passed the legislation on June 23, 2016.
  • The House unanimously passed HR 5578—the Survivors' Bill of Rights Act of 2016. According to a press release from Rep. Mimi Walters (R-Calif.), the sponsor of the bill, “This bipartisan legislation will ensure that sexual assault survivors in federal criminal cases have a right to: a sexual assault evidence collection kit; be notified in writing before the kit is destroyed; request preservation of the kit; and be informed of important results from a forensic examination. The Survivors’ Bill of Rights Act will also require the Attorney General and the United States Department of Health and Human Services to convene a joint working group on best practices regarding the care and treatment of sexual assault survivors and the preservation of forensic evidence.”

Friday, September 9

  • Key vote: The House passed S 2040—the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act—by voice vote. The legislation proposes allowing victims of terror attacks that occur in the United States to sue countries that support terrorism. Family members would also be allowed to bring lawsuits against state sponsors of terror. The legislation would specifically allow the victims of the 9/11 terror attacks to sue Saudi Arabia for sponsoring terrorism. President Barack Obama has threatened to veto the legislation. The Senate passed the legislation by voice vote on May 17, 2016.

 

Congress is IN session SCOTUS is NOT in session
The U.S. Senate will be in session Monday-Friday next week. The U.S. House will be in session Monday-Thursday. The Supreme Court is in recess until Monday, October 3. For a detailed breakdown of last term, see Ballotpedia’s Supreme Court end of term review, 2015.

What’s On Tap Next Week

Monday, September 12

  • The U.S. Senate is expected to hold a procedural vote on the Water Resources Development Act. The bill would fund $4.5 billion in water projects for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Approximately $4.8 billion would go toward water infrastructure updates nationwide, with approximately $220 million going toward drinking water programs for residents affected by the lead contamination crisis in Flint, Michigan. Conservative group Heritage Action told senators to vote against the bill, arguing that the legislation would increase federal involvement in local matters. The Sierra Club, an environmental group, criticized a provision in the bill that would give the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certain enforcement authority over coal ash sites rather than allowing only citizen lawsuits challenging coal ash site operators in court..

Tuesday, September 13

  • The final congressional primaries of the election cycle will take place on Tuesday in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.
  • Delaware will hold U.S. House primaries.
  • New Hampshire will hold congressional primaries.
    • The U.S. Senate seat currently held by Kelly Ayotte (R) is up for election in 2016. Ayotte is seeking re-election and will face four primary challengers on Tuesday. The winner of the Republican primary will face Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) in the general election. New Hampshire is one of the nine Senate battleground races that will determine which party will control the Senate.
    • There are two House districts in New Hampshire. Control of the state’s congressional districts is currently divided, and each party holds one congressional district.
    • District 1 is currently held by Frank Guinta (R). Guinta is seeking re-election despite calls for his resignation from Republicans following a campaign finance controversy regarding illegal contributions. Guinta will face four primary challengers on Tuesday. The winner of the primary will face former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in the general election. The district is one of the country's most volatile battleground districts. It has swapped hands between Guinta and Shea-Porter in every election cycle since 2010.
    • District 2 is currently held by Annie Kuster (D). She is seeking re-election in 2016 and faces no primary opposition. Seven Republicans are competing in the primary for a chance to face her in the general election. The seat is rated safely Democratic in November.
  • Rhode Island will hold U.S. House primaries.
    • Rhode Island has two U.S. House districts. Both seats are currently held by the Democratic Party, and both races are rated safely Democratic in the general election. Both incumbents are seeking re-election in 2016, and they will each face at least one primary challenger.

Thursday, September 15

 

Where was the president last week? Federal judiciary
On Saturday, President Barack Obama traveled to Hangzhou, China, to participate in the two-day G20 summit on the global economy. He then flew to Laos on Monday, becoming the first U.S. president to visit the country.  
  • 100 total federal judicial vacancies
  • 61 pending nominations
  • 14 future vacancies

Back to top for State, Local, and fact checks updates

State and Local

What's on tap?

With $60 million in federal funds on the line, Tennessee will work to repeal a DUI law before a hard deadline of October 1. Get the details below.

 

Highlights

State

  • On Monday, September 12, the Tennessee General Assembly will convene a special session to repeal a law that would prevent the state from receiving $60 million in federal highway funds. Last month, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration notified state officials that unless they complied with federal law they would lose funding. During this year’s regular session, the legislature passed a DUI law that does not comply with the federal “zero tolerance” drunk driving statute. The state’s new DUI law raised the blood alcohol content (BAC) limit for 18-to-20 years old to 0.08 and added tougher penalties for violators. The federal “zero tolerance” law sets the BAC limit to 0.02 for all drivers under 21. To avoid calling a special session, Gov. Bill Haslam (R) spent weeks in discussion with federal officials over a compromise, even promising that the law would be repealed in the legislature’s next regular session in January 2017, but the U.S. Department of Transportation would not budge. The state must repeal the law before the fiscal year begins on October 1 or permanently lose the $60 million. The special session will cost taxpayers $25,000 a day.
    • House Speaker Beth Harwell (R) has also said that the legislature will attempt to expel state Rep. Jeremy Durham (R) during the special session. On July 13, 2016, the state attorney general's office released a report that found state Rep. Durham had inappropriate sexual conduct with 22 women affiliated with the legislature. Durham was defeated in the Republican primary on August 4, 2016. Unless he is expelled, Durham will receive a lifetime pension of $4,130 per year.

Local

  • On Tuesday, September 6, Susan Hawk (R) resigned from her position as Dallas County District Attorney. Hawk was elected in 2014, and had been hospitalized three separate times due to depression and a mood disorder. Her election was the first Republican victory in a countywide contested election since 2004. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will appoint Hawk’s successor, who will serve until Hawk’s initial term expires in 2018. Dallas County is the second-largest county by population in Texas.
 

State

The Week in Review

Ballot measures update

  • In 2016, 160 measures across 35 states have been certified for the ballot, and all but eight of those will be decided during the November election.
    • Seventy-four of the 160 measures certified this year are citizen initiatives. That is more than double the 35 citizen initiatives certified in 2014; in fact, this year features more citizen initiatives on the ballot than in any year since 2006. Low turnout in the 2014 elections likely contributed to more citizen initiatives being proposed and certified, as fewer total votes cast in 2014 led to a reduced signature burden in 2016 in many states.
    • By this time in 2014, the last statewide ballot measure had been certified for the ballot, with a total of 158 measures—including legislative referrals.
    • Two new measures were certified for the ballot this week. These are some of the final certifications expected for the November 2016 ballot.
  • Eight statewide ballot measures have been decided so far in 2016. Seven were approved.
  • There are no more state ballot measure elections before the November election.
    • The seventh and last pre-November ballot measure election occurred in Florida on August 30; voters approved Amendment 4, the only measure on the ballot.
  • Ballotpedia has coverage of ballot measures going back to 1777.

Monday, September 5

  • Speaking to reporters on his plane, Donald Trump denied any connections between a donation to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi (R) in 2013 and her office’s decision not to pursue an investigation into fraud allegations against Trump University. On September 17, 2013, the Donald J. Trump Foundation, a 501(c)(3), donated $25,000 to And Justice for All—a 527 organization that backed Bondi’s successful re-election bid in 2014—four days after her office announced it was “reviewing the allegations” made against Trump University. The Washington Post reported on September 1, 2016, that Trump had paid a $2,500 penalty earlier this year because the donation violated federal tax law. When asked for a response to accusations that the donation was connected to Bondi’s decision not to pursue an investigation, Trump said, “No. I never spoke to her. First of all, she a fine person, beyond reproach. I never spoke to her about it at all. … Many of the attorney generals [sic] turned that case down because I’ll win that case in court. Many turned that down. I never spoke to her about it.”


Tuesday, September 6

  • Nevada Director of Conservation and Natural Resources Leo Drozdoff stepped down. Governor Brian Sandoval (R) had announced on July 21, 2016, that Drozdoff would retire later that year: "I will miss his leadership at the Department but wish him the very best as he enters into his retirement from state service," said Sandoval upon the announcement. Drozdoff had been appointed to the nonpartisan position by previous Governor Jim Gibbons (R) in 2010; Governor Sandoval has yet to announce a replacement.
  • New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R) signed six new education bills into law. The bills:
    • (1) provide private schools with $11.3 million for security services and equipment;
    • (2) limit student suspensions and expulsions during kindergarten through second grade;
    • (3) require a review of the standards used to teach about substance abuse;
    • (4) require college graduation rates to be reported to the Higher Education Student Assistance Authority;
    • (5) encourage schools to identify students with learning or behavioral needs earlier; and
    • (6) allow state colleges to form a cooperative to purchase goods and services. During a subsequent speech, Christie also called for a longer school year and a more equitable school funding formula.

See also: Public education in New Jersey

  • Federal Judge Michael Fitzgerald ruled that the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) must prepare a supplemental Environmental Impact Statement about the expected impacts of fracking on federal lands in California. In September 2011, the BLM released a draft land use plan for federal lands in Kings, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Tulare, Ventura, Madera, Fresno, and Kern counties. Accompanying this plan was an Environmental Impact Statement outlining the expected environmental impacts of activities on those lands, including oil and gas drilling. Two environmental groups—the Center for Biological Diversity and Los Padres ForestWatch—protested against the plan, arguing that it did not adequately address the impacts of hydraulic fracturing ("fracking"). The BLM expects that 25 percent of new wells on these lands will be treated with hydraulic fracturing. The judge also gave the BLM a deadline of September 21, 2016, to present arguments about why he should not issue an injunction to stop the BLM's land use plan from going into effect.

Wednesday, September 7

Thursday, September 8

  • Ballotpedia completed research about signature petition costs in California; over $44 million was spent to qualify 14 citizen initiatives and one veto referendum for the November 2016 ballot. That figure is greater than any year in the prior decade, eclipsing the previous record by almost $16.5 million (in nominal dollars).
    • The cost per required signature (CPRS) compares dollars spent on a petition drive to the number of signatures the state requires for an initiative to make the ballot. The average CPRS of the 2016 measures was $6.20. Between 2006 and 2014, average CPRS counts ranged from $2.98 to $3.92. However, in 2005, the average CPRS was higher: $6.53.
    • Proponents of Proposition 54, a measure requiring the legislature to provide public access to bills before voting on them, expended the most contributions to get their initiative on the ballot. Hiring National Petition Management, Inc., the Yes on Prop 54 committee spent $11.31 per required signature.
    • Spending $2.72 per required signature, supporters of Proposition 52 spent the least to get their initiative on the ballot. Their measure necessitates voter approval to change dedicated use of certain fees from hospitals used to draw matching federal dollars.
  • Thursday was the last day for the Michigan State Legislature to refer measures to the ballot. Currently, no measures are certified for the 2016 ballot. The legislature considered dozens of proposed constitutional amendments during the 2015-2016 legislative session, but did not refer any to the ballot. The last time the legislature put a measure on a November ballot in an even-numbered year was in 2010.
  • The U.S. Justice Department declined to re-indict former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell (R) on corruption charges following a June 2016 Supreme Court decision that vacated his conviction. McDonnell was found guilty of conspiring to take cash and gifts from the owner of Star Scientific in exchange for promoting a dietary supplement in 2014. McDonnell appealed the case to the U.S. Supreme Court, which unanimously decided that the jury was given incorrect instructions regarding what constituted an "official action," and remanded the case back to prosecutors to decide whether or not to re-try McDonnell under a new definition of an "official act" provided in the Court's opinion. "After carefully considering the Supreme Court’s recent decision and the principles of federal prosecution, we have made the decision not to pursue the case further," said a statement from the Justice Department.
  • Jury selection begins in the trial against former aide to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R) Bridget Anne Kelly and former deputy executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Bill Baroni. Both were indicted on nine charges in April 2015—including conspiracy to commit fraud—over allegations that the two conspired with former Port Authority Executive David Wildstein to purposely create traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge. The traffic jams were allegedly intended as retaliation against the mayor of Fort Lee, New Jersey, for declining to endorse Christie's 2013 re-election bid. Wildstein had pleaded guilty to two charges of conspiracy in January 2015; both Kelly and Baroni have maintained their innocence.
    • Governor Christie has also denied any involvement, stating that the employees acted alone and without his knowledge. However, Wildstein's lawyer has publicly stated that there is evidence that Christie did have prior knowledge of the plan. Christie told reporters in August 2016 that he would testify if subpoenaed and that he was confident he would be absolved of any wrongdoing. Opening arguments are set to begin on September 19; Christie is term-limited from running for re-election in 2017.
  • Governor Jerry Brown (D) signed legislation extending the state’s goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as part of its statewide climate change policy. The bill requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2030, a greater reduction than the state’s previous goal of reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. The 2016 legislation builds upon Assembly Bill 32, one of California’s strongest environmental laws, which established a statewide cap-and-trade program requiring companies to purchase permits for emitting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Supporters of the legislation, including Democrats and environmental groups, argued that the bill would help California reduce its emissions further and push the state’s economy into using fewer carbon-emitting energy sources. Opponents of the legislation, including Republicans and energy industry groups, argued that the bill would drive out jobs and raise energy costs.
  • Massachusetts held its primary elections. In the Senate, only two incumbents faced primary opponents. Both incumbents won their elections, including Patrick O’Connor (R). O’Connor was elected in May through a special election and will face Joan Meschino (D) in November. Representative Brian Mannal (D) elected not to run for re-election for his seat in the House’s 2nd Barnstable District, instead running for a position for the Senate’s Cape & Islands District. He was defeated by Julian Cyr (D). In the House, 17 incumbents faced primary opponents. Two of them, Marcos Devers (D) and Timothy Toomey Jr. (D), were defeated. In the state’s 7th Norfolk District, seven Democrats competed for the open seat left by Walter Timilty (D), who chose to run for the state’s Senate. William Driscoll Jr. won that race and is unopposed in the general election. In the House’s 12th Plymouth District, Peter Boncek (R) defeated Michael Cowett (R) by eight votes. Under Massachusetts law, Cowett has 10 days to petition for a recount.

Friday, September 9

 

What’s On Tap Next Week

Tuesday, September 13

  • Primary election: Delaware
    • State executives: Three state executive offices are up for election in 2016: governor, lieutenant governor, and insurance commissioner. Incumbent Governor Jack Markell (D) is term-limited and ineligible for re-election; U.S. Congressman John Carney was the sole Democrat to file for the race, which is currently rated safely Democratic. Two Republicans will vie for their parties' nomination. The lack of competitiveness in the race for governor is contentious this year. Republican candidate Colin Bonini has called Carney’s unopposed candidacy in the Democratic primary a “coronation,” while news outlets have criticized the automatic nomination as a feature of “The Delaware Way,” a term used to describe a long history of unopposed primaries in the state. Incumbent Insurance Commissioner Karen Weldin Stewart (D) is seeking a third term in office and will face a primary challenge from New Castle County sheriff Trinidad Navarro; businessman Jeff Cragg and former Sussex County Clerk of the Peace George Parish will compete for the Republican nomination. Parish earned statewide recognition in 2011 for stating that he would refuse to honor a proposed state law that would legalize same-sex civil unions in Delaware. He later complied with the legislation after it was passed.
    • The Democratic primary for lieutenant governor has attracted an unusually large candidate field in 2016. The office has been vacant since Matthew Denn (D) stepped down to become the state's attorney general in January 2015. Democrats have controlled the seat since 1993, and 2016 marks the first competitive primary election for lieutenant governor for either major party in over 30 years. Six candidates, all of whom have previously been elected to a local or statewide position, are competing for the Democratic nomination. Republican La Mar Gunn is unopposed in the primary election. Delaware is one of seven Democratic trifectas.
  • State legislature: In the Senate, there are only two primary challenges. Both of these challenges are between Democrats. In District 1, Joseph McCole will face incumbent Harris McDowell. In District 9, two challengers—Caitlin Olsen and Jack Walsh—will compete for an open seat most recently held by Karen Peterson (D).
    • In the House, there will be seven primary challenges. In five of these primaries, incumbents face primary challengers. There will be five Democratic primaries and two Republican primaries.
  • Primary election: New Hampshire
    • State executives: The office of governor is the only state executive race in 2016. New Hampshire governors serve two-year terms and incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) is running for a seat in the U.S. Senate, leaving the gubernatorial election an open race. Five Democrats and five Republicans are vying for their parties' nominations. Executive Councilor Chris Sununu (R), son of former Governor John Sununu, has placed first in every poll, including hypothetical general election matchups. However, he faces a considerable challenge in the Republican primary election: state Sen. Frank Edelblut has earned several key endorsements from prominent advocacy groups, including the left-leaning Marijuana Policy Project—which could earn him the support from the more moderate Republicans in the state—and Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas reported over $1 million in contributions as of August 24, over twice the amount that Sununu has raised.
    • The Democratic primary election is also competitive, though Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern has a clear lead in both fundraising and endorsements. Former Deputy Secretary of State Mark Connolly trails Van Ostern in fundraising, reporting about $550,000 in contributions compared to Van Ostern's $1.1 million, but has picked up a few key endorsements, as has Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand. New Hampshire currently has a divided government: if a Democrats lose the governorship, Republicans could pick up a trifecta. Alternatively, in Democrats retain the governorship and pick up majorities in the Senate and House—both are battleground chambers in 2016—Democrats could gain a trifecta. The general election is currently rated as a toss-up.
  • State legislature: In the Senate, there will be 11 primary contests. Three of these contests will be among Democrats, while the other eight will occur between Republicans. Of these primaries, there will only be one in which an incumbent is challenged. This is in District 14, where incumbent Sharon Carson (R) will face challenger Ludwig Haken.
    • In the House, 124 incumbents will face primary competition. There are 400 seats up for election in November, and 103 incumbents are not seeking re-election. The New Hampshire House of Representatives is the largest state legislative chamber in the country. The second-largest, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, has 203 seats.
  • Primary election: New York
    • State legislature: In the Senate, there are seven incumbents facing primary challengers. There are 50 incumbents running unopposed in the primary election.
    • In the State Assembly, there are 27 incumbents who will face opposition in the primary. Eleven incumbents did not seek re-election, two seats are vacant, and another 110 incumbents are set to advance past the primary without opposition.
    • Despite Democrats’ single-seat numerical majority, the Senate is controlled by Republican lawmakers through a power-sharing agreement. Democrats have a 64-seat majority in the House. Due to the Republican control of the Senate, New York is considered to be one of 20 states with a divided government.
  • Primary election: Rhode Island
    • State legislature: In the Senate, there will be nine primary contests. Incumbents are facing opposition in six of these primaries. In the District 17 Democratic primary, five Democrats will face off for the open seat left by a Republican incumbent.
    • In the House, 15 incumbents will face primary challenges. In District 13, four Democratic candidates will compete for an open seat last held by a Democrat.
    • Democrats have significant majorities in both chambers of the legislature. Gina Raimondo is the current Democratic governor of Rhode Island. The state is one of seven Democratic state government trifectas.
  • The South Carolina State Ethics Commission will hold a hearing regarding allegations that Treasurer Curtis Loftis (R) failed to disclose a personal relationship with an attorney he hired to represent the treasurer's office in a securities lawsuit against the Bank of New York Mellon in 2014. At the time, Michael Montgomery, the attorney in question, served on the board of a nonprofit with Loftis; Montgomery was paid $2 million upon resolution of the lawsuit. According to the state's ethics regulations, an elected official is prohibited from using his or her office for financial gains for "himself, a family member, an individual with whom he is associated, or a business with whom he is associated." Loftis has denied the charges. The commission had initially planned to schedule a public hearing on the matter; Tuesday's hearing will instead be private.

Friday, September 16

  • Special primary election: Missouri House of Representatives
    • A special primary election will be held to determine the winner of the Democratic primary in state House District 78 after the original results from August 2, 2016, were thrown out because of fraud allegations. Bruce Franks and incumbent Penny Hubbard ran in the Democratic primary. After the primary, Bruce Franks filed a lawsuit claiming that there were irregularities with the absentee ballots in the election. On primary election night, Franks appeared to have won by 90 votes, but a large number of absentee ballots gave incumbent Penny Hubbard the victory. Judge Rex Burlison ruled that 142 absentee ballots should not have been counted by the St. Louis Board of Elections because they did not arrive in sealed envelopes. State election law specifies that absentee ballots must arrive in sealed envelopes. With the state Senate and state House both controlled by Republicans and the office of governor held by Democratic Jay Nixon, Missouri is one of 20 states under divided government.

 

State government in session

Two states—Michigan and New Jersey—are in regular session; Ohio is in a skeleton (non-voting) session. Massachusetts is in an informal session.

  • Skeleton session: In a typical skeleton session, a clerk, a presiding officer, and another legislative member are the only people present. The presiding officer will convene the session day and adjourn it minutes later. Lawmakers who live more than 50 miles from the statehouse can deduct lodging and meal expenses on their federal income tax forms for each day the legislature is in skeleton or regular session.
  • Informal session: In an informal session, no attendance is taken and only a few members attend the session. These sessions address day-to-day business and non-controversial bills. The bills do not require debate or a roll-call vote, and they must be passed unanimously. If one member objects, the measure is blocked.
  • MI and NJ

Two states are in recess:

  • PA until 9/19
  • CA until 11/30

The following states have adjourned their regular sessions:

  • AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MO, MN, MS, NC, NE, NM, NH, NY, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY

Four states have no regular sessions in 2016:

  • MT, ND, NV, TX

All states whose initials appear in red or blue in the above list have unified Republican or Democratic Party control across the state house, the state senate, and the office of the governor. Ballotpedia identifies these as “trifectas.” There are seven Democratic and 23 Republican trifectas.

State government special elections

As of this week, 45 seats have been filled through legislative special elections in 2016. Nine involved party changes: four from Republican to Democratic (Oklahoma, SD 34; Massachusetts, HD Twelfth Essex; Kentucky, HD 62; and New Hampshire, HD Rockingham 21), three from Democratic to Republican (Texas, HD 118; Minnesota, HD 50B; and New York, SD 9), one from Democratic to independent (Texas, HD 120), and one from Republican to independent (Louisiana, HD 85). Another 11 (not including runoff elections) have been scheduled in seven states. An average of 37 seats were filled through special elections in each of the past three even years (2010: 26, 2012: 45, and 2014: 40).

Next week

Local

The Week in Review

2016 elections

  • In 2016, Ballotpedia is covering municipal elections across 46 of America's 100 largest cities by population, local judicial elections across all 39 states holding elections, school board elections across 643 of America's 1,000 largest school districts by student enrollment, all local ballot measures in California, and notable measures across the United States.
    • So far this year, Ballotpedia has covered 27 city elections, 27 states with local judicial elections, 298 school board elections, and 162 local ballot measures in California. Ballotpedia will be covering all of the approximately 450 local California measures on the ballot in November.
  • Most elections, including local elections, are held during spring and fall months. Summer and winter months contain relatively few elections and filing deadlines.

Monday, September 5

  • The city of Seattle missed a self-imposed deadline for a proposal related to civilian oversight of the city’s police. City Attorney Pete Holmes set the deadline before a federal judge in August 2016. Mayor Ed Murray (D) has been a proponent of this sort of oversight since November 2014. This delay has partially been due to a conflict between the mayor and the Community Police Commission, a civilian-advocacy body. The Seattle Police Officers’ Guild has also rejected such reforms and cites the attempts at reform as one of the reasons they have not yet signed a new contract with the city. Seattle is the 21st-largest city in the United States by population, and the largest in Washington.

Tuesday, September 6

  • Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) urged the Texas State Board of Education to ban a textbook on Mexican heritage that he said was offensive. Turner said the book, Mexican American Heritage, had a number of problematic passages. One specific example cited from the textbook claimed that Mexican laborers were "not reared to put in a full day's work so vigorously” when compared to “driven” industrialists. The textbook was the only one submitted to the state board on the subject of Mexican American history. Houston is the fourth-largest city in the United States by population and the largest city in Texas.
  • St. Louis County, Missouri, passed an ordinance to raise the minimum age to purchase tobacco products and e-cigarettes by a vote of 5-1. The legal age to purchase those products will now be 21 rather than the federally mandated 18. Although this does not affect the city of St. Louis, which is independent from the county, Mayor Francis Slay (D) said that he supported the city following suit. The law will go into effect on December 1, 2016, if it is signed by County Executive Steve Stenger. St. Louis County is the largest county by population in Missouri.
  • A study by Attendance Works revealed that half of the nation’s chronically absent students attend only 4 percent of the nation’s school districts. Chronic absenteeism is defined as a student missing 15 school days, which equates to about 10 percent of the total academic year. Nine out of 10 school districts reported at least one chronically absent student. The study used data from the 2013-2014 school year. Attendance Works is a project funded by the nonprofit Child and Family Policy Center.
  • In Idaho, a general election was held for two of the seven school board seats in the Boise School District. In the at-large race for seats with six-year terms, incumbent David Wagers ran for re-election against challengers Beth Oppenheimer and Monica Walker. Wagers and Oppenheimer won the two seats. The district is the largest in Idaho and served 27,275 students during the 2013-2014 school year, which is roughly 9.7 percent of all the public school students in Idaho.

Wednesday, September 7

  • In Minnesota, the St. Paul City Council passed an ordinance requiring the city’s private employers to offer paid sick leave for all employees. The city council approved the measure unanimously, and Mayor Chris Coleman (D) said that the state should follow the city’s example. St. Paul is the second city in Minnesota to approve paid sick leave, following Minneapolis passing a similar law in May 2016. More than two dozen cities nationwide have a similar ordinance. St. Paul is the 66th-largest city in the United States by population, and the second-largest in Minnesota.
  • The mayor of Nazareth, Pennsylvania, resigned after he was charged with stealing more than $8,000 from the social club of a fire company. Carl Strye, Jr.’s resignation came after prosecutors said last month they would recommend him to an accelerated rehabilitation program and remove the felony charge from his record if he resigned. Strye was president of the social club from 1987 to 2013. The city of Nazareth had a population of 5,746 as of the 2010 census.

Thursday, September 8

  • In California, Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf (D) announced the firing of four police officers and the suspension without pay of seven others. This disciplinary action came in the aftermath of a city investigation that found a number of officers had sexual relations with an underaged sex worker and then attempted to cover it up. The Oakland Police Department has been embroiled in controversy for months, leading to the resignation of four separate police chiefs and calls for Schaaf’s resignation. Oakland is the 45th-largest city in the United States by population, and the eighth-largest in California.
  • U.S. District Judge Victoria Roberts sentenced four Detroit-area principals to six months to a year of prison. The principals were involved in a vendor’s plan to scam Detroit Public Schools out of $2.7 million. The four received kickbacks from school supplies vendor Norman Shy in exchange for approving fake invoices, meaning the school district paid for supplies it never actually received. Shy received five years in prison for his role in the scam. The district is the largest in Michigan and served 51,979 students during the 2013-2014 school year, which is roughly 3.3 percent of all the public school students in Michigan.

Friday, September 9

  • FILING DEADLINE: Deadline passed to file in the general election for 10 school board seats across five of the largest school districts in Mississippi by enrollment. The election will be held on November 8, 2016. During the 2013-2014 school year, these school districts served 88,721 students, which was 18 percent of all Mississippi public school students.

 

What’s On Tap Next Week

Monday, September 12

  • Chelan County Superior Court Judge T.W. Small will hold a hearing to determine if a recall effort against Spokane Mayor David Condon will proceed. City resident David Green filed a petition seeking Condon's recall due to allegations that the mayor withheld information during an investigation of Police Chief Frank Straub. State law requires a recall petition to show proof of malfeasance or misfeasance before signature gathering is initiated.

Tuesday, September 13

  • New York will hold a primary election for 10 judicial offices across the state. None of the 19 candidates competing in the primaries are incumbents. New York’s fusion-style voting means that candidates may run for nomination from multiple parties. This often leads to candidates who are primarily running as a Democrat or Republican vying for the nominations of many third parties as well. Winners of this primary will advance to the general election on November 8.

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