United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016

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2016 U.S. Senate Election in Arizona
General Election Date
November 8, 2016
Primary Date
August 30, 2016
November 8 Election Winner:
John McCain Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
John McCain Republican Party
John McCain.jpg
Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean R[1]
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely R[2]
Rothenberg & Gonzales: R Favored[3]
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2016 U.S. House Elections
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Voters in Arizona elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 8, 2016.


HISTORICAL FACTS
  • Incumbent Sen. John McCain (R) held Arizona's Class 3 Senate seat since 1987.
  • Sen. Carl T. Hayden was the last Democrat elected to the seat. Hayden served from 1927 to 1969.
  • The Senate seat had changed party control three times.
  • Sen. Ernest W. McFarland (D) was the last incumbent senator from Arizona to lose his seat when Sen. Barry M. Goldwater (R) defeated him in the 1952 general election.[4][5]
    • Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
    June 1, 2016
    August 30, 2016
    November 8, 2016

    Primary: A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Arizona utilizes a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[6][7][8]

    For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.


    Incumbent: The election filled the Class 3 Senate seat held by John McCain (R). He was first elected in 1986.

    Election results

    General election

    U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain Incumbent 53.7% 1,359,267
         Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 1,031,245
         Green Gary Swing 5.5% 138,634
         N/A Write-in 0.1% 1,584
    Total Votes 2,530,730
    Source: Arizona Secretary of State

    Primary election

    U.S. Senate, Arizona Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain Incumbent 51.2% 302,532
    Kelli Ward 39.9% 235,988
    Alex Meluskey 5.3% 31,159
    Clair Van Steenwyk 3.6% 21,476
    Total Votes 591,155
    Source: Arizona Secretary of State

    Candidates

    General election candidates:

    Republican Party John McCain Approveda
    Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick
    Green Party Gary Swing
    Republican Party Sean Webster (Write-in)
    Democratic Party Axel Bello (Write-in)
    Democratic Party Sheila Bilyeu (Write-in)
    Libertarian Party Merissa Hamilton (Write-in)
    Grey.png Pat Quinn (Write-in)

    Primary candidates:[9]

    Democratic

    Ann Kirkpatrick - U.S. Rep.[10] Approveda

    Republican

    John McCain - Incumbent[11] Approveda
    Kelli Ward - State senator[12]
    Clair Van Steenwyk[13]

    		 Withdrew:
    Lennie Clark (D)[14][13]
    J.L. Mealer (Americans Elect of Arizona)
    Alex Meluskey (R) - Business owner[15]

    Disqualified:

    Frank Tamburri (Libertarian)[13]


    General election background

    Republican coattails

    McCain provided a reverse coattails effect for President Donald Trump. McCain won 53.4 percent of the vote, while Trump earned 49.5 percent of the vote, a 3.9 percent difference.

    A full breakdown of the Republican presidential and Senate races appears below.

    *Ballotpedia identified the highlighted races as battleground races and races to watch. The vote percentages are from CNN and will be updated after the final results are released.

    Debate

    Sen. John McCain (R) and Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) debated on October 10, 2016, at 7 p.m. MST. The candidates discussed foreign, domestic, and regional issues. It was their first and only debate.[16]

    Cronkite News, 2016 U.S. Senate debate: McCain and Kirkpatrick, October 10, 2016

    Kirkpatrick released the following statement on the debate: "I look forward to debating John McCain in the weeks ahead because Arizonans deserve to see the stark contrasts between our visions for the future of this beautiful state. They will see just how clearly John McCain has changed after 33 years in Washington, and how I have never wavered in my commitment to working families, making education affordable, standing up for our veterans, and building the stable, diverse economy we need."[16]

    McCain's campaign spokeswoman Lorna Romero released the following statement on the debate: “John McCain is proud of his record of accomplishment for the State of Arizona and looks forward to discussing the issues most important to Arizona families including national security, sensible immigration reform, and strengthening Arizona’s economy. He thanks the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication, Arizona PBS and Republic Media for hosting the Phoenix debate.”[16]

    Issues

    Healthcare

    See also: Effect of the Affordable Care Act in Arizona

    As insurers left Arizona's healthcare market and residents saw rising healthcare premiums, the future of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, became a central issue in the Senate race. McCain repeatedly stated his opposition to the ACA and tried to tie Kirkpatrick to the law by reminding voters that she said her vote in favor of the ACA was the one she’s “most proud about.”[17]

    Tom Miller, a health policy expert at the American Enterprise Institute said, “The McCain folks have tapped into a serious concern in the marketplace. They’ve got real numbers — it’s not theoretical. He’s got a very tough race, a changing electorate, he has to deal with the Trump stuff — this allows him to say something a little more aggressive and be on the attack.”[17]

    ABC 15 Arizona reported that healthcare costs were rising nationwide with "spending per person is set to exceed $10,000 per year for the first time" and premiums "expected to rise on average about 25 percent" in 2017. In addition, Blue Cross Blue Shield, which will be the sole provider offering ACA plans in 13 of Arizona's 15 counties, "is requesting a 51 percent increase" in premiums.[18]

    Michael Carlin, president of Wealth Management in Scottsdale, said, "9 percent of the U.S. population is currently not covered by a health plan, which is the best we've seen. It's great progress, but unfortunately it's coming at a real economic cost. We're just starting to see it get noticeably bad."[18]

    Kirkpatrick: Fix the ACA

    Kirkpatrick, who voted for the ACA in 2010, acknowledged the problems with the healthcare law but argued that it should be fixed, not replaced. She said, "The Affordable Care Act has been the law for six years. We need to come together in a bipartisan way and fix it. I've always said it's not perfect."[18]

    Kirkpatrick also accused insurance companies of acting "politically" in their decisions to leave the state. According to The Arizona Daily Star, Kirkpatrick "believes that some of the issues with the system, including problems with finding companies willing to provide health insurance in rural areas, have become political. For example, AETNA’s decision to leave the ACA marketplace briefly left Pinal County residents without an option to buy subsidized health insurance. She contends AETNA officials left the marketplace because they wanted to hold federal officials hostage." Kirkpatrick said, “AETNA’s situation is vindictive. They are getting revenge on the Department of Justice who wouldn’t approve their merger with Humana. They are hurting real families who depend on their medical care. ... Insurance companies are making record profit, including health-insurance companies.”[19]

    On August 18, 2016, after Aetna decided to leave Arizona and BCBS considered leaving, Kirkpatrick wrote a letter to BCBS asking the company to stay in Pinal County, which would have been the only county in the nation without an insurance exchange under the ACA. On September 7, 2016, Jeff Stelnik, senior vice president of sales, strategy, and marketing for Blue Cross Blue Shield of Arizona, announced that BCBS would stay in Arizona. He said, “We were concerned about not only the long-term stability, but at the same time extremely concerned that Pinal residents had no options under the exchange."[20][21]

    Kirkpatrick lost her seat in 2010 after she voted for the ACA, but her campaign said that she was not worried that voters would hold her vote against her. D.B. Mitchell, a Kirkpatrick spokesman, wrote in an email, “Outside groups and national Republicans have spent millions and millions against Ann [over the years attacking her over her vote for Obamacare.] But Ann's continued to win a Republican district despite these attacks.”[17]

    McCain: Repeal and replace the ACA

    McCain, who voted against the ACA and wanted to replace it with his own proposal, argued that the healthcare law was failing. In a press release announcing his introduction of S 2519—the Empowering Patients First Act of 2015—with Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) on February 9, 2016, McCain said, “Since the president jammed Obamacare through Congress without a single Republican vote, the American people have been let down by higher health care costs, decreased quality of care, and fewer choices. Families in Arizona and across the country should have the power to make their own medical decisions – not Washington bureaucrats. This bill puts patients and doctors back in charge of their health care by fully repealing Obamacare and replacing it with a free-market approach that strengthens the quality and accessibility of care.”[22]

    The bill proposed the following:[23][22]

    • Establishing age-adjusted tax credits;
    • Ensuring that no one is priced out of the market, including individuals with pre-existing conditions;
    • Providing economic incentives for everyone to purchase coverage, without mandates;
    • Making coverage more portable to help ensure continuity of care;
    • Protecting employer-sponsored insurance;
    • Promoting wellness and improved care through economic incentives;
    • Curbing defensive medicine and lawsuit abuse through tort reform;
    • Delivering greater coverage options, including Independent Health Pools (IHPs) and Association Health Plans (AHPs);
    • Allowing for the purchase of insurance across state lines;
    • Building on Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and other models to drive down costs; and
    • Creating parity between the individual and large group markets.

    One of McCain's main complaints about the ACA was that it does not offer enough choices to consumers, as his legislation proposed. On September 8, 2016, McCain tweeted: "14 out of 15 #AZ counties have just 1 provider offering #Obamacare plans in 2017 - that's the opposite of choice." According to a fact-check conducted by The Arizona Republic, McCain's statement was accurate. A reporter from The Republic explained, "Cynthia Cox, associate director of the Program for the Study of Health Reform and Private Insurance at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told AZ Fact Check that as it stands now, the residents of 14 Arizona counties will only have one option for health-care coverage. The exception is Pima County, which will have two ACA insurance options. Arizona uses a federally facilitated exchange, meaning Arizona residents enroll in health-care exchange plans via healthcare.gov. Eleven insurers offered ACA plans in Arizona in 2015. In 2017, there will be three carriers offering ACA plans, Cox said."[24][25]

    He also criticized the ACA because of its funding model. While speaking at a town hall event at the Phoenix Better Business Bureau on September 16, 2016, McCain said, “The fundamental problem is they [the administration] decided they were going to take money from healthy, young Americans to subsidize the health care of not-so-healthy older Americans. This is why there has to be a repeal.”[26]

    Iran nuclear deal

    See also: Iran nuclear agreement: An overview

    On September 21, 2015, McCain and Kirkpatrick both published op-eds in The Arizona Republic explaining their positions on the nuclear deal with Iran, an agreement that placed limits on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for economic sanctions relief. McCain cast multiple votes against allowing President Barack Obama to complete the deal, while Kirkpatrick cast multiple votes in favor of the deal.

    McCain explained his stance on the deal, writing, "I oppose President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran because it has dangerous implications for the security of America and our allies, including Israel. Rather than cut off Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon, it paves a new one. It legitimizes Iran as a threshold nuclear state with an industrial enrichment capability, unshackles the regime in its long-held pursuit of conventional military power, and gives billions of dollars to the No. 1 state sponsor of terrorism in the world."[27]

    He then described the turmoil in the Middle East and offered suggestions for how to deal with an increasingly powerful Iranian regime. He wrote, "Our nation needs leadership – a strategy and policies to address the challenges to our security, especially the broader threat posed by Iran. This larger response should include new legislation to increase sanctions against Iran for its malicious activities in the Middle East and its human rights abuses, provide new security assistance for our allies and partners in the region, and fund our military to meet the serious threats we face."[27]

    Kirkpatrick wrote that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the formal name for the agreement, "provides the best path to ensure that Iran cannot produce a nuclear weapon. No approach to Iran is without risk, and the deal isn’t perfect, but the United States has an opportunity to lead the world on a historic and critical diplomatic course against danger and chaos. I’ve given the plan careful consideration, met with military and policy leaders, and listened to folks across Arizona — and I have decided to support it."[28]

    She also criticized McCain's opposition to the deal, writing, "I respect John McCain’s service to our country, but I disagree with his approach on these matters — it’s an approach that escalates conflicts and advocates for more wars. Ever since Sen. McCain voted for the war in Iraq, his foreign policy playbook has run low on diplomacy."[28]

    The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal

    See also: The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal: An overview

    Kirkpatrick opposed and McCain supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is a trade deal between the United States and 11 Asia-Pacific countries. The deal seeks to promote trade and strengthen the relationships between the 12 nations by reducing and eliminating tariffs, fostering competition, and creating greater opportunities for businesses. The countries involved have also agreed to promote environmental protection practices and enforce laws protecting workers. Congress has not voted on the final agreement.

    Kirkpatrick voted against giving President Barack Obama trade promotion authority (TPA) to negotiate the TPP. McCain voted in favor of TPA.[29][30][31]

    In June 2015, Kirkpatrick sent an email to supporters explaining her opposition to TPA legislation and the TPP. She wrote, "This [TPA] could severely limit Congress’ ability to substantively amend the final [TPP] agreement to ensure it protects American small businesses and workers. I oppose fast track because American workers need to be protected. ... Free trade can be a good thing. But free trade done in secret can lead to serious problems -- including offshoring of American jobs, an uneven playing field for American business, and the erosion of labor, environmental, and safety standards. American workers depend on us to make sure they are protected in free trade agreements. We cannot allow that power to be taken away through fast track authority."[32]

    During a speech at a U.S.-Asia policy forum at the Heritage Foundation on September 9, 2016, McCain said that passing TPP was important for building relationships with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. He said, “If TPP fails, American leadership in the Asia-Pacific may very well fail with it. I recently asked the prime minister of Singapore what would happen if the United States fails to ratify the TPP. His response: ‘You’re finished in Asia. Let me repeat: You’re finished in Asia.’" He added that the TPP was a “historic opportunity to reduce trade barriers, open new markets, promote exports and keep U.S. companies competitive in one of the most economically vibrant and fastest-growing regions of the world.”[33]

    Campaign themes

    Republican Party John McCain

    The following issues were listed on McCain's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes, click here.

    “
    • Agriculture: John is working to preserve the important role that farmers and ranchers play in Arizona's heritage and economy.
    • Defense and National Security: John has committed his life – both in uniform and in Congress – to protecting and strengthening America’s national security.
    • Education: John believes that Arizona students are best served when parents, teachers, and state and local officials—not federal bureaucrats—are in control.
    • Energy, Water and the Environment: It is a national security priority for our nation to become independent from foreign sources of energy, especially sources in hostile parts of the world.
    • Foreign Affairs and International Trade: John has consistently served as the nation’s leading voice opposing President Obama’s feckless and failed policies for defeating radical Islamic extremism.

    [34]

    		”
    —John McCain's campaign website, http://www.johnmccain.com/issues/

    Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick

    The following issues were listed on Kirkpatrick's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes, click here.

    “
    • Jobs for Arizona: Ann’s economic approach is aimed toward a central goal: Get folks back to work in good-paying jobs.
    • Defending Medicare and Social Security: Ann believes in the promise this nation has made to our seniors – that a lifetime of hard work will lead to economic security and access to health care in retirement.
    • Fiscal Responsibility: Growing up in the White Mountains, Ann learned the value of a dollar from her father, who ran the general store. Those lessons stayed with her as she worked her way through college and law school and when she ran her own business in Flagstaff.
    • Honoring Our Veterans: Ann has a record of unfailing support for veterans’ benefits and veterans’ programs that assist with job placement, health care and education.
    • Investing in Education: As a mother who sent her children to Arizona’s public schools, Ann knows we must do more to recruit, train and retain high-quality teachers in our state – particularly in rural communities. And, just as important, we must put our teachers and students in a position to succeed by properly funding classrooms, training programs and other essential needs.

    [34]

    		”
    —Ann Kirkpatrick's campaign website, http://www.kirkpatrickforsenate.com/issues/

    Primary election background

    Primary election recap

    In the primary election on August 30, 2016, McCain defeated former Arizona state Sen. Kelli Ward, dubbed “Lady Trump” by Salon, a title she liked and lived up to. Ward, an anti-establishment Republican, supported Trump’s call to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, saying, "I want to mix the mortar to fix the border." She also preferred waging personal attacks against her opponent, as Trump has done, calling McCain a “pretty sour old guy.”[35][36][37][38]

    McCain also defeated retired political talk radio show host and perennial candidate Clair Van Steenwyk in the Republican primary. Van Steenwyk also ran for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District seat.[39]

    Democratic candidate Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick did not face a primary opponent.

    Ward's attack on McCain’s age

    Ward, citing her experience as a doctor of osteopathic medicine, warned voters that McCain might not live through his full six-year term if he was re-elected to the Senate. McCain began his career in Congress in 1983 and, is the eighth-oldest senator currently serving.[40]

    On August 25, 2016, during an interview with MSNBC's Chuck Todd, Ward said, "John McCain has fallen down on the job. He's gotten weak. He's gotten old. … want to give him the best birthday present ever: the gift of retirement." McCain turned 80 on August 29, 2016.[40]

    When Todd asked Ward if she thought McCain was too old to serve another term in the Senate, she said, "I'm a physician. I see the physiological changes that happen in normal patients again and again and again over the last 20, 25 years, so I do know what happens to the body and the mind at the end of life."[40]

    Todd then asked, "You feel comfortable diagnosing him on air like this?"[40]

    Ward replied, "Diagnosing him as an 80-year-old man, yes, I do."[40]

    In response to Ward’s comments, McCain spokeswoman Lorna Romero said, "At the end of campaigns, desperate candidates too often embarrassing themselves by launching dishonorable, personal attacks. It's unfortunate that Kelli Ward has chosen to end her campaign with desperate fictions."[40]

    When asked by Politico if the attack was “a last-ditch attack to reverse her fortunes; polls show her trailing badly,” Ward said that Arizonans “have the right to know he’s an 80-year old man who’s been in Washington for more than 40 years.” McCain has served in Congress for 34 years, not 40.[38]

    Ward added, “There are things that happen physiologically with the body and the mind. One of them is control over your anger and he’s already known as an angry man. It becomes more and more difficult to control those kinds of outbursts. And we have to have someone with a steady hand, someone with the ability to think on their feet. Someone who can problem-solve. … He and his people have said I’m too conservative, I’m too liberal, I’m a racist, I’m a bigot. And even equating me to a prostitute, saying I’m 'Street Corner Kelli.' If that’s not scraping the bottom of the barrel, I don't know what is. Pointing out a simple, biological, physiological fact that he’s turning 80 on Monday, that is 100 percent complete truth and the people deserve to know.”[38]

    McCain responded to the attack on his age, saying, “It turns people off. I think it harms all of us when you have this level of personal attacks. I don't think it’s good for the political process. But it is what it is.”[38]

    Longevity runs in McCain's family. His mother, Roberta McCain, turned 104 years old on February 7, 2016.[41]

    Presidential preference

    See also: Presidential election in Arizona, 2016

    Republican Party John McCain

    See also: Republicans and their declared positions on Donald Trump and Republican reactions to 2005 Trump tape
    • On October 8, 2016, McCain withdrew his support for Trump after The Washington Post released a 2005 video of Trump making comments about women that were described as "extremely lewd."[42] McCain said that he would not vote for Trump or for Clinton. His full statement appears below:
    “ In addition to my well known differences with Donald Trump on public policy issues, I have raised questions about his character after his comments on Prisoners of War, the Khan Gold Star family, Judge Curiel and earlier inappropriate comments about women. Just this week, he made outrageous statements about the innocent men in the Central Park Five case.

    As I said yesterday, there are no excuses for Donald Trump’s offensive and demeaning comments in the just released video; no woman should ever be victimized by this kind of inappropriate behavior. He alone bears the burden of his conduct and alone should suffer the consequences.

    I have wanted to support the candidate our party nominated. He was not my choice, but as a past nominee, I thought it was important I respect the fact that Donald Trump won a majority of the delegates by the rules our party set. I thought I owed his supporters that deference.

    But Donald Trump’s behavior this week, concluding with the disclosure of his demeaning comments about women and his boasts about sexual assaults, make it impossible to continue to offer even conditional support for his candidacy. Cindy, with her strong background in human rights and respect for women fully agrees with me on this.

    Cindy and I will not vote for Donald Trump. I have never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate and we will not vote for Hillary Clinton. We will write in the name of some good conservative Republican who is qualified to be President.[34]

    		”
    —Sen. John McCain[43]
    • On May 5, 2016, McCain said, “I’ve always said I would support the nominee of the party. It’s the party of Ronald Reagan and Teddy Roosevelt. … I believe that four years of Hillary Clinton will be a disaster for this nation as far as national security is concerned. … I have strong disagreements with Mr. Trump on a number of issues." When asked if he would endorse Trump, McCain said, “I’m not clear, I’ll have to get out the dictionary. I’m telling you: I’ll be supporting the nominee.”[44]

    McCain's relationship with Trump

    On August 2, 2016, Trump told the media that he was not going to endorse Sen. John McCain in his primary race. Trump's decision came days after McCain criticized Trump for comments he made about Khizr and Ghazala Khan, the Muslim American parents of Army Captain Humayun Khan. Humayun Kahn was killed while serving in Iraq. Khizr and Ghazala Khan criticized Trump during their speech at the Democratic National Convention. McCain said of Trump, "In recent days, Donald Trump disparaged a fallen soldier’s parents. He has suggested that the likes of their son should not be allowed in the United States — to say nothing of entering its service. I cannot emphasize enough how deeply I disagree with Mr. Trump’s statement. I hope Americans understand that the remarks do not represent the views of our Republican Party, its officers, or candidates."[45]

    Trump ultimately endorsed McCain on August 5, 2016, three days after his initial refusal to back him. Trump said of McCain, "And while I'm at it, I hold in the highest esteem Sen. John McCain for his service to our country in uniform and in public office, and I fully support and endorse his re-election."[46]

    Trump's criticism of McCain's status as a war hero

    In July 2015, after Trump held a rally in Arizona where he discussed immigration, Sen. John McCain called the attendees "crazies." Trump responded by calling McCain a "dummy" on Twitter.[47][48]

    While speaking at the Family Leadership Summit in Ames, Iowa, on July 18, Frank Luntz asked Trump if calling McCain a "dummy" was appropriate. Trump responded by criticizing McCain's status as a war hero. Trump said, "He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren't captured. ...Perhaps he's a war hero, but right now he's said some very bad things about a lot of people."[49][48]

    Trump later said that he called McCain a war hero four times, adding, "people choose selective pieces [to report]." PolitiFact called his statement "Mostly False." PolitiFact's Linda Qiu explained, "Trump literally said McCain is a hero five times, but never without caveats. Once, he added 'perhaps, I believe' before conceding the point. Twice, he was interrupted. And the last two times, Trump said, 'He is a war hero because he was captured.' In other words, Trump also chose 'selective pieces' and misquoted himself."[50]

    The Huffington Post reported on July 18 that, in an effort to clarify his comments, Trump said, "If a person is captured, they're a hero as far as I'm concerned. But you have to do other things also. I don't like the job John McCain is doing in the Senate. He's not taking care of our veterans."[51]

    Fox News then reported on July 21 that "Trump appeared to back off some of his comments Monday, telling Fox News' Bill O'Reilly that 'if there was a misunderstanding, I would totally take that back.' However, Trump also said he 'used to like [McCain] a lot. I supported him ... but I would love to see him do a much better job taking care of the veterans.'"[52]

    Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick

    See also: Endorsements for Hillary Clinton

    In November 2015, Kirkpatrick endorsed Hillary Clinton for president.[53]

    During an interview on August 3, 2016, Kirkpatrick, was asked whether she thought Clinton was trustworthy. Kirkpatrick did not directly address the question, saying, "Oh, I support Hillary. I mean, I've taken a public stance on that, and I think she's the most qualified to lead this country. Look, there's a lot going on. She has the experience and the knowledge to be president of the United States."[54]

    Endorsements

    Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick

    • Former Rep. Ron Barber (Ariz.) - “Ann is all Arizona. We can always count on her to do what’s right, to stand up for what she believes in, and to represent every inch of our state with integrity. She’s just what we need in the U.S. Senate.”[55]
    • Former Rep. Harry Mitchell (Ariz.) - “Ann is devoted to our state. She’s tough, fearless, and she will work relentlessly for each and every one of us. I am proud to call her my friend, and I look forward to her service in the United States Senate.”[55]
    • EMILY's List - "Ann Kirkpatrick has always put the needs of Arizonans first – cutting through gridlock to create jobs, advocating for veterans, and championing policies that give women and families a fair shot."[57]
    • Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee - "Throughout her career Ann Kirkpatrick has built a reputation as a common-sense leader who works across the aisle to fight for Arizona families, and today we are proud to endorse her in Arizona’s Senate race."[58]
    • Planned Parenthood - Planned Parenthood Action Fund President Cecile Richards said in a statement, "It’s time that all Arizona women had someone like Ann in their corner, standing strong for reproductive freedom. Arizonans are tired of John McCain ... [who has] voted to block patients from care at Planned Parenthood six times and voted against nearly every single women's health initiative for over two decades."[60]
    • Former U.S. Sen. Dennis DeConcini (Ariz.) - “I support Ann because our state deserves a full-time Arizona senator,” said DeConcini, who represented the Grand Canyon State for three terms. “I have always respected Ann for her dedication to service, her record of bipartisan accomplishments and her profound love for Arizona. Ann is what Arizona needs in the Senate.”[61]
    • Former Arizona Gov. Rose Mofford[62]

    Republican Party John McCain

    • Arizona Governor Doug Ducey - "History will count John McCain as one of the most fearless leaders of our generation and a genuine Arizona hero. A man who always puts service above self, John McCain is a revered fighter and a fierce advocate for Arizona."[63]
    • Donald Trump - "And while I'm at it, I hold in the highest esteem Sen. John McCain for his service to our country in uniform and in public office, and I fully support and endorse his re-election."[46]
    • Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore - “I’m proud to endorse a true American hero, Senator John McCain, for re-election. Senator McCain’s leadership on national security issues, his tireless work to eliminate government waste, and his steadfast defense of Second Amendment rights are all good reasons for card-carrying conservatives like me to support him. The 2016 Senate elections will have a profound impact on America, and Republicans cannot afford to lose the Senate seat that has long been held by conservatives Barry Goldwater and John McCain. I am convinced that Senator McCain is the only Republican who can hold this seat. It’s time for conservatives and Republicans to unite, and time to re-elect Senator John McCain.”[65]
    • Council of Citizens Against Government Waste Chairman Tom Schatz - “John McCain is one of the few senators who possesses a proven track record of fighting for taxpayers not only when it is easy, but also when it is challenging. At the dawn of a new presidency, it is imperative that John McCain remain as an indispensable leader in the Senate. There is no one else in Arizona – and few across the country – who is such a determined, consistent, and dedicated fiscal conservative.”[65]
    • National Right to Life President Carol Tobias - “All voters who are concerned with the right to life and with the protection of the most vulnerable members of the human family should vote to return John McCain to the U.S. Senate, so that he can continue to work to advance vital pro-life public policies.”[65]
    • President of the Family Research Council Tony Perkins - “As Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, John McCain has worked tirelessly to defend religious liberty. I know it because I have worked with him, and he has made religious liberty a top priority.”[65]
    • Rep. Chris Smith, chairman of the House Pro-Life Caucus - “John McCain and I have served together since he was first elected to the House in 1982. Senator McCain has been a trusted ally in the pro-life cause and I’m glad we have him fighting for pro-life values in the Senate.”[65]
    • Susan B. Anthony List President Marjorie Dannenfelser - “Senator McCain is a steady and unwavering friend to unborn children and their mothers and we are proud to have him on the side of life. He is a good listener, a strategic thinker, and a helpful ally in our fight to advance the right to life and protect the conscience rights of pro-life Americans.”[65]
    • Former Arizona Governor Fife Symington[65]
    • Former Arizona Governor Jane Dee Hull[65]
    • Arizona Police Association[65]
    • Arizona State Troopers Association[65]
    • U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce[65]
    • Arizona Right to Life[65]
    • National Federation of Independent Business[65]
    • National Border Patrol Council[65]
    • U.S. Chamber of Commerce[65]
    • Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry[65]
    • More than 50 retired military leaders[66]

    Defeated candidate

    Republican Party Kelli Ward

    • Conservative radio host Mark Levin[67]
    • Rep. Thomas Massie - “We need Dr. Ward in the U.S. Senate to stand with Rand Paul and Mike Lee. Her insights from the real world as a mother, military wife, and physician will be an invaluable addition in the fight against career politicians to reduce spending, reverse our national debt, repeal Obamacare, and return to a responsible foreign policy. We can trust Dr. Ward to be ‘bold, fresh, and fearless’ in the U.S. Senate because of what she’s already done as a State Senator--standing up to the establishment in both parties against Medicaid expansion, fighting to reform welfare and defending Arizona’s sovereignty against unconstitutional federal education standards, gun control measures, and warrantless wiretapping of personal cell phone records without a warrant. The founding fathers sought to limit the federal government and preserve the power of the states in the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution. Dr. Kelli Ward is one of the few who really gets it.”[68]
    • Rep. Louie Gohmert - "On August 30th, the prescription that has the best chance of curtailing suffering at home and abroad from the McCain wrongheaded, misguided, heavy-handed judgment is to vote for Dr. Kelli Ward to be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. People of the world and the politically non-establishment citizens of the U.S. are praying that the people of Arizona will say, “enough is enough; please come home, John McCain, take a rest, let Arizona, the nation and world recover.”[69]
    • Former Rep. Ron Paul - “As a physician, you have seen first-hand how ObamaCare has reduced our liberties in just a few short years. During your time as state senator, you have fought to reduce the size of government and restore the liberties of Arizonans. We need to elect more people into the U.S. Senate to stand alongside my son, Rand Paul. Because of your dedication to smaller government and restoring more of our personal liberties, I am proud to endorse your campaign for the U.S. Senate.”[70]
    • Conservative activist Phyllis Schlafly - "I wholeheartedly endorse Dr. Kelli Ward for U.S. Senator from Arizona.”[71]
    • Rep. Jim Bridenstine - “Dr. Kelli Ward is a proven conservative leader. As a military wife and physician, she knows what it will take to rebuild our military and hold the VA accountable. As a former Navy pilot and combat veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, I am proud to endorse Dr. Kelli Ward for the United States Senate.”[72]
    • Conservative radio host Laura Ingraham - “This is a woman who was in the ER, an ER doctor with an incredible medical career, who… wants to make a difference, she is a conservative… [a] great person and it takes a lot of guts to be doing what she is. I think it is time for a change in Arizona, and I am going to endorse you Kelli.”[73]

    Polls

    2016

    Arizona Senate - John McCain vs. Ann Kirkpatrick
    Poll Republican Party John McCain Democratic Party Ann KirkpatrickMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Emerson College
    October 2-4, 2016    		 52%36%+/-3.9600
    NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist
    September 6-8, 2016    		 57%38%+/-3.8649
    CNN/ORC
    August 18-23, 2016    		 52%39%+/-3.5809
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

    Campaign ads

    Republican Party John McCain

    Support

    U.S. Chamber of Commerce ad supporting McCain
    "Protect" - A Secure Arizona ad supporting McCain, released January 2016
    McCain ad attacking Kirkpatrick for supporting Obamacare
    "Fighting for Arizona Jobs" - McCain ad released May 2016
    "Fighter" - U.S. Chamber of Commerce ad supporting McCain, released June 2016
    "Bad Medicine" - McCain ad attacking Kirkpatrick, released July 2016
    "John McCain is Making America Stronger and Safer" - McCain ad released August 2016
    "Service" - Arizona Grassroots Action ad supporting McCain, released August 2016
    "Border Patrol Union Endorses John McCain" - Ad released August 2016
    "Por Arizona" - Spanish McCain campaign ad released September 2016

    Opposition

    "Trumped" - Kirkpatrick ad attacking McCain for his support of Trump, released August 2016
    "Time For Change: Kelli Ward Standing With Us" - Ad opposing John McCain in the primary
    "Pensábamos Que Sabíamos" - Kirkpatrick ad opposing John McCain

    Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick

    Support

    "It's Time" - Kirkpatrick's first ad, released July 2016
    "Washington is a mess" - Kirkpatrick's second TV ad, released August 2016
    "Stand up to Trump" - Kirkpatrick campaign ad tying McCain to Trump, released October 2016

    Opposition

    U.S. Chamber of Commerce ad opposing Kirkpatrick
    "Ann Kirkpatrick Turned Her Back on Arizona" - McCain ad opposing Kirkpatrick

    Presidential impact

    Presidential elections have a significant impact on congressional elections, the most obvious of which is increased voter interest and participation. In the last two decades, presidential elections have led to roughly 15 to 20 percent higher turnout rates than in the corresponding midterm elections.[74] The following chart shows the disparity between voter turnout in presidential elections and midterms.

    Voter turnout comparison.JPG

    In the past decade, presidential elections have benefited the Democratic Party, while midterms have helped Republicans. The Democratic Party gained an average of 5 Senate seats in the last two presidential elections, and the Republican Party picked up an average of 7.5 seats in the last two midterms.[75] The fact that 2016 was a presidential election cycle was a cause of increased Republican vulnerability in the Senate.

    Election history

    2012

    See also: United States Senate elections in Arizona, 2012

    On November 6, 2012, Jeff Flake won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Richard Carmona (D), Marc Victor (L) and Ian Gilyeat (I) in the general election.

    U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Flake 49.2% 1,104,457
         Democratic Richard Carmona 46.2% 1,036,542
         Libertarian Marc Victor 4.6% 102,109
         Independent Steven Watts (Write-in) 0% 290
         Independent Don Manspeaker (Write-in) 0% 24
    Total Votes 2,243,422
    Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

    2010

    On November 2, 2010, John McCain won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Rodney Glassman (D), David Nolan (L), Jerry Joslyn (G) and a handful of write-in candidates in the general election.[76]

    U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2010
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain incumbent 58.9% 1,005,615
         Democratic Rodney Glassman 34.7% 592,011
         Libertarian David Nolan 4.7% 80,097
         Green Jerry Joslyn 1.4% 24,603
         Write-in Ian Gilyeat 0.3% 5,938
         Write-in Loyd Ellis 0% 160
         Write-in Santos Chavez 0% 39
         Write-in Sydney Dudikoff 0% 14
         Write-in Ray Caplette 0% 7
    Total Votes 1,708,484

    Important dates and deadlines

    See also: Arizona elections, 2016

    The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Arizona in 2016.

    Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016
    Deadline Event type Event description
    September 24, 2015 Ballot access First day to file new party petitions for the presidential preference primary
    October 24, 2015 Ballot access Last day to file new party petitions for the presidential preference primary
    November 13, 2015 Ballot access First day to file as a candidate for the presidential preference primary
    December 14, 2015 Ballot access Last day to file as a candidate for the presidential preference primary
    January 1 to February 1, 2016 Campaign finance January 31 report due (covering November 25, 2014, to December 31, 2015)
    March 3, 2016 Ballot access Deadline for filing new party petitions for the general election
    March 22, 2016 Election date Presidential preference primary
    May 2, 2016 Ballot access First day for filing candidate nomination petitions
    June 1, 2016 Ballot access Last day for filing candidate nomination petitions
    June 1 to June 30, 2016 Campaign finance June 30 report due (covering January 1 to May 31, 2016)
    July 21, 2016 Ballot access Deadline for filing as a write-in candidate for the primary election
    August 19 to August 26, 2016 Campaign finance Pre-primary report due (covering June 1 to August 18, 2016)
    August 30, 2016 Election date Primary election
    September 29, 2016 Ballot access Deadline for filing as a write-in candidate for the general election
    September 20 to September 29, 2016 Campaign finance Post-primary report due (covering August 19 to September 19, 2016)
    October 28 to November 4, 2016 Campaign finance Pre-general report due (covering September 20 to October 27, 2016)
    November 8, 2016 Election date General election
    November 29 to December 8, 2016 Campaign finance Post-general report due (covering October 28 to November 28, 2016)
    Source: Arizona Secretary of State, "Elections Calendar & Upcoming Events," accessed June 5, 2015

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 Senate Race Ratings," accessed October 19, 2016
    2. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," accessed October 19, 2016
    3. ↑ Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "Senate Ratings," accessed October 19, 2016
    4. ↑ The Los Angeles Times, "As John McCain fights for reelection, the Trump problem cuts two ways — both against him," accessed August 29, 2016
    5. ↑ Senate.gov, "Ernest McFarland," accessed August 29, 2016
    6. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 19, 2024
    7. ↑ Citizens Clean Elections Commission, "Primary Election," accessed July 19, 2024
    8. ↑ Arizona State Legislature, "Arizona Revised Statutes 16-467," accessed July 19 2024
    9. ↑ Candidates are listed by party and alphabetically within each party.
    10. ↑ Ann Kirkpatrick for U.S. Senate, "Ann Kirkpatrick: Putting Arizona First," accessed May 27, 2015
    11. ↑ The Hill, "McCain running for reelection," April 7, 2015
    12. ↑ Havasunews.com, "Havasu's Kelli Ward confirms Senate challenge against John McCain," July 14, 2015
    13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 Arizona Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Candidates," accessed June 2, 2016
    14. ↑ Lennie Clark for Senate, "Home," accessed March 25, 2016
    15. ↑ Tea Party Scottsdale, "Alex Meluskey to Seek U.S. Senate Seat in Arizona," February 18, 2015
    16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 The Arizona Republic, "Kirkpatrick, McCain to face off in Republic/Arizona PBS debate," accessed October 4, 2016
    17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 Politico, "In fight of his political life, McCain hammers Obamacare," accessed October 5, 2016
    18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 ABC 15 Arizona, "Healthcare prices soaring, Affordable Care Act a major campaign issue in AZ," accessed October 5, 2016
    19. ↑ Arizona Daily Star, "Kirkpatrick, Trump giving McCain his toughest race," accessed October 4, 2016
    20. ↑ The Wall Street Journal, "Aetna to Drop Some Affordable Care Act Markets," accessed October 5, 2016
    21. ↑ The Washington Times, "Blue Cross to keep health exchanges in Pinal County," accessed October 5, 2016
    22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 McCain.Senate.gov, "Mccain & Perdue Introduce Bill To Fully Repeal & Replace Obamacare," accessed October 5, 2016
    23. ↑ Congress.gov, "S.2519," accessed October 5, 2016
    24. ↑ Twitter, "John McCain," accessed October 5, 2016
    25. ↑ The Arizona Republic, "Fact Check: Sen. John McCain correct on number of Arizona 'Obamacare' insurers," accessed October 5, 2016
    26. ↑ Cronkite News/ Arizona PBS, "McCain seeks repeal of affordable health-care plan," accessed October 5, 2016
    27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 The Arizona Republic, "McCain: Why Congress must kill the Iran nuke deal," accessed October 5, 2016
    28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 The Arizona Republic, "Kirkpatrick: Why our Iran nuclear deal must survive," accessed October 5, 2016
    29. ↑ Clerk.House.gov, "On Motion to Concur in Senate Amendment With Amendment," accessed October 5, 2016
    30. ↑ Clerk.House.gov Clerk.House.gov, "Concurring in portion of senate amendment preceding title II," accessed October 5, 2016
    31. ↑ Senate.gov, "On Passage of the Bill (H.R. 1314 As Amended)," accessed October 5, 2016
    32. ↑ Daily Kos, "AZ-Sen: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) Fights Back Against Fast Tracking The TPP," accessed October 5, 2016
    33. ↑ The Hill, "McCain makes case for Congress to pass Pacific trade deal," accessed October 5, 2016
    34. ↑ 34.0 34.1 34.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
    35. ↑ Salon, "Arizona’s Lady Trump: Kelli Ward is running a Donald-esque primary challenge to John McCain — and she just might win," accessed August 30, 2016
    36. ↑ Twitter, "Kelli Ward," accessed August 29, 2016
    37. ↑ NPR, "Sen. John McCain Faces Toughest Re-Election Yet," accessed August 29, 2016
    38. ↑ 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.3 Politico, "McCain's opponent: He might die in office," accessed August 29, 2016
    39. ↑ The Arizona Republic, "Can a candidate run for both the Senate and the House at the same time?" accessed August 30, 2016
    40. ↑ 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.4 40.5 CNN, "McCain's GOP Senate challenger says he's too old for the job," accessed August 29, 2016
    41. ↑ The Arizona Republic, "Kelli Ward criticized for attack on John McCain's age," accessed August 29, 2016
    42. ↑ The Washington Post, "Trump recorded having extremely lewd conversation about women in 2005," October 8, 2016
    43. ↑ McCain.Senate.gov, "Statement By Senator John Mccain Withdrawing Support Of Donald Trump," accessed October 9, 2016
    44. ↑ KTAR.com, "Sen. John McCain, two other senators will support Donald Trump as GOP nominee," accessed May 6, 2016
    45. ↑ The Washington Post, "Broad array of military luminaries condemn Trump over attacks on Khan family," August 1, 2016
    46. ↑ 46.0 46.1 CNN, "Trump endorses Paul Ryan, John McCain," August 6, 2016
    47. ↑ Fox News, "Trump won't apologize to McCain, suggests backlash led by trailing GOP rivals," accessed October 23, 2015
    48. ↑ 48.0 48.1 Fox News, "Trump won't apologize to McCain, suggests backlash led by trailing GOP rivals," accessed October 14, 2015
    49. ↑ The Huffington Post, "Donald Trump On John McCain's War Record: 'I Like People Who Weren't Captured,'" accessed October 14, 2015
    50. ↑ PolitiFact, "Trump: I called McCain a 'hero' four times," accessed October 23, 2015
    51. ↑ Huffington Post, "Here's How Donald Trump Defended What He Said About John McCain," accessed October 14, 2015
    52. ↑ Fox News, "Des Moines Register calls on Trump to drop out of 2016 race," accessed October 20, 2015
    53. ↑ ABC15, "Clinton backed by 4 of 9 Arizona Democratic superdelegates," November 13, 2015
    54. ↑ The Arizona Republic, "Do Ann Kirkpatrick, John McCain trust their parties' nominees?" accessed October 7, 2016
    55. ↑ 55.0 55.1 Ann Kirkpatrick for U.S. Senate, "Mitchell And Barber Endorse Kirkpatrick," June 4, 2015
    56. ↑ Ann Kirkpatrick for U.S. Senate, "Pastor Endorses Kirkpatrick," June 25, 2015
    57. ↑ Az Central, "Ann Kirkpatrick gets EMILY's List boost in Senate race," September 22, 2015
    58. ↑ Az Central, "Ann Kirkpatrick endorsed by Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee," October 7, 2015
    59. ↑ Daily Kos, "IL, AZ-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand (D. NY) Helps These Dems Fight Back Against NRSC's Smear Campaign," accessed August 30, 2016
    60. ↑ Phoenix New Times, "Planned Parenthood Endorses Ann Kirkpatrick, Slams John McCain's Record on Women's Health," accessed August 30, 2016
    61. ↑ Ann Kirkpatrick for U.S. Senate, "DeConcini endorses Kirkpatrick," accessed August 30, 2016
    62. ↑ Ann Kirkpatrick for U.S. Senate, "Mofford endorses Kirkpatrick," accessed August 30, 2016
    63. ↑ AZ Central, "Gov. Doug Ducey endorses Sen. John McCain in GOP primary," July 14, 2016
    64. ↑ JohnMcCain.com, "More Than 100 Arizona Leaders Endorse John McCain," accessed August 29, 2016
    65. ↑ 65.00 65.01 65.02 65.03 65.04 65.05 65.06 65.07 65.08 65.09 65.10 65.11 65.12 65.13 65.14 65.15 65.16 65.17 65.18 65.19 65.20 65.21 JohnMcCain.com, "Conservative Leaders Endorse John McCain," accessed August 29, 2016
    66. ↑ JohnMcCain.com, "Retired Military Leaders Endorse John McCain," accessed August 29, 2016
    67. ↑ Sonoran Alliance, "BREAKING: Kelli Ward Picks Up Endorsement From Mark Levin," April 29, 2016
    68. ↑ KelliWard.com, "Congressman Massie Endorses Ward," accessed August 29, 2016
    69. ↑ KelliWard.com, "Rep. Louie Gohmert: Time to Say Thank You and Goodbye to McCain," accessed August 29, 2016
    70. ↑ KelliWard.com, "Ron Paul Endorses Kelli Ward in AZ Senate Race," accessed August 29, 2016
    71. ↑ KelliWard.com, "Phyllis Schlafly Endorses Kelli Ward," accessed August 29, 2016
    72. ↑ KelliWard.com, "Ward Snags National Security Endorsements," accessed August 29, 2016
    73. ↑ Breitbart, "Laura Ingraham And Right Wing News Join Growing List Of Kelli Ward Endorsements," accessed August 29, 2016
    74. ↑ United States Election Project, "Voter Turnout," accessed September 6, 2015
    75. ↑ United States Senate, "Party Division in the Senate, 1789-Present," accessed September 6, 2015
    76. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
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    Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress
    Senators
    Ruben Gallego (D)
    Mark Kelly (D)
    Representatives
    District 1
    District 2
    Eli Crane (R)
    District 3
    District 4
    District 5
    District 6
    District 7
    Vacant
    District 8
    District 9
    Republican Party (6)
    Democratic Party (4)
    Vacancies (1)

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