United States House election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: N/A (no formal registration process)
- Early voting: Sept. 27 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 5
- Online registration: N/A
- Same-day registration: N/A
- Voter ID: ID required
- Poll times: Varies according to the size of the precinct
2020 →
← 2016
|
| North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: April 9, 2018 |
| Primary: June 12, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Kevin Cramer (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: Open between 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.; close between 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. Voting in North Dakota |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • At-large North Dakota elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
A Republican Party primary election took place on June 12, 2018, in North Dakota to determine which Republican would run in the state's November 6, 2018, general election.
This page focuses on the Republican primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here.
Candidates and election results
Kelly Armstrong defeated Tom Campbell, Tiffany Abentroth, and Paul Schaffner in the Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on June 12, 2018.
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Kelly Armstrong | 56.3 | 37,364 |
 | Tom Campbell | 26.9 | 17,861 | |
 | Tiffany Abentroth | 8.9 | 5,921 | |
| Paul Schaffner | 7.9 | 5,243 | ||
| Total votes: 66,389 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+16, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 16 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District the 70th most Republican nationally.[1]
Endorsements
Campaign finance
The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[3]
Republicans
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Four of 53 North Dakota counties—7.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Benson County, North Dakota | 4.33% | 17.01% | 33.53% | ||||
| Ransom County, North Dakota | 15.77% | 13.77% | 15.33% | ||||
| Sargent County, North Dakota | 19.73% | 9.77% | 17.49% | ||||
| Steele County, North Dakota | 17.72% | 1.92% | 20.35% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Dakota with 63 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican 81.25 percent of the time and Democratic 15.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican all five times.[4]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Dakota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[5][6]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won eight out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won four out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 25.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 43 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 38.9 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 25.25% | 72.44% | R+47.2 | 15.70% | 77.60% | R+61.9 | R |
| 2 | 23.50% | 74.04% | R+50.5 | 12.81% | 81.65% | R+68.8 | R |
| 3 | 34.53% | 62.62% | R+28.1 | 20.28% | 69.79% | R+49.5 | R |
| 4 | 44.65% | 53.30% | R+8.7 | 31.23% | 62.19% | R+31 | R |
| 5 | 35.04% | 62.99% | R+27.9 | 25.32% | 65.85% | R+40.5 | R |
| 6 | 33.60% | 64.02% | R+30.4 | 19.03% | 73.86% | R+54.8 | R |
| 7 | 28.93% | 68.80% | R+39.9 | 18.95% | 74.05% | R+55.1 | R |
| 8 | 28.39% | 69.14% | R+40.7 | 16.17% | 78.39% | R+62.2 | R |
| 9 | 73.98% | 24.10% | D+49.9 | 57.16% | 33.14% | D+24 | D |
| 10 | 40.63% | 56.80% | R+16.2 | 23.79% | 68.63% | R+44.8 | R |
| 11 | 54.52% | 42.92% | D+11.6 | 47.09% | 42.67% | D+4.4 | D |
| 12 | 40.44% | 56.89% | R+16.5 | 28.16% | 63.38% | R+35.2 | R |
| 13 | 45.20% | 52.76% | R+7.6 | 36.60% | 54.96% | R+18.4 | R |
| 14 | 30.67% | 67.01% | R+36.3 | 19.04% | 74.40% | R+55.4 | R |
| 15 | 43.56% | 53.45% | R+9.9 | 28.47% | 62.14% | R+33.7 | R |
| 16 | 50.78% | 45.95% | D+4.8 | 40.22% | 49.41% | R+9.2 | R |
| 17 | 43.28% | 54.92% | R+11.6 | 36.93% | 56.05% | R+19.1 | R |
| 18 | 55.25% | 41.99% | D+13.3 | 39.68% | 50.13% | R+10.4 | D |
| 19 | 38.30% | 59.10% | R+20.8 | 23.98% | 68.23% | R+44.3 | R |
| 20 | 43.84% | 53.94% | R+10.1 | 28.99% | 61.73% | R+32.7 | D |
| 21 | 58.10% | 37.73% | D+20.4 | 49.24% | 38.72% | D+10.5 | D |
| 22 | 39.93% | 57.89% | R+18 | 30.35% | 60.24% | R+29.9 | R |
| 23 | 48.91% | 48.94% | R+0 | 34.28% | 57.80% | R+23.5 | R |
| 24 | 45.51% | 52.18% | R+6.7 | 30.90% | 59.19% | R+28.3 | R |
| 25 | 41.58% | 56.58% | R+15 | 27.20% | 64.26% | R+37.1 | D |
| 26 | 47.28% | 50.58% | R+3.3 | 30.77% | 59.94% | R+29.2 | R |
| 27 | 43.92% | 53.66% | R+9.7 | 38.23% | 51.62% | R+13.4 | R |
| 28 | 25.69% | 71.88% | R+46.2 | 14.18% | 80.31% | R+66.1 | R |
| 29 | 34.32% | 63.27% | R+28.9 | 20.98% | 72.76% | R+51.8 | R |
| 30 | 34.36% | 63.38% | R+29 | 23.14% | 69.35% | R+46.2 | R |
| 31 | 37.63% | 60.06% | R+22.4 | 24.35% | 68.30% | R+44 | R |
| 32 | 37.65% | 59.45% | R+21.8 | 26.56% | 64.60% | R+38 | R |
| 33 | 26.89% | 70.44% | R+43.6 | 13.37% | 81.32% | R+68 | R |
| 34 | 36.69% | 60.28% | R+23.6 | 23.55% | 67.65% | R+44.1 | R |
| 35 | 37.72% | 59.56% | R+21.8 | 29.88% | 60.59% | R+30.7 | R |
| 36 | 21.01% | 77.00% | R+56 | 11.33% | 83.81% | R+72.5 | R |
| 37 | 26.51% | 71.55% | R+45 | 16.67% | 77.64% | R+61 | R |
| 38 | 30.15% | 67.72% | R+37.6 | 19.59% | 72.28% | R+52.7 | R |
| 39 | 19.92% | 78.02% | R+58.1 | 11.09% | 83.49% | R+72.4 | R |
| 40 | 35.42% | 61.14% | R+25.7 | 25.35% | 63.05% | R+37.7 | R |
| 41 | 42.55% | 55.38% | R+12.8 | 39.53% | 51.32% | R+11.8 | R |
| 42 | 49.85% | 46.46% | D+3.4 | 39.58% | 49.50% | R+9.9 | R |
| 43 | 49.24% | 48.50% | D+0.7 | 41.62% | 50.35% | R+8.7 | R |
| 44 | 52.26% | 44.96% | D+7.3 | 46.38% | 42.62% | D+3.8 | D |
| 45 | 44.75% | 52.72% | R+8 | 35.95% | 54.29% | R+18.3 | R |
| 46 | 45.62% | 52.35% | R+6.7 | 41.96% | 49.55% | R+7.6 | R |
| 47 | 30.74% | 67.39% | R+36.7 | 25.59% | 67.63% | R+42 | R |
| Total | 38.92% | 58.66% | R+19.7 | 27.74% | 64.15% | R+36.4 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in North Dakota heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in North Dakota.
- Republicans held the state's at-large U.S. House seat.
State executives
- As of September 2018, Republicans held nine of 10 state executive positions, with the tenth held by a nonpartisan official.
- The governor of North Dakota was Republican Doug Burgum. Burgum won election in 2016.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the North Dakota State Legislature. They had a 80-13 majority in the state House and a 38-9 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- North Dakota was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: North Dakota elections, 2018
North Dakota held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One seat in the U.S. Senate
- One seat in the U.S. House
- Five state executive seats
- 24 out of 47 seats in the state Senate
- 48 out of 94 seats in the state House
- One of five seats on the state Supreme Court
Demographics
| Demographic data for North Dakota | ||
|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 756,835 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 69,001 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 88.7% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 1.6% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.2% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 5.3% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 2.9% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 91.7% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.7% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $57,181 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 12.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in North Dakota. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, North Dakota's three largest cities were Fargo (pop. est. 120,000), Bismarck (pop. est. 73,000), and Grand Forks (pop. est. 57,000).[7]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the North Dakota Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in North Dakota every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
63.0% |  Hillary Clinton |
27.2% | 35.8% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
58.3% | Barack Obama |
38.7% | 19.6% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
53.3% | Barack Obama |
44.6% | 8.7% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
62.9% | John Kerry |
35.5% | 27.4% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
60.7% | Al Gore |
33.1% | 27.6% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | John Hoeven |
78.5% | Eliot Glassheim |
17.0% | 61.5% |
| 2012 | Heidi Heitkamp |
50.2% | Rick Berg |
49.3% | 0.9% |
| 2010 | John Hoeven |
76.1% | Tracy Potter |
22.2% | 53.9% |
| 2006 | Kent Conrad |
68.8% | Dwight Grotberg |
29.5% | 39.3% |
| 2004 | Byron Dorgan |
68.3% | Mike Liffrig |
31.7% | 36.6% |
| 2000 | Kent Conrad |
61.4% | Duane Sand |
38.6% | 22.8% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in North Dakota.
| Election results (Governor), North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Doug Burgum |
76.5% | Marvin Nelson |
19.4% | 57.1% |
| 2012 | Jack Dalrymple |
63.1% | Ryan Taylor |
34.3% | 28.8% |
| 2008 | John Hoeven |
74.4% | Tim Mathern |
23.5% | 50.9% |
| 2004 | John Hoeven |
71.3% | Joe Satrom |
27.4% | 43.9% |
| 2000 | John Hoeven |
55.0% | Heidi Heitkamp |
45.0% | 10.0% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent North Dakota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 1 |
100.0% | 0 |
0.0% | R+1 |
| 2014 | 1 |
100.0% | 0 |
0.0% | R+1 |
| 2012 | 1 |
100.0% | 0 |
0.0% | R+1 |
| 2010 | 1 |
100.0% | 0 |
0.0% | R+1 |
| 2008 | 0 |
0.0% | 1 |
100.0% | D+1 |
| 2006 | 0 |
0.0% | 1 |
100.0% | D+1 |
| 2004 | 0 |
0.0% | 1 |
100.0% | D+1 |
| 2002 | 0 |
0.0% | 1 |
100.0% | D+1 |
| 2000 | 0 |
0.0% | 1 |
100.0% | D+1 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
North Dakota Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Thirty-one years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota, 2018
- United States House election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ Grand Forks Herald, "ND Republicans endorse Kelly Armstrong for Congress," April 7, 2018
- ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
- ↑ 270towin.com, "North Dakota," accessed June 29, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ North Dakota Demographics by Cubit, "North Dakota Cities by Population," accessed September 7, 2018
