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Trifecta vulnerability in the 2022 elections
Thirteen state government trifectas were vulnerable in the 2022 elections, according to Ballotpedia's annual trifecta vulnerability ratings. Democrats were defending seven vulnerable trifectas and Republicans were defending six. On this page, we assessed the likelihood of each existing state government trifecta breaking, and of new state government trifectas forming in 2022.
The Democratic trifecta in Delaware was highly vulnerable. Delaware did not hold its gubernatorial election in 2022, but Democrats had a 14-7 seat majority in the state Senate. Republicans needed a net gain of four seats to win a majority.
Democratic trifectas in Colorado, Maine, and Nevada were moderately vulnerable. Three Democratic trifectas—Illinois, Oregon, and Washington—were considered somewhat vulnerable.
Arizona was the only highly vulnerable Republican trifecta this year. The governor's race was rated as a Toss-up, and Republicans had a one seat majority in both the state House and Senate. Three Republican trifectas in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas were classified as moderately vulnerable. The Republican trifectas in Florida and Iowa were somewhat vulnerable.
Ballotpedia also assessed the chances of new trifectas forming in states that were currently under divided government. According to our methodology, states that qualified as a possible Democratic trifecta pickup were Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and North Carolina, while Republicans had pickup chances in Alaska and Kansas. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, both parties had the opportunity to establish a state government trifecta.
A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. At the time of the 2022 elections, there were 37 state government trifectas: 23 Republican trifectas and 14 Democratic trifectas. The remaining 13 states had a divided government where neither party had a trifecta.
Thirty-six states held gubernatorial elections in 2022 and 88 of the country's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections. Trifecta status was at stake in 46 states. Elections for one or more trifecta offices took place in:
- 22 of the 23 states with Republican trifectas,
- 13 of the 14 states with Democratic trifectas, and
- 11 of the 13 states with divided government.
Ballotpedia calculated the chances of trifectas breaking and forming by evaluating each trifecta component individually and assessing the chances of them changing control. Click here for more on how these ratings were calculated.
Changes in a state government's policy priorities often follow changes in trifecta status, as trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle. "Few ever pay attention to [gubernatorial and state legislative] races, but they’re important for [redistricting] and waves can be leveraged for major gains," according to NBC News reporter Alex Seitz-Wald.[1]
The 2020 elections resulted in Republicans gaining two trifectas—in Montana and New Hampshire—both of which had divided government at the time of the election. In 2021, Republicans in Virginia broke what had been a Democratic trifecta by winning the governorship and control of the House of Delegates. Between 2010 and 2021, 73 state government trifectas were broken or gained.
For more on current state government trifectas, click here.
Vulnerable state government trifectas
| Democratic Party Current status: 14 trifectas Not vulnerable: 7 Somewhat vulnerable: 3 Moderately vulnerable: 3 Highly vulnerable: 1 |
Republican Party Current status: 23 trifectas Not vulnerable: 17 Somewhat vulnerable: 2 Moderately vulnerable: 3 Highly vulnerable: 1 |
|---|
Vulnerable trifectas
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details.
Potential new trifectas
| Predicted Democratic pickups Moderate possibility: 4 |
Toss-ups 3 |
Predicted Republican pickups Significant possibility: 1 Moderate possibility: 1 |
|---|
Potential new trifectas
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. Toss-up states are those where Democratic and Republican trifectas both have a good chance of forming.
Potential best-case scenarios
The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. We define a party's best-case scenario as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that are rated towards that party or as a toss-up, as well as retaining all of their current trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all of its somewhat and moderately vulnerable trifectas.
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2022 election for Democrats | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 22 | 17 | 11 | |||||
| Population | 328,771,307[2] | 170,041,421 | 63,724,277 | 95,005,609 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 51.7% | 19.4% | 28.9% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2022 election for Republicans | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 7 | 28 | 15 | |||||
| Population | 328,771,307[3] | 75,714,681 | 169,707,029 | 83,349,597 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 23.0% | 51.6% | 25.4% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
Trifecta status
At the time of the 2022 elections, there were trifectas in 37 of the 50 states.
- 23
Republican - 14
Democratic
| Percent of Americans living under trifectas as of January 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | |
| Population | 328,771,307 [4] | 111,520,258 | 137,479,602 | 79,771,447 |
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 33.9% | 41.8% | 24.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed January 3, 2022 | ||||
How the 2022 elections affected trifectas
Seven Democratic trifectas were classified by Ballotpedia at various levels of vulnerability:
- The Democratic trifecta in Delaware was rated as highly vulnerable.
- Democratic trifectas in Colorado, Maine, and Nevada were rated as moderately vulnerable.
- Three Democratic trifectas—Illinois, Oregon, and Washington—were considered somewhat vulnerable.
- The only Democratic trifecta that became a divided government was in Nevada, where Republicans won the governorship that had been rated as a Toss-up.
Five Republican trifectas were classified at various levels of vulnerability:
- Arizona was the only highly vulnerable Republican trifecta this year. The governor's race was rated as a Toss-up, and Republicans had a one-seat majority in both the state House and Senate.
- Three Republican trifectas in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas were classified as moderately vulnerable.
- The Republican trifectas in Florida and Iowa were somewhat vulnerable.
- The only Republican trifecta that became a divided government was in Arizona, where Democrats won the governorship.
Nine states that had divided government before the 2022 elections had the potential to become trifectas.
Four of those—Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota—became Democratic trifectas. Republicans did not gain any new trifectas as a result of the 2022 elections.
Methodology
Assessing trifecta vulnerability
Ballotpedia rates trifectas as not vulnerable, somewhat vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and highly vulnerable. We individually assess the likelihood that each component of a trifecta—control of the governorship, the upper chamber of the state Legislature, and the lower chamber of the state Legislature—changes party hands.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the majority party or is likely to be won by the majority party.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the majority party.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the minority party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
Overall assessment
The sum of the three individual ratings is used to determine the state's overall rating:
| 5-6 | Highly vulnerable |
| 3-4 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1-2 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which held elections for only two trifecta components in 2022, the sum of the two remaining ratings is used instead:
| 3-4 | Highly vulnerable |
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which held elections for only one trifecta component in 2022, vulnerability was calculated as follows:
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
Assessing potential new trifectas
To determine the possibility of a particular party forming a trifecta in a state where one does not exist, we consider the likelihood of that party taking control of each individual trifecta component it currently lacks.
For instance, at the time of the 2022 elections, the Republican Party controlled the governorship in Maryland while the Democratic Party controlled majorities in both houses of the Maryland General Assembly. Therefore, projections on the outcome of the gubernatorial election indicated the likelihood of a Democratic trifecta forming, while projections on the outcome of the legislative elections indicated the likelihood of a Republican trifecta forming.
In the event that a Democratic and Republican trifecta both have a good chance of forming, the state is considered a toss-up potential trifecta.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the incumbent's party or is likely to be won by the incumbent's party.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the incumbent's party.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the challenger's party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5% of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
To assess the overall likelihood of a trifecta forming, the scores of the individual components are added together. If the party lacks two trifecta components, the two ratings are totaled as follows:
| 3-4 | Moderate possibility |
| 1-2 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
If the party lacks only one trifecta component, a rating is determined as follows:
| 2 | Moderate possibility |
| 1 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
See also
- State government trifectas
- Historical and potential changes in trifectas
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2021 elections
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2020 elections
Footnotes
- ↑ Twitter, "Alex Seitz-Wald," November 7, 2018
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 14, 2022
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 14, 2022
- ↑ Excludes the 712,816 inhabitants of Washington, D.C.
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