U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2018

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2018 U.S. Senate Elections

Election Date November 6, 2018

U.S. Senate Elections by State

Battlegrounds • Battleground primaries GOP primaries • Democratic primaries

Arizona • California • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Hawaii • Indiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Dakota • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

U.S. House Elections by State

Battlegrounds • Battleground primaries

Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Thirty-five U.S. Senate seats, including two in special elections, were up for election on November 6, 2018.

Ballotpedia designated 16 of these 35 races as general election battlegrounds. The primary factors for determining which states were likely to be competitive were the vote margins from previous statewide elections as well as how the state voted in the most recent presidential elections. Other factors were also considered, such as whether a seat was open or if a particularly strong challenger had entered the race.

Democrats won nine of the battleground races and Republicans won seven. Following the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two and controlled 53 seats in the chamber, Democrats controlled 45 seats, and independents in Maine and Vermont who caucus with the Democrats held two seats.

Ballotpedia compiled the following resources to help voters better understand the U.S. Senate elections:

• Analysis of partisan control of the U.S. Senate following the election;
• Election results in the battleground U.S. Senate races;
• The partisan breakdown of the U.S. Senate before and after the election;
• Public opinion polls for the battleground races;
• Race ratings from election forecasters;
• Information about incumbents not running for re-election;
• Endorsements from national figures like Presidents Barack Obama (D) and Donald Trump (R); and
• Analaysis of federal elections.

2018 election analysis and context

Democrats were defending 26 of the 35 seats up for re-election, making it difficult for them to add the two seats necessary to wrest majority control from the Republicans. This situation occurs occasionally. To read more about how a disproportion in the number of seats up for election impacted partisan risk in the 2016 elections, click here.

Republicans won Democratic seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, while Democrats won Republican seats in Arizona and Nevada. Republicans will hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate in the 116th Congress.

Incumbents ran for re-election in 32 of 35 races. Five incumbent U.S. senators were defeated—four Democrats and one Republican. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, while Republicans had to defend just one seat in a state won by Clinton. All five of the incumbents who lost in 2018 were from those 11 states:

• North Dakota: U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D). Trump won the state by 36 points in 2016.

• Missouri: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) lost to Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R). Trump won Missouri by 18.5 percentage points in 2016. McCaskill's 2012 re-election was the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in Missouri.

• Indiana: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) lost to former state Rep. Mike Braun (R). Trump won Indiana by 19 points in 2016.

• Florida: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson (D) lost to term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R). Trump won Florida by 1.2 percentage points in 2016.

• Nevada: Incumbent U.S. Sen Dean Heller (R) lost to U.S. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D). Clinton won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points in 2016.

Pre-election analysis

Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a 51-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats held 47 seats, and the remaining two were held by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party.

• Democrats were defending 26 seats, including two held by independents, while Republicans were defending nine seats. The Democratic Party was at a disadvantage relative to the Republican Party, regardless of political climate.

• The Democratic Party had to defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, while Republicans had to defend one seat in a state won by Clinton over Trump in 2016. These states made up the majority of those considered to be battlegrounds in 2018.

• There were 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that had a Republican governor but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.

Battlegrounds map

Click here for more of Ballotpedia's coverage of U.S. Senate battleground races in 2018. The following map displays which Senate seats were up for election in 2018 and identifies those races that were considered battleground elections. Mouse over a state for more detailed information.

Results of United States Senate battlegrounds, 2018
State	Incumbent	Winner	Partisan change	Incumbent status
Arizona	Jeff Flake	Kyrsten Sinema	Yes	Incumbent didn't seek re-election
California	Dianne Feinstein	Dianne Feinstein	No	Won
Florida	Bill Nelson	Rick Scott	Yes	Lost
Indiana	Joe Donnelly	Mike Braun	Yes	Lost
Minnesota (special)	Tina Smith	Tina Smith	No	Won
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Josh Hawley	Yes	Lost
Mississippi (special)	Cindy Hyde-Smith	Cindy Hyde-Smith	No	Won
Montana	Jon Tester	Jon Tester	No	Won
North Dakota	Heidi Heitkamp	Kevin Cramer	Yes	Lost
New Jersey	Bob Menendez	Bob Menendez	No	Won
New Mexico	Martin Heinrich	Martin Heinrich	No	Won
Nevada	Dean Heller	Jacky Rosen	Yes	Lost
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Sherrod Brown	No	Won
Tennessee	Bob Corker	Marsha Blackburn	No	Incumbent didn't seek re-election
Texas	Ted Cruz	Ted Cruz	No	Won
West Virginia	Joe Manchin	Joe Manchin	No	Won

Criteria

The following criteria were the primary means for determining if a race was expected to be competitive in 2018. No specific number of criteria has to be met to label a state competitive, but all were considered in each race.

1. Margin of victory (MOV) in the past Senate elections:

The MOV in previous Senate elections is one of the primary methods for estimating the potential competitiveness of a state in the future. Ballotpedia considers competitive races to be those with an MoV of less than 10 percent and battlegrounds to be races with an MoV of less than five percent..

2. Margin of victory in the past presidential elections:

Like the MOV in past senate elections, how a president fared in each state is a big indicator of the recent political climate in a state. For instance, a Democratic incumbent in a state that supported President Donald Trump in 2016 is more likely to be vulnerable than a Democratic incumbent in a state that backed Hillary Clinton.

3. Open seats:

Incumbents have extremely high re-election rates. In 2016, 93.1 percent of incumbent senators who sought re-election won. An open seat is traditionally far more vulnerable than one in which the incumbent is seeking re-election, even if the incumbent is unpopular.

4. Time spent in office:

The number of terms an incumbent has spent in office has an impact on how vulnerable they may be. Freshmen incumbents tend to be more vulnerable than those who have served multiple terms in office.

5. Outside race ratings:

Race ratings from other outside sources like the Cook Political Report were considered when making our initial list of battlegrounds.

6. Special highlights:

Special highlights could include anything from a rematch of the 2012 Senate race, to an incumbent made vulnerable due to a scandal. Any special circumstances will be taken into account here.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

The following tabs feature the most recent polls in battleground Senate races in 2018.

Arizona

U.S. Senate election in Arizona, General election: Sinema vs. McSally
Poll	Poll sponsor	Sinema	McSally	Other/Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights November 2-3, 2018	N/A	48%	49%	3%	+/-3.9	631
Trafalgar Group October 30-November 1, 2018	N/A	50%	47%	3%	+/-2.1	2,166
Vox Populi Polling October 27-30, 2018	N/A	52%	48%	0%	+/-3.7	677
Fox News October 27-29, 2018	N/A	46%	46%	8%	+/-3.5	643
CNN/SSRS October 24-29, 2018	N/A	51%	47%	2%	+/-4.4	702
HighGround Public Affairs October 26-28, 2018	N/A	45%	47%	9%	+/-4.9	400
NBC News/Marist October 23-27, 2018	N/A	50%	44%	6%	+/-5.4	506
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 17-26, 2018	N/A	46%	48%	6%	+/-4.0	799
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights October 22-23, 2018	N/A	45%	52%	3%	+/-4.0	600
AVERAGES		48.11%	47.56%	4.44%	+/-3.99	791.56
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Click [show] to see older poll results

U.S. Senate election in Arizona, September 10-October 26, 2018 Poll Poll sponsor Sinema McSally Other/Undecided Margin of error Sample size CBS News/YouGov October 23-26, 2018 N/A 47% 44% 9% +/-4.1 972 The New York Times/Siena College October 15-19, 2018 N/A 46% 48% 6% +/-4.2 606 Data Orbital October 16-17, 2018 N/A 47% 41% 12% +/-4.0 600 CBS News/YouGov October 2-5, 2018 N/A 47% 44% 9% +/-3.6 898 OH Predictive Insights/ABC15 Arizona October 1-2, 2018 N/A 41% 47% 12% +/-4.0 600 Fox News Poll September 27-October 2, 2018 N/A 47% 45% 8% +/-3.5 716 Suffolk University September 27-30, 2018 N/A 45% 42% 13% +/-4.4 500 Latino Decisions September 10-25, 2018 Arizona State University 47% 41% 11% +/-3.5 775 AVERAGES 45.88% 44% 10% +/-3.91 708.38 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. U.S. Senate election in Arizona, March 15-September 21, 2018 Poll Kyrsten Sinema (D) Martha McSally (R) Other/Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size Emerson September 19-21, 2018 45% 39% 17% +/-4.4 650 NBC News September 16-20, 2018 48% 45% 7% +/-4.7 564 CNN/SSRS September 11-15, 2018 50% 43% 7% +/-4.3 761 Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 5-14, 2018 47% 44% 9% +/-3.5 1,016 Fox News September 8-11, 2018 47% 44% 8% +/-3.5 710 ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights September 5-6, 2018 46% 49% 5% +/-4.0 597 Gravis Marketing September 5-7, 2018 48% 49% 3% +/-3.3 882 Data Orbital September 4-6, 2018 44% 40% 16% +/-4.2 550 ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights July 23-25, 2018 48% 44% 8% +/-4.0 600 Gravis Marketing June 27-July 2, 2018 43% 39% 18% +/-3.2 925 Emerson June 21-22, 2018 40% 32% 28% +/-4.0 650 NBC News/Marist College June 17-21, 2018 49% 38% 13% +/-4.5 839 Axios/SurveyMonkey April 2-23, 2018 51% 42% 7% +/-4.0 1,667 Public Policy Polling March 15-16, 2018 46% 41% 13% +/-4.2 547 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

California

General election

U.S. Senate election in California, General election
Poll	Feinstein (D)	De León (D)	Undecided/Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size
SurveyUSA November 1-2, 2018	50%	36%	14%	+/-4.7	1,200
Berkeley IGS October 19-26, 2018	45%	36%	19%	+/-4.0	1,339
Probolsky Research October 25-30, 2018	41%	35%	24%	+/-3.3	900
Public Policy Institute of California October 12-21, 2018	43%	27%	31%	+/-3.3	1,704
Probolsky Research August 29-September 2, 2018	37%	29%	34%	+/-3.3	900
The Public Policy Institute of California July 8-17, 2018	46%	24%	9%	+/-3.4	1,711
LA Times June 6-17, 2018	36%	18%	46%	+/-4.0	893
Probolsky Research April 16-18, 2018	38%	27%	35%	+/-3.3	900
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Click [show] to see poll results from the top-two primary

Top-two primary U.S. Senate election in California, Feinstein, de León, and Bradley Poll Feinstein (D) De León (D) Bradley (R) Others Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size Berkeley-IGS May 22-28, 2018 36% 11% 7% 23% 25% +/-4.0 2,106 YouGov May 12-24, 2018 36% 11% 6% 24% 23% +/-4.0 1,113 Berkeley-IGS April 16-22, 2018 28% 11% 10% 14% 37% +/-3.5 1,738 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org U.S. Senate election in California, Top-two primary Poll Feinstein (D) Schrader (R) Kalemkarian (D) Little (R) De León (D) Melendez (D) Others Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size SurveyUSA March 22-25, 2018 31% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 13% 29% +/-5.0 517 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org U.S. Senate election in California, Top-two primary, Feinstein v. de León Poll Feinstein (D) de León (D) Others Undecided or Would not vote Margin of Error Sample Size Public Policy Institute of California March 4-13, 2018 42% 16% 2% 39% +/-3.4 1,706 Public Policy Institute of California January 21-30, 2018 46% 17% 3% 33% +/-3.2 1,705 Berkeley IGS Poll December 7-16, 2017 41% 27% 0% 32% +/-3.8 1,000 Public Policy Institute of California November 10-19, 2017 45% 21% 1% 33% +/-4.3 1,070 USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times October 27-Novmber 6, 2017 58% 31% 10% 31% +/-4.0 949 Sextant Strategies September 2017 34% 18% 33% 15% +/-3.4 1,197 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org U.S. Senate election in California, Feinstein, Little, De León, Hartson, Melendez, De La Fuente Poll Feinstein (D) Little (R) De León (D) Hartson (D) Melendez (D) De La Fuente (R) Other/Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size SurveyUSA April 19-22, 2018 39% 18% 8% 4% 4% 8% 19% +/-N/A 520 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Florida

U.S. Senate election in Florida, General election
Poll	Poll sponsor	Nelson	Scott	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size
St. Pete Polls November 3-4, 2018	FloridaPolitics.com	50%	46%	4%	+/-1.8	3,088
Quinnipiac University October 29-November 4, 2018	N/A	51%	44%	5%	+/-3.5	1,142
St. Pete Polls November 1-2, 2018	FloridaPolitics.com	48%	49%	3%	+/-1.9	2,733
Marist College October 30-November 2, 2018	N/A	50%	46%	4%	+/-5.0	595
Gravis Marketing October 29-November 2, 2018	N/A	48%	46%	6%	+/-3.6	753
AVERAGES		49.4%	46.2%	4.4%	+/-3.16	1,662.2
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Click [show] to see older poll results

U.S. Senate election in Florida, October 17-31, 2018 Poll Poll sponsor Nelson Scott Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size St. Pete Polls October 30-31, 2018 FloridaPolitics.com 49% 47% 3% +/-2.0 2,470 Vox Populi Polling October 27-30, 2018 N/A 50% 50% 0% +/-3.7 696 Trafalgar Group October 29-30, 2018 N/A 49% 47% 4% +/-1.9 2,543 Cygnal October 27-29, 2018 N/A 50% 48% 2% +/-4.4 495 CNN/SSRS October 24-29, 2018 N/A 49% 47% 4% +/-4.3 781 Suffolk University/USA TODAY October 25-28, 2018 N/A 45% 43% 12% +/-4.4 500 Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics October 17-25, 2018 N/A 49% 44% 4% +/-3.4 1,069 AVERAGES 48.71% 46.57% 4.14% +/-3.44 1,222 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. U.S. Senate election in Florida, October 14-27, 2018 Poll Poll sponsor Nelson Scott Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size New York Times/Siena College October 23-27, 2018 N/A 48% 44% 8% +/-4.0 737 CBS News/YouGov October 23-26, 2018 N/A 46% 46% 8% +/-4.0 991 Florida Atlantic University October 18-21, 2018 N/A 41% 42% 17% +/-3.6 704 Strategic Research Associates October 16-23, 2018 Gray Television 46% 45% 9% +/-3.5 800 St. Pete Polls October 20-21, 2018 N/A 48% 49% 3% +/-2.5 1,575 SurveyUSA/Spectrum News October 18-21, 2018 N/A 49% 41% 10% +/-5.0 665 Quinipiac University October 17-21, 2018 N/A 52% 46% 2% +/-3.5 1,161 SSRS October 16-20, 2018 CNN 50% 45% 4% +/-4.2 759 OnMessage Inc. October 14-18, 2018 N/A 46% 51% 3% +/-2.1 2,200 AVERAGES 47.33% 45.44% 7.11% +/-3.6 1,065.78 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. U.S. Senate election in Florida, General election Poll Bill Nelson (D) Rick Scott (R) Undecided/Other Margin of Error Sample Size NBC News/Marist September 16-20, 2018 48% 45% 7% +/-4.7 600 Tampa Bay Times September 17-20, 2018 45% 45% 10% +/-4.0 604 Florida Atlantic University September 13-16, 2018 41% 42% 17% +/-3.3 850 Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 5-12, 2018 45% 46% 10% +/-3.5 1,000 Rasmussen Reports September 10-11, 2018 45% 45% 11% +/-3.5 800 Quinnipiac August 30-September 3, 2018 49% 49% 2% +/-4.3 785 Gravis Marketing August 29-30, 2018 47% 47% 6% +/-2.8 1,225 Florida Atlantic University August 16-20, 2018 39% 45% 16% +/-3.4 800 Mason-Dixon Polling July 24-25, 2018 44% 47% 9% +/-4.0 625 Florida Atlantic University July 20-21, 2018 40% 44% 16% +/-3.4 800 Axios/Survey Monkey June 11-July 2, 2018 46% 49% 5% +/-5 1,080 CBS News/YouGov June 19-22, 2018 40% 42% 18% +/-3.5 1,002 NBC/Marist June 17-21, 2018 49% 45% 6% +/-3.7 1,083 Florida Chamber of Commerce May 25- June 4, 2018 45% 48% 5% +/-4.0 605 Morning Consult May 29-30, 2018 39% 40% 21% +/-3.0 1,119 Florida Atlantic University May 4-7, 2018 40% 44% 16% +/-3.0 1,000 McLaughlin & Associates March 10-13, 2018 46% 47% 6% +/-3.4 800 Clearview Research March 1-7, 2018 41% 43% 15% +/-3.6 750 Quinnipiac University February 23-26, 2018 46% 42% 13% +/-3.6 1,156 Florida Atlantic University February 1-4, 2018 34% 44% 12% +/-4.7 750 University of North Florida January 29-February 4, 2018 48% 42% 9% +/-4.7 429 Mason-Dixon Polling Strategy January 30-February 1, 2018 45% 44% 11% +/-4.0 625 Gravis Marketing November 19-24, 2017 44% 39% 17% +/-1.3 5,778 St. Leo University November 19-24, 2017 32% 42% 26% +/-4.5 500 JMC Analytics October 17-19, 2017 44% 44% 12% +/-4.0 625 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Indiana

U.S. Senate election in Indiana, Donnelly vs. Braun
Poll	Poll sponsor	Donnelly	Braun	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) October 27-30, 2018	Fox News	45%	38%	17%	+/-3.5	722
Marist University October 24-28, 2018	NBC News	45%	42%	13%	+/-5.5	496
Cygnal October 26-27, 2018	N/A	46%	49%	5%	+/-4.36	505
YouGov October 23-26, 2018	CBS News	43%	46%	11%	+/-3.7	975
Mason Strategies October 15-20, 2018	IndyPolitics.org	43%	47%	10%	+/-3.9	600
American Viewpoint October 14-17, 2018	Braun campaign	40%	44%	16%	+/-3.0	800
SurveyUSA October 12-16, 2018	Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics	41%	40%	19%	+/-4.6	1,400
Vox Populi (Republican vs. Democrat only, no undecided option) October 13-15, 2018	N/A	44%	38%	0%	+/-3.5	783
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) September 29-October 2, 2018	Fox News	43%	41%	16%	+/-3.5	695
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Center for Politics September 12-19, 2018	N/A	46%	43%	11%	+/-3.3	1,181
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) September 8-11, 2018	Fox News	43%	45%	12%	+/-3.5	677
Marist University August 26-29, 2018	NBC News	44%	41%	15%	+/-5.0	576
Trafalgar Group July 31-August 7, 2018	N/A	51%	39%	11%	+/-2.6	1,420
AVERAGES		44.15%	42.54%	12%	+/-3.84	833.08
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Mississippi

U.S. Senate special election in Mississippi, 2018
Poll	Poll sponsor	Hyde-Smith	Espy	McDaniel	Bartee	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size
NBC News/Marist October 13-18, 2018	N/A	38%	29%	15%	2%	15%	+/-6.1	511
Y'all Politics July 30-31, 2018	N/A	41%	27%	15%	1%	16%	+/-3.5	2,100
AVERAGES		39.5%	28%	15%	1.5%	15.5%	+/-4.8	1,305.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Missouri

U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018
Poll	Poll sponsor	Josh Hawley (R)	Claire McCaskill (D)	Other/Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
Trafalgar Group (October 29-November 4, 2018)	N/A	40%	45%	15%	+/-2.3	1,791
Emerson College (November 1-3, 2018)	N/A	49%	46%	5%	+/-3.8	732
Remington Research Group (November 1-2, 2018)	Missouri Scout	47%	47%	6%	+/-2.6	1,424
Marist University (October 30-November 1, 2018)	NBC News	44%	47%	9%	+/-5.2	600
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) (October 27-30, 2018)	Fox News	43%	43%	14%	+/-3.5	741
Cygnal (October 26-27, 2018)	N/A	49%	46%	5%	+/-4.38	501
Remington Research Group (October 24-25, 2018)	Missouri Scout	49%	45%	6%	+/-2.6	1,376
OnMessage Inc. (October 16-18, 2018)	Hawley campaign	49%	42%	9%	+/-3.46	800
Remington Research Group (October 17-18, 2018)	Missouri Scout	47%	46%	7%	+/-2.7	1,215
The Polling Company (October 11-13, 2018)	Citizens United	50%	47%	3%	+/-4.0	600
1st Tuesday Campaigns (October 5-6, 2018)	N/A	44%	42%	14%	+/-3.02	1,052
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics (September 27- October 7, 2018)	N/A	45%	44%	11%	+/-3.0	1,111
McLaughlin & Associates (September 29- October 2, 2018)	Missouri Rising Action	52%	44%	4%	+/-4.0	600
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) (September 29- October 2, 2018)	Fox News	43%	43%	13%	+/-3.5	805
AVERAGES		46.5%	44.79%	8.64%	+/-3.43	953.43
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Click here to see older polls

U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018 Poll Poll sponsor Josh Hawley (R) Claire McCaskill (D) Other/Undecided Margin of error Sample size SRSS Research (September 25- 29, 2018) CNN 44% 47% 9% +/-4.3 756 Remington Research (September 26- 27, 2018) Missouri Scout 48% 46% 6% +/-2.5 1,555 YouGov (September 10- 14, 2018) CBS News 45% 45% 10% +/-3.3 1,104 Trafalgar Group September 11-13, 2018 N/A 47% 44% 8% +/-2.4 1,724 Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) September 8-11, 2018 Fox News 41% 44% 15% +/-3.5 675 Marist University August 25-28, 2018 NBC News 40% 44% 16% +/-4.8 568 WPA Intelligence August 12-14, 2018 Club for Growth 48% 41% 11% +/-4.4 501 TJP Strategies August 8-9, 2018 Missouri Scout 47% 47% 6% +/-2.3 1,785 Remington Research July 7-8, 2018 The Missouri Times 48% 46% 6% +/-3.2 1,034 Gravis May 16, 2018 Petersen campaign 50% 43% 7% +/-3.4 822 OnMessage Inc. April 16-18, 2018 Hawley campaign 46% 47% 7% +/-4.0 600 Mason-Dixon Poll April 4-6, 2018 N/A 44% 45% 11% +/-4.0 625 Public Policy Polling January 8-9, 2018 The Majority Institute 44% 45% 11% +/-3.2 965 Remington Research January 3-4, 2018 Missouri Scout 49% 45% 6% +/-2.9 1,112 AVERAGES 45.79% 44.93% 9.21% +/-3.44 987.57 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Montana

United States Senate election in Montana, 2018
Poll	Poll sponsor	Jon Tester (D)	Matt Rosendale (R)	Other/Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
University of Montana, Big Sky (October 10-18, 2018)	N/A	49%	39%	12%	+/-4.33	533
Montana State University, Billings (October 8-13, 2018)	N/A	47%	38%	15%	+/-4.5	471
Public Policy Polling (September 28, 2018)	Protect Our Care	49%	45%	6%	+/-4.0	594
Axis Research (September 17-19, 2018)	National Republican Senatorial Committee	44%	44%	12%	+/-4.5	480
Beneson Strategy Group (September 6-16, 2018)	AARP	50%	43%	7%	+/-3.0	950
YouGov (September 10- 14, 2018)	CBS News	47%	45%	8%	+/-5.2	543
WPA Intelligence (August 20- 22, 2018)	National Republican Senatorial Committee	45%	47%	8%	+/-4.0	600
Remington Research (July 8 - 10, 2018)	N/A	49%	46%	5%	+/-2.0	2,581
AVERAGES		47.5%	43.38%	9.13%	+/-3.94	844
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Nevada

Throughout September and October 2018, 10 polls found Heller and Rosen tied within the polls' margins of error.

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L)
Poll	Poll sponsor	Dean Heller	Jacky Rosen	Tim Hagan	Undecided/None	Margin of error	Sample size
SSRS October 24-29, 2018	CNN	45%	48%	2%	4%	+/-4.8	622
NBC/Marist Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018	N/A	44%	42%	8%	6%	+/-5.5	574
SSRS September 25-29, 2018	CNN	43%	47%	4%	5%	+/-4.6	693
AVERAGES		44%	45.67%	4.67%	5%	+/-4.97	629.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) (with "Other" and "Don't know" options)
Poll	Poll sponsor	Dean Heller	Jacky Rosen	Other	Don't know	Margin of error	Sample size
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA October 12-19, 2018	N/A	47%	41%	8%	4%	+/-3.3	1,137
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D)
Poll	Poll sponsor	Dean Heller	Jacky Rosen	Undecided/None	Margin of error	Sample size
Emerson College November 1-4, 2018	N/A	45%	49%	4%	+/-3.0	1,197
Public Policy Polling October 15-16, 2018	Protect Our Care	46%	48%	7%	+/-3.9	648
Vox Populi (Democrat vs. Republican only, no undecided option) October 13-15, 2018	N/A	44%	44%	0%	+/-3.7	614
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8-10, 2018	N/A	47%	45%	7%	+/-4.0	642
NBC/Marist Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018	N/A	46%	44%	9%	+/-5.5	574
Ipsos September 7-17, 2018	N/A	46%	43%	8%	+/-3.7	1,039
Gravis September 11-12, 2018	N/A	45%	47%	8%	+/-3.7	700
Public Policy Polling August 20-21, 2018	Protect Our Care	43%	48%	9%	+/-4.3	500
Suffolk University July 24-29, 2018	N/A	41%	40%	9%	+/-4.4	500
AVERAGES		44.78%	45.33%	6.78%	+/-4.02	712.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L) v. Bakari (Independent American) v. Michaels (Independent)
Poll	Dean Heller	Jacky Rosen	Tim Hagan	Kamau Bakari	Barry Michaels	Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
Suffolk University September 5-10, 2018	41%	42%	2%	2%	2%	9%	+/-4.4	500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Click [show] to view polling conducted before the June 12, 2018, primary.

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) Poll Dean Heller (R) Jacky Rosen (D) Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size Public Policy Polling April 30-May 1, 2018 42% 44% 14% +/-3.9 637 Axios/Survey Monkey April 2-23, 2018 44% 50% 6% +/-5.0 1,332 Mellman Group April 12-19, 2018 40% 39% 21% +/-4.0 600 Public Policy Polling March 15-17, 2018 39% 44% 17% +/-3.7 720 Public Policy Polling June 23-25, 2017 41% 42% 17% +/-3.9 648 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org Republican primary U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Republican primary Poll Danny Tarkanian Dean Heller Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size JMC Analytics October 24-26, 2017 44% 38% 17% +/-4.4 500 JMC Analytics August 24-25, 2017 39% 31% 31% +/-3.7 700 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

New Jersey

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

U.S. Senate election in New Jersey
Poll	Poll sponsor	Menendez	Hugin	Sabrin	Unsure/Someone else/Wouldn't Vote	Margin of Error	Sample Size
Quinnipiac University (October 29 - November 4, 2018)	N/A	55%	40%	0%	5%	+/-4.0	1,115
Stockton University (October 25-31, 2018)	N/A	51%	39%	3%	6%	+/-4.0	598
Vox Populi Polling (October 27-29, 2018)	N/A	54%	46%	0%	0%	+/-3.4	814
Emerson College (October 24-26, 2018)	N/A	47%	42%	0%	7%	+/-4.0	659
Rutgers University (October 12-19, 2018)	N/A	51%	46%	0%	4%	+/-5.1	496
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Click [show] to see older poll results

U.S. Senate election in New Jersey Poll Menendez Hugin Sabrin Unsure/Someone else/Wouldn't Vote Margin of Error Sample Size Monmouth University (October 11-15, 2018) 49% 40% 1% 10% +/-4.3 527 Quinnipiac University (October 10-16, 2018) 51% 44% 0% 5% +/-4.3 873 CBS News/YouGov October 2-5, 2018 49% 39% 0% 12% +/-3.6 704 Quinnipiac University September 15- October 2, 2018 53% 42% 0% 5% +/-4.1 1,058 Fairleigh Dickinson University September 26-30, 2018 43% 37% 0% 21% +/-3.9 508 Stockton University September 19-27, 2018 45% 43% 3% 8% +/-4.3 531 Quinnipiac University Poll August 15-20, 2018 43% 37% 0% 20% +/-4.6 908 Gravis Marketing/Sabrin (L) Internal Poll August 14-15, 2018 40% 30% 7% 44% +/-3.6 753 Gravis Marketing July 6-10, 2018 43% 41% 0% 16% +/-4.1 563 Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

New Mexico

U.S. Senate election in New Mexico, Heinrich (D) v. Johnson (L) v. Rich (R)
Poll	Poll sponsor	Martin Heinrich	Gary Johnson	Mick Rich	Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
Research & Polling Inc. Oct. 26-Nov. 1, 2018	Albuquerque Journal	51%	12%	31%	6%	+/-4.7	993
Emerson College October 24-26, 2018	N/A	48%	16%	32%	6%	+/-3.4	936
Research & Polling Inc. September 7-13, 2018	Albuquerque Journal	47%	16%	26%	0%	+/-3.1	966
Emerson College August 17-18, 2018	N/A	39%	21%	11%	30%	+/-4.6	500
AVERAGES		46.25%	16.25%	25%	10.5%	+/-3.95	848.75
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

North Dakota

U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Cramer (R) v. Heitkamp (D)
Poll	Poll sponsor	Cramer	Heitkamp	Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) October 27-30, 2018	FOX News	51%	42%	4%	+/-3	789
Strategic Research Associates October 12-19, 2018	Gray TV	56%	40%	4%	+/-3.8	650
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) Sept. 28-Oct. 2, 2018	FOX News	53%	41%	3%	+/-3.5	704
Strategic Research Associates September 17-27, 2018	Gray TV	51%	41%	8%	+/-3.8	650
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) September 8-11, 2018	FOX News	48%	44%	6%	+/-3.5	701
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy June 13-15, 2018	N/A	48%	44%	8%	+/-4	625
AVERAGES		51.17%	42%	5.5%	+/-3.6	686.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Click [show] to view polling conducted before the June 12, 2018, primary.

U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Campbell (R) v. Heitkamp (D) (hypothetical match-up) Poll Tom Campbell (R) Heidi Heitkamp (D) Other Margin of Error Sample Size 1892 Polling October 11-12, 2017 44% 41% 15% +/-4.9 500 1892 Polling May 30-June 1, 2017 37% 43% 20% +/-4.9 500 Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Republican primary Poll Tom Campbell (R) Rick Berg (R) Other candidate(s) Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size 1892 Polling October 11-12, 2017 32% 34% 9% 35% +/-4.0 400 1892 Polling May 30-June 1, 2017 7% 39% 9% 45% +/-4.0 400 Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Ohio

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018
Poll	Poll sponsor	Sherrod Brown (D)	Jim Renacci (R)	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size
Gravis Marketing (October 29-30, 2018)	N/A	46%	37%	17%	+/-3.5	789
Cygnal (October 30-31, 2018)	N/A	52%	42%	6%	+/-4.4	503
Baldwin Wallace University (October 19-27, 2018)	N/A	51%	32%	17%	+/-3.8	1,051
Suffolk University (October 4-8, 2018)	The Cincinnati Enquirer	54%	36%	10%	+/-4.4	500
Baldwin Wallace University (September 28-October 8, 2018)	N/A	49%	33%	18%	+/-3.5	1,007
AVERAGES		50.4%	36%	13.6%	+/-3.92	770
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Click [show] to see older poll results

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018 Poll Sherrod Brown (D) Jim Renacci (R) Margin of error Sample size Triton Polling (September 18-20, 2018) 52% 42% 5% +/-3.1 1,003 Baldwin Wallace University (September 5-15, 2018) 49% 32% 19% +/-3.6 1,048 Politico/Morning Consult (September 2-11, 2018) 47% 31% +/-2 1,592 NBC/Marist (June 17-22, 2018) 51% 38% +/-4.4 778 Enquirer/Suffolk University (June 6-11, 2018) 53% 37% +/-4.4 500 Quinnipiac University (June 7-12, 2018) 51% 34% +/-3.7 1,082 Fallon Research (May 21-25, 2018) 48% 34% +/-3.5 800 Baldwin Wallace University (February 28, 2018 - March 9, 2018) 41% 29% +/-3 1,101 Survey USA (March 16, 2018 - March 20, 2018) 52% 38% +/-3.5 1,408 AVERAGES 49.33% 35% +/-3.47 1,034.67 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Tennessee

U.S. Senate in Tennessee, General election
Poll	Phil Bredesen (D)	Marsha Blackburn (R)	Undecided/Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size
East Tennessee State University October 22-29, 2018	44%	44%	12%	+/-4.0	610
SSRS October 24-29, 2018	45%	49%	6%	+/-4.3	764
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research October 27-30, 2018	41%	50%	5%	+/-3.0	850
Marist Poll October 23-27, 2018	46%	51%	4%	+/-4.0	910
Vanderbilt University October 8-13, 2018	44%	43%	12%	+/-4.9	800
Reuters October 4-11, 2018	44%	47%	10%	+/-3.4	1,108
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 7-11, 2018	40%	54%	6%	+/-4.2	593
YouGov October 2-5, 2018	42%	50%	8%	+/-3.4	1,002
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research September 29-October 2, 2018	43%	48%	10%	+/-3.5	806
Triton Polling and Research September 10-12, 2018	45%	48.3%	6.7%	+/-3.0	1,038
SSRS September 11-15, 2018	50%	45%	5%	+/-4.3	723
NBC News/Marist August 25-28, 2018	48%	46%	6%	+/-5.1	538
Gravis August 9-11, 2018	44%	48%	8%	+/-3.9	620
Public Policy Polling July 10-11, 2018	44%	41%	15%	+/-4.1	583
Middle Tennessee State University March 22-29, 2018	45%	35%	20%	+/-4.0	600
Garin-Hart-Yang (commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) October 20-22, 2017	46%	41%	13%	+/-4.1	601
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Texas

U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke
Poll	Poll sponsor	Cruz	O'Rourke	Other/Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
Trafalgar Group November 3-5, 2018	N/A	52%	43%	5%	+/-2.1	2,135
Emerson October 28-30, 2018	N/A	50%	47%	2%	+/-3.7	781
UT Tyler Polling Center October 15-28, 2018	N/A	46%	39%	15%	+/-3.0	1,033
Quinnipiac University October 22-28, 2018	N/A	51%	46%	3%	+/-3.5	1,078
CBS 11/Dixie Strategies October 25-26, 2018	N/A	52%	42%	5%	+/-4.0	588
University of Texas/Texas Tribune October 15-21, 2018	N/A	51%	45%	4%	+/-3.2	927
GBA Strategies October 18-21, 2018	End Citizens United	50%	46%	4%	+/-3.2	1,298
Reuters October 12-18, 2018	N/A	49%	44%	7%	+/-3.2	1,298
CNN/SRSS October 9-13, 2018	N/A	52%	45%	3%	+/-4.5	716
WPA Intelligence October 8-13, 2018	Club for Growth Action	52%	43%	5%	+/-3.5	801
New York Times/Siena College October 8-11, 2018	N/A	51%	43%	6%	+/-3.6	800
Quinnipiac University October 3-9, 2018	N/A	54%	45%	2%	+/-4.4	730
CBS News/YouGov October 2-5, 2018	N/A	50%	44%	6%	+/-4.2	881
Emerson October 1-5, 2018	N/A	47%	42%	11%	+/-4.5	500
AVERAGES		50.5%	43.86%	5.57%	+/-3.61	969
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Click [show] to see older poll results

U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke Poll Poll sponsor Ted Cruz (R) Beto O'Rourke (D) Other/Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size Public Policy Polling September 19-20, 2018 Protect Our Care 48% 45% 7% +/-4.0 613 Quinnipiac University September 11-17, 2018 N/A 54% 45% 1% +/-4.1 807 Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 6-14, 2018 N/A 45% 47% 8% +/-4.0 992 CBS 11/Dixie Strategies Poll September 6-7, 2018 N/A 46% 42% 11% +/-4.3 519 NBC News/Marist August 12-16, 2018 N/A 49% 45% 6% +/-3.8 759 Public Policy Polling August 2-3, 2018 N/A 46% 42% 12% +/-3.5 797 Quinnipiac University July 26-31, 2018 N/A 49% 43% 7% +/-3.5 1,118 Lyceum July 9-26, 2018 N/A 36% 34% 27% +/-3.45 806 Gravis Marketing July 3-7, 2018 N/A 51% 42% 7% +/-4.0 602 CBS News/YouGov June 19-22, 2018 N/A 44% 36% 20% +/-3.6 1,030 University of Texas/Texas Tribune June 8-17, 2018 N/A 41% 36% 22% +/-2.8 1,200 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner May 20-June 5, 2018 End Citizens United 49% 43% 8% +/-3.1 1,000 Quinnipiac University May 23-29, 2018 N/A 50% 39% 11% +/-3.8 961 Public Policy Polling May 21-22, 2018 Giffords 48% 42% 10% +/-3.3 861 JMC Analytics May 19-21, 2018 Red Metrics Group 47% 40% 13% +/-4.1 575 Quinnipiac University April 12-17, 2018 N/A 47% 44% 9% +/-3.6 1,029 Public Policy Polling January 17-18, 2018 End Citizens United 45% 37% 18% +/-3.6 757 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

West Virginia

U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey)
Poll	Poll sponsor	Joe Manchin (D)	Patrick Morrisey (R)	Undecided/Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size
Emerson College (October 28-31, 2018)	N/A	47%	42%	11%	+/-3.2	1,013
Research America (October 19-30, 2018)	The Metro News The Dominion Post	45%	40%	16%	+/-4.9	400
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (October 16-18, 2018)	National Republican Senatorial Committee	42%	44%	15%	+/-4.0	600
PopPolling Research (October 13-15, 2018)	N/A	53%	47%	0%	+/-3.5	789
Strategic Research Associates, LLC (October 12-19, 2018)	Gray Television	52%	36%	12%	+/-3.8	650
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Click [show] to view earlier polls of the general election.

U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey) Poll Poll sponsor Joe Manchin (D) Patrick Morrisey (R) Undecided/Other Margin of Error Sample Size The Polling Company (October 11-13, 2018) Citizens United Political Victory Fund 49% 45% 5% +/-4.0 600 Public Opinion Strategies (October 7-9, 2018) National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Morrisey campaign 41% 40% 19% +/-4.0 600 The Tarrance Group (September 23-25, 2018) 47% 43% 10% +/-4.1 612 Global Strategy Group (September 19-23, 2018) 48% 36% 16% +/-4.0 601 Strategic Research Associates, LLC (September 17-26, 2018) 46% 38% 16% +/-3.8 650 1892 Polling (September 24-25, 2018) 45% 45% 10% +/-4.4 500 Harper Polling (August 23-26, 2018) 47% 41% 12% +/-4.0 600 MetroNews Dominion Post (August 16-26, 2018) 46% 38% 16% +/-4.9 404 Trafalgar Group (July 13-16, 2018) 50% 40% 10% +/-2.9 1,158 Monmouth University (June 14-19, 2018) 49% 42% 9% +/-3.8 653 Public Policy Polling (June 12-13, 2018) 49% 42% 9% +/-3.9 633 Global Strategy Group May 13-16, 2018 50% 42% 8% +/-4.0 600 WPA Intelligence May 10, 2018 44% 46% 10% +/-4.9 400 Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin, Morrisey, and Blankenship) Poll Joe Manchin (D) Patrick Morrisey (R) Don Blankenship Undecided/Other Margin of Error Sample Size Monmouth University (June 14-19, 2018) 48% 39% 4% 8% +/-3.8 653 Public Policy Polling (June 12-13, 2018) 46% 35% 11% 7% +/-3.9 633 Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Click [show] to view polls conducted in 2017.

U.S. Senate general election in West Virginia, Mountain State Polls Poll Joe Manchin Evan Jenkins Alex Mooney Patrick Morrisey Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins (September 27-30, 2017) 49% 36% 0% 0% 15% +/-5.5 320 The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney (September 27-30, 2017) 49% 0% 35% 0% 17% +/-5.5 320 The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey (September 27-30, 2017) 45% 0% 0% 38% 17% +/-5.5 320 MetroNews West Virginia, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins (August 11-20, 2017) 50% 40% 0% 0% 11% +/-4.9 400 MetroNews West Virginia, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey (August 11-20, 2017) 51% 0% 0% 37% 11% +/-4.9 400 The Mountain State Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins (March 24-29, 2017) 52% 28% 0% 0% 20% +/-4.89 402 The Mountain State Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey (March 24-29, 2017) 51% 0% 0% 29% 20% +/-4.89 402 AVERAGES 49.57% 14.86% 5% 14.86% 15.86% +/-5.15 366.29 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Click [show] to view polling in the Republican primary.

U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, Republican primary Poll Patrick Morrisey (R) Evan Jenkins (R) Don Blankenship (R) Undecided/Other Margin of Error Sample Size Public Opinion Strategies (commissioned by Morrisey) April 22-23, 2018 28% 26% 15% 18% +/-4.4 500 Fox News April 18-22, 2018 21% 25% 16% 39% +/-3.0 985 GOPAC April 17-19, 2018 24% 20% 12% 44% +/-4.9 411 Harper Polling March 2018 19% 29% 27% 23% +/-4.4 500 Osage Research March 2018 24% 17% 22% 37% +/-4.4 500 Harper Polling February 5-6, 2018 25% 33% 18% 24% +/-4.4 500 Fabrizio, Lee and Associates October 19-22, 2017 40% 34% 0% 26% +/-4.9 400 Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Race ratings

The following table shows a range of potential 2018 election outcomes based on voter turnout according to ScottRasmussen.com. The projection draws on pundit race ratings issued by The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk.

According to Rasmussen, the Baseline scenario shows the election outcome if each party wins their tilt and lean-rated races and toss-ups are not counted. The Good Turnout scenarios show the election outcome if the party with good turnout "wins the tossup races and the opposite party's tilts in addition to all other expected wins." Click here to read more.

The following table compares the race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. It was updated biweekly.

Partisan breakdown

In the 2016 elections, the Republican Party lost two seats but maintained its Senate majority. Heading into the 2018 election, the Republican Party held the majority in the U.S. Senate with 51 Senate seats, Democrats had 47 Senate seats, and two seats were held by independents who caused with the Democratic Party. In the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two seats.

U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
Party		As of November 5, 2018	After the 2018 Election
	Democratic Party	47	45
	Republican Party	51	53
	Independent	2	2
	Vacancies	0	0
Total		100	100

Click here to learn more about the history of partisan control of the U.S. Senate from 2000 to 2016.

From 2000 to 2018, partisan control of the U.S. Senate changed four times. Republicans controlled the chamber entering 2000. Democrats temporarily took a one-vote majority in the Senate after Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords decided to leave the Republican Party, serve as an independent, and caucus with the Democrats in 2001. Shortly before the 2002 midterm election, however, Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) was killed in a plane crash. His replacement, former Vice President Walter Mondale (D), was defeated by Norm Coleman (R). Following the midterm election, Coleman became the 51st Republican senator. In 2005 and 2006, Republicans reached a high of 55 seats compared to the Democrats' 45.

Republicans lost control of the Senate in 2007 following the previous year's midterm election. Democrats won a 51-49 majority that year, which grew to a 59-41 split in 2010. The Senate changed hands again following the 2014 midterm election, and Republicans held a 54-46 majority in 2015 and 2016. This majority fell to a 52-48 split in 2017, and with the special election victory of Alabama Sen. Doug Jones (D) shrinking the Republican majority to 51-49 in 2018, partisan control of the Senate was at risk of changing as a result of the 2018 elections.

If partisan control of the chamber did change in part because of Jones' win, it was another instance of the Senate majority shifting due to unexpected circumstances. A historical example of this would be 1953, when the Republican majority in the Senate shrank to 48-47 after Oregon Sen. Wayne Morse left the Republican Party to become an independent. Nine senators died from 1953 to 1955. When Ohio Sen. Robert Taft (R) died during the summer of 1953, a Democrat was appointed to replace him, which gave the Democratic Party a one-vote majority. The following summer, Wyoming Sen. Lester Hunt (D) committed suicide and a Republican was appointed to replace him. This flipped the majority back into Republican control.

Special elections to the 115th U.S. Congress

See also: Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)

In the 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress in 2017 and 2018, nine Republicans and eight Democrats won. Four elections resulted in a partisan flip:

• Doug Jones (D), U.S. Senate in Alabama;
• Conor Lamb (D), Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District;
• Mary Gay Scanlon (D), Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District; and
• Susan Wild (D), Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District.

Results of special elections to the 115th Congress
Race	Election date	Incumbent	Winner	Election MOV	Previous election MOV	2016 Presidential election MOV
Kansas' 4th Congressional District	April 11, 2017	Mike Pompeo	Ron Estes	R+6	R+31	R+27
Montana's At-Large Congressional District	May 25, 2017	Ryan Zinke	Greg Gianforte	R+6	R+15	R+21
California's 34th Congressional District	June 6, 2017	Xavier Becerra	Jimmy Gomez	D+18	D+54	D+73
Georgia's 6th Congressional District	June 20, 2017	Tom Price	Karen Handel	R+4	R+24	R+1
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District	June 20, 2017	Mick Mulvaney	Ralph Norman	R+3	R+20	R+18
Utah's 3rd Congressional District	November 7, 2017	Jason Chaffetz	John Curtis	R+32	R+47	R+24
U.S. Senate in Alabama	December 12, 2017	Jeff Sessions	Doug Jones	D+2	R+28	R+28
Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District	March 13, 2018	Tim Murphy	Conor Lamb	D+0	R+100	R+19
Arizona's 8th Congressional District	April 24, 2018	Trent Franks	Debbie Lesko	R+6	R+38	R+21
Texas' 27th Congressional District	June 30, 2018	Blake Farenthold	Michael Cloud	R+23	R+24	R+23
Ohio's 12th Congressional District	August 7, 2018	Patrick Tiberi	Troy Balderson	R+1	R+40	R+11
Michigan's 13th Congressional District	November 6, 2018	John Conyers Jr.	Brenda Jones	D+78	D+61	D+61
U.S. Senate in Minnesota	November 6, 2018	Al Franken	Tina Smith	D+11	D+10	D+2
U.S. Senate in Mississippi	November 6, 2018	Thad Cochran	Cindy Hyde-Smith	R+8	R+22	R+18
New York's 25th Congressional District	November 6, 2018	Louise Slaughter	Joseph Morelle	D+16	D+12	D+16
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District	November 6, 2018	Patrick Meehan	Mary Gay Scanlon	D+6	R+19	D+2
Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District	November 6, 2018	Charlie Dent	Susan Wild	D+0	R+20	R+8

Incumbents not running for re-election

See also: List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018

U.S. senators not running for re-election, 2018

• 0 Democrats
• 3 Republicans

Name:	Party:	Current office:
Bob Corker	Republican	Tennessee
Jeff Flake	Republican	Arizona
Orrin Hatch	Republican	Utah

Historical comparison of incumbents not running for re-election

The following table includes figures on Democratic and Republican members of Congress who either left office during their term or announced that they would not seek re-election for each election year since 2012.

Outgoing members of Congress, 2012-2018
Year	Chamber	Democrats not seeking re-election	Republicans not seeking re-election	Total not seeking re-election	Democrats leaving office early	Republicans leaving office early	Total leaving office early
2018
	U.S. Senate	0	3	3	1	2	3
	U.S. House	18	34	52	3	14	17
	Total	18	37	55	4	16	20
2016
	U.S. Senate	3	2	5	0	0	0
	U.S. House	16	24	40	2	5	7
	Total	19	26	45	2	5	7
2014
	U.S. Senate	5	2	7	3	2	5
	U.S. House	16	25	41	3	6	9
	Total	21	27	48	6	8	14
2012
	U.S. Senate	6	3	10	0	0	0
	U.S. House	23	20	43	4	1	5
	Total	29	23	53	4	1	5

Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report

See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018

Ballotpedia’s 2018 study of competitiveness in congressional elections found that nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators would not be on the 2018 general election ballot.

HIGHLIGHTS

Of the U.S. representatives and U.S. senators who could have been eligible to run for re-election in 2018, 58 of them (12.9 percent) either decided not to do so or were defeated in a partisan primary before reaching the general election.

In those 58 open seats where an incumbent either decided not to seek re-election or was defeated in a primary before the general election, there were 16 races where the incumbent's district overlapped at least one pivot county (a county that voted twice to elect President Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then switched to supporting President Trump for 2016).

In 22 races, the incumbent chose instead to run for a statewide office or (in one case) for U.S. president. One of every 10 U.S. House races nationwide in 2018 featured just one major party candidate participating in the general election.

Outcome of recent presidential and gubernatorial elections

The following section compares data from recent presidential and gubernatorial elections with the party of the incumbent in each 2018 Senate race. These trends can be used as an early indicator of expected competitive Senate races in the 2018 elections. All of these statistics predict that the Democratic Party will be far more vulnerable than the Republican Party in the 2018 Senate elections.

• There were 10 states with a Democratic incumbent that Donald Trump won in 2016—Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—and only one state with a Republican incumbent that was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016: Nevada.

• There were 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that have a Republican governor—New Mexico, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine—but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.

• There were four states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012 that were won by Donald Trump in 2016—Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—but no states that were won by the Republican nominee in 2008 and 2012 (McCain and Romney) that were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Key endorsements

Barack Obama

See also: Endorsements by Barack Obama

Donald Trump

See also: Endorsements by Donald Trump

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. Senate wave elections
Year	President	Party	Election type	Senate seats change	Senate majority
1932	Hoover	R	Presidential	-13	D (flipped)
1958	Eisenhower	R	Second midterm	-12	D
1946	Truman	D	First midterm	-10	R (flipped)
1980	Carter	D	Presidential	-9	R (flipped)
2014	Obama	D	Second midterm	-9	R (flipped)
1942	Roosevelt	D	Third midterm	-8	D
2008	George W. Bush	D	Presidential	-8	D
1926	Coolidge	R	First midterm	-7	R
1930	Hoover	R	First midterm	-7	R
1986	Reagan	R	Second midterm	-7	D (flipped)

Analysis of federal elections, 2018

See also: Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018

All 435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats were up for regular elections in the 2018 midterms. Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a majority in both chambers.

All federal elections:

Ballotpedia's 2018 Candidate Connection report

United States Congress elections, 2018

Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2018

Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)

List of candidates who ran in U.S. Congress elections, 2018

List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018

Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018

Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections

Incumbents defeated in 2018 congressional elections

Incumbent win rates by state

New members elected in 2018 congressional elections

Comparison of state delegations to the 115th and 116th Congresses

Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less, 2018

Results of federal elected officials seeking other offices, 2018

Noteworthy minor party candidates in the 2018 elections

PredictIt markets in the 2018 elections

Fundraising in Congressional elections, 2018

Battleground election polls, 2018

Timeline of events impacting 2018 congressional elections

Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018

U.S. Senate elections:

U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2018

United States Senate elections, 2018

Control of the U.S. Senate

States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018

U.S. House elections:

U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018

United States House of Representatives elections, 2018

Control of the U.S. House

U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016

U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016

U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2018

See also

Suggest a link

• United States Congress elections, 2018
• United States Senate elections, 2018
• United States Senate
• Battlegrounds

Footnotes

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Ballotpedia

About

Overview • What people are saying • Support Ballotpedia • Contact • Contribute • Job opportunities

---

Executive: Leslie Graves, Founder and CEO • Gwen Beattie, Chief Operating Officer

Communications: Alison Graves, Director of Communications • Carley Allensworth • Abigail Campbell • Frank Festa • Sarah Groat • Nathaniel Harwood • Dillon Redmond • Erica Shumaker
External Relations: Geoff Pallay, Director of External Relations • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Ashley Fleming • Thomas Mardik • Hannah Nelson
Operations: Meghann Olshefski, Director of Operations • Amanda Herbert • Mandy Morris • Caroline Presnell • Kelly Rindfleisch
Tech: Matt Latourelle, Director of Technology Operations • Ryan Burch • Kirsten Corrao • Beth Dellea • Travis Eden • Tate Kamish • Margaret Kearney • Eric Lotto • Joseph Sanchez • Mary Susmitha

Contributors: Scott Rasmussen

---

Editorial Content

Josh Altic, Director of Content • Daniel Anderson, Associate Director of Elections & Data • Cory Eucalitto, Associate Director of Features • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor of Ballot Measures • Mandy McConnell, Managing Editor of News • Doug Kronaizl, Managing Editor of Local Expansion • Abbey Smith, Managing Editor of Elections • Janie Valentine, Managing Editor of Law • Joel Williams. Managing Editor of Events • Andrew Bahl • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Jon Dunn • Thomas Ellis • Nicole Fisher • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Brianna Hosea • Molly Kehoe • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Norm Leahy, Senior Editor • Nathan Maxwell • Jimmy McAllister • Brandon McCauley • Ellie Mikus • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Annelise Reinwald • Ethan Rice • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Emma Soukup • Alexis Thacker • Mina Vogel • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox