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Top-two and top-four battleground primaries, 2024
| 2024 top-two and top-four battleground primary elections |
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| Battleground primaries |
| Democratic Party primaries, 2024 Republican Party primaries, 2024 Top-two and top-four battleground primaries, 2024 U.S. House battleground primaries, 2024 |
| Battlegrounds by office |
| U.S. Senate U.S. House battlegrounds Gubernatorial battlegrounds |
| 2024 election coverage |
| U.S. House elections State executive elections 2024 election results |
Ballotpedia identified ten top-two and top-four battleground primaries in 2024. To see how our list of battlegrounds has changed over the course of the year, click here.
A top-two primary system allows all candidates to run and all voters to vote in one primary election, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, moving on to the general election. As of 2024, two states—California and Washington—used a top-two primary system for congressional and state-level elections.[1][2] California's top-two primaries took place on March 5, and Washingon's top-two primaries took place on August 6.
A top-four primary system allows all candidates to run and all voters to vote in one primary election, with the top four vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, moving on to the general election.[3] The 2022 election was the first time Alaska used this system. In 2020, Alaska voters approved a ballot initiative establishing the system for state executive, state legislative, and congressional elections. The initiative also established ranked-choice voting for general elections for the aforementioned offices and the presidency. Alaska's top-four primaries took place on August 20.
In states that do not use a top-two or top-four system, all major parties are usually able to put forward a candidate for the general election if they choose to. In these systems, major parties can sometimes not be able to field a candidate in the general election if they fail to advance through the primary.[4][5]
Click here for information on Democratic Party battleground primaries in 2024.
Click here for information on Republican Party battleground primaries in 2024.
Click on the links below to learn more about battleground races of other types:
Criteria
It is typically difficult to predict how competitive primaries will be until after filing deadlines take place. However, Ballotpedia used a number of factors to give insight into the most interesting 2024 primary elections. Factors that were used to determine the competitiveness of primaries included:
- Whether or not the seat was open (retiring or resigning incumbent)
- Notable endorsements of multiple candidates
- Significant fundraising from multiple candidates
- Number of candidates
- Incumbent's years in office (if seeking re-election)
- Whether or not the district's general election was expected to be a battleground
U.S. Senate primaries
There was one U.S. Senate top-two or top-four battleground primary in 2024:
U.S. House primaries
There were 7 top-two or top-four battleground primaries for U.S. House seats in 2024.
- California's 20th Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary)
- California's 22nd Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary)
- California's 30th Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary)
- California's 31st Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary)
- California's 47th Congressional District election, 2024 (March 5 top-two primary)
- Washington's 4th Congressional District election, 2024 (August 6 top-two primary)
- Washington's 5th Congressional District election, 2024 (August 6 top-two primary)
State executive primaries
There were two state executive top-two or top-four battleground primaries in 2024:
- Washington gubernatorial election, 2024 (August 6 top-two primary)
- Washington Attorney General election, 2024 (August 6 top-two primary)
Change log
This section lists every change that was made to our battleground list between the launch of the page in December 2023 and the close of the primary election season.
- July 19, 2024: Added WA-5.
- June 21, 2024: Added WA AG.
- January 26, 2024: Removed CA-12.
- December 21, 2023: Launched initial battlegrounds list with nine races.[6]
Noteworthy past top-two primaries
This section highlights past top-two battleground primaries to illustrate how top-two primaries can produce outcomes that are not typical in other primary systems.
- In the 2012 primary for California's 31st Congressional District, Republicans Gary Miller and Bob Dutton both advanced from the top-two primary, leaving the Democrats with no general election candidate. Miller received 26.7 percent of the vote and Dutton received 24.8 percent of the vote. Four Democratic candidates split the remaining 50 percent of the vote, with the top candidate receiving 22.6 percent.
- In the 2014 primary for California's 25th Congressional District, Republicans Tony Strickland and Stephen Knight both advanced from the top-two primary, leaving the Democrats with no general election candidate. Strickland received 29.6 percent of the vote and Knight received 28.4 percent of the vote. The two Democratic candidates split 32 percent of the vote 22-9, which eliminated them both from the general election.
- In the 2018 primary for California's 8th Congressional District, Republicans Paul Cook and Tim Donnelly both advanced from the top-two primary, leaving the Democrats with no general election candidate. Cook received 40.8 percent of the vote and Donnelly received 22.8 percent of the vote. Three Democratic candidates split the remaining 36 percent of the vote, with the top candidate receiving 21.7 percent.
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Alex Padilla California Secretary of State, "Primary Elections in California," accessed October 25, 2019
- ↑ Louisiana is not included here because although it uses a majority-vote system, a candidate may win the election outright in the first round. In California and Washington, candidates cannot win the election outright in the top-two primary.
- ↑ Fairvote, "Top Four," accessed September 13, 2017
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed October 25, 2019
- ↑ FairVote, "Primaries," accessed October 25, 2019
- ↑ The original nine races identified were: CA Senate, CA-12, CA-20, CA-22, CA-30, CA-31, CA-47, WA-4, and WA Gov.
