Trends in the margins of victory for incumbents of three or more terms, 2018-2024

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A Ballotpedia analysis of federal, state, and local incumbents identified 545 incumbents who won three contested general elections for the same office since 2018 and were also on the ballot for that office in 2024.

Analyzing incumbents' past margins of victory may help provide insight into their future election competitiveness. Incumbents whose margins of victory have steadily increased in recent general elections may be more likely to continue winning re-election. Incumbents whose margins of victory have steadily decreased in recent general elections may be more likely to face more competitive challenges, and studying them can help identify battleground races in 2024 and beyond.

This page presents trends in the margins of victory (MOV) for incumbents of three or more terms. The analysis includes federal, state, and local incumbents who won three contested general elections for the same office since 2018 and were also on the ballot for that office in 2024. Click here to read the methodology.

HIGHLIGHTS

In total, 545 incumbents who won three contested general elections since 2018 were on the ballot in 2024.

Of those, 136 incumbents (25.0%) won by increasingly smaller margins.

Another 150 of those incumbents (27.5%) won by increasingly larger margins.

A total of 19 included incumbents (3.5%) won each of their elections by fewer than 10 percentage points.

Five incumbents (0.9%) won each of their elections by fewer than five percentage points.

Two incumbents (0.4%) won each of their elections by fewer than five percentage points and by an increasingly smaller margin.

Overview

Ballotpedia identified 545 incumbents who won three contested general elections for the same office since 2018 and were on the ballot for that office in 2024. Of those, 160 were U.S. House incumbents, 379 were state legislative incumbents, two were state executive incumbents, and four were local incumbents.

This means 37% of the 435-member U.S. House won a general election challenge in each of the previous three cycles and were on the ballot for the November 5, 2024, election.

Ballotpedia tracks incumbent win rates by state each year. In 2022, Congressional incumbents had a 98% win rate, including uncontested races. State-level incumbents and state legislative incumbents had a 96% win rate. Local-level incumbents had an 89% win rate, and local legislative incumbents had an 83% win rate.

Partisan breakdown of incumbents who won three contested general elections since 2018
	Incumbents	Democrats	Republicans	Nonpartisan
U.S. House	160	90	70	0
State	381	165	216	0
Local	4	1	1	2
Total	545	287	256	2

Incumbents with decreasing margins of victory

The 136 incumbents in the table below won by a closer margin in each race since 2018. Of these, 114 (83.8%) were Democrats and 21 (15.4%%) were Republicans. One incumbent held nonpartisan office.

Incumbents with decreasing margins of victory since 2018
Office	Candidate	2018 MOV	2020 MOV	2022 MOV
California State Assembly District 23	Marc Berman	53.2%	46.9%	46.8%
California State Assembly District 25	Ash Kalra	52.6%	45.3%	40.1%
California State Assembly District 31	Joaquin Arambula	29.7%	23.8%	21.6%
California State Assembly District 4	Cecilia Aguiar-Curry	50.5%	33.3%	29.8%
California State Assembly District 46	Jesse Gabriel	40.5%	32.5%	30.8%
Colorado State Senate District 21	Dafna Michaelson Jenet	16.1%	13.7%	12.2%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 110	Bob Godfrey	45.6%	37.5%	24.3%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 121	Joe Gresko	40.6%	38.6%	30.3%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 129	Steven Stafstrom	64.4%	56.7%	56%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 14	Tom Delnicki	9.7%	7.9%	4.8%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 23	Devin Carney	10.9%	10.3%	9.4%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 25	Bobby Sanchez	95.5%	46.9%	42.8%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 38	Kathleen McCarty	3.2%	2.4%	2.1%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 59	Carol Hall	9.8%	7.9%	6.1%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 72	Larry Butler	48.2%	45.9%	37.6%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 8	Tim Ackert	24.7%	21.7%	19.7%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 88	Joshua Elliott	40.4%	38.7%	32.2%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 97	Alphonse Paolillo	60.4%	52.2%	49.5%
Connecticut State Senate District 1	John Fonfara	50.1%	46.9%	39.4%
Connecticut State Senate District 10	Gary Winfield	76.1%	68.4%	66.5%
Connecticut State Senate District 27	Patricia Miller	65.2%	54.5%	23.3%
Connecticut State Senate District 28	Tony Hwang	4%	3.4%	1.4%
Connecticut State Senate District 29	Mae Flexer	12.6%	4.4%	3.3%
Georgia House of Representatives District 11	Rick Jasperse	71.9%	68.2%	68.1%
Georgia House of Representatives District 29	Matt Dubnik	35.8%	29.9%	27.2%
Georgia House of Representatives District 46	John Carson	23.6%	22.9%	19.6%
Georgia State Senate District 47	Frank Ginn	32.9%	31.7%	24%
Hawaii House of Representatives District 47	Sean Quinlan	17%	15%	13.5%
Idaho House of Representatives District 17A	John L. Gannon	39.5%	26.9%	22.2%
Kentucky House of Representatives District 46	Alan Gentry	23%	19.1%	9.9%
Massachusetts House of Representatives 22nd Middlesex District	Marc Lombardo	23%	10.6%	8.7%
Massachusetts House of Representatives 3rd Hampden District	Nicholas Boldyga	32%	24.9%	20%
Massachusetts State Senate Norfolk and Plymouth District	John Keenan	51.7%	38.9%	27.3%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 44B	Leon Lillie	24.8%	19.4%	18.1%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 53B	Rick Hansen	31.9%	31.2%	15.1%
Nevada State Assembly District 5	Brittney Miller	11.7%	8.4%	7.4%
Nevada State Assembly District 9	Steve Yeager	15.6%	10.3%	6.4%
New Hampshire House of Representatives Cheshire 9	Daniel Eaton	14.1%	7.4%	5.4%
New Hampshire State Senate District 18	Donna Soucy	12.1%	10.8%	4.8%
New Mexico House of Representatives District 35	Angelica Rubio	29.3%	22.1%	18.7%
New Mexico House of Representatives District 36	Nathan Small	20.9%	8%	4.2%
New Mexico House of Representatives District 52	Doreen Y. Gallegos	33%	30.2%	21.8%
New York State Assembly District 10	Steve Stern	19.8%	12.8%	8.8%
New York State Assembly District 113	Carrie Woerner	13.7%	10.2%	6.1%
New York State Assembly District 13	Charles Lavine	36.2%	26.3%	9.2%
New York State Assembly District 138	, Harry Bronson	33.1%	30.4%	19.1%
New York State Assembly District 139	Stephen Hawley	83.3%	82.9%	53.8%
New York State Assembly District 22	Michaelle Solages	39.7%	36%	15.7%
New York State Assembly District 23	Stacey G. Pheffer Amato	36.3%	23.2%	0.1%
New York State Assembly District 26	Edward Braunstein	30.5%	9.7%	8.9%
New York State Assembly District 40	Ron Kim	75.8%	67.3%	2.3%
New York State Assembly District 47	William Colton	39%	23.8%	9.6%
New York State Assembly District 54	Erik Dilan	90.9%	76.5%	72.6%
New York State Assembly District 55	Latrice Walker	96.4%	90.7%	88.4%
New York State Assembly District 81	Jeffrey Dinowitz	75.2%	65.1%	61.5%
New York State Assembly District 82	Michael Benedetto	65.8%	51.5%	32.5%
New York State Assembly District 83	Carl Heastie	94.5%	88.7%	85.3%
New York State Senate District 15	Joseph Addabbo	28.2%	16.5%	14.6%
New York State Senate District 28	Liz Krueger	63.6%	56%	55.2%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 17	Frank Iler	27%	24.9%	24.6%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 18	Deb Butler	28%	19.7%	6.6%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 23	Shelly Willingham	21.7%	19.2%	8.8%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 26	Donna McDowell White	19.7%	18.9%	18.4%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 48	Garland Pierce	25.7%	11.9%	7%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 54	Robert Reives	26.5%	22.5%	10.6%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 58	Amos Quick	53.6%	52.3%	38.3%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 60	Cecil Brockman	38.1%	28.1%	17.9%
North Carolina State Senate District 32	Paul Lowe	45.8%	18.8%	18.6%
North Carolina State Senate District 40	Joyce Waddell	51.3%	44.2%	34.4%
Oregon House of Representatives District 29	Susan McLain	19.3%	15.8%	7.3%
Oregon House of Representatives District 5	Pam Marsh	36.1%	32.9%	28.8%
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 166	Gregory Vitali	45.5%	41.8%	31.9%
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 70	Matthew Bradford	38.6%	38.2%	21.8%
Rhode Island House of Representatives District 38	Brian Kennedy	19.4%	16.6%	16%
Rhode Island State Senate District 8	Sandra Cano	45.8%	43.4%	35.3%
South Carolina House of Representatives District 95	Gilda Cobb-Hunter	43.1%	40%	18.3%
Tennessee House of Representatives District 14	Jason Zachary	31.1%	29.2%	28.7%
Texas House of Representatives District 137	Gene Wu	76.6%	63%	52%
Texas House of Representatives District 20	Terry Wilson	43%	42.7%	18.2%
Texas House of Representatives District 41	Robert Guerra	23%	15.7%	13.9%
Texas House of Representatives District 98	Giovanni Capriglione	38.9%	35.7%	32.5%
U.S. House Arizona District 1	David Schweikert	10.4%	4.4%	0.9%
U.S. House California District 14	Eric Swalwell	45.9%	41.8%	38.7%
U.S. House California District 17	Ro Khanna	50.7%	42.7%	41.9%
U.S. House California District 18	Zoe Lofgren	47.5%	43.4%	31.7%
U.S. House California District 19	Jimmy Panetta	62.8%	53.6%	37.3%
U.S. House California District 2	Jared Huffman	54%	51.5%	48.8%
U.S. House California District 26	Julia Brownley	23.9%	21.2%	9.1%
U.S. House California District 28	Judy Chu	58.4%	39.6%	32.5%
U.S. House California District 32	Brad Sherman	46.8%	39%	38.3%
U.S. House California District 34	Jimmy Gomez	45.1%	6%	2.5%
U.S. House California District 35	Norma Torres	38.8%	38.7%	14.7%
U.S. House California District 39	Mark Takano	30.2%	28.1%	15.4%
U.S. House California District 4	Mike Thompson	57.7%	52.2%	35.6%
U.S. House California District 46	Lou Correa	38.3%	37.5%	23.6%
U.S. House California District 52	Juan Vargas	42.4%	36.6%	33.3%
U.S. House California District 7	Doris Matsui	60.9%	46.7%	36.5%
U.S. House Connecticut District 1	John Larson	28.8%	28.8%	23.8%
U.S. House Connecticut District 2	Joe Courtney	26.7%	21.2%	18.1%
U.S. House Connecticut District 3	Rosa L. DeLauro	29.2%	19%	16.2%
U.S. House Florida District 25	Debbie Wasserman Schultz	22.5%	16.4%	10.2%
U.S. House Florida District 9	Darren Soto	16%	12.1%	7.3%
U.S. House Georgia District 2	Sanford Bishop Jr.	19.3%	18.2%	10%
U.S. House Illinois District 10	Brad Schneider	30.8%	27.8%	26%
U.S. House Illinois District 11	Bill Foster	27.7%	26.6%	12.9%
U.S. House Illinois District 2	Robin Kelly	61.5%	57.6%	30%
U.S. House Illinois District 5	Mike Quigley	53.3%	44.1%	40.8%
U.S. House Maryland District 5	Steny Hoyer	43.3%	37.9%	32%
U.S. House Massachusetts District 5	Katherine Clark	51.9%	48.8%	48.1%
U.S. House Massachusetts District 6	Seth Moulton	33.8%	31%	27.7%
U.S. House Michigan District 6	Debbie Dingell	39.2%	35.8%	31.8%
U.S. House Mississippi District 2	Bennie Thompson	50.1%	32%	20.2%
U.S. House Nevada District 1	Dina Titus	35.3%	28.4%	5.6%
U.S. House New Jersey District 12	Bonnie Watson Coleman	37.4%	33.1%	27.2%
U.S. House New Jersey District 6	Frank Pallone Jr.	27.3%	22.3%	16.4%
U.S. House New York District 20	Paul Tonko	33%	22.4%	10.1%
U.S. House New York District 6	Grace Meng	81.8%	36%	27.9%
U.S. House New York District 7	Nydia Velazquez	87.9%	70.4%	61.4%
U.S. House New York District 8	Hakeem Jeffries	89%	69.7%	43.5%
U.S. House New York District 9	Yvette D. Clarke	79%	67.3%	63%
U.S. House Ohio District 3	Joyce Beatty	47.3%	41.7%	40.9%
U.S. House Ohio District 9	Marcy Kaptur	35.6%	26.2%	13.3%
U.S. House Pennsylvania District 8	Matt Cartwright	9.3%	3.6%	2.5%
U.S. House South Carolina District 6	James Clyburn	41.9%	37.4%	24.2%
U.S. House Tennessee District 9	Steve Cohen	60.8%	57.3%	43.8%
U.S. House Texas District 28	Henry Cuellar	68.8%	19.3%	13.3%
U.S. House Texas District 9	Al Green	85.2%	53.9%	53.4%
U.S. House Virginia District 11	Gerald Edward Connolly	44.2%	43.2%	33.8%
U.S. House Virginia District 8	Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr.	52.5%	51.9%	48.9%
U.S. House Washington District 2	Rick Larsen	42.6%	26.5%	20.4%
Wake County Public School System, District 8	Lindsay Mahaffey (Nonpartisan)	28.3%	25.7%	20.6%
Washington House of Representatives District 27-Position 2	Jake Fey	44.7%	44.2%	42%
Wayne County Commission District 15	Joseph Palamara	20.6%	10.8%	10%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 21	Jessie Rodriguez	9.5%	9.3%	8.4%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 84	Chuck Wichgers	39.8%	39.4%	13.6%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 94	Steve Doyle	20.4%	7.3%	2.6%

Incumbents with increasing margins of victory

The 150 incumbents in the table below won by a larger margin in each race since 2018. Of these, 17 (11.3%) were Democrats and 133 (88.7%) were Republicans.

Incumbents with increasing margins of victory since 2018
Office	Candidate	2018 MOV	2020 MOV	2022 MOV
Alaska House of Representatives District 25	DeLena Johnson	44.3%	48.6%	57.9%
Alaska House of Representatives District 29	George Rauscher	42.3%	44.6%	49.2%
California State Assembly District 3	James Gallagher	20.3%	27.4%	30.7%
California State Assembly District 34	Tom Lackey	4.1%	10.3%	13%
California State Assembly District 59	Phillip Chen	9.8%	9.9%	40%
California State Assembly District 9	Heath Flora	20.1%	21.9%	38.5%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 136	Jonathan Steinberg	22.7%	33%	38%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 40	Christine Conley	16.8%	17.7%	64.9%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 47	Doug Dubitsky	13.7%	18%	20.6%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 67	William Buckbee	15.4%	21.4%	23.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 68	Lawrence McClure	9%	11.5%	36.5%
Georgia House of Representatives District 107	Samuel Park	18%	24.3%	36.5%
Georgia House of Representatives District 164	Ron Stephens	4.9%	5.1%	17.6%
Georgia State Senate District 16	Marty Harbin	36.3%	36.3%	36.4%
Georgia State Senate District 46	Bill Cowsert	20.8%	22%	28%
Governor of Vermont	Phil Scott	15%	41.3%	47.2%
Hawaii State Senate District 7	Lynn DeCoite	43.2%	50.6%	51.4%
Idaho State Senate District 23	Todd Lakey	30.2%	39.8%	60.5%
Illinois House of Representatives District 18	Robyn Gabel	44.2%	44.6%	62.6%
Indiana House of Representatives District 17	Jack Jordan	34.7%	49.5%	49.6%
Indiana House of Representatives District 21	Timothy Wesco	28.4%	29%	47.5%
Indiana House of Representatives District 42	Alan Morrison	20.8%	33.6%	36.8%
Indiana House of Representatives District 52	Ben Smaltz	46.7%	47.8%	63.4%
Indiana House of Representatives District 60	Peggy Mayfield	17.9%	27%	50.9%
Indiana House of Representatives District 63	Shane Lindauer	34.3%	47.6%	53.9%
Indiana House of Representatives District 65	Christopher May	38.5%	45.9%	55.5%
Indiana House of Representatives District 70	Karen Engleman	30.9%	41.4%	50%
Indiana House of Representatives District 72	Edward Clere	10.2%	18.7%	20.8%
Indiana House of Representatives District 76	Wendy McNamara	9.7%	28.1%	29.3%
Indiana House of Representatives District 87	Carey Hamilton	24.4%	25.3%	25.8%
Iowa House of Representatives District 15	Matt Windschitl	42.5%	51.2%	57.5%
Iowa House of Representatives District 63	Michael Bergan	0.1%	8.7%	22.9%
Iowa House of Representatives District 82	Bobby Kaufmann	11.5%	20.5%	49.6%
Iowa House of Representatives District 93	Gary Mohr	9.9%	10.6%	19.8%
Kentucky House of Representatives District 12	Jim Gooch Jr.	27.5%	53.1%	55%
Kentucky House of Representatives District 33	Jason Michael Nemes	2%	8.3%	10.4%
Kentucky House of Representatives District 53	James A. Tipton	42.3%	53.3%	53.4%
Kentucky House of Representatives District 8	Walker Thomas	4.6%	9.6%	36.3%
Massachusetts State Senate 1st Plymouth and Norfolk District	Patrick O'Connor	6.7%	10%	21.3%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 12B	Mary Franson	24.1%	36.2%	39.9%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 15A	Chris Swedzinski	35.2%	38.4%	40.9%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 15B	Paul Torkelson	26.4%	35.4%	45.2%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 16B	Dave Baker	38.3%	41.5%	45.6%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 21A	Joe Schomacker	33.6%	46.2%	48.7%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 23A	Peggy Bennett	13.1%	27%	31.6%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 24A	Duane Quam	7.3%	15.1%	28%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 29A	Joe McDonald	35.9%	40.8%	41.5%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 31B	Peggy Scott	13.2%	20.4%	36.2%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 32A	Nolan West	0.8%	4.9%	14.6%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 57A	Jon Koznick	11.4%	12.4%	25.2%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 64B	Dave Pinto	60.3%	61%	65.4%
Minnesota House of Representatives District 6B	Josh Heintzeman	24.6%	30%	30.7%
New Hampshire State Senate District 14	Sharon Carson	15.3%	17.8%	18.2%
New Hampshire State Senate District 8	Ruth Ward	2.6%	11.1%	14.5%
New Mexico House of Representatives District 24	Elizabeth Thomson	16%	18%	18.6%
New York State Assembly District 102	Christopher Tague	12.5%	27.1%	30.6%
New York State Assembly District 122	Brian Miller	17.5%	21.9%	28.5%
New York State Assembly District 14	David McDonough	12.1%	19.5%	30%
New York State Assembly District 19	Edward Ra	11%	17.9%	32.8%
New York State Assembly District 5	Doug Smith	17.3%	28.3%	34.3%
New York State Assembly District 8	Michael Fitzpatrick	21.9%	29.3%	36.6%
New York State Senate District 54	Pamela Helming	23.9%	27.6%	32.9%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 28	Larry Strickland	28.8%	35.4%	43.9%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 30	Marcia Morey	49.8%	63.4%	74.6%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 4	James Dixon	28%	31.5%	33.2%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 51	John Sauls	5.6%	14.7%	30%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 64	Dennis Riddell	15.7%	19%	25.1%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 69	Dean Arp	20.5%	29.9%	33.2%
North Carolina House of Representatives District 81	Larry Potts	43.7%	46%	48.5%
Oklahoma House of Representatives District 64	Rande Worthen	5.9%	8.4%	14.3%
Oregon House of Representatives District 18	Rick Lewis	32.1%	40.8%	42.4%
Oregon State Senate District 1	David Brock Smith	37.4%	37.9%	41.5%
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 13	John Lawrence	10%	17.9%	18.7%
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 141	Tina Davis	24.3%	25.4%	30.5%
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 171	Kerry Benninghoff	18.3%	22.8%	43.9%
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 176	Jack Rader	9.5%	10.2%	20.6%
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 41	Brett Miller	12.5%	15.7%	50.2%
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 72	Frank Burns	4.9%	5.4%	9.1%
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 81	Richard Irvin	27.9%	37.5%	50.3%
Rhode Island House of Representatives District 40	Michael Chippendale	22%	32.3%	34.9%
Rhode Island House of Representatives District 41	Robert Quattrocchi	27.7%	29.6%	36.8%
Rhode Island House of Representatives District 69	Susan Donovan	9.5%	16.4%	20.8%
Rhode Island State Senate District 17	Thomas Paolino	1.2%	18.5%	18.8%
South Carolina House of Representatives District 13	John McCravy	43.2%	43.4%	49.3%
South Carolina House of Representatives District 45	Brandon Newton	25%	27.8%	34.7%
South Carolina House of Representatives District 63	Jay Jordan	29.3%	29.5%	37.6%
Tennessee House of Representatives District 25	Cameron Sexton	55.9%	63.3%	65.6%
Tennessee House of Representatives District 31	Ron Travis	57.7%	66%	72.7%
Tennessee House of Representatives District 48	Bryan Terry	21.8%	23.4%	34.2%
Tennessee House of Representatives District 49	Mike Sparks	5%	7.7%	19%
Tennessee House of Representatives District 78	Mary Littleton	38.1%	44.5%	47.3%
Tennessee House of Representatives District 8	Jerome Moon	44.3%	49.8%	60.7%
Texas House of Representatives District 108	Morgan Meyer	0.3%	1.6%	12.9%
Texas House of Representatives District 129	Dennis Paul	14.7%	17.9%	21.6%
Texas House of Representatives District 150	Valoree Swanson	15.6%	19.6%	21.4%
Texas House of Representatives District 66	Matt Shaheen	0.6%	1%	20.8%
Texas House of Representatives District 67	Jeff Leach	2.3%	3.4%	18.4%
Texas House of Representatives District 71	Stan Lambert	56.1%	57.7%	62%
Texas House of Representatives District 9	Trent Ashby	58.1%	58.9%	64.7%
U.S. House Alabama District 3	Mike Rogers	27.5%	35%	46.1%
U.S. House Alabama District 4	Robert Aderholt	59.7%	64.6%	70.5%
U.S. House Arkansas District 2	French Hill	6.3%	10.7%	24.8%
U.S. House Arkansas District 4	Bruce Westerman	35.6%	42.1%	44.8%
U.S. House California District 1	Doug LaMalfa	9.8%	14%	24.2%
U.S. House California District 24	Salud Carbajal	17.1%	17.3%	21.1%
U.S. House California District 5	Tom McClintock	8.3%	11.9%	22.6%
U.S. House Florida District 12	Gus M. Bilirakis	18.4%	25.8%	40.8%
U.S. House Florida District 16	Vern Buchanan	9.1%	11%	24.3%
U.S. House Florida District 21	Brian Mast	8.6%	14.8%	27%
U.S. House Georgia District 1	Earl Carter	15.5%	16.7%	18.3%
U.S. House Georgia District 13	David Scott	52.4%	54.8%	63.6%
U.S. House Illinois District 12	Mike Bost	6.2%	20.9%	50%
U.S. House Kentucky District 6	Andy Barr	3.2%	16.4%	29.1%
U.S. House Michigan District 5	Tim Walberg	7.6%	17.5%	27.5%
U.S. House Mississippi District 1	Trent Kelly	34.5%	37.5%	46%
U.S. House Missouri District 2	Ann Wagner	4%	6.4%	11.8%
U.S. House Missouri District 6	Sam Graves	33.4%	36.2%	42.8%
U.S. House Nebraska District 3	Adrian Smith	53.4%	60.8%	62.5%
U.S. House New Jersey District 4	Chris Smith	12.3%	21.6%	35.6%
U.S. House New York District 21	Elise Stefanik	13.7%	17.7%	18.3%
U.S. House Ohio District 10	Michael Turner	13.8%	16.7%	23.3%
U.S. House Ohio District 12	Troy Balderson	4.2%	13.5%	38.5%
U.S. House Ohio District 14	David Joyce	10.5%	20.2%	23.5%
U.S. House Pennsylvania District 10	Scott Perry	2.6%	6.6%	7.7%
U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16	Mike Kelly	4.3%	18.7%	18.7%
U.S. House South Carolina District 5	Ralph Norman	15.6%	20.2%	29.6%
U.S. House Tennessee District 3	Charles J. Fleischmann	29.2%	36.8%	38.2%
U.S. House Tennessee District 4	Scott DesJarlais	29.8%	33.3%	44.8%
U.S. House Tennessee District 8	David Kustoff	37.6%	39%	49.7%
U.S. House Texas District 10	Michael McCaul	4.3%	7.1%	29%
U.S. House Texas District 14	Randy Weber	19.9%	23.3%	40.3%
U.S. House Texas District 19	Jodey Arrington	50.5%	51.9%	60.6%
U.S. House Texas District 27	Michael Cloud	23.7%	28.1%	28.9%
U.S. House Washington District 4	Dan Newhouse	25.6%	32.6%	36.1%
Utah House of Representatives District 70	Carl R. Albrecht	58.9%	63.7%	83.8%
Washington House of Representatives District 1-Position 2	Shelley Kloba	26.8%	27.4%	42.5%
Washington House of Representatives District 19-Position 1	Jim Walsh	0.9%	18.8%	24.5%
Washington House of Representatives District 21-Position 2	Lillian Ortiz-Self	30.8%	32%	33.4%
Washington House of Representatives District 35-Position 1	Dan Griffey	15.5%	16.8%	18.1%
Washington House of Representatives District 46-Position 1	Gerry Pollet	65.5%	67.8%	71.5%
West Virginia House of Delegates District 62	Roger Hanshaw	12%	36.8%	63.1%
West Virginia House of Delegates District 84	D.R. Jennings	25.2%	37.6%	44%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 29	Treig Pronschinske	10.3%	17.2%	26.8%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 30	Shannon Zimmerman	7.9%	11.9%	17.1%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 31	Tyler August	18.5%	23.6%	25.9%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 49	Travis Tranel	17.8%	18.4%	25.3%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 51	Todd Novak	1.4%	4.1%	12.2%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 57	Kevin Petersen	28.7%	38.8%	50.9%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 72	Scott Krug	14.7%	20.7%	24.3%
Wyoming House of Representatives District 54	Lloyd Charles Larsen	5.3%	16.8%	25.8%

Incumbents who won each of their last three elections by fewer than 10 percentage points

See also: Election results, 2022: Congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer

See also: Election results, 2020: Congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer

See also: Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less, 2018

The 19 incumbents in the table below won each of their last three elections by a margin smaller than 10 percentage points. Of these, 6 (31.6%) were Democrats and 13 (68.4%) were Republicans.

Ballotpedia identified two of the three U.S. House races in the table below as battleground races. You can read our coverage of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election here and Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election here.

Incumbents who won each election since 2018 by fewer than 10 percentage points
Office	Candidate	2018 MOV	2020 MOV	2022 MOV
Connecticut House of Representatives District 123	David Rutigliano	7.8%	1.7%	7.4%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 139	Kevin Ryan	6.4%	9.3%	6.1%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 14	Tom Delnicki	9.7%	7.9%	4.8%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 37	Holly Cheeseman	2.8%	1.4%	4.2%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 38	Kathleen McCarty	3.2%	2.4%	2.1%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 59	Carol Hall	9.8%	7.9%	6.1%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 77	Cara Pavalock-D'Amato	5.4%	5.9%	1%
Connecticut State Senate District 28	Tony Hwang	4%	3.4%	1.4%
Massachusetts House of Representatives 5th Plymouth District	David DeCoste	3.5%	1.4%	3.5%
Nevada State Assembly District 41	Sandra Jauregui	8.9%	5.3%	5.7%
New Hampshire House of Representatives Sullivan 5	Linda Tanner	6.5%	0.9%	1.1%
Oklahoma House of Representatives District 46	Jacob Rosecrants	6.1%	0.4%	9%
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 72	Frank Burns	4.9%	5.4%	9.1%
Rhode Island State Senate District 34	Elaine Morgan	8.7%	8.1%	9.7%
Texas House of Representatives District 112	Angie Chen Button	2.1%	0.3%	9.7%
U.S. House Nebraska District 2	Don Bacon	2%	4.6%	2.7%
U.S. House Pennsylvania District 10	Scott Perry	2.6%	6.6%	7.7%
U.S. House Pennsylvania District 8	Matt Cartwright	9.3%	3.6%	2.5%
Wisconsin State Assembly District 21	Jessie Rodriguez	9.5%	9.3%	8.4%

Incumbents who won each of their last three elections by fewer than five percentage points

The five incumbents in the table below won each of their last three elections by a margin smaller than five percentage points. Two of these incumbents—Connecticut State Representative Kathleen M. McCarty (R) and Connecticut State Senator Tony Hwang (R)—won each of their last three elections by fewer than five percentage points and by increasingly smaller margins.

Incumbents who won each election since 2018 by fewer than five percentage points
Office	Candidate	2018 MOV	2020 MOV	2022 MOV
Massachusetts House of Representatives 5th Plymouth District	David DeCoste	3.5%	1.4%	3.5%
U.S. House Nebraska District 2	Don Bacon	2%	4.6%	2.7%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 37	Holly Cheeseman	2.8%	1.4%	4.2%
Connecticut House of Representatives District 38	Kathleen McCarty	3.2%	2.4%	2.1%
Connecticut State Senate District 28	Tony Hwang	4%	3.4%	1.4%

Incumbents without trending margins of victory

The margins of victory of the following 248 incumbents did not trend in either direction:

Methodology

Ballotpedia identified 545 incumbents at the local, state, and federal levels who won three contested general elections for the same office since 2018 and were on the ballot again for that office in 2024. This analysis excludes races with multiple winners.

We considered candidates to be incumbents if they were running for a seat in the chamber in which they were already serving, even if not for the same seat within that chamber. For example, a candidate who represented different districts within the same chamber as a result of redistricting would be included, while a three-term state representative running for a state senate seat would not.

The MOV is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the second-place candidate in an election. For this analysis, that was the share of votes cast for the incumbent minus the share of votes cast for the second-place candidate.

See also

• Margin-of-victory (MOV)
• Election results, 2022: Incumbent win rates by state
• United States House of Representatives elections, 2024
• State executive official elections, 2024
• State legislative elections, 2024
• United States municipal elections, 2024