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United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018

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2018 U.S. House Elections
Election Date
November 6, 2018
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Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 6, 2018. All 435 seats were up for election. Special elections were also held to fill vacancies that occurred in the 115th Congress. This page provides an overview of U.S. House Democratic Party primaries, including which races have been identified as competitive, when elections were being held, and how the media covered them.

As of October 2018, the Republican Party was in the majority, holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven seats being vacant. The Democratic Party was favored to gain seats in the chamber in 2018, as the party of a newly elected president has historically lost seats in Congress in the following midterm election. Since 1934, the party of a newly elected president has suffered an average loss of 23 seats in the House in the following midterm.

Primary elections—in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election—do more than simply select candidates. They often determine a party's self-definition. In September 2017, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) said of the future of the Democratic Party, "We're going to have a fight. There's no question about it."[1]

The ideological divide between progressive and moderate Democrats highlighted during the 2016 Democratic presidential primary remained as the party sought to redefine itself under the Trump administration. Long-time incumbent Reps. and Joe Crowley (D-NY) and Michael Capuano (D-MA) were defeated in their primaries while others, such as Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.), survived spirited challenges. Furthermore, a record number of Republican congressional retirements led to large Democratic fields for House seats which have not historically been competitive.[2]

Beyond policy differences, limited resources will also play a role in how fiercely contested Democratic primaries will be. "The Democratic Party now has more candidates than it can support, and next spring is likely to be a season of what national Democratic officials tactfully refer to as 'messy primaries,'" The New York Times reported in November 2017.[3]

This page focuses on the U.S. House Democratic primaries. For more in-depth information about the U.S. House Republican primaries and general elections, see the following pages:

Partisan breakdown

Following the 2016 general election, the Democratic Party gained six seats. They picked up seven seats while only losing one in Nebraska. The Democratic Party fell far short of the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As a result, the Democratic Party needed to pick up 24 seats in 2018 to win the chamber.[4]

U.S. House Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 5, 2018 After the 2018 Election
     Democratic Party 193 235
     Republican Party 235 200[5]
     Vacancies 7 0
Total 435 435


Democratic primaries

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Battleground primaries

Ballotpedia identified 79 Democratic federal and state battleground primaries in 2018.


Fifty-two of those 79 Democratic races were for seats in the U.S. House.

U.S. House battleground primaries

Factional conflict

See more here: Democratic Party factional conflict in U.S. House primaries, 2018

Disputes between candidates endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and candidates outside the official organs of the Democratic Party occurred in U.S. House primaries in 2018.

The DCCC supported House candidates they believed would be competitive in general elections. The group said its "Red to Blue" program, which gave candidates organizational and fundraising support, backed candidates who "will take the fight to Paul Ryan’s House Republicans -- and fight to flip these seats from red to blue."[6]

Other candidates, activists, and influencers criticized the DCCC's choices and claimed that the group did not always support candidates who were sufficiently progressive. In January 2018, Ryan Grim and Lee Fang with The Intercept wrote "In district after district, the national party is throwing its weight behind candidates who are out of step with the national mood."[7]

An example of the conflict between Democratic officials and progressives occurred in Colorado's 6th District when Levi Tillemann, who was endorsed by the Progressive Democrats of America, released a tape-recorded conversation with House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer. Tilleman told Hoyer the DCCC should stay out of the race. Hoyer urged Tillemann to drop out, saying the Democratic Party's decision to back his opponent, Jason Crow, had been made a long time ago.[8]

An example outside the House primaries was U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) reaction to DNC Chairman Tom Perez's endorsement of New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in his primary against Cynthia Nixon, who cast herself as a progressive alternative to Cuomo. Sanders said Perez's endorsement might alienate working people and younger voters from joining the party.[9]

This page identifies competitive Democratic primaries where the DCCC backed a candidate prior to the primary and tracks DCCC-backed and non-DCCC backed candidate performance. The chart below shows a summary of results in the primaries we tracked.

U.S. House Democratic factions
Faction Primary victories in 2018
Endorsed by DCCC 31
Not endorsed by DCCC 2

Media coverage

See also: Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018

The media highlighted various events that potentially impacted the outcome of the 2018 mid-term elections. This included major policy developments, the outcome of certain interim or special elections, and noteworthy national and international events. Such stories assessed the impact of these major events on the 2018 elections for the U.S. House or U.S. Senate, and sometimes, both.

Democratic primaries

  • Katrina vanden Heuvel discussed the state of the progressive insurgency in the Democratic Party in an Atlantic article (August 16, 2018):
"How do you cover an insurgency like the one now roiling the Democratic Party? The mainstream media’s treatment would give readers a severe case of whiplash. The 2018 primaries had barely started when The New York Times announced the virtual demise of the movement sparked by Bernie Sanders. Then, when newcomer Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez eviscerated Joe Crowley, the fourth-ranking Democrat in the House, in a New York primary, the Times ran a story headlined There Is a Revolution on the Left, warning that 'a new generation of confrontational progressives has put Democrats at the precipice of a sweeping transition.'
"To date, the reform movement has made its greatest gains in the war of ideas. This shouldn’t be surprising. The reforms that the activists are championing are bold, striking, and address real needs: Medicare for all, tuition-free public college, a $15 minimum wage, universal pre-K, a federal jobs guarantee, a commitment to rebuild America, a challenge to big-money politics, police and prison reforms, and a fierce commitment to liberty and justice for all."
"Moreover, the media too often assume that if the movement candidate has lost, a 'moderate' has won. ... The media need to focus less on the horse races and more on what’s being built and what’s being discarded. The insurgency is neither on its deathbed nor about to sweep out the old. Indeed, Democrats are still in the early stages of a huge debate on the party’s direction. Insurgent candidates are only starting to build the capacity to run serious challengers."[10]


Presidential data

The following statistics were compiled using the Daily Kos' presidential results by congressional district data. These trends can be used as an early indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2018 elections.[11]

Cook Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

The chart above details the 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for each U.S. House district. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district."[12][13][14]

Race ratings

The following table compares the most recent race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections.

Targeted races

DCCC

Targets

The DCCC unveiled its initial list of targeted Republican incumbents on January 30, 2017.[15]

Frontline Program

The DCCC released the initial members of the Frontline Program on March 6, 2017. The Frontline Program is designed to help raise money and assist vulnerable incumbents seeking re-election.[17]

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee 2018 Frontline Program
District Incumbent
Arizona's 1st District Tom O'Halleran
California's 7th District Ami Bera
California's 24th District Salud Carbajal
California's 36th District Raul Ruiz
California's 52nd District Scott Peters
Connecticut's 5th District Elizabeth Esty
Florida's 7th District Stephanie Murphy
Florida's 13th District Charlie Crist
Illinois' 10th District Brad Schneider
Illinois' 17th District Cheri Bustos
Iowa's 2nd District Dave Loebsack
Minnesota's 8th District Rick Nolan
Nevada's 3rd District Jacky Rosen
Nevada's 4th District Ruben Kihuen
New Hampshire's 1st District Carol Shea-Porter
New Hampshire's 2nd District Annie Kuster
New Jersey's 5th District Josh Gottheimer
New York's 3rd District Tom Suozzi
New York's 18th District Sean Maloney

Special elections

See also: Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)

Special elections made up the bulk of Ballotpedia's congressional election coverage in 2017. Special elections to Congress occur when a legislator resigns or is removed from office. Depending on the specific state laws governing vacancies, a state can either hold an election within the same calendar year, or wait until the next regularly scheduled election. Since 2016 was a presidential year, there were expected to be more special elections than normal for members of Congress chosen for cabinet positions.

Expected special elections

The table below displays a running list of the confirmed special elections to the 115th United States Congress.

The table below lists special elections to the 115th United States Congress.

District Prior Incumbent Primary Date General Election Candidates Election Date Winner Partisan Switch?
Michigan's 13th John Conyers Jr. August 7, 2018 Democratic Party Brenda Jones
Republican Party No Republican filed		 November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Brenda Jones No
New York's 25th Louise Slaughter - Democratic Party Joseph Morelle
Republican Party James Maxwell		 November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Joseph Morelle No
Pennsylvania's 7th Patrick Meehan - Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon
Republican Party Pearl Kim		 November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon Yes
Pennsylvania's 15th Charlie Dent - Democratic Party Susan Wild
Republican Party Marty Nothstein		 November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Susan Wild Yes
South Carolina's 5th Mick Mulvaney May 2, 2017 Democratic Party Archie Parnell
Republican Party Ralph Norman
Independent Five other candidates		 June 20, 2017 Republican Party Ralph Norman No
U.S. Senator from Alabama Jeff Sessions August 15, 2017 Republican Party Roy Moore
Democratic Party Doug Jones
Grey.png Arlester McBride		 December 12, 2017 Democratic Party Doug Jones Yes
Utah's 3rd Jason Chaffetz August 15, 2017 Republican Party John Curtis
Democratic Party Kathie Allen
Libertarian Party Joe Buchman
Independent_American_Party Jason Christensen
Independent Sean Whalen
Independent Jim Bennett
 November 7, 2017 Republican Party John Curtis No
Pennsylvania's 18th Tim Murphy N/A Democratic Party Conor Lamb
Republican Party Rick Saccone		 March 13, 2018 Democratic Party Conor Lamb Yes
Georgia's 6th Tom Price April 18, 2017[18] Democratic Party Jon Ossoff
Republican Party Karen Handel		 June 20, 2017[19] Republican Party Karen Handel No
Arizona's 8th Trent Franks February 27, 2018 Democratic Party Hiral Tipirneni
Republican Party Debbie Lesko		 April 24, 2018 Republican Party Debbie Lesko No
Montana's At-Large Ryan Zinke N/A Republican Party Greg Gianforte
Democratic Party Rob Quist
Libertarian Party Mark Wicks		 May 25, 2017 Republican Party Greg Gianforte No
U.S. Senator from Minnesota Al Franken August 14, 2018 Democratic Party Tina Smith
Republican Party Karin Housley
Grey.png Jerry Trooien
* Sarah Wellington		 November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Tina Smith No
U.S. Senator from Mississippi Thad Cochran June 5, 2018 Pending November 6, 2018 Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith No
Texas' 27th Blake Farenthold N/A Democratic Party Raul (Roy) Barrera
Democratic Party Eric Holguin
Democratic Party Mike Westergren
Republican Party Bech Bruun
Republican Party Michael Cloud
Republican Party Marty Perez
Libertarian Party Daniel Tinus
Grey.png Judith Cutright
Grey.png Chris Suprun		 June 30, 2018 Republican Party Michael Cloud No
Ohio's 12th Patrick Tiberi May 8, 2018 Democratic Party Danny O'Connor
Republican Party Troy Balderson
Green Party Joe Manchik
Grey.png Jonathan Veley		 August 7, 2018 Republican Party Troy Balderson No
California's 34th Xavier Becerra April 4, 2017 Democratic Party Robert Lee Ahn
Democratic Party Jimmy Gomez		 June 6, 2017 Democratic Party Jimmy Gomez No
Kansas' 4th Mike Pompeo N/A Republican Party Ron Estes
Democratic Party Jim Thompson
Libertarian Party Chris Rockhold		 April 11, 2017 Republican Party Ron Estes No


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ TIME, "Divided Democratic Party Debates Its Future as 2020 Looms," September 21, 2017
  2. ↑ CNN, "9 Democratic primaries to watch in 2018," October 26, 2017
  3. ↑ The New York Times, "A Post-Obama Democratic Party in Search of Itself," November 1, 2017
  4. ↑ The New York Times, "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control," accessed November 15, 2016
  5. ↑ One undecided 2018 race was decided in September 2019 when Dan Bishop (R) won the special election. The state board of elections called a new election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud in the 2018 race. Unofficial returns from the 2018 election showed Mark Harris (R) leading McCready, who was also the Democratic candidate in 2018, by 905 votes. Harris said he did not run again in 2019 due to health issues. Click here for more information on the aftermath of the 2018 election.
  6. ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue Candidates," accessed May 15, 2018
  7. ↑ The Intercept, "THE DEAD ENDERS: Candidates Who Signed Up to Battle Donald Trump Must Get Past the Democratic Party First," January 23, 2018
  8. ↑ The Intercept, "Secretly Taped Audio Reveals Democratic Leadership Pressuring Progressive to Leave Race," April 26, 2018
  9. ↑ YouTube, "Bernie Sanders: "Absolutely" A Mistake For Perez To Endorse Cuomo, Bad Sign For 2020," June 6, 2018
  10. ↑ The Nation, "The Democratic Insurgency Is Winning the War of Ideas," August 26, 2018
  11. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed February 8, 2017
  12. ↑ Politico, "Charlie Cook's PVI," April 10, 2009
  13. ↑ RedState, "New Cook PVIs Show Big Opportunities for Conservatives in the House," October 11, 2012
  14. ↑ Swing State Project, "Just what is the Partisan Voter Index (PVI)?" November 16, 2008
  15. ↑ DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  16. ↑ The North Carolina Board of Elections declined to certify a winner in the 9th Congressional District.
  17. ↑ Roll Call, "Democrats Identify Vulnerable Members for 2018," March 6, 2017
  18. ↑ While technically a general election, the April 18 election was functionally a top-two primary because no candidate received the 50 percent of the vote required to win the race outright.
  19. ↑ June 20, 2017, runoff election between Republican Karen Handel and Democrat Jon Ossoff.
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