United States House election in Delaware, 2020 (September 15 Democratic primary)
- Primary date: Sept. 15
- Primary type: Closed
- Registration deadline(s): Aug. 22
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Early voting starts: N/A
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Sept. 15 (received)
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
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| Delaware's At-Large Congressional District |
|---|
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: July 14, 2020 |
| Primary: September 15, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Lisa Blunt Rochester (Democrat) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Delaware |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • At-large Delaware elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
The 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Delaware took place on November 3, 2020. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's one at-large congressional district. This page focuses on the Democratic primary that took place in Delaware on September 15, 2020.
Click here for more information about the Republican primary.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester, who was first elected in 2016.
A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Delaware utilizes a closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[1][2][3]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Delaware modified its primary election processes as follows:
- Election postponements: The presidential preference primary was postponed from April 28, 2020, to July 7.
- Voting procedures: Vote-by-mail applications sent to all registered voters in the primary election.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
At-large district
The Democratic primary election was canceled. Incumbent Lisa Blunt Rochester advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Delaware.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
One of three Delaware counties—33.33 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Kent County, Delaware | 4.87% | 4.94% | 9.81% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Delaware with 53.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 41.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Delaware voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 46.67 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Delaware voted Democratic all five times.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Delaware. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[4][5]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 28 out of 41 state House districts in Delaware with an average margin of victory of 35.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 27 out of 41 state House districts in Delaware with an average margin of victory of 31.7 points. Clinton won three districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 13 out of 41 state House districts in Delaware with an average margin of victory of 12.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 41 state House districts in Delaware with an average margin of victory of 22.3 points. Trump won one district controlled by a Democrat heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 90.63% | 8.63% | D+82 | 87.34% | 9.62% | D+77.7 | D |
| 2 | 92.21% | 7.06% | D+85.1 | 88.72% | 8.32% | D+80.4 | D |
| 3 | 88.46% | 10.52% | D+77.9 | 84.86% | 12.35% | D+72.5 | D |
| 4 | 59.01% | 39.33% | D+19.7 | 62.94% | 31.39% | D+31.6 | D |
| 5 | 83.11% | 15.90% | D+67.2 | 78.51% | 18.23% | D+60.3 | D |
| 6 | 60.77% | 37.50% | D+23.3 | 60.56% | 34.04% | D+26.5 | D |
| 7 | 64.21% | 34.08% | D+30.1 | 61.76% | 32.89% | D+28.9 | D |
| 8 | 60.00% | 38.72% | D+21.3 | 54.75% | 40.34% | D+14.4 | D |
| 9 | 51.62% | 47.03% | D+4.6 | 46.45% | 48.21% | R+1.8 | R |
| 10 | 60.49% | 37.91% | D+22.6 | 58.39% | 36.45% | D+21.9 | D |
| 11 | 44.38% | 53.62% | R+9.2 | 34.07% | 60.29% | R+26.2 | R |
| 12 | 48.50% | 50.01% | R+1.5 | 53.04% | 41.44% | D+11.6 | R |
| 13 | 69.88% | 28.51% | D+41.4 | 59.74% | 34.95% | D+24.8 | D |
| 14 | 50.16% | 48.86% | D+1.3 | 50.08% | 46.81% | D+3.3 | D |
| 15 | 66.88% | 31.72% | D+35.2 | 61.89% | 33.61% | D+28.3 | D |
| 16 | 86.44% | 12.71% | D+73.7 | 79.69% | 17.08% | D+62.6 | D |
| 17 | 75.35% | 23.44% | D+51.9 | 67.45% | 28.15% | D+39.3 | D |
| 18 | 73.77% | 24.71% | D+49.1 | 66.80% | 28.17% | D+38.6 | D |
| 19 | 63.86% | 34.20% | D+29.7 | 54.36% | 40.20% | D+14.2 | D |
| 20 | 46.68% | 52.12% | R+5.4 | 42.84% | 52.98% | R+10.1 | R |
| 21 | 58.87% | 39.52% | D+19.3 | 53.84% | 40.20% | D+13.6 | R |
| 22 | 50.65% | 47.97% | D+2.7 | 51.53% | 43.26% | D+8.3 | R |
| 23 | 59.53% | 38.25% | D+21.3 | 59.93% | 33.33% | D+26.6 | D |
| 24 | 67.87% | 30.39% | D+37.5 | 59.76% | 34.09% | D+25.7 | D |
| 25 | 63.13% | 34.55% | D+28.6 | 59.44% | 34.18% | D+25.3 | D |
| 26 | 73.18% | 25.66% | D+47.5 | 67.83% | 27.17% | D+40.7 | D |
| 27 | 61.16% | 37.36% | D+23.8 | 56.68% | 38.07% | D+18.6 | D |
| 28 | 61.47% | 37.05% | D+24.4 | 52.86% | 42.09% | D+10.8 | D |
| 29 | 52.73% | 46.05% | D+6.7 | 47.38% | 48.10% | R+0.7 | D |
| 30 | 38.81% | 59.30% | R+20.5 | 28.57% | 66.67% | R+38.1 | R |
| 31 | 63.67% | 35.03% | D+28.6 | 61.48% | 32.66% | D+28.8 | D |
| 32 | 63.41% | 35.03% | D+28.4 | 57.28% | 36.72% | D+20.6 | D |
| 33 | 45.67% | 53.08% | R+7.4 | 37.57% | 57.12% | R+19.5 | R |
| 34 | 46.85% | 51.75% | R+4.9 | 42.61% | 51.87% | R+9.3 | R |
| 35 | 39.90% | 58.62% | R+18.7 | 32.25% | 64.32% | R+32.1 | R |
| 36 | 43.06% | 55.73% | R+12.7 | 36.10% | 59.53% | R+23.4 | R |
| 37 | 46.44% | 52.42% | R+6 | 37.67% | 59.00% | R+21.3 | R |
| 38 | 36.85% | 62.07% | R+25.2 | 32.78% | 64.18% | R+31.4 | R |
| 39 | 41.34% | 57.27% | R+15.9 | 34.48% | 61.33% | R+26.9 | R |
| 40 | 37.36% | 61.31% | R+23.9 | 26.76% | 69.12% | R+42.4 | R |
| 41 | 42.12% | 56.63% | R+14.5 | 33.75% | 62.59% | R+28.8 | R |
| Total | 58.61% | 39.98% | D+18.6 | 53.35% | 41.92% | D+11.4 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is D+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Delaware's At-Large Congressional District the 154th most Democratic nationally.[6]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.93. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.93 points toward that party.[7]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | Democratic Party | $2,046,187 | $1,327,604 | $963,766 | As of December 31, 2020 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]
| Race ratings: Delaware's At-large Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
See also
- United States House election in Delaware, 2020 (September 15 Republican primary)
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020
- United States House election in Delaware (September 6, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House election in Delaware (September 6, 2018 Democratic primary)
Footnotes
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 22, 2024
- ↑ State of Delaware, "Primary Election," accessed July 22, 2024
- ↑ Delaware.gov, "TITLE 15 Elections, CHAPTER 49. Conduct of Election § 3110 Qualifications of voters," accessed July 22, 2024
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
