The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-nation trade deal, became a major issue in the 2016 presidential and congressional elections; however, multiple polls showed that many Americans were unsure what the trade deal was and whether it would have been good or bad for the country.
On January 23, 2017, President Donald Trump (R) signed a memorandum that withdrew the United States from negotiations involving the TPP. The action ended U.S. involvement in the multilateral trade deal, which had not been ratified by Congress.[1] The future of the TPP for the remaining nations was uncertain after the U.S. withdrew.
- See also: Federal policy on trade, 2017-2020
| HIGHLIGHTS |
| An August 2016 Morning Consult (MC) poll revealed a slight increase in support for the TPP and a slight increase in voters' knowledge of it since MC's March 2016 poll; however 62 percent of those polled still said that they knew "not much" or "nothing at all" about the 12-nation agreement. |
| A March 2016 Morning Consult poll found that only 24 percent of Republicans, who historically supported free trade, supported the TPP, while 34 percent opposed the deal. |
| A March 2016 Pew Research Center poll found that of voters supporting Hillary Clinton (D), Bernie Sanders (D), Ted Cruz (R), John Kasich (R), and Donald Trump (R), all of whom were still candidates for president at the time, Clinton's supporters were the most supportive of free trade. Fifty-eight percent of Clinton's supporters said that free trade was a "good thing," and 31 percent said it was a "bad thing." Trump's supporters expressed the most negative opinions about free trade deals. Only 27 percent said that free trade was a "good thing," and 67 percent said it was a "bad thing." |
Polling on the TPP conducted by Morning Consult (MC) in August 2016 revealed a slight increase in support for the TPP sice March 2016 and a slight increase in voters' knowledge of it, although 62 percent still said that they knew "not much" or "nothing at all" about the 12-nation agreement, a 10 percent decrease from MC's March 2016 poll. Similarly, a February/March 2016 Caddell & Associates poll found that 51 percent of those surveyed did not know enough to have an opinion about the TPP.[2][3][4]
| PBS, "Hillary Clinton says she doesn't support Trans-Pacific Partnership," October 7, 2015.
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The proposed goal of the TPP was to make it easier for businesses in the United States and the 11 other Asia-Pacific countries to export and import goods by eliminating taxes, creating a fair regulatory environment, and removing other trade barriers. The deal also included provisions aimed at protecting workers, the environment, and intellectual property.
Although many voters did not know the details of the thirty-chapter deal, anti-trade rhetoric from the 2016 presidential candidates may have influenced some to oppose the TPP and free trade in general. President Donald Trump and former Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders repeatedly criticized the TPP and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for costing American workers their jobs. Although Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton initially supported the TPP during her time as secretary of state, she also criticized the TPP on the campaign trail, saying, that the final deal "didn't meet my standards." She argued that the deal would not help create new jobs or raise wages.[5]
- See also: 2016 presidential candidates on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal
Trump's anti-TPP and anti-free trade message resonated with Republican voters who historically supported free trade. A March 2016 Pew Research Center poll found that “Among registered Republican voters, Trump supporters stand out for their negative view of free trade: 67% of Trump supporters say free trade agreements have been a bad thing for the U.S., while just 27% say they have been a good thing.” In contrast, Democratic voters, who historically opposed free trade, were more optimistic about the deal. The Pew Research Center poll also found that “By a 58% to 31% margin, more Clinton supporters among registered Democrats say free trade agreements have been a good thing than a bad thing for the U.S. Views among Democratic backers of Sanders are similar (55% good thing vs. 38% bad thing).”[6]
| Donald Trump discusses the TPP during a presidential debate, November 13, 2015.
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A candidate’s stance on the TPP may have impacted whether he or she was elected or re-elected in November 2016. According to a February/March 2016 Caddell & Associates poll, 54 percent of voters said that they were much more or somewhat more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who opposed the TPP, and 58 percent of voters were much more or somewhat more likely to vote for a congressional candidate who opposed the deal. One caveat to the poll was that voters were asked, “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for President who promises to put a stop to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and enact trade policies that put U.S. jobs first?" This question seemed to assume that the TPP would not "put U.S. jobs first," possibly influencing responses.[3][4]
Polls showed that Americans knew even less about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a trade deal negotiated by the U.S and the European Union, than TPP. A February 2016 Bertelsmann Stiftung/YouGov found that 46 percent of voters said that they did not know enough about the deal to have an opinion of it, and 77 percent said that they were not actively taking part in the TTIP debate.[7]
Voters’ view on TPP, TTIP, and free trade from 2015 to 2016 can be viewed below. Information about TPP and TTIP can be found here and here.
| Opinions of TPP
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| "And based on what you have seen, read, or heard, do you support or oppose the free trade agreement with eleven countries called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, also known as TPP?" |
| Poll |
Strongly support |
Somewhat support | Somewhat oppose | Strongly oppose | Don't know/ No opinion | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Morning Consult
August 8-10, 2016
| 10% | 25% | 13% | 9% | 43% | +/-2 | 1,998 |
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The results of the March 2016 Morning Consult poll showed that, although Democrats historically opposed free trade deals, 32 percent supported the deal, the highest percentage of support from the three parties polled. Only 24 percent of Republicans, who historically supported free trade, supported the TPP, while 34 percent opposed the deal. In addition, the poll found that "White-collar workers are 8 percentage points more likely to support TPP than blue-collar workers, while blue-collar workers are 5 percentage points more likely to oppose than white-collar workers."[8][9]
A February/March poll conducted by Caddell & Associates polled voters on their opinion of the TPP and polled them again after explaining the trade deal and the providing the arguments for and against it. Initially, 15 percent said that they supported the deal, and 22 percent said that they opposed it. After hearing arguments for and against the deal, 22 percent supported the deal, while 53 percent said they opposed it. The poll also found that, after being given information about the TPP, 66 percent of Republicans opposed the deal. The results appear below.[3][4]
| "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for President who promises to put a stop to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and enact trade policies that put U.S. jobs first?" |
| Poll |
Much more likely |
Somewhat more likely | Somewhat less likely | Much less likely | Don't know | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Caddell & Associates
February 23 – March 3, 2016
| 24% | 30% | 12% | 6% | 29% | +/-2.83 | 1,950 |
|
| "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for U.S. Congress who promises to put a stop to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and enact trade policies that put U.S. jobs first?" |
| Poll |
Much more likely |
Somewhat more likely | Somewhat less likely | Much less likely | Don't know | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Caddell & Associates
February 23 – March 3, 2016
| 27% | 31% | 11% | 5% | 27% | +/-2.83 | 1,950 |
|
| "All else equal, would you like the next president to be Someone who supports the international trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or someone who opposes this agreement?" (Opinions of registered voters.) |
| Poll |
Someone who supports the Trans-Pacific Partnership |
Someone who opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Washington Post/ABC News
October 15-18, 2015
| 41% | 34% | +/-3.5 | 1,001 |
|
| If a presidential candidate “[s]upports signing a trade agreement with selected Asian and Pacific Rim countries,” would it “make you feel more favorable or less favorable toward a presidential candidate, or "would it "not make a difference to you either way.” |
| Poll |
Much More Favorable |
Somewhat More Favorable | Somewhat Less Favorable | Much Less Favorable | No Difference | Not Sure | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey
June 14-18, 2015
| 8% | 23% | 17% | 14% | 32% | 6% | +/-3.10 | 1,000 |
|
| "Do you think that the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement currently being negotiated between the US and various Asian countries, would be good or
bad for the United States?" |
| Poll |
Very Good |
Somewhat Good | Somewhat Bad | Very Bad | Not Sure | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
YouGov.com Poll
May 10-11, 2015
| 6% | 23% | 15% | 14% | 42% | +/-4 | 1,000 |
|
| "Do you think this trade agreement [TPP] would be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?" |
| Poll |
Good thing |
Bad thing | Haven't heard enough | Neither good nor bad | Don't know/ refused | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|
Pew Research Center
April 13 - May 3, 2015
| 49% | 29% | 12% | 1% | 9% | +/-3.6 | 1,003 |
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