United States House election in Montana (June 5, 2018 Democratic primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9[2]
- Early voting: Oct. 9 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID required
- Poll times: Polling places open between 7:00 a.m. and 12:00 p.m. and close at 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2017
|
| Montana's At-Large Congressional District |
|---|
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 12, 2018 |
| Primary: June 5, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Greg Gianforte (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Montana |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Likely Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • At-large Montana elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
A Democratic Party primary election took place on June 5, 2018, in Montana to determine which Democrat would run in the state's November 6, 2018, general election.
This page focuses on the Democratic primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here.
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Candidates and election results
The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District on June 5, 2018.
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Kathleen Williams ![]() | 33.5 | 37,513 | |
| John Heenan | 31.7 | 35,480 | ||
| Grant Kier | 24.2 | 27,025 | ||
| Lynda Moss | 5.1 | 5,667 | ||
John Meyer ![]() | 3.3 | 3,740 | ||
| Jared Pettinato | 2.2 | 2,472 | ||
| Total votes: 111,897 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Montana's At-Large Congressional District the 128th most Republican nationally.[3]
Campaign finance
The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[4]
Democrats
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Three of 56 Montana counties—5.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Blaine County, Montana | 2.46% | 15.32% | 19.24% | ||||
| Hill County, Montana | 17.18% | 3.50% | 12.21% | ||||
| Roosevelt County, Montana | 6.49% | 15.58% | 26.27% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Montana with 56.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 35.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, Montana voted Republican 65.6 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Montana voted Republican all five times.[5]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Montana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 34.7 points. Trump won 14 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 31.49% | 65.40% | R+33.9 | 24.56% | 69.61% | R+45 | R |
| 2 | 26.19% | 70.62% | R+44.4 | 19.77% | 74.94% | R+55.2 | R |
| 3 | 35.65% | 60.43% | R+24.8 | 30.90% | 61.30% | R+30.4 | D |
| 4 | 24.98% | 72.60% | R+47.6 | 20.50% | 73.71% | R+53.2 | R |
| 5 | 49.18% | 47.36% | D+1.8 | 48.70% | 43.57% | D+5.1 | D |
| 6 | 29.95% | 67.81% | R+37.9 | 28.87% | 65.58% | R+36.7 | R |
| 7 | 40.61% | 55.52% | R+14.9 | 34.89% | 56.46% | R+21.6 | R |
| 8 | 28.89% | 68.40% | R+39.5 | 25.31% | 68.36% | R+43 | R |
| 9 | 27.76% | 69.09% | R+41.3 | 23.24% | 70.16% | R+46.9 | R |
| 10 | 28.59% | 69.10% | R+40.5 | 26.23% | 69.31% | R+43.1 | R |
| 11 | 25.25% | 72.18% | R+46.9 | 21.87% | 72.64% | R+50.8 | R |
| 12 | 42.13% | 55.16% | R+13 | 36.12% | 58.17% | R+22 | R |
| 13 | 26.14% | 70.71% | R+44.6 | 18.54% | 76.04% | R+57.5 | R |
| 14 | 32.60% | 63.22% | R+30.6 | 24.35% | 67.81% | R+43.5 | R |
| 15 | 58.01% | 39.28% | D+18.7 | 55.71% | 37.44% | D+18.3 | D |
| 16 | 71.07% | 26.84% | D+44.2 | 65.23% | 28.59% | D+36.6 | D |
| 17 | 30.65% | 66.42% | R+35.8 | 22.87% | 70.58% | R+47.7 | R |
| 18 | 29.49% | 66.80% | R+37.3 | 21.44% | 71.56% | R+50.1 | R |
| 19 | 34.08% | 63.36% | R+29.3 | 25.01% | 68.81% | R+43.8 | R |
| 20 | 36.11% | 62.06% | R+25.9 | 32.46% | 62.16% | R+29.7 | R |
| 21 | 46.91% | 50.23% | R+3.3 | 36.35% | 56.76% | R+20.4 | D |
| 22 | 47.47% | 48.93% | R+1.5 | 36.16% | 54.87% | R+18.7 | R |
| 23 | 49.89% | 47.11% | D+2.8 | 42.34% | 49.63% | R+7.3 | D |
| 24 | 47.86% | 49.59% | R+1.7 | 40.35% | 51.07% | R+10.7 | D |
| 25 | 50.16% | 46.46% | D+3.7 | 39.34% | 52.01% | R+12.7 | R |
| 26 | 47.24% | 49.05% | R+1.8 | 38.78% | 51.69% | R+12.9 | D |
| 27 | 31.45% | 65.37% | R+33.9 | 24.74% | 68.78% | R+44 | R |
| 28 | 48.35% | 47.62% | D+0.7 | 35.81% | 54.70% | R+18.9 | D |
| 29 | 27.54% | 69.57% | R+42 | 20.97% | 72.91% | R+51.9 | R |
| 30 | 26.49% | 70.76% | R+44.3 | 18.35% | 74.80% | R+56.5 | R |
| 31 | 62.74% | 35.08% | D+27.7 | 49.74% | 41.79% | D+7.9 | D |
| 32 | 62.84% | 35.17% | D+27.7 | 51.75% | 41.33% | D+10.4 | D |
| 33 | 31.92% | 64.62% | R+32.7 | 20.69% | 71.73% | R+51 | R |
| 34 | 30.36% | 66.63% | R+36.3 | 20.38% | 73.24% | R+52.9 | R |
| 35 | 21.57% | 75.57% | R+54 | 13.84% | 80.63% | R+66.8 | R |
| 36 | 26.51% | 69.46% | R+42.9 | 17.30% | 77.71% | R+60.4 | R |
| 37 | 17.49% | 79.95% | R+62.5 | 11.75% | 84.38% | R+72.6 | R |
| 38 | 37.31% | 59.77% | R+22.5 | 24.89% | 67.53% | R+42.6 | R |
| 39 | 27.29% | 69.23% | R+41.9 | 15.87% | 78.77% | R+62.9 | R |
| 40 | 22.65% | 73.92% | R+51.3 | 16.45% | 78.01% | R+61.6 | R |
| 41 | 54.68% | 43.62% | D+11.1 | 42.37% | 52.19% | R+9.8 | D |
| 42 | 58.60% | 39.41% | D+19.2 | 47.51% | 45.39% | D+2.1 | D |
| 43 | 35.34% | 61.61% | R+26.3 | 26.74% | 65.15% | R+38.4 | R |
| 44 | 37.95% | 59.42% | R+21.5 | 30.87% | 59.71% | R+28.8 | R |
| 45 | 33.16% | 64.67% | R+31.5 | 29.98% | 61.13% | R+31.2 | R |
| 46 | 35.28% | 63.06% | R+27.8 | 36.58% | 57.00% | R+20.4 | R |
| 47 | 48.01% | 48.86% | R+0.8 | 47.76% | 44.03% | D+3.7 | D |
| 48 | 46.60% | 50.72% | R+4.1 | 43.66% | 47.69% | R+4 | D |
| 49 | 51.94% | 43.75% | D+8.2 | 44.93% | 43.99% | D+0.9 | D |
| 50 | 46.96% | 49.13% | R+2.2 | 38.01% | 51.03% | R+13 | D |
| 51 | 43.83% | 53.14% | R+9.3 | 35.99% | 54.64% | R+18.6 | R |
| 52 | 45.95% | 50.47% | R+4.5 | 36.84% | 54.25% | R+17.4 | R |
| 53 | 26.88% | 71.64% | R+44.8 | 24.59% | 69.45% | R+44.9 | R |
| 54 | 34.72% | 63.36% | R+28.6 | 31.02% | 61.86% | R+30.8 | R |
| 55 | 38.15% | 58.52% | R+20.4 | 26.81% | 65.43% | R+38.6 | R |
| 56 | 36.68% | 60.59% | R+23.9 | 26.13% | 67.22% | R+41.1 | R |
| 57 | 26.02% | 71.51% | R+45.5 | 18.26% | 75.81% | R+57.5 | R |
| 58 | 36.71% | 60.43% | R+23.7 | 30.64% | 62.81% | R+32.2 | R |
| 59 | 31.67% | 65.41% | R+33.7 | 30.10% | 63.92% | R+33.8 | R |
| 60 | 49.22% | 47.75% | D+1.5 | 42.90% | 48.10% | R+5.2 | D |
| 61 | 52.13% | 45.30% | D+6.8 | 55.16% | 37.34% | D+17.8 | D |
| 62 | 57.33% | 39.68% | D+17.7 | 62.26% | 28.33% | D+33.9 | D |
| 63 | 55.23% | 40.35% | D+14.9 | 49.37% | 36.73% | D+12.6 | D |
| 64 | 40.23% | 56.95% | R+16.7 | 38.79% | 52.50% | R+13.7 | R |
| 65 | 51.99% | 44.48% | D+7.5 | 52.43% | 36.25% | D+16.2 | R |
| 66 | 59.07% | 37.20% | D+21.9 | 60.50% | 27.72% | D+32.8 | D |
| 67 | 36.06% | 60.39% | R+24.3 | 31.16% | 58.18% | R+27 | R |
| 68 | 29.86% | 66.53% | R+36.7 | 26.12% | 64.60% | R+38.5 | R |
| 69 | 27.48% | 69.83% | R+42.3 | 23.90% | 68.84% | R+44.9 | R |
| 70 | 29.72% | 67.70% | R+38 | 23.68% | 69.44% | R+45.8 | R |
| 71 | 30.43% | 67.06% | R+36.6 | 25.87% | 68.31% | R+42.4 | R |
| 72 | 30.12% | 66.71% | R+36.6 | 24.63% | 68.26% | R+43.6 | R |
| 73 | 67.29% | 29.51% | D+37.8 | 51.69% | 39.47% | D+12.2 | D |
| 74 | 67.84% | 28.48% | D+39.4 | 54.64% | 35.06% | D+19.6 | D |
| 75 | 36.01% | 61.13% | R+25.1 | 31.30% | 60.96% | R+29.7 | R |
| 76 | 62.60% | 35.45% | D+27.1 | 54.57% | 37.65% | D+16.9 | D |
| 77 | 54.71% | 41.78% | D+12.9 | 42.42% | 49.42% | R+7 | D |
| 78 | 49.90% | 46.76% | D+3.1 | 34.39% | 56.64% | R+22.3 | D |
| 79 | 52.38% | 45.20% | D+7.2 | 51.09% | 40.64% | D+10.5 | D |
| 80 | 29.81% | 67.67% | R+37.9 | 23.46% | 70.02% | R+46.6 | R |
| 81 | 53.84% | 43.72% | D+10.1 | 46.71% | 44.07% | D+2.6 | D |
| 82 | 50.97% | 46.39% | D+4.6 | 46.83% | 44.43% | D+2.4 | D |
| 83 | 51.40% | 45.43% | D+6 | 48.20% | 43.23% | D+5 | D |
| 84 | 47.66% | 49.40% | R+1.7 | 43.56% | 46.97% | R+3.4 | D |
| 85 | 28.10% | 69.34% | R+41.2 | 23.44% | 71.16% | R+47.7 | R |
| 86 | 38.39% | 58.67% | R+20.3 | 33.89% | 59.62% | R+25.7 | R |
| 87 | 28.26% | 68.87% | R+40.6 | 24.22% | 70.13% | R+45.9 | R |
| 88 | 36.82% | 60.50% | R+23.7 | 30.21% | 63.77% | R+33.6 | R |
| 89 | 55.35% | 42.16% | D+13.2 | 53.30% | 37.59% | D+15.7 | D |
| 90 | 62.36% | 35.39% | D+27 | 60.12% | 31.87% | D+28.3 | D |
| 91 | 74.07% | 23.34% | D+50.7 | 74.47% | 17.31% | D+57.2 | D |
| 92 | 44.75% | 51.56% | R+6.8 | 35.48% | 55.99% | R+20.5 | R |
| 93 | 45.74% | 51.67% | R+5.9 | 36.57% | 57.09% | R+20.5 | D |
| 94 | 52.31% | 44.47% | D+7.8 | 47.39% | 44.39% | D+3 | D |
| 95 | 67.27% | 28.91% | D+38.4 | 63.09% | 24.62% | D+38.5 | D |
| 96 | 45.17% | 51.93% | R+6.8 | 40.48% | 51.14% | R+10.7 | R |
| 97 | 42.65% | 54.90% | R+12.3 | 38.02% | 54.75% | R+16.7 | R |
| 98 | 55.62% | 40.95% | D+14.7 | 48.67% | 42.15% | D+6.5 | D |
| 99 | 53.76% | 43.36% | D+10.4 | 51.66% | 39.94% | D+11.7 | D |
| 100 | 74.33% | 22.27% | D+52.1 | 71.30% | 18.23% | D+53.1 | D |
| Total | 41.71% | 55.36% | R+13.7 | 35.94% | 56.47% | R+20.5 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Montana heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Republicans and Democrats each held one U.S. Senate seat.
- Republicans held Montana's At-Large Congressional District.
State executives
- As of September 2018, Republicans held six of 11 state executive positions, Democrats held two, and the remaining positions were officially nonpartisan.
- The governor of Montana was Democrat Steve Bullock. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 3, 2020.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Montana State Legislature. They had a 59-41 majority in the state House and a 32-18 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Montana was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Steve Bullock (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Montana elections, 2018
Montana held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seat
- One U.S. House seats
- One state executive position
- 25 of 50 state Senate seats
- 100 state House seats
Demographics
| Demographic data for Montana | ||
|---|---|---|
| Montana | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 1,032,073 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 145,546 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 89.2% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 0.5% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 0.7% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 6.5% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.5% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 3.3% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 92.8% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 29.5% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $47,169 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 17% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Montana. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, Montana's three largest cities were Billings (pop. est. 109,642), Missoula (pop. est. 73,340), and Great Falls (pop. est. 58,876).[8][9]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Montana from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Montana Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Montana every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Montana 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | 55.6% | 35.4% | 20.2% | ||
| 2012 | 55.3% | 41.7% | 13.6% | ||
| 2008 | 49.5% | 47.2% | 2.3% | ||
| 2004 | 59.1% | 38.6% | 20.5% | ||
| 2000 | 58.4% | 33.4% | 25.0% | ||
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Montana from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Montana 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | 57.9% | 40.0% | 17.9% | ||
| 2012 | 48.6% | 44.6% | 4.0% | ||
| 2008 | 72.9% | 27.1% | 45.8% | ||
| 2006 | 49.2% | 48.3% | 0.9% | ||
| 2002 | 62.7% | 31.7% | 31.0% | ||
| 2000 | 50.6% | 47.2% | 3.4% | ||
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Montana.
| Election results (Governor), Montana 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | 50.2% | 46.4% | 3.8% | ||
| 2012 | 48.9% | 47.3% | 1.6% | ||
| 2008 | 65.5% | 32.5% | 33.0% | ||
| 2004 | 50.4% | 46.0% | 4.4% | ||
| 2000 | 51.0% | 47.1% | 3.9% | ||
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Montana in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Montana Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas • Fifteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | S | S | R | R | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States House of Representatives election in Montana, 2018
- United States House election in Montana (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ If one missed the Oct. 9 deadline, he or she could have still voted in the election by registering in person at the county election office. Late registration was available until the close of polls on Election Day.
- ↑ If one missed the Oct. 9 deadline, he or she could have still voted in the election by registering in person at the county election office. Late registration was available until the close of polls on Election Day.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Montana," accessed June 29, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Montana Demographics, "Montana Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Montana," accessed September 4, 2018
