Trump stirs anxiety among Republican Insiders
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September 14, 2015
While Donald Trump continues to lead in the national polls for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, many party Insiders worry his candidacy is damaging the GOP. A Ballotpedia survey of 125 Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives, found that 42 percent believe that “on balance” Trump “is hurting” the GOP. Only 12 percent believe that Trump “is helping” the party, but a plurality have a mixed view: 35% said his candidacy “both” helps and hurts the GOP, while another 10 percent said it does neither.
Critics of Trump listed a number of familiar reasons that his bid for the 2016 GOP nod is harmful to the party, and one of the top ones was the negative impact it could have on Republicans’ ability to attract minority voters. “Whatever progress was made in the past three years with Hispanics and immigrant families in general has been set back a decade,” said one GOP Insider. Echoed another, “There is no future in a party of nativism and exclusion; it’s like attacking the ocean with a rake.” The survey was conducted anonymously in order to encourage candor from the respondents.
Another complaint was that Trump not just the candidate in the spotlight in terms of the media coverage of the Republican race, he so dominates that GOP stage that his opponents have a hard time generating coverage. He’s the only candidate covered—in any depth—meanwhile, other candidates with solid policy proposals are ‘trumped’ by entertainment,” lamented one Republican influential. Another maintained that Trump “cannot win nomination or general, but [the] media attention he gets obscures the other candidates who can win, but need to get better known.” And while the Republicans are preparing for another debate this week were every candidate on stage will get to address a national audience, one GOP Insider joked, “Having Trump in the race is like trying to judge a debate with a stripper on stage.”
The handful of Republican Insiders who thought that the real estate billionaire was helping the party said that his reality TV show persona had created and atypical interest in the GOP contest. One Republican Insider said that Trump’s candidacy “made the campaign much more interesting; increased interest in politics; caused people to think ‘outside the box.’” Another opined, “The Republican process is very interesting to the public because of Trump. The eventual nominee will benefit.”
And some maintained that Trump was actually helping his rivals indirectly, by attracting eyeballs to the GOP race and, at times, even overshadowing it. “Draws huge audiences to debates,” said one Republican influential: “They watch the crazy guy but meet other candidates.” Another said that Trump “creates space for other candidates to make mistakes without getting too penalized,” presumably because the media is devoting most of its attention to Trump, not his rivals who trail him in the polls.
Those who feel that Trump “both” helps and hurts that Republican Party attribute his positive effect to his role as a media magnet, but worry about the broader impact of his candidacy. As one GOP Insider put it, Trump “increases attention, sucks oxygen out of Democratic race, but fires Republicans to move to difficult places on immigration, tolerance.” Another Republican wondered about the strength of Trump’s celebrity appeal and reflected the findings of recent polls that his candidacy appears to resonate most those less well educated who also have less propensity to vote. “The fact that 25 million people watched a Republican presidential primary debate is unprecedented, and it’s certainly a good thing to have people engaged,” said an influential Republican operative. “But somehow Trump has turned this primary process into a presidential reality show of sorts and low-information voters seem more interested in being entertained rather than being informed.”
Similarly, Republicans who said that Trump “neither” helps nor hurts the GOP reasoned that the real estate mogul wasn’t a Republican to begin with. “Trump is a political entity totally unto himself that transcends partisan identity,” insisted one Republican Insider. “While many from the left enjoy branding him a Republican, and he is certainly using the Republican primary process as his gateway, the bottom line is Trump is a singular entity and virtually no one sees him as the embodiment of Republicanism,” maintained another GOP.
But that was a minority view, and many more Republicans see Trump as toxic to their brand. He “keeps convincing non-GOP voters that the party is untruthful and crazy,” decried one Republican Insider. Another noted that it’s “hard to be the ‘adult’ party when your most prominent ‘spokesman’ is full of it.”
And the Trump skeptics predicated dire consequences from his White House run. “It’s hard to imagine any one person doing more to damage the Republican Party’s chance of winning the presidency in the America of the 21st century than this guy,” said one. Added another, “If he is the nominee the party will end up being at the lowest point it has ever been: would take a very long time to recover.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the forthcoming 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted September 4-9.
See also
- Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
