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United States House election in Montana, 2020 (June 2 Republican primary)

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Montana's At-Large Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 9, 2020
Primary: June 2, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Greg Gianforte (R)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Montana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Montana's At-Large Congressional District
U.S. Senate • At-large
Montana elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020


Matt Rosendale won the Republican primary for Montana's At-Large Congressional District on June 2, 2020, defeating five other candidates: Joe Dooling, John Evankovich, Debra Lamm, Mark McGinley, and Corey Stapleton. Rosendale received 48.3% of the vote followed by Stapleton with 33.2%. No other candidate received over 10% of the vote.[1] Rosendale advanced to the general election on November 3, 2020 where he faced Kathleen Williams (D). Incumbent Greg Gianforte (R) announced he would run for governor in 2020, leaving the district open.

In the 2018 general election, Gianforte (R) defeated Kathleen Williams (D) 50.9% to 46.2%, and he defeated Rob Quist (D) 50.0% to 44.4% in a 2017 special election. The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average.[2] Click here to learn more about what was at stake in the general election.

This page focuses on the Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Montana modified its primary election process as follows:

  • Voting procedures: Counties were authorized to conduct the primary election entirely by mail.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Matt Rosendale
Matt Rosendale
 
48.3
 
104,575
Image of Corey Stapleton
Corey Stapleton
 
33.2
 
71,902
Image of Debra Lamm
Debra Lamm
 
6.7
 
14,462
Image of Joe Dooling
Joe Dooling
 
6.3
 
13,726
Image of Mark McGinley
Mark McGinley Candidate Connection
 
3.6
 
7,818
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
John Evankovich
 
1.8
 
3,983

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 216,466
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[3] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Mark McGinley

Image of Mark McGinley

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "I grew up in Dillon, Montana the ninth of 12 children. I played sports and graduated in 1982. I moved to Helena and earned a BA in English Literature and History from Carroll College. After graduating from college, I enlisted with the Montana Army National Guard. I was sent to Officer Candidate School and commissioned as a Second Lieutenant in 1990. I taught at Broadwater County High School in Townsend. In 2003-2004 I was deployed for Operation Iraqi Freedom. I served as an Aviation Officer retiring in February 2019 as a Lieutenant Colonel. Following my retirement, I worked for the National Guard as the Suicide Prevention Program Manager. In October 2019 I accepted a position with Montana Youth Challenge in Dillon. My life has been devoted to public service. I want to serve Montana in the US Congress because I believe these experiences make me the best qualified candidate, a TRUE MONTANA REPRESENTATIVE. My mother used to tell us that we can disagree without being disagreeable. It is true as a family; it is true as a nation. I will serve in Congress an open mind and a passion for the issues."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

Education. Decreased federal over sight; increase local & state support.

Veteran and Military support

Montana values.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Montana At-large District in 2020.


Endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Republican primary endorsements
Endorsement Dooling Evankovich Lamm McGinley Rosendale Stapleton
Elected officials
President Donald Trump (R)[4] ✔
Organizations
Club for Growth PAC[5] ✔
U.S. Chamber of Commerce[6] ✔
House Freedom Fund[7] ✔


Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Matt Rosendale

"Shaking Up the System" - Rosendale campaign ad, released April 28, 2020
"Working for Montana" - Rosendale campaign ad, released June 17, 2019


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

If you are aware of polls conducted in this race, please email us.


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Joe Dooling Republican Party $120,806 $120,806 $0 As of December 31, 2020
John Evankovich Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Debra Lamm Republican Party $62,217 $61,913 $304 As of December 31, 2020
Mark McGinley Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Matt Rosendale Republican Party $4,034,800 $3,848,140 $262,839 As of December 31, 2020
Corey Stapleton Republican Party $219,454 $219,454 $0 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[8][9][10]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.


Primaries in Montana

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Montana utilizes an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[11][12]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

What was at stake in the general election

U.S. House elections were held on November 3, 2020, and coincided with the 2020 presidential election. All 435 House districts were up for election, and the results determined control of the U.S. House in the 117th Congress.

At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232-197 advantage over Republicans. There was one Libertarian member, and there were five vacancies. Republicans needed to gain a net 21 seats to win control of the House. Democrats needed to gain seats or lose fewer than 14 net seats to keep their majority.

In the 2018 midterm election, Democrats had a net gain of 40 seats, winning a 235-200 majority in the House. Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans had a 235-193 majority with seven vacancies.

In the 25 previous House elections that coincided with a presidential election, the president's party had gained House seats in 16 elections and lost seats in nine. In years where the president's party won districts, the average gain was 18. In years where the president's party lost districts, the average loss was 27. Click here for more information on presidential partisanship and down-ballot outcomes.


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[13]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[14][15][16]

Race ratings: Montana's At-large Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Montana's At-Large Congressional District the 128th most Republican nationally.[17]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[18]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 56 Montana counties—5.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Blaine County, Montana 2.46% 15.32% 19.24%
Hill County, Montana 17.18% 3.50% 12.21%
Roosevelt County, Montana 6.49% 15.58% 26.27%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Montana with 56.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 35.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, Montana voted Republican 65.6 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Montana voted Republican all five times.[19]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Montana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[20][21]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 34.7 points. Trump won 14 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for At-large District candidates in Montana in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Montana, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Montana At-large District Qualified party N/A N/A $1,740.00 Percentage of annual salary 3/9/2020 Source
Montana At-large District Unaffiliated 12,833 5% of total votes cast for successful candidate in the last general election N/A N/A 6/1/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: United States House of Representatives election in Montana, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Montana At-large District

Incumbent Greg Gianforte defeated Kathleen Williams and Elinor Swanson in the general election for U.S. House Montana At-large District on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Greg Gianforte
Greg Gianforte (R)
 
50.9
 
256,661
Image of Kathleen Williams
Kathleen Williams (D) Candidate Connection
 
46.2
 
233,284
Image of Elinor Swanson
Elinor Swanson (L)
 
2.9
 
14,476

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 504,421
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kathleen Williams
Kathleen Williams Candidate Connection
 
33.5
 
37,513
Image of John Heenan
John Heenan
 
31.7
 
35,480
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Grant Kier
 
24.2
 
27,025
Image of Lynda Moss
Lynda Moss
 
5.1
 
5,667
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
John Meyer Candidate Connection
 
3.3
 
3,740
Image of Jared Pettinato
Jared Pettinato
 
2.2
 
2,472

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 111,897
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District

Incumbent Greg Gianforte advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Greg Gianforte
Greg Gianforte
 
100.0
 
136,372

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 136,372
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2017

See also: Montana's At-Large Congressional District special election, 2017
U.S. House, Montana At-Large Special Election, 2017
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGreg Gianforte 50% 190,520
     Democratic Rob Quist 44.4% 169,214
     Libertarian Mark Wicks 5.7% 21,682
Total Votes 381,416
Source: Montana Secretary of State

The election was held to replace Ryan Zinke (R), who was confirmed as secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior on March 1, 2017.[22]

Republican Greg Gianforte defeated Democrat Rob Quist and Libertarian Mark Wicks, earning more than 50 percent of the vote. Gianforte was sworn in as a member of the United States House of Representatives on June 21, 2017.[23]

Primary elections were not held in the race. Instead, party leaders chose the nominees at conventions. Democrats selected musician Rob Quist at the party's convention on March 5, 2017, while Republicans nominated businessman Greg Gianforte at the party's convention on March 6, 2017. A third candidate, Libertarian Mark Wicks, was also on the ballot.[24][25][26][27]

Ballotpedia compiled the following resources to help voters better understand the policy positions of the candidates prior to the general election on May 25, 2017:

Although Montana's At-Large District seat was held by a Republican continuously from 1997, with former incumbent Ryan Zinke winning election in 2014 and 2016 by roughly 15 points, the race garnered significant national attention and fundraising. In the final week of the election alone, Quist announced that he had received $1 million, bringing his total campaign contributions to $6 million. The pro-Democrat House Majority PAC also spent $125,000 on ad buys for the election's final week. Outside organizations backing Gianforte like the Congressional Leadership Fund have spent $7 million on ad buys—approximately $4 million more than Democratic outside groups.[28][29]

On May 24, 2017, the eve of the election, Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault after he allegedly slammed a reporter to the ground and punched him. The Gianforte campaign refuted the reporter's account in a statement.[30][31]

State profile

See also: Montana and Montana elections, 2020
USA Montana location map.svg

Partisan data

The information in this section was current as of April 30, 2020.

Presidential voting pattern

  • Montana voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Montana Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Fifteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R
Senate D D D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D R R R R R R R R R R R R S S R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Montana quick stats
More Montana coverage on Ballotpedia:


Demographic data for Montana
 MontanaU.S.
Total population:1,032,073316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):145,5463,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:89.2%73.6%
Black/African American:0.5%12.6%
Asian:0.7%5.1%
Native American:6.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:92.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:29.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,169$53,889
Persons below poverty level:17%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Montana.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ The New York Times, "Montana Primary Election Results: At-Large Congressional District," accessed June 9, 2020
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  4. ↑ NBC Montana, "President Trump endorses Rosendale for US House seat," February 12, 2020
  5. ↑ The Club for Growth website, "Club for Growth PAC Endorses Matt Rosendale (MT-AL) for U.S. House of Representatives," June 17, 2019
  6. ↑ House Freedom Fund website, "MT-AL: Support Matt Rosendale," July 22, 2019
  7. ↑ House Freedom Fund website, "MT-AL: Support Matt Rosendale," July 22, 2019
  8. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  9. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  10. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  11. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed April 19, 2023
  12. ↑ Christi Jacobsen Montana Secretary of State,"Frequently Asked Questions," accessed April 19, 2023
  13. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  15. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  16. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  17. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  18. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  19. ↑ 270towin.com, "Montana," accessed June 29, 2017
  20. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  21. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  22. ↑ The Washington Post, "Trump taps Montana congressman Ryan Zinke as interior secretary," December 13, 2016
  23. ↑ The Billings Gazette, "Gianforte set to take oath as Montana's next congressman," June 15, 2017
  24. ↑ Billings Gazette, "Democrats, Republicans plan for special election to replace Zinke," December 15, 2016
  25. ↑ KTVH, "Bullock sets soonest possible date for special election," March 1, 2017
  26. ↑ Billings Gazette, "Montana Democrats pick musician Rob Quist to run for U.S. House," March 5, 2017
  27. ↑ Billings Gazette, "Greg Gianforte wins Republican nomination for Montana's U.S. House election," March 6, 2017
  28. ↑ Politico, "Republicans: Montana special election 'closer than it should be,'" May 24, 2017
  29. ↑ The Hill, "GOP, Dems put more money into Montana special election," May 3, 2017
  30. ↑ KULR, "U.S. House candidate Greg Gianforte charged with misdemeanor assault," May 25, 2017
  31. ↑ KTVQ, "Greg Gianforte accused of body slamming reporter," May 24, 2017
  32. ↑ Montana Secretary of State, "2016 Candidate Filing List: Non-Legislative," accessed March 15, 2016
  33. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013


Montana's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Steve Daines (R)
Tim Sheehy (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Republican Party (4)


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