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U.S. Senate battleground primaries, 2024
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November 5, 2024 |
Last updated: June 12, 2024
General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. Primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes.
Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R).
On this page, you will find information on noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries that took place for the U.S. Senate in 2024.
Ballotpedia identified 10 U.S. Senate battleground primaries in 2024.
Click here for information on Democratic Party battleground primaries for the U.S. Senate in 2024.
Click here for information on Republican Party battleground primaries for the U.S. Senate in 2024.
Click on the links below to learn more about general election battlegrounds by race type:
- U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2024
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2024
- Gubernatorial battlegrounds, 2024
- Top-two and top-four battleground primaries, 2024
Criteria
It is typically difficult to predict how competitive primaries will be until after filing deadlines take place. However, Ballotpedia used a number of factors to give insight into the most interesting 2024 primary elections. Factors that were used to determine the competitiveness of primaries included:
- Whether or not the seat was open (retiring or resigning incumbent)
- Notable endorsements of multiple candidates
- Significant fundraising from multiple candidates
- Number of candidates
- Incumbent's years in office (if seeking re-election)
- Whether or not the general election was expected to be a battleground
U.S. Senate primaries
Democratic Party battleground primaries
There were 2 U.S. Senate Democratic battleground primaries in 2024.
- United States Senate election in Maryland, 2024 (May 14 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in Texas, 2024 (March 5 Democratic primary)
The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2024. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name.
Republican Party battleground primaries
There were 7 U.S. Senate Republican battleground primaries in 2024.
- United States Senate election in Arizona, 2024 (July 30 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Indiana, 2024 (May 7 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Michigan, 2024 (August 6 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Ohio, 2024 (March 19 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Utah, 2024 (June 25 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in Virginia, 2024 (June 18 Republican primary)
- United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2024 (May 14 Republican primary)
The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2024. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name.
Top-two and top-four battleground primaries
There was one U.S. Senate top-two or top-four battleground primary in 2024:
List of candidates
The table below contains a list of all candidates in U.S. Senate primary election battlegrounds in 2024. The table is fully searchable by candidate, party and candidacy status. Depending on the size of your screen, you'll either see a menu to the left of the table or an arrow at the top right corner, which you can use to select a state.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Republican | Advanced Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
Republican | Lost (Write-in) Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Republican | Advanced Primary | |
 | Democratic | Advanced Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost (Write-in) Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
 | Republican | Lost (Write-in) Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
 | American Independent Party of California | Lost Primary | |
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
 | Libertarian | Lost Primary | |
No party preference | Lost (Write-in) Primary | ||
No party preference | Lost (Write-in) Primary | ||
No party preference | Lost Primary | ||
 | No party preference | Lost Primary | |
No party preference | Lost Primary | ||
 | No party preference | Lost Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Republican | Advanced Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Democratic | Advanced Primary | |
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
 | Democratic | Lost Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Republican | Advanced Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
 | Republican | Lost Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Republican | Advanced Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
Republican | Lost Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Republican | Advanced Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Advanced Primary | ||
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
 | Democratic | Lost Primary | |
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
Democratic | Lost Primary | ||
Democratic | Lost Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Republican | Advanced Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
 | Republican | Lost Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Republican | Advanced Primary | |
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
 | Republican | Lost Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
| candidate | party | office | status |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Republican | Advanced Primary | |
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
Republican | Lost Primary | ||
 | Republican | Lost Primary |
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
2022 U.S. Senate battlegrounds
Ballotpedia identified 15 U.S. Senate battleground primaries in 2022, including seven Republican primaries and nine Democratic primaries. To read more about the 2022 Republican Party battleground primaries, click here. To read more about the 2022 Democratic Party battleground primaries, click here.
Other election analysis
Presidential election
- See also: Presidential election, 2024
Former President Donald Trump (R) won the November 5, 2024, presidential election.
The Democratic Party selected Vice President Kamala Harris (D) as its nominee during a virtual roll call vote on August 2, 2024, ahead of the in-person 2024 Democratic National Convention, which took place from August 19-22, 2024, in Chicago, Illinois.[1][2][3][4][5]
The Republican Party selected former President Donald Trump (R) as its 2024 presidential nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention, which was held from July 15-18, 2024, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Twenty-four candidates appeared on presidential election ballots across the country. Of those candidates, four qualified to appear on enough ballots — totaling at least 270 electoral votes — to win a majority of the Electoral College. Those noteworthy presidential candidates were Kamala Harris (D), Donald Trump (R), Jill Stein (G), and Chase Oliver (L).
Featured analysis
- Democratic and Republican presidential nominations: Ballotpedia is providing in-depth coverage of the 2024 Democratic and Republican presidential nomination process, including information on noteworthy candidates, campaign finance, important dates and deadlines, presidential debates, noteworthy endorsements, and more!
- Mixed-party election outcomes in presidential election years, 1916-2024: An analysis of how often the candidate of one party won the state’s presidential electoral votes while candidates of another party won a U.S. Senate seat, a majority of the state's U.S. House delegation, or a state legislative majority on the same ballot.
Tap the box below to show more analysis articles related to the 2024 presidential election.
- Presidential candidates
- Electoral College in the 2024 presidential election
- Prediction markets in the 2024 presidential election
- Presidential debates
- Timeline of presidential announcements
- Important dates in the 2024 presidential race
- Presidential election campaign finance
- Presidential election endorsements
- Presidential campaign logos and slogans
- Presidential election key staffers
- Democratic presidential nomination
- Republican presidential nomination
- Ballotpedia's Top 15 Elections to Watch, 2024
- Election results, 2024: Pivot Counties in the 2024 presidential election
- Election results, 2024: Analysis of voter turnout in the 2024 general election
United States House of Representatives
Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 5, 2024. The seats of all 435 representatives were up for election. The seats of the six non-voting members of the U.S. House were up for election as well.
Heading into the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority in the U.S. House with three vacancies. As a result of the elections, Republicans won 220 districts, retaining control of the chamber, while Democrats won 215 districts.[6]
The partisan breakdown in the U.S. House before and after the election was as follows:
| U.S. House Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 5, 2024 | After the 2024 Election | |
| Democratic Party | |||
| Republican Party | |||
| Vacancies | |||
| Total | 435 | 435[7] | |
Featured analysis (from 2022)
- Congressional margin of victory analysis: An electoral margin of victory (MOV) is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the runner-up in a single-seat election. In a multi-seat race, the MOV is the difference between the vote share received by the bottom-placing winning candidate and the top-placing losing candidate. Margins of victory can be used to measure electoral competitiveness, political party or candidate strength, and, indirectly, the popularity of a particular policy or set of policies. Congressional races in 2022, on average, were decided by a similar margin of victory (MOV) as in 2020. Relative to 2020, the average MOV increased in the Senate and in the House.
- Rematches in 2024 general elections: An election rematch occurs when the same candidates run against each other in consecutive election cycles. In the 2024 general election, 536 elections in Ballotpedia's coverage scope were rematches for single-seat offices between the same candidates who ran in 2022. Additionally, 69 elections in 2024 were rematches for single-seat offices between the same candidates who ran in 2020.[8]
Tap the box below to show more analysis articles related to the 2024 U.S. House of Representatives elections.
- Results of U.S. House campaign committee target districts, 2012-2024
- Congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer
- Congressional competitiveness report
- Overview of the 2024 United States House of Representatives elections
- New members elected to Congress
- Comparison of state delegations to the 118th and 119th Congresses
- Incumbents who did not run for re-election
- U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2024
- U.S. House districts represented by a Republican in 2024 and won by Joe Biden in 2020
- U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat in 2024 and won by Donald Trump in 2020
- Party committee fundraising
- Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024
- List of congressional candidates in the 2024 elections
- List of congressional challengers in the 2024 elections
- Ballotpedia's Top 15 Elections to Watch, 2024
- Trends in the margins of victory for incumbents of three or more terms, 2018-2024
- Wave election analysis
- Incumbents who won primaries by five percentage points or fewer or with a plurality, 2024
United States Senate
- See also: United States Senate elections, 2024
Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate, winning a 53-45 majority with two independents as a result of the November 5, 2024 elections. Two independents—Sens. Angus King and Bernie Sanders—caucus with the Democratic Party.
As a result of the elections, Republicans gained four seats in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Democrats gained one seat in Arizona. This was a net change of +4 Republicans, -2 Democrats, and -2 independents.
Heading into the 2024 general election, Democrats had a 47-49 majority with four independents. Three of those independents caucused with the Democratic Party, and one other, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema counted towards the Democratic majority for committee purposes.
Thirty-four of 100 Senate seats were up for election. Thirty-three of those seats were up for regular election, and one[9] was up for a special election. Democrats were defending three Senate seats, in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, in states Donald Trump (R) won in the 2020 presidential election. Republicans were not defending any Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in 2020.
Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats held 19, Republicans held 11, and independents held four. Eight members of the U.S. Senate did not run for re-election, more than in any year since 2012.
Ballotpedia identified 15 races (41.2%) as general election battlegrounds in 2024. Heading into the elections, Democrats held 11 of those seats, Republicans held three, and independents held one. Republicans won three seats previously held by Democrats in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and Democrats won the seat in Arizona, previously held by Kyrsten Sinema (I).
Ten seats were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. Nine incumbents retired from public office and one incumbent ran for another office. Click here to learn more.
Ballotpedia does not include incumbents leaving office early in our analysis of incumbents not running for re-election. For more information about incumbents who left office early or announced resignations, click here.
Two special elections also took place on Nov. 5, 2024. One special election was held to fill the last two years of the six-year term that Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) was elected to in 2020.[10] The other special election was held to fill the rest of the six-year term that Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2018. Feinstein died on Sept. 29, 2023. The Senate seat Feinstein held was also up for regular election on Nov. 5, 2024.[11] Ballotpedia identified 15 races as general election battlegrounds in 2024.
These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. For more information on our methodology, click here:
- the results of the 2020 presidential election in each state,
- whether the incumbent was seeking re-election,
- whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in the U.S. Senate, and
- how the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales rated the race.
Heading into the election, Democrats held a 50-49 majority in the U.S. Senate heading into the elections.[12] As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 53-47 majority.[13]
The partisan breakdown in the U.S. Senate before and after the election was as follows:
| Partisan composition, U.S. Senate | ||
|---|---|---|
| 119th Congress | ||
| Party | Members | |
| Democratic | 45 | |
| Republican | 53 | |
| Independent | 2[14] | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | |
Featured analysis (from 2022)
- Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report: Ballotpedia's 2022 study of competitiveness in congressional elections found that 14.3% of incumbent U.S. senators and representatives did not file for re-election. This was up from 9.6% in 2020 and 11.8% in 2018.
- Presidential election results in 2022 Senate states: Republicans were defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election. In Pennsylvania, where incumbent Pat Toomey did not seek re-election, Biden defeated Donald Trump (R) 50.0%-48.8% in 2020. In Wisconsin, where incumbent Ron Johnson sought re-election, Biden defeated Trump 49.5%-48.8%. Democrats were not defending any Senate seats in states Trump won in 2020.
Tap the box below to show more analysis articles related to the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.
- Results of U.S. House campaign committee target districts, 2012-2024
- Congressional elections decided by 10 percentage points or fewer
- Congressional competitiveness report
- Overview of the United States Senate elections in 2024
- New members elected to Congress
- Comparison of state delegations to the 118th and 119th Congresses
- Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024
- Wave election analysis
- Incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2024
- Party committee fundraising, 2023-2024
- List of congressional candidates in the 2024 elections
- List of congressional challengers in the 2024 elections
- States won by Donald Trump in 2020 with Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024
- States won by Joe Biden in 2020 with Republican-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024
- Trends in the margins of victory for incumbents of three or more terms, 2018-2024
- Incumbents who won primaries by five percentage points or fewer or with a plurality, 2024
See also
- Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
- United States Senate elections, 2024
- United States Congress elections, 2024
- United States Senate
- Battlegrounds
Footnotes
- ↑ USA Today, "Harris makes history as first Black woman, Asian American presidential nominee," August 2, 2024
- ↑ ABC News, "DNC to nominate Biden and Harris to bypass Ohio ballot issues," May 28, 2024
- ↑ The New York Times, "Democrats Set Aug. 1 for Harris Nomination Vote," July 24, 2024
- ↑ CBS News, "Kamala Harris closer to being nominee as DNC approves early virtual roll call vote," July 24, 2024
- ↑ DNC, "DNC and DNCC Chairs Announce Results of Presidential Nominating Petition Process and Opening of Virtual Roll Call on August 1," July 30, 2024
- ↑ These figures include the seat of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who resigned on November 13, 2024, after winning re-election.
- ↑ These figures include the seat of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) who resigned after winning re-election.
- ↑ This number only includes races for offices with four-year term lengths.
- ↑ This number does not include the special election for a Senate seat in California, as that seat was also up for regular election.
- ↑ Siouxland News, "Nebraska's Ben Sasse resigning from US Senate," December 5, 2022
- ↑ Associated Press, "Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, trailblazer and champion of liberal priorities, dies at age 90," September 29, 2023
- ↑ Three independents caucus with the Democratic Party. Another independent, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, counts toward the Democratic majority for committee purposes.
- ↑ Two independents caucus with the Democratic Party.
- ↑ Two independents caucus with the Democratic Party.
