Top 10 congressional races, 2016

Top races of 2016
Ballotpedia's top 10 races of 2016
Top 10 congressional races
Top 10 state-level races
Top 10 local-level races

October 31, 2016
By The Federal Desk

See also: U.S. House battlegrounds, 2016 and U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2016

Over half a million officials hold elected office in the United States. Thousands of elections are held each year, so it's difficult to know which ones to watch—and why. Ballotpedia has identified 10 races to watch in the 2016 election cycle. These are the races that will affect partisan control of government, future judicial appointments, and countless policies governing everyday life throughout the country. They are notable for their competitiveness, their ability to garner media attention, and their implications for future governance.

At the federal level, Ballotpedia is watching the congressional races that could alter the partisan balance of both chambers. The top U.S. House elections are highlighted by two rematches of 2014 races, one of which is a rematch of a rematch. We're also looking to seven toss-up races for U.S. Senate, six of which have Republican incumbents. Here are your top 10 races for federal office in 2016.

Additionally, Ballotpedia is tracking the presidential battlegrounds. See the full coverage of those here.

#10: Maine's 2nd District

Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016:

Maine's 2nd District is one of the most competitive House races in the country. Incumbent Bruce Poliquin (R) is seeking re-election to his second term and will face former state Sen. Emily Cain (D) in a rematch of the 2014 race. Poliquin defeated Cain in 2014 by a margin of 5 percent. Heading into November, both polling and fundraising totals show a tight race. Poliquin is especially vulnerable due to the coinciding presidential election. The district supported President Obama by a margin of 12 percent in 2008 and 9 percent in 2012.

#9: Texas' 23rd District

Texas' 23rd Congressional District election, 2016:

Texas' 23rd District is the only competitive district among the state's 36 congressional districts. Incumbent Will Hurd (R) is seeking re-election to his second term and will face former incumbent Pete Gallego (D) in a rematch of the 2014 race. Hurd narrowly defeated Gallego by 2.1 percent in 2014 to take the seat. Hurd is especially vulnerable due to the coinciding presidential election. The 23rd District is a heavily rural and Hispanic district. Donald Trump's unpopularity among Hispanic voters is likely to make re-election more difficult for Hurd.

#8: New Hampshire's 1st District

New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2016:

New Hampshire's 1st District is perhaps the most volatile U.S. House district in the country. Incumbent Frank Guinta (R) is seeking re-election to his second consecutive term and will face former incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D) in their fourth consecutive general election battle. The two candidates have swapped control of the district since 2010, and the trend appears likely to continue in 2016. Heading into November, both polling and fundraising totals show the incumbent to be a slight underdog in the race. Additionally, businessman Shawn O'Connor (independent) has been self-funding and is likely to draw a significant portion of the general election vote.

#7: Florida Senate

United States Senate election in Florida, 2016:

Florida's U.S. Senate race is one of the battleground races that will determine which party controls the Senate following the election. Despite his initial claims to the contrary, incumbent Marco Rubio (R) decided to seek re-election following his unsuccessful presidential run. He will face Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) in the general election. Rubio has been a favorite since his entry into the race in June, but he has consistently led by a small margin of less than 5 percent. Additionally, Florida was won by President Obama by narrow margins in the last two presidential elections.

#6: Missouri Senate

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2016:

Missouri's U.S. Senate race is the most recent addition to our battleground races. Incumbent Roy Blunt (R) will face Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) in the general election. While the race was initially expected to be noncompetitive, polling has shown a much closer race than anticipated. As a result, both the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund began pouring money into the race. Missouri supported the Republican nominee in the last two presidential elections, so it is still expected to be an uphill battle for Kander.

#5: Indiana Senate

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016:

Indiana's U.S. Senate race is another race that was initially rated safely Republican. It became a battleground race following former Sen. Evan Bayh's entry into the race. Bayh entered the race with solid name recognition and over $10 million cash on hand from his previous Senate campaign. Bayh and Rep. Todd Young (R) will compete in the general election. The seat is open following Sen. Dan Coats' decision to retire rather than seek re-election. Bayh has maintained a small lead in the polls since his entry into the race in July.

#4: North Carolina Senate

United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2016:

North Carolina's U.S. Senate race was added our list of battleground races in August. Incumbent Richard Burr (R) will face former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D) in the election. Ross was not initially expected to present a strong challenge, but polling revealed a close race. Burr does hold a significant fundraising edge over the challenger and a small lead in recent polling as well. Additionally, North Carolina has been a swing state in the previous two presidential elections. President Barack Obama won the state by .33 percent in 2008, while Mitt Romney took the state by 2.04 percent of the vote in 2012.

#3: Pennsylvania Senate

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016:

Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race is among the closest races in the country. Incumbent Pat Toomey (R) is seeking re-election to his second term and will face Katie McGinty (D). Polling has shown a back-and-forth race between the two candidates, with Toomey maintaining a 1.8 percent average lead. The race is close enough that the outcome of the presidential election is likely to play a large role in determining the winner. Toomey has attempted to distance himself from Donald Trump, while McGinty has sought to tie the two together.

#2: New Hampshire Senate

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016:

New Hampshire's U.S. Senate race is likely to be the closest Senate race of the election cycle. Incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) is seeking re-election to her second term and will face Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) in the election. This is another race that has been heavily influenced by the presidential race. Ayotte’s strategy has been to distance herself from the top of the ticket and run a local campaign focused on issues that impact New Hampshirites. Although she said that she would vote for Trump, she declined to endorse him and did not attend the Republican National Convention, instead attending campaign events across her state. Hassan has sought to tie Ayotte to Trump in a number of campaign ads. New Hampshire voted for President Obama in the last two presidential elections.

#1: Nevada Senate

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2016:

Nevada's U.S. Senate race is the only competitive Senate race in the country that the Democratic Party has to defend in 2016. The seat is open following incumbent Harry Reid's decision to retire at the end of the term. Former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and U.S. Rep. Joe Heck will compete in the election. Polling has shown a very tight race, with Heck maintaining a small lead in polling averages, while Masto has a small lead in fundraising. President Obama won the state in both 2012 and 2008, giving Masto another small advantage.

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