United States House of Representatives elections, 2016

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
← 2014

CongressLogo.png

2016 U.S. House Elections
Election Date
November 8, 2016
U.S. Senate Elections by State
Battlegrounds • Primaries
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maryland • Missouri • Nevada • New Hampshire • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • South Carolina • South Dakota • Utah • Vermont • Washington • Wisconsin
U.S. House Elections by State
Battlegrounds • Primaries
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Elections to the U.S. House will be held on November 8, 2016. All 435 seats will be up for election. Additionally, there will be special elections to fill vacancies that occur in the 114th United States Congress.

In order to flip control of the chamber, the Democratic Party needs to pick up 30 seats, a difficult task. Presidential elections tend to result in smaller changes to House partisan balance than midterms. The last two presidential elections saw gains of only eight and 24 seats for Democrats.[1][2] While it is unlikely that the Democratic Party will be able to gain control of the chamber in this election cycle, Democrats can still hope to reduce the majority that the Republican Party holds. Republicans currently hold their largest majority in the U.S. House since 1928.[3]

The coinciding presidential election is likely to have a significant impact on the elections for U.S. House. Presidential election years lead to increased voter interest and turnout, which has an effect all the way down the ballot. In the past decade, presidential elections have led to Democratic gains in the U.S. House, while midterms have helped Republicans. If the trend holds, Democrats should look to pick up some seats in November.[3]

Speaker of the House John Boehner resigned in October 2015.[4] Two other Republicans already resigned from their seats and another died in office. Michael Grimm represented New York's 11th Congressional District but resigned after he pleaded guilty to felony tax evasion. Aaron Schock resigned on March 31, 2015, following inquiries into misuse of campaign and government funds. He represented Illinois' 18th Congressional District.[5] Alan Nunnelee represented Mississippi's 1st Congressional District and died on February 6, 2015, following his battle with brain cancer.[6] Democrats have lost two members as well. Chaka Fattah of Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District resigned following a racketeering conviction, while Mark Takai (HI-01) died in July 2016 following a battle with pancreatic cancer.[7][8] Special elections will be held to replace any representatives who leave office early.

Partisan breakdown

The Republican Party currently has the majority in the U.S. House. Republicans hold 247 seats compared to Democrats' 187 seats. The Republican Party increased its hold on the House in the 2014 midterms when it picked up 15 seats while only losing two. In order to gain control of the House, Democrats would need to gain 30 seats in 2016.

U.S. House Partisan Breakdown
Party As of August 2016 After the 2016 Election
     Democratic Party 186 Pending
     Republican Party 247 Pending
     Vacant 2
Total 435 435


Retiring incumbents

The following members of the U.S. House have decided to retire rather than seek re-election in 2016.

  • Democratic Party 9 Democrats
  • Republican Party 20 Republicans
Name:Party:Current office:
Ander CrenshawEnds.png Republican Florida, District 4
Candice MillerEnds.png Republican Michigan, District 10
Charles B. RangelElectiondot.png Democratic New York, District 13
Chris GibsonEnds.png Republican New York, District 19
Curt ClawsonEnds.png Republican Florida, District 19
Cynthia LummisEnds.png Republican Wyoming, At-Large, District
Dan BenishekEnds.png Republican Michigan, District 1
Ed WhitfieldEnds.png Republican Kentucky, District 1
Gwen GrahamElectiondot.png Democratic Florida, District 2
Janice HahnElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 44
Jeff MillerEnds.png Republican Florida, District 1
Jim McDermottElectiondot.png Democratic Washington, District 7
John KlineEnds.png Republican Minnesota, District 2
Joseph R. PittsEnds.png Republican Pennsylvania, District 16
Lois CappsElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 24
Lynn A. WestmorelandEnds.png Republican Georgia, District 3
Mark TakaiElectiondot.png Democratic Hawaii, District 1
Matt SalmonEnds.png Republican Arizona, District 5
Michael G. FitzpatrickEnds.png Republican Pennsylvania, District 8
Randy NeugebauerEnds.png Republican Texas, District 19
Reid RibbleEnds.png Republican Wisconsin, District 8
Richard L. HannaEnds.png Republican New York, District 22
Richard B. NugentEnds.png Republican Florida, District 11
Robert HurtEnds.png Republican Virginia, District 5
Rubén HinojosaElectiondot.png Democratic Texas, District 15
Sam FarrElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 20
Scott RigellEnds.png Republican Virginia, District 2
Stephen Lee FincherEnds.png Republican Tennessee, District 8
Steve IsraelElectiondot.png Democratic New York, District 3

Incumbents seeking higher office

The following incumbents are not seeking re-election to the U.S. House. They are instead seeking election to another office in 2016.

U.S. Senate

  • Democratic Party 7 Democrats
  • Republican Party 3 Republicans
Name:Party:Current office:
Alan GraysonElectiondot.png Democratic Florida, District 9
Ann KirkpatrickElectiondot.png Democratic Arizona, District 1
Chris Van HollenElectiondot.png Democratic U.S. House, Maryland, District 8
Donna EdwardsElectiondot.png Democratic Maryland, District 4
Joe HeckEnds.png Republican Nevada, District 3
Loretta SanchezElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 46
Marlin A. StutzmanEnds.png Republican Indiana, District 3
Patrick MurphyElectiondot.png Democratic Florida, District 18
Tammy DuckworthElectiondot.png Democratic Illinois, District 8
Todd C. YoungEnds.png Republican Indiana, District 9

Governor

  • Democratic Party 1 Democrat
  • Republican Party 0 Republicans
Name:Party:Current office:
John C. Carney Jr.Electiondot.png Democratic U.S. House, Delaware, At-Large District

Battleground races

The purple districts on the Census district map were those found to be battlegrounds in Ballotpedia's study.

This table displays the criteria used to determine competitiveness in more specific detail. It gives ranges for each criterion and the competitiveness associated with them. Each district was analyzed using this as a baseline to determine competitiveness.

Color Key
Color Margin of Victory (MOV) Presidential MOV % Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
Purple- most competitive 0.0-4.9 0.0-4.9 1 Yes Toss-up
Orange- very competitive 5.0-7.9 5.0-7.9 2-3 N/A Lean D/R
Green- competitive 8.0-10.0 8.0-10.0 4-5 N/A Likely D/R
House winners labeled this color indicate the party of the winner being different from the party of the presidential winner of the state in 2012

The following races are those that are expected to be the most competitive in 2016. By that, we mean that the expected margin of victory for the following races will be under 5 percent.

Most competitive 2016 House elections
District Incumbent's party District MOV 2014 District MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2008 Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
Arizona's 1st Democratic 5.2 3.6 -2.5 -3.2 2 Yes Toss Up
Arizona's 2nd Republican 0.1 0.8 -1.5 -0.9 1 No Lean R
California's 7th Democratic 0.8 3.4 ✓4.0 ✓5.0 2 No Lean D
California's 25th Republican 6.7 9.6 -1.9 ✓1.0 1 No Toss Up
Colorado's 6th Republican 8.9 2.0 ✓5.1 ✓8.7 4 No Toss Up
Florida's 18th Democratic 19.6 0.6 -4.1 ✓3.1 2 Yes Toss Up
Florida's 26th Republican 2.9 10.6 ✓6.7 -0.4 1 No Toss Up
Illinois' 10th Republican 2.6 1.3 ✓16.4 ✓27.1 1 No Toss Up
Iowa's 1st Republican 2.3 15.4 ✓13.7 ✓18.1 1 No Lean D
Iowa's 3rd Republican 10.5 8.6 ✓4.2 ✓6.1 1 No Toss Up
Maine's 2nd Republican 5.0 15.7 ✓9.0 ✓12 1 No Toss Up
Michigan's 1st Republican 6.9 0.5 -8.3 ✓1.3 3 Yes Lean R
Minnesota's 2nd Republican 17.2 8.2 ✓0.1 ✓2.9 7 Yes Lean D
Nebraska's 2nd Democratic 3.3 1.6 -7.0 ✓1.0 1 No Toss Up
Nevada's 3rd Republican 24.6 7.5 ✓0.8 ✓8.9 3 Yes Toss Up
Nevada's 4th Republican 2.8 8.0 ✓10.7 ✓15.0 1 No Lean D
New Hampshire's 1st Republican 3.6 3.8 ✓1.6 ✓6.4 1 No Toss Up
New York's 1st Republican 8.7 4.6 ✓0.5 ✓3.0 1 No Toss Up
New York's 3rd Democratic 9.2 5.0 ✓2.6 ✓8.0 2 Yes Toss Up
New York's 19th Republican 28.1 5.3 ✓6.2 ✓8.0 3 Yes Toss Up
New York's 22nd Republican 48.1 19.9 -0.4 0.0 3 Yes Toss Up
New York's 24th Republican 18.8 5.3 ✓15.9 ✓14.0 1 No Toss Up
Pennsylvania's 8th Republican 23.8 13.2 -0.1 ✓7.5 3 Yes Toss Up
Texas' 23rd Republican 2.1 4.8 -2.6 ✓1.0 1 No Toss Up
Wisconsin's 8th Republican 30.1 12 -3.7 ✓8.7 3 Yes Toss Up
  • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

The following races, while not currently rated as battlegrounds, have the potential to become battleground districts as the races take shape throughout 2016. They are all expected to be at least somewhat competitive, but they are not considered among the most competitive races.

Races to watch
District Incumbent's Party District MOV 2014 District MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2008 Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
California's 10th Republican 12.3 5.4 ✓3.6 ✓3.0 3 No Lean R
Michigan's 7th Republican 12.3 10.3 -3.1 ✓3.4 3 No Lean R
Minnesota's 8th Democratic 1.4 8.9 ✓5.5 ✓8.6 2 No Lean D
New Jersey's 5th Republican 12.1 12.3 -3.1 -2.0 7 No Lean R
New York's 21st Republican 20.5 1.9 ✓6.1 ✓5.0 1 No Likely R
Utah's 4th Republican 3.3 0.3 -37 -15.2 1 No Toss-Up
Virginia's 10th Republican 16.1 19.7 -1.1 ✓2.8 1 No Lean R
  • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.


Defeated incumbents

Four incumbent members of Congress have lost their primary elections. Three of the four incumbents who lost faced unusual circumstances leading up to their primaries. One had been made vulnerable because of a criminal investigation, and two were defeated following major changes to their districts due to redistricting.

Chaka Fattah

Chaka Fattah

Chaka Fattah was the first incumbent to lose a primary in 2016. Fattah was defeated by Dwight Evans in the Democratic primary on April 26, 2016. Fattah represented Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District from 1994 until his resignation on June 23, 2016. Heading into the election, Fattah had been made vulnerable due to an indictment in 2015 on charges of bribery, money laundering, and bank and mail fraud, among other charges. Fattah was ultimately convicted of all charges in June and resigned shortly thereafter.[9][10][11][12]

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDwight Evans 42.3% 75,515
Chaka Fattah Incumbent 34.4% 61,518
Brian Gordon 13.2% 23,655
Dan Muroff 10.1% 18,016
Total Votes 178,704
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

Renee Ellmers

Renee Ellmers

Renee Ellmers was the second incumbent to fall in 2016. Ellmers was defeated by fellow GOP incumbent George Holding in North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District Republican primary. Holding represented the 13th Congressional District heading into the election, but redistricting altered both districts significantly, causing Holding to seek re-election in the 2nd District. Heading into the primary, Holding was a clear favorite. He had the backing of a number of Republican organizations, including Americans for Prosperity, FreedomWorks, and the Club for Growth. However, Ellmers did secure a late endorsement from Donald Trump. Holding easily defeated Ellmers, receiving over twice as many votes.[13][14][15][16][17]

U.S. House, North Carolina District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngGeorge Holding Incumbent 53.4% 17,084
Renee Ellmers Incumbent 23.6% 7,552
Greg Brannon 23% 7,359
Total Votes 31,995
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

Randy Forbes

Randy Forbes

Randy Forbes was defeated in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Republican primary on June 14, 2016, by state Del. Scott Taylor. Forbes, who represented the 4th Congressional District heading into the election, chose to seek re-election in District 2 after redistricting left his seat as a likely Democratic pickup in the general election. Forbes chose the second district because it was open following incumbent Scott Rigell's decision not to seek re-election. Forbes' move to the 2nd District made him vulnerable as the district was entirely outside of his constituency, leading to him being portrayed as an outsider. As a result, Taylor easily defeated Forbes by a margin of nearly 12 percent.[18][19]

U.S. House, Virginia District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngScott Taylor 52.6% 21,406
Randy Forbes Incumbent 40.6% 16,552
Pat Cardwell 6.8% 2,773
Total Votes 40,731
Source: Virginia Department of Elections

Tim Huelskamp

Tim Huelskamp

Tim Huelskamp was defeated in Kansas' 1st Congressional District Republican primary on August 2, 2016, by physician Roger Marshall. Huelskamp lost by a significant margin of 13 percent. Outside groups took an interest in the primary battle between Huelskamp and Marshall. In a reversal of the usual narrative, Huelskamp, the incumbent, was supported by the more conservative, anti-establishment wing of the Republican Party, while the challenger, Marshall, received the backing of groups normally associated with establishment Republicans. Huelskamp was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and the Club for Growth, while Marshall received endorsements from the Kansas Farm Bureau and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.[20][21]

U.S. House, Kansas District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRoger Marshall 56.5% 58,808
Tim Huelskamp Incumbent 43.5% 45,315
Total Votes 104,123
Source: Politico
Note: Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.


Primary competitiveness

Primary competitiveness measures the percentage of primary elections in which voters actually have a choice to make. In most cases this means those primaries in which there are two or more candidates running. However, in states that use a top-two primary system, a primary must have at least three candidates running to be considered contested. Candidates who have declared write-in campaigns are not enough for a race to be considered contested.

In 2016, 44.53 percent of all major-party primaries were contested. If you exclude California and Washington, the two states which use a top-two primary system, 41.53 percent of primaries were contested. As in the past several election cycles, Republican candidates faced significantly more primary opposition than Democratic ones. In Republican contests 46.17 percent of primaries were contested, while 36.89 percent of Democratic primaries were contested.

Incumbents sought re-election in 90 percent of U.S. House districts. Party made no real difference in the percentage of incumbents who sought re-election. However as was the case in overall primary races, Republican incumbents were more likely to face a primary challenger than Democratic incumbents. In Republican primary races featuring an incumbent, 52.25 percent of races were contested, while 44.71 percent of Democratic incumbents seeking re-election faced a primary challenger. With only six states yet to hold primaries, only four incumbents have been defeated in primary elections. This amounts to just over one percent, which is the average over the past decade.

The map below displays the percentage of contested primary races in each state.
• Filing deadline data is being used for states that haven't yet held their primaries. Slight inaccuracies may arise if filed candidates withdraw prior to the primary.
• Louisiana doesn't hold a primary. All candidates compete in the general election and a runoff is held if no candidate secures at least 50% of the vote.

Full data regarding general competitiveness and competition in races involving an incumbent can be found in the tables below.


Presidential impact

Presidential elections have a significant impact on congressional elections, the most obvious of which is increased voter interest and participation. In the last two decades, presidential elections have led to roughly 15 to 20 percent higher turnout rates than in the corresponding midterm.[22] The following chart shows the disparity between voter turnout in presidential elections and midterms.

Voter turnout comparison.JPG

In the past decade, presidential elections have benefited the Democratic Party, while midterms have helped Republicans. The Democratic Party gained an average of 16 house seats in the last two presidential elections, and the Republican Party picked up an average of 38.5 seats in the last two midterms.[3] Should this trend continue, Democrats stand to gain some ground in 2016.

Past partisan breakdowns
Year Democrats Republicans Net change
2014 188 247 +13 R
2012 201 234 +8 D
2010 193 242 +64 R
2008 257 178 +24 D
2006 233 202 +22 D

Committees

NRCC

See also: National Republican Congressional Committee

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) focuses on building and maintaining a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.[23]

The committee was founded in 1866.[23] According to the NRCC website, the committee:

“ ...supports the election of Republicans to the House through direct financial contributions to candidates and Republican Party organizations; technical and research assistance to Republican candidates and Party organizations; voter registration, education and turnout programs; and other Party-building activities."[23][24] ”

The current NRCC chairman is Rep. Greg Walden (OR-2).[23]

NRCC targets

The following Democratic incumbents are targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) heading into 2016.

National Republican Congressional Committee, Targeted incumbents
District Incumbent Open seat?
Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick Yes
Arizona's 9th District Kyrsten Sinema No
California's 3rd District John Garamendi No
California's 7th District Ami Bera No
California's 26th District Julia Brownley No
California's 31st District Pete Aguilar No
California's 36th District Raul Ruiz No
California's 52nd District Scott Peters No
Connecticut's 5th District Elizabeth Esty No
Florida's 2nd District Gwen Graham No
Florida's 18th District Patrick Murphy Yes
Illinois' 17th District Cheri Bustos No
Minnesota's 7th District Collin Peterson No
Minnesota's 8th District Rick Nolan No
Nebraska's 2nd District Brad Ashford No
New Hampshire's 2nd District Ann McLane Kuster No
New Mexico's 3rd District Ben Ray Lujan No
New York's 3rd District Steve Israel No
New York's 18th District Sean Maloney No

Patriot Program

The NRCC's Patriot Program is designed to help raise money and assist vulnerable incumbents seeking re-election. NRCC Chairman Greg Walden said of those in the program:

“ Our new Patriots have just shown that they know what it takes to run aggressive, organized, and winning campaigns. They have hit the ground running here in Washington and are tirelessly working hard to help grow the economy and fight for the hard working families and small businesses in their districts. I am proud to call them colleagues and am looking forward to helping ensure that they are able to win re-election and continue to serve beyond 2016.[25][24] ”
National Republican Congressional Committee Patriot Program 2016
District Incumbent
Arizona's 2nd District Martha McSally
California's 10th District Jeff Denham
California's 21st District David Valadao
California's 25th District Steve Knight
Florida's 26th District Carlos Curbelo
Illinois' 10th District Robert Dold
Illinois' 12th District Mike Bost
Illinois' 13th District Rodney Davis
Iowa's 3rd District David Young
Maine's 2nd District Bruce Poliquin
Michigan's 7th District Tim Walberg
New Hampshire's 1st District Frank Guinta
Nevada's 4th District Cresent Hardy
New York's 1st District Lee Zeldin
New York's 21st District Elise Stefanik
New York's 24th District John Katko
Pennsylvania's 6th District Ryan Costello
Texas' 23rd District Will Hurd
Virginia's 10th District Barbara Comstock

Young Guns

The NRCC announced the initial 32 candidates of its Young Guns program on November 19, 2015. The Young Guns program "supports and mentors challenger and open-seat candidates in races across the country." NRCC Chairman Greg Walden said of the candidates, "These 32 candidates all provide a stark contrast to their liberal opponents, whose support of bigger government, more spending and President Obama’s job-destroying agenda have steered our country down a dangerous path. With working families still struggling in this weak economy and our national security under increasing threats, we must elect more Republicans to Congress who will work to strengthen our nation. I am confident that these candidates will continue to work hard for their communities and build strong campaigns as we head into the election year."[26]

The NRCC added 11 more candidates to its Young Guns program on February 18, 2016.[27]

National Republican Congressional Committee Young Guns 2016
District Candidate Open seat?
Arizona's 1st District Ken Bennett Yes
Arizona's 1st District Gary Kiehne Yes
California's 3rd District Eugene Cleek No
California's 7th District Scott Jones No
California's 24th District Justin Fareed Yes
California's 24th District Katcho Achadjian Yes
California's 31st District Sean Flynn No
California's 52nd District Denise Gitsham No
Florida's 2nd District Mary Thomas No
Florida's 2nd District Neal Dunn No
Florida's 6th District Sandy Adams Yes
Florida's 6th District Adam Barringer Yes
Florida's 18th District Rebecca Negron Yes
Florida's 18th District Rick Kozell Yes
Florida's 18th District Noelle Nikpour Yes
Florida's 18th District Brian Mast Yes
Florida's 18th District Carl Domino Yes
Illinois' 8th District Pete DiCianni Yes
Illinois' 11th District Tonia Khouri No
Indiana's 3rd District Kip Tom Yes
Indiana's 3rd District Pam Galloway Yes
Indiana's 3rd District Jim Banks Yes
Indiana's 9th District Trey Hollingsworth Yes
Indiana's 9th District Erin Houchin Yes
Indiana's 9th District Greg Zoeller Yes
Maryland's 3rd District Mark Plaster No
Maryland's 6th District Amie Hoeber No
Michigan's 1st District Jason Allen Yes
Michigan's 1st District Tom Casperson Yes
Michigan's 10th District Phil Pavlov Yes
Michigan's 10th District Paul Mitchell Yes
Minnesota's 8th District Stewart Mills No
Nebraska's 2nd District Don Bacon No
Nevada's 3rd District Michael Roberson Yes
Nevada's 3rd District Danny Tarkanian Yes
Nevada's 3rd District Andy Matthews Yes
New York's 3rd District David Gurfein No
New York's 3rd District Jack Martins No
New York's 19th District Andrew Heaney Yes
New York's 19th District John Faso Yes
New York's 22nd District George Phillips Yes
New York's 22nd District Steve Wells Yes
Pennsylvania's 8th District Brian Fitzpatrick Yes

DCCC

See also: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) supports campaigns of Democratic candidates for the U.S. House.[23]

According to the DCCC website, the Committee is:

“
  • the official campaign arm of the Democrats in the House of Representatives.
  • the only political committee in the country whose principal mission is to support Democratic House candidates every step of the way to victory.[28][24]
 ”

The current chairman is Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (NM-3).[29]

Frontline

The DCCC's Frontline program is designed to assist Democratic incumbents who represent vulnerable districts. Chairman Ben Ray Lujan said of the program:

“ Each one of these members knows what it takes to win tough elections: working hard, standing up for your district, and not taking anything for granted. We are adding them to our Frontline Program, led by Representative Dan Kildee, to maximize their resources and ensure they are able to keep fighting to strengthen middle class economics. You don’t add by subtracting, so the success of our Members is integral to our plan to stay on offense in 2016.[30][24] ”

The DCCC announced the first 14 members of the 2016 Frontline Program on February 12, 2015. The following table displays the current members of the Frontline Program.[31]

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Frontline Program 2016
District Incumbent Open seat?
Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick Yes
Arizona's 9th District Kyrsten Sinema No
California's 7th District Ami Bera No
California's 26th District Julia Brownley No
California's 31st District Pete Aguilar No
California's 36th District Raul Ruiz No
California's 52nd District Scott Peters No
Florida's 2nd District Gwen Graham No
Florida's 18th District Patrick Murphy Yes
Illinois' 17th District Cheri Bustos No
Minnesota's 8th District Rick Nolan No
Nebraska's 2nd District Brad Ashford No
New Hampshire's 2nd District Ann McLane Kuster No
New York's 18th District Sean Maloney No

Red to Blue

On February 11, 2016, the DCCC released the first 31 members of its Red to Blue program. The program "highlights top Democratic campaigns across the country, and offers them financial, communications, grassroots, and strategic support."[32] Chairman Ben Ray Lujan said of the program:

“ House Democrats are on offense and will pick up seats in 2016, and these effective, hardworking and diverse candidates are the foundation of our success this year. Not only have these individuals proven themselves ready to win by building smart campaigns and through strong fundraising, they have also proven themselves ready to fight on behalf of all the people in their districts, keep them safe and ensure the economy works for everyone.

[24]

”
—Ben Ray Lujan, http://dccc.org/dccc-chairman-lujan-announces-first-31-districts-red-blue-program/
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Red to Blue 2016
District Candidate Open seat?
California's 24th District Salud Carbajal Yes
Colorado's 6th District Morgan Carroll No
Florida's 10th District Val Demings No
Florida's 13th District Multiple candidates Yes
Florida's 18th District Randy Perkins Yes
Florida's 26th District Annette Taddeo No
Iowa's 1st District Monica Vernon No
Illinois' 10th District Brad Schneider No
Maine's 2nd District Emily Cain No
Michigan's 1st District Lon Johnson Yes
Michigan's 7th District Gretchen Driskell No
Minnesota's 2nd District Angie Craig Yes
New Jersey's 5th District Josh Gottheimer No
New York's 1st District Multiple candidates No
New York's 24th District Multiple candidates No
Nevada's 3rd District Jacky Rosen Yes
Nevada's 4th District Multiple candidates No
Pennsylvania's 8th District Multiple candidates Yes
Texas' 23rd District Pete Gallego No
Utah's 4th District Doug Owens No
Virginia's 10th District LuAnn Bennett No

Emerging Races is the second tier of the Red to Blue program. According to the DCCC, it includes the districts "where campaigns are on track and working hard to put seats in play."[32]

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Emerging Races 2016
District Candidate Open seat?
Arizona's 1st District Tom O'Halleran Yes
California's 10th District Michael Eggman No
California's 25th District Bryan Caforio No
Colorado's 3rd District Gail Schwartz No
Iowa's 3rd District Multiple candidates No
Michigan's 8th District Melissa Gilbert No
Montana's At-Large District Denise Juneau No
New Hampshire's 1st District Carol Shea-Porter No
New York's 19th District Multiple candidates Yes
New York's 21st District Mike Derrick No
New York's 22nd District Kim Myers Yes
New York's 23rd District John Plumb No
Pennsylvania's 7th District Bill Golderer No
Virginia's 4th District Donald McEachin Yes
West Virginia's 2nd District Cory Simpson No
Wisconsin's 8th District Tom Nelson Yes

Campaign finance

DCCC and NRCC

The NRCC and the DCCC are the two principal political groups that raise funds to elect congressional candidates. The monthly fundraising figures for each committee will be displayed in the table below as they become available.

DCCC and NRCC monthly fundraising
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee National Republican Congressional Committee
Report Receipts Expenditures Cash on hand Debt Receipts Expenditures Cash on hand Debt
August 2016 $11,986,005 $7,313,148 $61,948,402 $0 $4,559,861 $3,811,379 $64,045,614 $0
July 2016 $12,082,519 $6,001,526 $57,275,546 $0 $9,344,238 $2,879,015 $63,297,132 $0
June 2016 $8,080,123 $5,012,480 $51,194,552 $0 $6,156,967 $2,360,778 $56,831,909 $0
May 2016 $8,585,572 $4,574,142 $48,126,909 $0 $5,354,797 $2,308,889 $53,035,719 $0
April 2016 $11,321,340 $4,241,723 $44,115,479 $0 $13,965,932 $3,016,854 $49,989,811 $0
March 2016 $7,149,636 $3,287,942 $37,035,862 $0 $6,333,745 $1,948,367 $39,040,733 $0
February 2016 $6,431,034 $2,578,738 $33,174,169 $0 $6,483,827 $1,938,307 $34,655,355 $0
Year-End $6,701,116 $3,557,846 $29,321,872 $0 $8,646,968 $2,222,889 $30,109,835 $0
December 2015 $4,564,220 $2,807,311 $26,178,602 $0 $2,689,708 $1,942,546 $23,685,756 $0
November 2015 $5,399,657 $2,739,869 $24,421,693 $0 $5,058,306 $1,957,888 $22,938,594 $0
October 2015 $6,622,268 $2,560,458 $21,761,905 $0 $3,325,054 $1,785,457 $19,838,176 $0
September 2015 $4,154,282 $2,608,496 $17,700,095 $0 $2,925,212 $1,907,428 $18,298,579 $0
August 2015 $4,392,802 $2,669,171 $16,154,309 $0 $3,699,315 $1,821,067 $17,280,795 $0
July 2015 $6,905,366 $2,591,313 $14,430,678 $0 $7,263,127 $2,525,676 $15,402,546 $0
June 2015 $4,417,024 $2,487,277 $10,116,625 $0 $3,746,619 $2,302,242 $10,665,096 $0
May 2015 $5,363,859 $6,455,002 $8,186,878 $0 $5,089,342 $2,805,149 $9,220,720 $0
April 2015 $8,182,885 $5,260,418 $9,278,020 $4,000,000 $17,310,849 $16,708,324 $6,936,526 $0
March 2015 $5,157,461 $5,653,299 $6,355,553 $6,500,000 $5,047,436 $2,327,080 $6,334,001 $7,000,000
February 2015 $6,376,209 $1,674,255 $6,851,392 $10,000,000 $4,448,611 $2,312,236 $3,613,645 $7,500,000

Prior elections

DCCC and NRCC yearly fundraising
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee National Republican Congressional Committee
Year Total Receipts Total Expenditures Total Receipts Total Expenditures
2014 $206,791,979 $206,130,764 $153,488,110 $153,545,450
2012 $183,843,028 $183,160,429 $155,724,601 $156,728,295
2010 $163,896,040 $163,582,271 $133,779,108 $132,098,654
2008 $176,204,612 $176,518,249 $118,324,756 $118,226,373
2006 $139,994,367 $140,876,916 $176,300,627 $178,063,132

Race ratings

The following table compares Ballotpedia's most recent battleground ratings with current race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report.

U.S. House race ratings comparison
District Ballotpedia Cook[33] Sabato[34] Rothenberg[35]
Alaska's At-Large Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
Arizona's 1st Battleground Toss-up Lean D Pure Toss-up
Arizona's 2nd Battleground Lean R Lean R R Favored
Arizona's 9th Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
California's 7th Battleground Lean D Lean D Lean D
California's 10th Competitive R Lean R Likely R Safe R
California's 21st Safe R Lean R Likely R R Favored
California's 24th Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D
California's 25th Battleground Toss-up Lean R R Favored
California's 31st Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D
California's 36th Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D
California's 49th Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
California's 52nd Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D
Colorado's 3rd Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R
Colorado's 6th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
Florida's 2nd[36] Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
Florida's 7th Safe R Lean R Likely R R Favored
Florida's 10th[36] Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
Florida's 13th Safe D Lean D Lean D D Favored
Florida's 18th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
Florida's 26th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
Florida's 27th Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
Illinois' 10th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
Illinois' 12th Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
Indiana's 9th Safe R Likely R Likely R R Favored
Iowa's 1st Battleground Lean D Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
Iowa's 3rd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
Kansas' 3rd Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
Maine's 2nd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
Maryland's 6th Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D
Michigan's 1st Battleground Lean R Toss-up Lean R
Michigan's 7th Competitive R Lean R Lean R Toss-up/Tilt R
Michigan's 11th Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
Minnesota's 2nd Battleground Lean D Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
Minnesota's 3rd Safe R Lean R Lean R R Favored
Minnesota's 8th Competitive D Lean D Lean D D Favored
Montana's At-Large Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
Nebraska's 2nd Battleground Lean D Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
Nevada's 3rd Battleground Toss-up Lean D Pure Toss-up
Nevada's 4th Battleground Lean D Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
New Hampshire's 1st Battleground Toss-up Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
New Jersey's 5th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
New York's 1st Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
New York's 3rd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt D
New York's 18th Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D
New York's 19th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Lean R
New York's 21st Competitive R Likely R Likely R Safe R
New York's 22nd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
New York's 23rd Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R
New York's 24th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
New York's 25th Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D
Pennsylvania's 6th Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
Pennsylvania's 8th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
Pennsylvania's 16th Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
Texas' 23rd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
Utah's 4th Competitive R Toss-up Toss-up R Favored
Virginia's 2nd Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R
Virginia's 4th[36] Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
Virginia's 5th Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
Virginia's 10th Competitive R Lean R Lean R Lean R
Washington's 8th Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
Wisconsin's 8th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up

2016 congressional filing deadlines by state

The table below lists congressional primary dates and filing deadlines for each state.[37]

Primary dates and filing deadlines, 2016
State Filing deadline for primary candidates Primary election
Alabama 11/6/2015 3/1/2016
Alaska 6/1/2016 8/16/2016
Arizona 6/1/2016 8/30/2016
Arkansas 11/9/2015 3/1/2016
California 3/11/2016 6/7/2016
Colorado 4/4/2016 6/28/2016
Connecticut 6/7/2016 8/9/2016
Delaware 7/12/2016 9/13/2016
District of Columbia 3/16/2016 6/14/2016
Florida 6/24/2016 8/30/2016
Georgia 3/11/2016 5/24/2016
Hawaii 6/7/2016 8/13/2016
Idaho 3/11/2016 5/17/2016
Illinois 11/30/2015 3/15/2016
Indiana 2/5/2016 5/3/2016
Iowa 3/18/2016 6/7/2016
Kansas 6/1/2016 8/2/2016
Kentucky 1/26/2016 5/17/2016
Louisiana 7/22/2016 11/8/2016
Maine 3/15/2016 6/14/2016
Maryland 2/3/2016 4/26/2016
Massachusetts 6/7/2016 9/20/2016
Michigan 4/19/2016 8/2/2016
Minnesota 5/31/2016 8/9/2016
Mississippi 1/8/2016 3/8/2016
Missouri 3/29/2016 8/2/2016
Montana 3/14/2016 6/7/2016
Nebraska 2/16/2016 (incumbents); 3/1/2016 (non-incumbents) 5/10/2016
Nevada 3/18/2016 6/14/2016
New Hampshire 6/10/2016 9/13/2016
New Jersey 4/4/2016 6/7/2016
New Mexico 2/2/2016 6/7/2016
New York 4/14/2016 (major parties); 4/21/2016 (write-in); 8/2/2016 (independents); 9/9/2016 (other parties) 6/28/2016
North Carolina 2/29/2016 3/15/2016 (all non-U.S. House races); 6/7/2016 (U.S. House)
North Dakota 4/11/2016 6/14/2016
Ohio 12/16/2015 3/15/2016
Oklahoma 4/15/2016 6/28/2016
Oregon 3/8/2016 5/17/2016
Pennsylvania 2/16/2016 4/26/2016
Rhode Island 6/29/2016 9/13/2016
South Carolina 3/30/2016 6/14/2016
South Dakota 3/29/2016 6/7/2016
Tennessee 4/7/2016 8/4/2016
Texas 12/14/2015 3/1/2016
Utah 3/17/2016 6/28/2016
Vermont 5/26/2016 8/9/2016
Virginia 3/31/2016 6/14/2016
Washington 5/20/2016 8/2/2016
West Virginia 1/30/2016 5/10/2016
Wisconsin 6/1/2016 8/9/2016
Wyoming 5/27/2016 8/16/2016

Recent news

This section displays the most recent stories in a Google news search for the term 2016 + house + elections


2016 House Elections News Feed

Some of the stories below may not be relevant to this page due to the nature of Google's news search engine. Read about Ballotpedia's inclusion of these search results here.

  • Loading...

See also

BP-Initials-UPDATED.png
 		Suggest a link

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Roll Call, "Can Democrats Win the House in 2016?" January 13, 2015
  2. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "House 2016: Gridlock Ahead for a Possible Clinton Administration?" May 28, 2015
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 United States House of Representatives, "Party Divisions of the House of Representatives," accessed September 8, 2015
  4. ↑ The New York Times, "John Boehner, House Speaker, Will Resign From Congress," September 25, 2015
  5. ↑ CNN, "Michael Grimm announces resignation," accessed January 5, 2015
  6. ↑ USA Today, "Rep. Alan Nunnelee dies at 56," February 6, 2015
  7. ↑ Philly.com, "Special election for Fattah's former U.S. House seat will be Nov. 8," July 1, 2016
  8. ↑ Hawaii News Now, "State to hold special election for remainder of Takai's term," July 20, 2016
  9. ↑ 6abc.com, "Rep. Chaka Fattah indicted in racketeering case," July 29, 2015
  10. ↑ The Hill, "Rep. Chaka Fattah found guilty on corruption charges," June 21, 2016
  11. ↑ Politico, "Fattah submits resignation but wants to stay until October," June 22, 2016
  12. ↑ ABC 6, "Rep. Chaka Fattah resigns effective immediately," June 23, 2016
  13. ↑ Roll Call, "The Unprecedented Action of One Anti-Abortion Group," May 11, 2016
  14. ↑ Politico, "Koch-backed group targets first GOP incumbent in primary," May 12, 2016
  15. ↑ The New York Times, "Donald Trump Makes His First Congressional Endorsement," June 6, 2016
  16. ↑ Politico, "Koch-backed group targets first GOP incumbent in primary," May 12, 2016
  17. ↑ The New York Times, "North Carolina Primary Results," June 7, 2016
  18. ↑ The New York Times, "Virginia Primary Results," June 14, 2016
  19. ↑ Politico, "GOP Rep. Scott Rigell retiring," January 14, 2016
  20. ↑ National Review, " What’s Going On in Kansas’s Big First?" August 2, 2016
  21. ↑ Politico, "Kansas House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  22. ↑ United States Election Project, "Voter Turnout," accessed September 6, 2015
  23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 NRCC "About," accessed September 8, 2015
  24. ↑ 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributed to the original source.
  25. ↑ Roll Call, "Exclusive: NRCC Announces 12 Members in Patriot Program," February 13, 2015
  26. ↑ NRCC, "32 Congressional Candidates Announced “On the Radar” as Part of NRCC’s Young Guns Program," November 19, 2015
  27. ↑ NRCC, "11 Candidates Added to “On the Radar” in NRCC’S Young Guns Program," February 18, 2016
  28. ↑ The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "About us," accessed January 22, 2015
  29. ↑ Buzzfeed, "The 2014 Election Began On Election Night For House Democrats," November 27, 2012
  30. ↑ DCCC, "Frontline Democrats 2015-2016," February 12, 2015
  31. ↑ Roll Call, "Exclusive: DCCC Announces 14 Incumbents in Frontline Program," February 12, 2015
  32. ↑ 32.0 32.1 DCCC, "DCCC Chairman Luján Announces First 31 Districts In Red To Blue Program," February 11, 2016
  33. ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2016 House Race Ratings," accessed August 24, 2016
  34. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 House," accessed August 24, 2016
  35. ↑ The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "House Ratings," accessed August 24, 2016
  36. ↑ 36.0 36.1 36.2 Due to court-ordered redistricting, Florida's 2nd and 10th Congressional Districts and Virginia's 4th Congressional District are expected to flip partisan control. However, Ballotpedia predicts that these races will not be competitive.
  37. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2016 Preliminary Presidential and Congressional Primary Dates," accessed September 21, 2015
v • e
2015-2016 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maryland • Missouri • Nevada • New Hampshire • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • South Carolina • South Dakota • Utah • Vermont • Washington • Wisconsin
CongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
This article is curated by the Federal desk:
Sarah Rosier • Emily Aubert • Charles Aull • Kelly Coyle • Kevin Eirich • Justin Haas • Sarah Hilton
Contact the desk

For information about public policy issues in the 2016 elections, see: Public policy in the 2016 elections!

Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016&oldid=6269068"