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United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2012

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 Montana's 2012 elections
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See the full article here: Montana's At-Large Congressional District elections, 2012

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2012 U.S. House Elections in Montana
Primary Date
June 5, 2012
Partisan breakdown • Candidates
Montana District Pages
At-Large District
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2012 U.S. Senate Elections
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Montana's At-Large Congressional District
General Election Date
November 6, 2012
Primary Date
June 5, 2012
District history • Candidates
November 6 Election Winner:
Steve Daines Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Denny Rehberg Republican Party
Denny Rehberg.jpg
Montana U.S. House Elections
At-Large District
2012 U.S. Senate Elections
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The 2012 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Montana took place on November 6, 2012. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's At-Large Congressional District.

Steve Daines (R) won election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 12, 2012
June 5, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Montana has an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 11, 2012. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 6, 2012.[2]

See also: Montana elections, 2012

Incumbent: In 2012, Montana's congressional district was an open seat. The incumbent was Denny Rehberg (R). Rehberg did not run for re-election and instead ran for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester (D).

Montana has a single At-Large Congressional District, which is made up of the entire state.

The state of Montana's at-large Congressional district.

Heading into the November 6 election, the Republican Party held the one Congressional seat from Montana.

Members of the U.S. House from Montana -- Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2012 After the 2012 Election
     Democratic Party 0 0
     Republican Party 1 1
Total 1 1


The Center for Voting and Democracy (Fairvote) did not make a projection about who would win this seat.[3]

Primary competitiveness

See also: National contested primary average during the 2012 U.S. congressional elections

Montana tied with Hawaii, Idaho, Alaska, Rhode Island, and Washington for having the most competitive congressional primaries in 2012, with 100% of major party primaries having been contested (2 out of 2). The national average was 54.31%.

Montana's one U.S. House incumbent did not seek re-election in 2012. Nationwide, 200 out of the 386 incumbents seeking re-election faced a primary challenger (51.81%).

Margin of victory for winners

There was a total of 1 seat up for election in 2012 in Montana. The following table shows the margin of victory for each district winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%.

District Winner Margin of Victory Total Vote Top Opponent
Montana, At-Large, District Republican Party Steve Daines 10.5% 479,740 Kim Gillan

General election candidates

District General Election Candidates Incumbent 2012 Winner Partisan Switch?
At-large Democratic Party Kim Gillan
Republican Party Steve Daines
Libertarian Party David Kaiser
Denny Rehberg Republican Party Steve Daines No

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Kim Gillan
Republican Party Steve DainesGreen check mark transparent.png
Libertarian Party David Kaiser

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian candidate

Election results

U.S. House, Montana, At-Large District General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Kim Gillan 42.7% 204,939
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSteve Daines 53.3% 255,468
     Libertarian David Kaiser 4% 19,333
Total Votes 479,740
Source: Montana Secretary of State "2012 Election Center"

Democratic Primary

Montana's At-Large District Democratic Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngKim Gillan 31% 25,077
Diane Smith 15.6% 12,618
Dave Strohmaier 14.1% 11,366
Rob Stutz 3.2% 2,586
Franke Wilmer 18.4% 14,836
Sam Rankin 11.6% 9,382
Jason Ward 6.1% 4,959
Total Votes 80,824

Republican Primary

Montana At-large Congressional District Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngSteve Daines 71.2% 82,843
Eric Brosten 18.1% 21,012
Vincent Melkus 10.7% 12,420
Total Votes 116,275

Polls

Gillan vs. Daines
Poll Kim Gillan Steve DainesOtherUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Pharos Research Group
(October 26-28, 2012)
 44.6%51.6%0%3.8%+/-3.5799
Public Policy Polling (October 10, 2012)
 34%43%10%12%+/-3.6737
Mason-Dixon Polling (September 22, 2012)
 38%46%2%14%+/-4625
Public Policy Polling (September 10&11, 2012)
 37%40%9%15%+/-3.8656
AVERAGES 38.4% 45.15% 5.25% 11.2% +/-3.73 704.25
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Campaign donors

Kim Gillan

Kim Gillan (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period		ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[15]March 31, 2012$95,346.99$66,592.12$(50,732.17)$111,206.94
Pre-Primary[16]May 24, 2012$111,206.94$36,317.76$(88,319.32)$59,205.38
July Quarterly[17]June 30, 2012$59,205.38$100,230.21$(71,529.93)$87,905.66
October Quarterly[18]October 15, 2012$87,905.66$377,276.33$(313,922.45)$151,259.54
Pre-General[19]October 25, 2012$151,259.54$63,638.97$(61,302.26)$153,596.25
Running totals
$644,055.39$(585,806.13)

Steve Daines

Steve Daines (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period		ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[20]March 31, 2012$630,561.21$170,950.63$(75,092.52)$726,419.32
Pre-Primary[21]May 24, 2012$726,419.32$71,508.59$(54,681.13)$743,246.78
July Quarterly[22]June 30, 2012$743,246.78$173,255.29$(63,277.73)$853,224.34
October Quarterly[23]October 15, 2012$853,224.34$488,957.61$(985,271.46)$356,910.49
Pre-General[24]October 25, 2012$356,910.49$81,267.50$(317,019.35)$121,158.64
Running totals
$985,939.62$(1,495,342.19)

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Montana," accessed November 7, 2012
  2. ↑ Montana Secretary of State, "Voter Information," accessed July 25, 2012
  3. ↑ , "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Montana," September 2012
  4. ↑ KAJ 18 "Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House," June 22, 2011
  5. ↑ Billings Gazette "Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race," November 3, 2011
  6. ↑ KPAX 8 "Strohmaier announces run for Congress," June 18, 2011
  7. ↑ KRTV 3 "Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House," August 10, 2011
  8. ↑ KRTV 3 "Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid," February 1, 2011
  9. ↑ Billings Gazette "Billings real estate agent joins U.S. House race" March 13, 2012
  10. ↑ Great Falls Tribune "Democrats battling GOP dominance for Montana's House seat" March 13, 2012
  11. ↑ KXLF "Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race," February 4, 2011
  12. ↑ Missoulian "Eric Brosten biography" March 13, 2012
  13. ↑ The Republic "Ex-Marine, Colorado college student files in Montana to run for Congress" March 13, 2012
  14. ↑ Missoulian "Democrat Rankin announces bid for U.S. House nomination" March 13, 2012
  15. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Kim Gillan April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  16. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Kim Gillan Pre-Primary," accessed November 2, 2012
  17. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Kim Gillan July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  18. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Kim Gillan October Quarterly," accessed November 2, 2012
  19. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Kim Gillan Pre-General," accessed November 2, 2012
  20. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Steve Daines April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  21. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Steve Daines Pre-Primary," accessed November 2, 2012
  22. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Steve Daines July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2012
  23. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Steve Daines October Quarterly," accessed November 2, 2012
  24. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Steve Daines Pre-General," accessed November 2, 2012
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