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The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-nation trade deal, became a major issue in the 2016 presidential and congressional elections; however, multiple polls showed that many Americans were unsure what the trade deal was and whether it would have been good or bad for the country.
On January 23, 2017, President Donald Trump (R) signed a memorandum that withdrew the United States from negotiations involving the TPP. The action ended U.S. involvement in the multilateral trade deal, which had not been ratified by Congress.[1] The future of the TPP for the remaining nations was uncertain after the U.S. withdrew.
- See also: Federal policy on trade, 2017-2020
HIGHLIGHTS
An August 2016 Morning Consult (MC) poll revealed a slight increase in support for the TPP and a slight increase in voters' knowledge of it since MC's March 2016 poll; however 62 percent of those polled still said that they knew "not much" or "nothing at all" about the 12-nation agreement.
A March 2016 Morning Consult poll found that only 24 percent of Republicans, who historically supported free trade, supported the TPP, while 34 percent opposed the deal.A March 2016 Pew Research Center poll found that of voters supporting Hillary Clinton (D), Bernie Sanders (D), Ted Cruz (R), John Kasich (R), and Donald Trump (R), all of whom were still candidates for president at the time, Clinton's supporters were the most supportive of free trade. Fifty-eight percent of Clinton's supporters said that free trade was a "good thing," and 31 percent said it was a "bad thing." Trump's supporters expressed the most negative opinions about free trade deals. Only 27 percent said that free trade was a "good thing," and 67 percent said it was a "bad thing."
Polling on the TPP conducted by Morning Consult (MC) in August 2016 revealed a slight increase in support for the TPP sice March 2016 and a slight increase in voters' knowledge of it, although 62 percent still said that they knew "not much" or "nothing at all" about the 12-nation agreement, a 10 percent decrease from MC's March 2016 poll. Similarly, a February/March 2016 Caddell & Associates poll found that 51 percent of those surveyed did not know enough to have an opinion about the TPP.[2][3][4]
| PBS, "Hillary Clinton says she doesn't support Trans-Pacific Partnership," October 7, 2015.
|
The proposed goal of the TPP was to make it easier for businesses in the United States and the 11 other Asia-Pacific countries to export and import goods by eliminating taxes, creating a fair regulatory environment, and removing other trade barriers. The deal also included provisions aimed at protecting workers, the environment, and intellectual property.
Although many voters did not know the details of the thirty-chapter deal, anti-trade rhetoric from the 2016 presidential candidates may have influenced some to oppose the TPP and free trade in general. President Donald Trump and former Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders repeatedly criticized the TPP and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for costing American workers their jobs. Although Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton initially supported the TPP during her time as secretary of state, she also criticized the TPP on the campaign trail, saying, that the final deal "didn't meet my standards." She argued that the deal would not help create new jobs or raise wages.[5]
- See also: 2016 presidential candidates on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal
Trump's anti-TPP and anti-free trade message resonated with Republican voters who historically supported free trade. A March 2016 Pew Research Center poll found that “Among registered Republican voters, Trump supporters stand out for their negative view of free trade: 67% of Trump supporters say free trade agreements have been a bad thing for the U.S., while just 27% say they have been a good thing.” In contrast, Democratic voters, who historically opposed free trade, were more optimistic about the deal. The Pew Research Center poll also found that “By a 58% to 31% margin, more Clinton supporters among registered Democrats say free trade agreements have been a good thing than a bad thing for the U.S. Views among Democratic backers of Sanders are similar (55% good thing vs. 38% bad thing).”[6]
| Donald Trump discusses the TPP during a presidential debate, November 13, 2015.
|
A candidate’s stance on the TPP may have impacted whether he or she was elected or re-elected in November 2016. According to a February/March 2016 Caddell & Associates poll, 54 percent of voters said that they were much more or somewhat more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who opposed the TPP, and 58 percent of voters were much more or somewhat more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who opposed the deal. One caveat to the poll was that voters were asked, “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for President who promises to put a stop to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and enact trade policies that put U.S. jobs first?" This question seemed to assume that the TPP would not "put U.S. jobs first," possibly influencing responses.[3][4]
Polls showed that Americans knew even less about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a trade deal negotiated by the U.S and the European Union, than TPP. A February 2016 Bertelsmann Stiftung/YouGov found that 46 percent of voters said that they did not know enough about the deal to have an opinion of it, and 77 percent said that they were not actively taking part in the TTIP debate.[7]
Voters’ view on TPP, TTIP, and free trade from 2015 to 2016 can be viewed below. Information about TPP and TTIP can be found here and here.
Polls: Opinions of TPP, TTIP, and free trade
Opinions of TPP
| Opinions of TPP
|
| "And based on what you have seen, read, or heard, do you support or oppose the free trade agreement with eleven countries called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, also known as TPP?" |
| Poll |
Strongly support |
Somewhat support | Somewhat oppose | Strongly oppose | Don't know/ No opinion | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Morning Consult
August 8-10, 2016
| 10% | 25% | 13% | 9% | 43% | +/-2 | 1,998 |
|
The results of the March 2016 Morning Consult poll showed that, although Democrats historically opposed free trade deals, 32 percent supported the deal, the highest percentage of support from the three parties polled. Only 24 percent of Republicans, who historically supported free trade, supported the TPP, while 34 percent opposed the deal. In addition, the poll found that "White-collar workers are 8 percentage points more likely to support TPP than blue-collar workers, while blue-collar workers are 5 percentage points more likely to oppose than white-collar workers."[8][9]
A February/March poll conducted by Caddell & Associates polled voters on their opinion of the TPP and polled them again after explaining the trade deal and the providing the arguments for and against it. Initially, 15 percent said that they supported the deal, and 22 percent said that they opposed it. After hearing arguments for and against the deal, 22 percent supported the deal, while 53 percent said they opposed it. The poll also found that, after being given information about the TPP, 66 percent of Republicans opposed the deal. The results appear below.[3][4]
| "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for President who promises to put a stop to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and enact trade policies that put U.S. jobs first?" |
| Poll |
Much more likely |
Somewhat more likely | Somewhat less likely | Much less likely | Don't know | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Caddell & Associates
February 23 – March 3, 2016
| 24% | 30% | 12% | 6% | 29% | +/-2.83 | 1,950 |
|
| "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S. Congress who promises to put a stop to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and enact trade policies that put U.S. jobs first?" |
| Poll |
Much more likely |
Somewhat more likely | Somewhat less likely | Much less likely | Don't know | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Caddell & Associates
February 23 – March 3, 2016
| 27% | 31% | 11% | 5% | 27% | +/-2.83 | 1,950 |
|
| "All else equal, would you like the next president to be Someone who supports the international trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or someone who opposes this agreement?" (Opinions of registered voters.) |
| Poll |
Someone who supports the Trans-Pacific Partnership |
Someone who opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Washington Post/ABC News
October 15-18, 2015
| 41% | 34% | +/-3.5 | 1,001 |
|
| If a presidential candidate “[s]upports signing a trade agreement with selected Asian and Pacific Rim countries,” would it “make you feel more favorable or less favorable toward a presidential candidate, or "would it "not make a difference to you either way.” |
| Poll |
Much More Favorable |
Somewhat More Favorable | Somewhat Less Favorable | Much Less Favorable | No Difference | Not Sure | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
June 14-18, 2015
| 8% | 23% | 17% | 14% | 32% | 6% | +/-3.10 | 1,000 |
|
| "Do you think that the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement currently being negotiated between the US and various Asian countries, would be good or
bad for the United States?" |
| Poll |
Very Good |
Somewhat Good | Somewhat Bad | Very Bad | Not Sure | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
YouGov.com Poll
May 10-11, 2015
| 6% | 23% | 15% | 14% | 42% | +/-4 | 1,000 |
|
| "Do you think this trade agreement [TPP] would be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?" |
| Poll |
Good thing |
Bad thing | Haven't heard enough | Neither good nor bad | Don't know/ refused | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Pew Research Center
April 13 - May 3, 2015
| 49% | 29% | 12% | 1% | 9% | +/-3.6 | 1,003 |
|
|
Opinions of TPP's potential impact on the economy
| Opinions of TPP's potential impact on the economy
|
| "Removing the U.S. from the 12-country free trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership would be..." |
| Poll |
Very effective in improving the economy |
Somewhat effective in improving the economy | Not too effective in improving the economy | Not effective at all in improving the economy | No opinion | Sample Size |
|
Gallup
September 23-27, 2015
| 16% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 15% | 816 |
|
|
Knowledge of TPP
| Knowledge of TPP
|
| "How much have you seen, read, or heard recently about the trade agreement between the United States and eleven countries connected by the Pacific Ocean called the
Trans-Pacific Partnership, also known as TPP?" |
| Poll |
A lot |
Some | Not much | Nothing at all | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Morning Consult
August 8-10, 2016
| 8% | 29% | 29% | 33% | +/-2 | 1,998 |
|
| "How much have you seen, read, or heard about the free trade agreement with eleven countries in Asia and Latin America called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, also known as TPP?" |
| Poll |
A lot |
Some | Not much | Nothing at all | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Morning Consult
March 11-16, 2016
| 6% | 22% | 31% | 41% | +/-1 | 10,090 |
|
| "As you may know, the Obama administration is negotiating a trade agreement with 11 countries bordering on the Pacific called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. How much have you heard or read about the Trans-Pacific Partnership a lot, some, not much or nothing at all?" |
| Poll |
A lot |
Some | Not much | Nothing at all | Don't know/ no answer | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
CBS/ New York Times
May 28-31, 2015
| 6% | 16% | 30% | 48% | 0% | +/-3 | 1,022 |
|
|
Impact of TPP on job creation
| Impact of TPP on job creation
|
| "From what you have heard or read, do you think the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement would increase the number of jobs available in the United States, decrease the number of jobs available, or won't it make much difference?" |
| Poll |
Increase |
Decrease | Won't make much difference | Don't know/ no answer | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
CBS/ New York Times
May 28-31, 2015
| 16% | 22% | 29% | 33% | +/-3 | 1,022 |
|
|
Opinions of TPP and currency manipulation
| Opinions of TPP and currency manipulation
|
| "If the Obama administration supports an international trade agreement that does not specifically prohibit currency manipulation, do you think the United States Congress should support or oppose that trade deal?" |
| Poll |
Support |
Oppose | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Ipsos Poll
May 1-6, 2015
| 27% | 73% | +/-3.5 | 1,687 |
|
|
Opinions of Sanders' and Clinton's supporters on TPP
| Opinions of Sanders' and Clinton's supporters on TPP
|
|
A June 2016 Chicago Council poll found a disparity in support for TPP among Democrats. Seventy-four percent of Hillary Clinton's supporters said that they were in favor of TPP, while 56 percent of Sanders' supporters said they were in favor of the trade deal.[10]
|
Opinions of TTIP
| Opinions of TTIP
|
| "Do you think TTIP is a good thing or a bad thing for the United States?" |
| Poll |
A good thing |
A bad thing | Haven’t heard enough | Neither good nor bad | Don’t know/ Refused | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Bertelsmann Stiftung/YouGov
February 23, 2016
| 15% | 18% | 46% | 4% | 17% | +/-3.1 | 1,126 |
|
| "Are you interested in TTIP?" |
| Poll |
Yes |
No | Don’t know/ Refused | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Bertelsmann Stiftung/YouGov
February 23, 2016
| 44% | 34% | 22% | +/-3.1 | 1,126 |
|
| "Are you taking part actively in the debate on TTIP?" |
| Poll |
Yes |
No | Don’t know/ Refused | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Bertelsmann Stiftung/YouGov
February 23, 2016
| 11% | 77% | 12% | +/-3.1 | 1,126 |
|
| "Do you think that TTIP, a free trade agreement currently being negotiated between the European Union and the United States, would be good or bad for the United
States?" |
| Poll |
Very Good |
Somewhat Good | Somewhat Bad | Very Bad | Not Sure | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
YouGov.com Poll
May 10-11, 2015
| 7% | 22% | 14% | 10% | 48% | +/-4 | 1,000 |
|
|
Opinions of free trade
| Opinions of free trade
|
|
A survey conducted by the Progressive Policy Institute in June 2016 examined the views of voters on trade agreements in four swing states: Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada. Overall, swing state voters expressed positive views about U.S. trade deals.[11]
"Which is closer to your view on trade agreements that have been passed in the United States?"
| "In general, do you think that free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a good thing or a bad thing for the United States?" |
| Poll |
Good thing |
Bad thing | Don't know/ Refused | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Pew Research
March 17-27, 2016
| 51% | 39% | 10% | +/-2.4 | 2,254 |
|
| "Thinking about the financial situation of you and your family… Do you think free trade agreements
have definitely helped, probably helped, probably hurt, or definitely hurt the financial situation of
you and your family?" |
| Poll |
Definitely helped |
Probably helped | Probably hurt | Definitely hurt | Neither/ Doesn't affect me/ Hasn't helped or hurt | Don't know/ Refused | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Pew Research
March 17-27, 2016
| 6% | 39% | 26% | 11% | 10% | 8% | +/-2.4 | 2,254 |
|
| "In general, do you think that free trade between the United States and foreign countries has helped the United States, has hurt the United States, or has not made much of a difference either way?" |
| Poll |
Helped us |
Hurt us | Hasn't made much of a difference | Don't know/ No opinion | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Morning Consult
March 11-16, 2016
| 25% | 40% | 14% | 20% | +/-1 | 10,090 |
|
| "What do you think foreign trade means for America? Do you see foreign trade more as – an opportunity for economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy from foreign imports?" |
| Poll |
Opportunity for economic growth |
Threat to economy | Both | Neither | No opinion | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Gallup
February 3-7, 2016
| 58% | 34% | 3% | 1% | 3% | +/-4 | 1,021 |
|
| "In general, do you think that free trade between the United States and foreign countries has helped the United States, has hurt the United States, or has not made much of a difference either way?" |
| Poll |
Has helped the U.S. |
Has hurt the U.S. | Hasn't made much of a difference | Not sure | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
June 15-18, 2015
| 29% | 34% | 28% | 9% | +/-3.10 | 745 |
|
| "Overall, do you think that free trade between the United States and other countries has been good or bad for the United States?" |
| Poll |
Very Good |
Somewhat Good | Somewhat Bad | Very Bad | Not Sure | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
YouGov.com Poll
May 10-11, 2015
| 11% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 24% | +/-4 | 1,000 |
|
|
Opinions of free trade by support for presidential candidate
| Opinions of free trade by support for presidential candidate
|
|
A March 2016 Pew Research Center poll found that of voters supporting Hillary Clinton (D), Bernie Sanders (D), Ted Cruz (R), John Kasich (R), and Donald Trump (R), all of whom were still candidates for president at the time of the poll, Clinton's supporters were the most supportive of free trade. Fifty-eight percent of Clinton's supporters said that free trade was a "good thing," and 31 percent said it was a "bad thing." Trump's supporters expressed the most negative opinions about free trade deals. Only 27 percent said that free trade was a "good thing," and 67 percent said it was a "bad thing.[12]
|
See also
External links
- ↑ WhiteHouse.gov, "Presidential Memorandum Regarding Withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations and Agreement," accessed February 9, 2017
- ↑ Morning Consult, "Knowledge of TPP," accessed July 29, 2016
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 GetLiberty.org, "Topline Report March 10, 2016," accessed July 29, 2016
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 GetLiberty.org, "Survey of US Voters Caddell & Associates March 10, 2016," accessed July 29, 2016
- ↑ The Washington Post, "The CNN Democratic debate transcript, annotated," October 12, 2015
- ↑ Pew Research, "Republicans, especially Trump supporters, see free trade deals as bad for U.S." accessed July 29, 2016
- ↑ Bertelsmann Stiftung, "Attitudes to global trade and TTIP in Germany and the United States," accessed July 29, 2016
- ↑ Morning Consult, "As Trade Plays in Campaigns, Most Americans Don’t Know What TPP Is," accessed July 29, 2016
- ↑ Morning Consult, "Overall Opinion of TPP," accessed July 29, 2016
- ↑ The Chicago Council, "Core Sanders Supporters' Economic Pessimism Sets Them Apart from Clinton Supporters," accessed July 29, 2016
- ↑ Progressive Policy Institute, "Swing Voters In Swing States Hold Balance In 2016," accessed August 3, 2016
- ↑ Pew Research, "Republicans, especially Trump supporters, see free trade deals as bad for U.S.," accessed July 29, 2016
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Ballotpedia's scope changes periodically, and this article type is no longer actively created or maintained. If you would like to help our coverage grow, consider donating to Ballotpedia.
