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United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2024
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June 4, 2024 |
November 5, 2024 |
2024 U.S. House Elections |
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The U.S. House of Representatives elections in Montana were on November 5, 2024. Voters elected two candidates to serve in the U.S. House from each of the state's two U.S. House districts. The primary was June 4, 2024. The filing deadline was March 11, 2024.
Partisan breakdown
| Members of the U.S. House from Montana -- Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2024 | After the 2024 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 0 | 0 | |
| Republican Party | 2 | 2 | |
| Total | 2 | 2 | |
Candidates
District 1
General election candidates
- Ryan K. Zinke (Incumbent) (Republican Party) ✔
- Monica Tranel (Democratic Party)
- Dennis Hayes (Libertarian Party)
Democratic primary candidates
Republican primary candidates
- Ryan K. Zinke (Incumbent) ✔
- Mary Todd
Did not make the ballot:
Minor Party primary candidates
Libertarian Party
- Dennis Hayes ✔
- Ernie Noble (unofficially withdrew)
District 2
General election candidates
- John B. Driscoll (Democratic Party)
- Troy Downing (Republican Party) ✔
- Reilly Neill (Democratic Party) (Write-in)
- John Metzger (Independent) (Write-in)
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey Democratic primary candidates
= candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey Republican primary candidates
- Elsie Arntzen
- Kyle Austin
- Kenneth Bogner
- Troy Downing ✔
- Ric Holden
- Joel G. Krautter
- Denny Rehberg
- Edward Walker
- Stacy Zinn
Did not make the ballot:
- Matt Rosendale (Incumbent)
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Montana
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[1]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[2][3][4]
Click the following links to see the race ratings in each of the state's U.S. House districts:
Ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Montana in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Montana, click here.
| Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
| Montana | U.S. House | Ballot-qualified party | N/A | $1,740.00 | 3/11/2024 | Source |
| Montana | U.S. House | Unaffiliated | 6,128[5] | $1,740.00 | 6/3/2024 | Source |
Election analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about competitiveness, presidential election history, and party control in the state.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state's U.S. House districts.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Montana.
| Montana U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
| 2024 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 75.0% | 1 | 100.0% | ||||
| 2022 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | ||||
| 2020 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | N/A | ||||
| 2018 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| 2016 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| 2014 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | N/A | ||||
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Montana in 2024. Information below was calculated on March 31, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Sixteen candidates, including five Democrats and 11 Republicans, ran for Montana’s two U.S. House districts in 2024. That’s eight candidates per district, higher than the 7.5 candidates who ran in 2022 but the same as the eight candidates who ran in 2020.
The total number of candidates who ran for the U.S. House in 2024 was also higher than any other year this decade. Fifteen candidates ran in 2022, eight in 2020, seven in 2018, two in 2016, and seven in 2014.
One seat was open in 2024, meaning an incumbent did not run for re-election. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-2nd) did not run for re-election because he is retired from public office.
Thirteen candidates—four Democrats and nine Republicans—ran for the open 2nd Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a seat in 2024.
Three primaries—one Democratic and two Republican—were contested in 2024. Four primaries were contested in 2022, two primaries were contested in 2020, and one was in 2018.
Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-1st) was the only incumbent who faced a primary challenger in 2024.
Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in both districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.| Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Montana, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI |
| Montana's 1st | Ryan Zinke |  Republican |
R+6 |
| Montana's 2nd | Matt Rosendale | Republican |
R+16 |
| 2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2024 district lines, Montana[6] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Joe Biden
|
Donald Trump
| ||
| Montana's 1st | 45.3% | 52.2% | ||
| Montana's 2nd | 35.3% | 62.2% | ||
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Montana's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Montana | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 2 | 4 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Montana's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.
| State executive officials in Montana, May 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | Greg Gianforte
|
| Lieutenant Governor | Kristen Juras
|
| Secretary of State | Christi Jacobsen
|
| Attorney General | Austin Knudsen
|
State legislature
Montana State Senate
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 16 | |
| Republican Party | 34 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 50 | |
Montana House of Representatives
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 32 | |
| Republican Party | 68 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.
Montana Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | S | S | R | R | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Average of all congressional districts.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed December 15, 2023
