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United States Senate special election in Arizona, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)

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U.S. Senate, Arizona
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 6, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Martha McSally (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
U.S. Senate, Arizona
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th
Arizona elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

Incumbent Martha McSally defeated Daniel McCarthy and write-in candidate Sean Lyons in the Republican special primary election for U.S. Senate in Arizona on August 4, 2020. McSally received 75% of the vote to McCarthy's 25%.[1]

The special election was called to fill the rest of the 2017-2023 term that John McCain (R) was elected to in 2016. McCain died of cancer on August 25, 2018.[2] Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed Jon Kyl (R) to the seat in 2018, and Kyl resigned later that year. Ducey then appointed McSally.[3]

Prior to her appointment, McSally ran for Senate in 2018 and lost to Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47.6% to 50%. McSally served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019. She highlighted her military service and said she would work to protect coverage for people with pre-existing conditions, lower prescription drug costs, and hold China accountable for the COVID-19 pandemic. McSally's campaign ads said Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly supported healthcare policy that would take away people's choice of doctors and that he wouldn't hold China accountable.[4]

McCarthy emphasized his experience as a businessman. He said he was a constitutionalist who would not support red flag laws, which authorize family members, household members, and law enforcement officers to petition a court to restrict an individual's access to firearms. He criticized McSally on the issue. In August 2019, McSally said she would be open to red flag laws.[5] McCarthy also said McSally wouldn't defeat Kelly in November, citing McSally's 2018 loss to Sinema.[6]

President Donald Trump (R) endorsed McSally in June of 2019.[7]

As of July 14, 2020, election forecasters expected the general election to be competitive.

McCarthy filled out Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Click here to read his responses.

This page focuses on Arizona's United States Senate Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the state's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Special Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Martha McSally
Martha McSally
 
75.2
 
551,119
Image of Daniel McCarthy
Daniel McCarthy Candidate Connection
 
24.8
 
181,511
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Sean Lyons (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
210

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 732,840
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[8] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Daniel McCarthy

Image of Daniel McCarthy

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Daniel McCarthy was born on April 2nd, 1985, in Watertown, New York. Daniel is an American businessman who lives in Glendale, Arizona with his wife Elexsis and their four children. Daniel grew up in Watertown, a small city neighboring Fort Drum Army Base. Watertown is a lake effect snow belt city. Growing up Daniel was a typical American kid who enjoyed his church, fishing, friends, sports (particularly wrestling) and family. Daniel's brother, Michael, was stationed at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. Daniel often visited Michael in Arizona starting at the young age of 13. He fell in love with Arizona and relocated, landing in the West Valley. Daniel and Lexi became a positive disruption in the real estate world, they merged their brokerage into West USA Realty in 2010, eventually franchising the concept and opening 40 offices."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

Protect the Bill of Rights - No Red Flag Laws

Protect Businesses and Jobs - Stop unconstitutional shutdowns

Protect Life

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Arizona in 2020.

Martha McSally

Image of Martha McSally

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office: 

Biography:  McSally graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy and served in the Air Force for 26 years before retiring in 2010 as a colonel. She was the first woman fighter pilot to fly in combat. She earned a master's degree in public policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a master's degree in strategic studies from the U.S. Air War College. McSally was a professor of national security studies at the George C. Marshall Center in Germany. She ran for U.S. Senate in 2018, losing to Kyrsten Sinema (D). Gov. Doug Ducey (R) appointed McSally to the seat formerly held by John McCain (R) after Jon Kyl (R), the initial appointee, resigned in 2018.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

McSally's campaign website said she "is a decorated veteran and proven leader who has what it takes to get things done in D.C. She answered our nation's call on the battlefield, and she is prepared to answer it again now."

McSally's campaign ads said she would work to protect people with pre-existing conditions, make prescription drugs safe and affordable, and hold China accountable for the COVID-19 pandemic. 

McSally's campaign website said, "There's always more that unites us than divides us."

Show sources

Sources: Martha McSally's 2020 campaign website, "Home," accessed July 15, 2020; YouTube, "Martha McSally," accessed July 15, 2020; Martha McSally's 2020 campaign website, "About," accessed July 15, 2020; Vote Smart, "Martha McSally's Biography," accessed July 15, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Arizona in 2020.


Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[9] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[10] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Martha McSally Republican Party $73,553,299 $74,361,789 $115,304 As of December 31, 2020
Sean Lyons Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Daniel McCarthy Republican Party $607,745 $607,665 $80 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Primaries in Arizona

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Arizona utilizes a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[11][12][13]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[14]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[15][16][17]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Arizona, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Election history

2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema defeated Martha McSally and Angela Green in the general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kyrsten Sinema
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
 
50.0
 
1,191,100
Image of Martha McSally
Martha McSally (R)
 
47.6
 
1,135,200
Image of Angela Green
Angela Green (G)
 
2.4
 
57,442
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
566

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 2,384,308
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McCain Incumbent 53.7% 1,359,267
     Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 1,031,245
     Green Gary Swing 5.5% 138,634
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 1,584
Total Votes 2,530,730
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2012

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Flake 49.2% 1,104,457
     Democratic Richard Carmona 46.2% 1,036,542
     Libertarian Marc Victor 4.6% 102,109
     Independent Steven Watts (Write-in) 0% 290
     Independent Don Manspeaker (Write-in) 0% 24
Total Votes 2,243,422
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Special elections to the 116th Congress

See also: Special elections to the 116th United States Congress (2019-2020)

Eight special elections for the U.S. House of Representatives occurred:

Two special election for the U.S. Senate occurred:

Three of these races resulted in partisan flips. The special elections for U.S. Senate in Arizona and Georgia resulted in Democratic gains, and the special election for California's 25th Congressional District resulted in a Republican gain.

Special elections to Congress occur when a legislator resigns, dies, or is removed from office. Depending on the specific state laws governing vacancies, a state can either hold an election within the same calendar year or wait until the next regularly scheduled election.

Results

House

Results of special elections to the 116th Congress (House)
Race Election date Incumbent Winner Election MOV Previous election MOV 2016 Presidential election MOV[18]
Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District May 21, 2019 Republican Party Tom Marino Republican Party Fred Keller R+36 R+32 R+37
North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District September 10, 2019 Republican Party Walter Jones[19] Republican Party Greg Murphy R+24 R+100 R+24
North Carolina's 9th Congressional District[20] September 10, 2019 Republican Party Robert Pittenger Republican Party Dan Bishop R+2 R+16 R+11
Maryland's 7th Congressional District April 28, 2020 Democratic Party Elijah Cummings Democratic Party Kweisi Mfume D+49 D+55 D+55
California's 25th Congressional District May 12, 2020 Democratic Party Katie Hill Republican Party Mike Garcia R+12 D+9 D+7
Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District May 12, 2020 Republican Party Sean Duffy Republican Party Tom Tiffany R+14 R+21 R+20
New York's 27th Congressional District June 23, 2020 Republican Party Chris Collins Republican Party Christopher Jacobs R+5 R+0.3 R+25
Georgia's 5th Congressional District December 1, 2020 Democratic Party John Lewis Democratic Party Kwanza Hall D+8[21] D+100 D+73

Senate

Results of special elections to the 116th Congress (Senate)
Race Election date Incumbent Winner Election MOV Previous election MOV 2016 Presidential election MOV
U.S. Senate in Arizona November 3, 2020 Republican Party Martha McSally[22] Democratic Party Mark Kelly D+3 D+2 R+4
U.S. Senate in Georgia January 5, 2021 (runoff) Republican Party Kelly Loeffler[23] Democratic Party Raphael Warnock D+2.1 R+14 R+5

Historical data

Special elections, 2013-2022

From 2013 to 2022, 67 special elections to the United States Congress were called during the 113th through 117th Congresses. During that time, special elections were called for 23 seats vacated by Democrats and 44 vacated by Republicans.

The table below details how many congressional seats changed parties as the result of a special election between 2013 and 2022. The numbers on the left side of the table reflect how many vacant seats were originally held by each party, while the numbers on the right side of the table show how many vacant seats each party won in special elections.

Congressional special election vacancies and results, 113th Congress to 117th Congress
Congress Total elections held Vacancies before elections Seats held after elections Net change
Democratic Party Democrats Republican Party Republicans Democratic Party Democrats Republican Party Republicans
117th Congress 17 7 10 7 10 No change
116th Congress 10 3 7 4 6 +1D, -1R
115th Congress 17 4 13 8 9 +4 D, -4 R
114th Congress 7 2 5 2 5 No change
113th Congress 16 7 9 7 9 No change
Averages 13 4 8 5 7 N/A


U.S. Senate special election partisan change from special elections, 113th Congress to 117th Congress
Party As of special election After special election
Democratic Party Democrats 5 8
Republican Party Republicans 7 4
Total 12 12
U.S. House special election partisan change from special elections, 113th Congress to 117th Congress
Party As of special election After special election
Democratic Party Democrats 18 20
Republican Party Republicans 37 35
Total 55 55


Special elections, 1986-2012

The table below presents the results of special elections to Congress from 1986 to 2012. Contact Ballotpedia at editor@ballotpedia.org for access to earlier data.

Results of special elections to Congress (1986-2012)
Election cycle Total special elections U.S. House elections Seats changing partisan control U.S. Senate elections Seats changing partisan control
2011-2012 11 11 None None None
2009-2010 15 10 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) 5 2 (all Republican gains)
2007-2008 14 12 3 (2 Republican gains; 1 Democratic gain) 2 None
2005-2006 12 12 3 (all Democratic gains) None None
2003-2004 6 6 None None None
2001-2002 6 5 2 (all Democratic gains) 1 1 (Republican gain)
1999-2000 9 8 1 (Republican gain) 1 1 (Democratic gain)
1997-1998 3 3 None None None
1995-1996 11 9 1 (Republican gain) 2 1 (Democratic gain)
1993-1994 9 6 1 (Republican gain) 3 3 (all Republican gains)
1991-1992 10 7 2 (all Republican gains) 3 1 (Democratic gain)
1989-1990 10 8 1 (Democratic gain) 2 None
1987-1988 12 12 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) None None
1985-1986 8 8 1 (Republican gain) None None
Total 136 117 21 (11 Democratic gains; 10 Republican gains) 19 9 (6 Republican gains; 3 Democratic gains)


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ The New York Times, "Arizona U.S. Senate Special Primary Election Results," accessed August 4, 2020
  2. ↑ Arizona Central, "Former U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl will be John McCain's successor in the U.S. Senate," September 4, 2018
  3. ↑ AZCentral, "Martha McSally will be appointed to John McCain's Senate seat," December 18, 2018
  4. ↑ YouTube, "Martha McSally," accessed July 15, 2020
  5. ↑ KJZZ, "Arizona Sen. Martha McSally Talks Water, Gun Violence, China And Trump," August 29, 2019
  6. ↑ Twitter," "Alexander Tin on July 7, 2020," accessed July 15, 2020
  7. ↑ The Hill, "Trump endorses McSally in Arizona Senate race," June 25, 2019
  8. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  9. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  10. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  11. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 19, 2024
  12. ↑ Citizens Clean Elections Commission, "Primary Election," accessed July 19, 2024
  13. ↑ Arizona State Legislature, "Arizona Revised Statutes 16-467," accessed July 19 2024
  14. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  15. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  16. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  17. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  18. ↑ Daily Kos, "2008, 2012, & 2016 Presidential Election Results by District," accessed February 1, 2019
  19. ↑ Jones died on February 10, 2019.
  20. ↑ The 9th District was not filled in the 2018 elections due to allegations of electoral fraud. In February 2019, the North Carolina Board of Elections called for a new election to fill the vacant seat.
  21. ↑ This election was between two Democrats
  22. ↑ In December 2018, McSally was appointed to fill the Senate seat previously held by John McCain (R), who passed away in August 2018. Jon Kyl (R) was first appointed to the seat and held it from September 2018 to December 2018. The 2020 special election decided who would serve out the rest of the six-year term McCain was elected to in 2016.
  23. ↑ Isakson announced his resignation effective December 31, 2019. The 2020 special election decided who would serve out the rest of the six-year term Isakson was elected to in 2016.
  24. ↑ Both general election candidates were Republicans.
  25. ↑ This race was unopposed.
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 Both general election candidates were Democrats.
  27. ↑ Lamb won by a margin of 0.4 percentage points.
  28. ↑ Wild won by a margin of 0.2 percentage points.
  29. ↑ The state Board of Elections declined to certify the results of the 2018 election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud.
  30. ↑ Collins won by 0.3 percentage points.
  31. ↑ This special election was called to fill the vacancy left by 2020 Congressman-elect Luke Letlow (R), who died before being sworn in to Congress.
  32. ↑ Runoff MOV between two Republican candidates.
  33. ↑ Runoff MOV between two Democratic candidates.
  34. ↑ Runoff MOV between two Republican candidates.


Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ruben Gallego (D)
Mark Kelly (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (6)
Democratic Party (4)
Vacancies (1)


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