Trifecta vulnerability in the 2025 elections
|
« 2024
|
 |
| Election Analysis Hub, 2025 |
| Election analysis |
|---|
| Top 15 elections to watch Municipal partisanship Uncontested elections Competitiveness reports: State executives State legislatures |
| Elections coverage |
| Election results, 2025 Election previews State government trifectas State legislatures State executives Governors Municipal elections Mayoral elections Local elections |
Two states are holding gubernatorial elections in 2025, and the same two states are holding regularly scheduled legislative elections in two of the country's 99 state legislative chambers. Therefore, trifecta status is at stake in two states. Elections for governor and state House are taking place in:
- New Jersey—one of 15 states with a Democratic trifecta, and
- Virginia—one of 12 states with a divided government.
A state government trifecta occurs when one party holds the governorship and majorities in both state legislative chambers. Ballotpedia's annual trifecta vulnerability ratings estimate the chances of trifectas breaking and forming. Our assessment of gubernatorial races is based on race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. For legislative races, we use the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to change control. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Click here for more on how these ratings are calculated.
New Jersey's Democratic state government trifecta is somewhat vulnerable in 2025, according to this methodology. New Jersey is not holding elections for state Senate, but is holding elections for all 80 seats in the state House and for the governor's office. If Republicans gain 13 seats in the House or win the governorship, they will break the Democratic trifecta. Democrats will retain their trifecta if they lose fewer than 13 seats in the House and retain the governorship. Democrats have held partisan control of both chambers of the New Jersey legislature since 2004. The governor's race is rated Lean Democratic.
Virginia has a possibility of becoming a Democratic trifecta. Virginia's governor going into the 2025 elections is Glenn Youngkin (R). The race is rated Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and Toss-up by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. All 100 House districts in the state are also holding elections. Democrats have a two-seat majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate heading into the elections.
Trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—thus often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle. "Few ever pay attention to [gubernatorial and state legislative] races, but they’re important for [redistricting] and waves can be leveraged for major gains," according to NBC News reporter Alex Seitz-Wald.[1]
The 2024 elections resulted in changes to the trifecta status in two states. In Michigan and Minnesota, Democratic trifectas became divided governments. Between 2010 and 2024, 82 state government trifectas were broken or gained.
For more on current state government trifectas, click here.
Vulnerable state government trifectas
| Democratic Party Current status: 1 trifecta Somewhat vulnerable: 1 |
Republican Party Current status: 0 trifectas - |
|---|
Vulnerable trifectas
|
|
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details.
Potential new trifectas
| Predicted Democratic pickups Moderate possibility: 1 |
Toss-ups None |
Predicted Republican pickups None |
|---|
Potential new trifectas
|
|
|
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. Toss-up states are those where Democratic and Republican trifectas both have a good chance of forming.
Potential best-case scenarios
The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. We define a party's best-case scenario as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that are rated towards that party or as a toss-up, as well as retaining all of their current trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all of its vulnerable trifectas.
Democratic Party
- Democrats could gain one trifecta.The Democrats' best-case scenario is to retain their trifecta in New Jersey and win a trifecta in Virginia, increasing the total number of Democratic trifectas to 16.
The Democrats' best-case scenario is to retain their trifecta in New Jersey and win a trifecta in Virginia. Heading into the 2025 elections, Virginia Democrats control both chambers of the legislature, and Republicans control the governorship. The governor's office and the state House are up for election. Virginia Democrats need to maintain their House majority and gain the governor's office to obtain trifecta control in the state. Democrats in New Jersey need to maintain both their House majority and the governor's office to retain trifecta control in the state.
The map below shows the best-case scenario for Democrats—gaining a Democratic trifecta in Virginia.
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2025 election for Democrats | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 16 | 23 | 11 | |||||
| Population | 339,408,738[2] | 132,728,858 | 140,863,065 | 65,816,815 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 39.1% | 41.5% | 19.4% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
Republican Party
- Republicans can not gain any trifectas.The Republicans' best-case scenario is to break the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey and prevent a Democratic trifecta in Virginia. Because both states' upper chambers are controlled by Democrats and are not up for election, Republicans can not gain any trifectas.
The Republicans' best-case scenario in 2025 is to break the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey and maintain divided government in Virginia. Heading into the 2025 elections, Virginia Democrats control both chambers of the legislature, and Republicans control the governorship. The governor's office and the state House are up for election. Virginia Republicans need to maintain the governorship or gain at least one House seat to prevent a Democratic trifecta in the state. Republicans in New Jersey need to win the governor's office or gain at least 12 House seats to break the Democratic trifecta.
The map below shows the best-case scenario for Republicans—breaking a Democratic trifecta in New Jersey.
| Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2025 election for Republicans | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
| States | 50 | 14 | 23 | 13 | |||||
| Population | 339,408,738[3] | 114,416,812 | 140,863,065 | 84,128,861 | |||||
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 33.7% | 41.5% | 24.8% | |||||
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | |||||||||
Trifecta status
At the time of the 2025 elections, there were trifectas in 38 of the 50 states.
- 23
Republican - 15
Democratic
The chart below shows the percentage of the population living under Democratic trifectas, Republican trifectas, and divided governments as of January 2025. Population figures are taken from the U.S. Census Bureau's July 2024 estimates.[4]
| Percent of Americans living under trifectas as of January 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | |
| Population | 339,408,738[5] | 123,917,663 | 140,863,065 | 74,628,010 |
| Proportion (%) | 100% | 36.5% | 41.5% | 22.0% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau | ||||
Methodology
Assessing trifecta vulnerability
Ballotpedia rates trifectas as not vulnerable, somewhat vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and highly vulnerable. We individually assess the likelihood that each component of a trifecta—control of the governorship, the upper chamber of the state Legislature, and the lower chamber of the state Legislature—changes party hands. The sum of the three scores determines the overall rating, with higher scores representing more vulnerable trifectas. Additionally, if any single trifecta component scores a 2 in its individual assessment, the trifecta is considered highly vulnerable regardless of the overall score.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the majority party or is likely to be won by the majority party.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the majority party.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the minority party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to change control. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
Overall assessment
The sum of the three individual ratings is used to determine the state's overall rating:
| 4-6 | Highly vulnerable |
| 3 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1-2 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which are holding elections for only two trifecta components in 2025, the sum of the two remaining ratings is used instead:
| 3-4 | Highly vulnerable |
| 2 | Moderately vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
In states which are holding elections for only one trifecta component in 2025, vulnerability is calculated as follows:
| 2 | Highly vulnerable |
| 1 | Somewhat vulnerable |
| 0 | Not vulnerable |
Assessing potential new trifectas
To determine the possibility of a particular party forming a trifecta in a state where one does not exist, we consider the likelihood of that party taking control of each individual trifecta component it currently lacks.
For instance, the Republican Party controls the Virginia governorship while the Democratic Party has majority control in both Virginia legislative chambers. Therefore, projections on the outcome of the gubernatorial election indicate the likelihood of a Democratic trifecta forming.
Gubernatorial races
The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the incumbent's party or is likely to be won by the incumbent's party.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the incumbent's party.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the challenger's party.
Legislative races
Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to change party control. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:
- 0 (no significant chance of changing party control): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 1 (chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
- 2 (significant chance of changing control): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5% of the seats up for election would need to change in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to change in order to change control of the chamber.
The scores of the individual components are added together to assess the overall likelihood of a trifecta forming. If the party lacks two trifecta components, the two ratings are totaled as follows:
| 3-4 | Moderate possibility |
| 1-2 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
If the party lacks only one trifecta component, a rating is determined as follows:
| 2 | Moderate possibility |
| 1 | Slight possibility |
| 0 | Low possibility |
See also
- State government trifectas
- Historical and potential changes in trifectas
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2022 elections
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2021 elections
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2020 elections
Footnotes
- ↑ Twitter, "Alex Seitz-Wald," November 7, 2018
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 31, 2025
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 31, 2025
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2020-2024," accessed January 7, 2025
- ↑ Excludes the 702,250 inhabitants of Washington, D.C.
| ||||||||||||||||
