United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018

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2018 U.S. House Elections
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November 6, 2018
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Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 6, 2018. All 435 seats were up for election. Special elections were held to fill vacancies that occurred in the 115th Congress.

This page provides an overview of U.S. House Republican Party primaries, including which races have been identified as competitive, when elections are being held, and how the media has covered them.

As of October 2018, the Republican Party was in the majority, holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven seats being vacant. Due to the overall reduction in the number of competitive districts, it was difficult for the Democratic Party to flip control of the chamber in 2018. Democratic gains were possible though, as the party of a newly elected president has historically lost seats in Congress in the following midterm election.

This page focuses on the U.S. House Republican primaries. For more in-depth information about the U.S. House Democratic primaries and general elections, see the following pages:

Partisan breakdown

Following the 2016 general election, the Democratic Party gained six seats. They picked up seven seats while only losing one in Nebraska. The Democratic Party fell far short of the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As a result, the Democratic Party needed to pick up 24 seats in 2018 to win the chamber.[1]

U.S. House Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 5, 2018 After the 2018 Election
     Democratic Party 193 235
     Republican Party 235 200[2]
     Vacancies 7 0
Total 435 435


Republican primaries

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Battleground primaries

Ballotpedia identified 78 Republican federal and state battleground primaries in 2018.


Forty-two of those 78 Republican races were for seats in the U.S. House.

U.S. House battleground primaries

Factional conflict

See more here: Republican Party factional conflict in U.S. House primaries, 2018

Disputes between potential members of the House Freedom Caucus and other members of the Republican Party occurred in U.S. House primaries in 2018.

Led by U.S. Reps. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the House Freedom Caucus supported candidates who were likely to join its ranks if elected to the House.[3][4] Other wings of the Republican Party, including those aligned with House Republican leadership, often preferred candidates not aligned with the Freedom Caucus.

The Freedom Caucus said it "gives a voice to countless Americans who feel that Washington does not represent them" and supported "open, accountable and limited government, the Constitution and the rule of law, and policies that promote the liberty, safety and prosperity of all Americans."[5] The Pew Research Center said the group formed in January 2015 "with the declared aim of pushing the House GOP leadership rightward on certain fiscal and social issues" and wanted "power shifted away from the leadership to the rank-and-file."[6]

Other House Republican caucuses more closely allied with leadership included the Republican Main Street Partnership, which aimed for "conservative, pragmatic, solutions-oriented policies that can gain support from legislators on both sides of the aisle," and the Republican Study Committee, which "is dedicated to a limited and Constitutional role for the federal government, a strong national defense, the protection of individual and property rights, and the preservation of traditional family values."[7][8]

Scott Wong wrote for The Hill that the primaries were a "proxy battle over how much influence...the Freedom Caucus can exert over the House GOP conference next year— and who might lead Republicans after retiring Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) steps down."[7] Jordan emerged as a speaker contender and announced he would run for the position against Ryan's preferred candidate, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).[7] After Republicans lost their majority in the general elections, McCarthy defeated Jordan in a contest for Republican minority leader. The vote was 159 to 43.[9]

To detail this fight, we identified competitive open Republican primaries where the Freedom Caucus or its leaders backed a candidate.[10] We also considered primaries where candidates say they would join the Freedom Caucus if elected.

U.S. House Republican factions
Faction Primary victories in 2018 Seats held prior to primaries Performance
Affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus 8 6 +2
Not affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus[11] 10 12 -2

Media coverage

See also: Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018

The media highlighted various events that potentially impacted the outcome of the 2018 mid-term elections. This included major policy developments, the outcome of certain interim or special elections, and noteworthy national and international events. Such stories assessed the impact of these major events on the 2018 elections for the U.S. House or U.S. Senate, and sometimes, both.

Republican primaries

  • Jonathan Bernstein discussed the significance of Trump's endorsement in Republican primaries in a Bloomberg article (August 22, 2018):
"I’ve been impressed with Trump’s recent successes in primary endorsements. After the fiasco in the Alabama Senate special election, he’s been picking likely winners who then won, making Trump look good — and he’s restrained himself and stayed out of some contests in which the winner was difficult to determine in advance or where the Trumpiest candidate seemed unlikely to win. That streak ends in Wyoming."
"The first tangible consequence for Trump is that he’ll most likely have a Wyoming governor who resents the president’s attempt to defeat him."
"But the real danger here is that Republican politicians begin to believe that Trump isn’t a threat to them after all. My guess — and it’s only speculation — is that this has been true all along. While a presidential endorsement might move quite a few votes in low-interest primary elections because voters are looking for any kind of cue about who the acceptable candidate might be, it’s a lot harder for endorsements to move votes against an incumbent. Not impossible, but difficult."[12]


Presidential data

The following statistics were compiled using the Daily Kos' presidential results by congressional district data. These trends can be used as an early indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2018 elections.[13]

Cook Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

The chart above details the 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for each U.S. House district. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district."[14][15][16]

Race ratings

The following table compares the most recent race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections.

Targeted races

NRCC

Targets

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) released its initial list of targeted Democratic incumbents on February 8, 2017.[17]

Patriot Program

The NRCC released the initial members of the Patriot Program on February 15, 2017. The Patriot Program is designed to help raise money and assist vulnerable incumbents seeking re-election.[18]

Special elections

See also: Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)

Special elections made up the bulk of Ballotpedia's congressional election coverage in 2017. Special elections to Congress occur when a legislator resigns or is removed from office. Depending on the specific state laws governing vacancies, a state can either hold an election within the same calendar year, or wait until the next regularly scheduled election. Since 2016 was a presidential year, there were expected to be more special elections than normal for members of Congress chosen for cabinet positions.

The table below lists special elections to the 115th United States Congress.

District Prior Incumbent Primary Date General Election Candidates Election Date Winner Partisan Switch?
Michigan's 13th John Conyers Jr. August 7, 2018 Democratic Party Brenda Jones
Republican Party No Republican filed		 November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Brenda Jones No
New York's 25th Louise Slaughter - Democratic Party Joseph Morelle
Republican Party James Maxwell		 November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Joseph Morelle No
Pennsylvania's 7th Patrick Meehan - Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon
Republican Party Pearl Kim		 November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon Yes
Pennsylvania's 15th Charlie Dent - Democratic Party Susan Wild
Republican Party Marty Nothstein		 November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Susan Wild Yes
South Carolina's 5th Mick Mulvaney May 2, 2017 Democratic Party Archie Parnell
Republican Party Ralph Norman
Independent Five other candidates		 June 20, 2017 Republican Party Ralph Norman No
U.S. Senator from Alabama Jeff Sessions August 15, 2017 Republican Party Roy Moore
Democratic Party Doug Jones
Grey.png Arlester McBride		 December 12, 2017 Democratic Party Doug Jones Yes
Utah's 3rd Jason Chaffetz August 15, 2017 Republican Party John Curtis
Democratic Party Kathie Allen
Libertarian Party Joe Buchman
Independent_American_Party Jason Christensen
Independent Sean Whalen
Independent Jim Bennett
 November 7, 2017 Republican Party John Curtis No
Pennsylvania's 18th Tim Murphy N/A Democratic Party Conor Lamb
Republican Party Rick Saccone		 March 13, 2018 Democratic Party Conor Lamb Yes
Georgia's 6th Tom Price April 18, 2017[19] Democratic Party Jon Ossoff
Republican Party Karen Handel		 June 20, 2017[20] Republican Party Karen Handel No
Arizona's 8th Trent Franks February 27, 2018 Democratic Party Hiral Tipirneni
Republican Party Debbie Lesko		 April 24, 2018 Republican Party Debbie Lesko No
Montana's At-Large Ryan Zinke N/A Republican Party Greg Gianforte
Democratic Party Rob Quist
Libertarian Party Mark Wicks		 May 25, 2017 Republican Party Greg Gianforte No
U.S. Senator from Minnesota Al Franken August 14, 2018 Democratic Party Tina Smith
Republican Party Karin Housley
Grey.png Jerry Trooien
* Sarah Wellington		 November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Tina Smith No
U.S. Senator from Mississippi Thad Cochran June 5, 2018 Pending November 6, 2018 Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith No
Texas' 27th Blake Farenthold N/A Democratic Party Raul (Roy) Barrera
Democratic Party Eric Holguin
Democratic Party Mike Westergren
Republican Party Bech Bruun
Republican Party Michael Cloud
Republican Party Marty Perez
Libertarian Party Daniel Tinus
Grey.png Judith Cutright
Grey.png Chris Suprun		 June 30, 2018 Republican Party Michael Cloud No
Ohio's 12th Patrick Tiberi May 8, 2018 Democratic Party Danny O'Connor
Republican Party Troy Balderson
Green Party Joe Manchik
Grey.png Jonathan Veley		 August 7, 2018 Republican Party Troy Balderson No
California's 34th Xavier Becerra April 4, 2017 Democratic Party Robert Lee Ahn
Democratic Party Jimmy Gomez		 June 6, 2017 Democratic Party Jimmy Gomez No
Kansas' 4th Mike Pompeo N/A Republican Party Ron Estes
Democratic Party Jim Thompson
Libertarian Party Chris Rockhold		 April 11, 2017 Republican Party Ron Estes No


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ The New York Times, "House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control," accessed November 15, 2016
  2. ↑ One undecided 2018 race was decided in September 2019 when Dan Bishop (R) won the special election. The state board of elections called a new election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud in the 2018 race. Unofficial returns from the 2018 election showed Mark Harris (R) leading McCready, who was also the Democratic candidate in 2018, by 905 votes. Harris said he did not run again in 2019 due to health issues. Click here for more information on the aftermath of the 2018 election.
  3. ↑ House Freedom Fund, "Endorsements," accessed May 15, 2018
  4. ↑ McClatchy DC, "House Freedom Caucus looks to gain members as Texas GOP voters head for polls," March 5, 2018
  5. ↑ Facebook, "House Freedom Caucus," accessed May 29, 2018
  6. ↑ Pew Research Center, "What is the House Freedom Caucus, and who’s in it?" October 20, 2015
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 The Hill, "Freedom Caucus bruised but unbowed in GOP primary fights," May 22, 2018
  8. ↑ Politico, "Conservatives split off from Republican Study Committee," January 13, 2015
  9. ↑ The Hill, "McCarthy defeats Jordan for minority leader in 159-to-43 vote," November 14, 2018
  10. ↑ We chose to focus on open primaries in order to see how many new members the caucus could potentially add after the 2018 elections.
  11. ↑ This includes all seats not held by members of the Freedom Caucus prior to the 2018 elections, including those held by Democrats.
  12. ↑ Bloomberg, "Trump Endorsements No Longer Look Like a Golden Touch," August 22, 2018
  13. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed February 8, 2017
  14. ↑ Politico, "Charlie Cook's PVI," April 10, 2009
  15. ↑ RedState, "New Cook PVIs Show Big Opportunities for Conservatives in the House," October 11, 2012
  16. ↑ Swing State Project, "Just what is the Partisan Voter Index (PVI)?" November 16, 2008
  17. ↑ Politico, "House Republicans name Democratic targets for 2018," February 8, 2017
  18. ↑ The Washington Post, "Republicans believe these 10 House incumbents will face the toughest campaigns of 2018," February 15, 2017
  19. ↑ While technically a general election, the April 18 election was functionally a top-two primary because no candidate received the 50 percent of the vote required to win the race outright.
  20. ↑ June 20, 2017, runoff election between Republican Karen Handel and Democrat Jon Ossoff.
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