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United States Senate election in Florida (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

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U.S. Senate, Florida
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Bill Nelson (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Florida
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Florida elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Term-limited Gov. Rick Scott defeated Roque De La Fuente in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Florida on August 28, 2018.

Scott had the backing of President Donald Trump, who urged him to run for the seat in September 2017. Trump said during a trip to Florida following Hurricane Irma, "I don’t know what [Scott is] gonna do, but I know that at a certain point it ends for you, and we can’t let it end. So I hope he runs for Senate."[3]

Scott also made a $1.9 million ad buy to run through November and December 2017 highlighting his work to rebuild after Hurricane Irma, fix the Lake Okeechobee dike, and prevent tax increases.[4]

This page focuses on the Republican primary. For an overview of the general election, click here.

Florida voter? Here's what you need to know.
Primary electionAugust 28, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineMay 4, 2018
Registration deadlineJuly 30, 2018
Absentee application deadlineAugust 28, 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeClosed
Early voting deadlineAugust 25, 2018
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Rick Scott defeated Roque De La Fuente in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Florida on August 28, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Florida

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Rick Scott
Rick Scott
 
88.6
 
1,456,187
Image of Roque De La Fuente
Roque De La Fuente
 
11.4
 
187,209

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 1,643,396
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
United States Senate election in Florida, Nelson vs. Scott
Poll Bill Nelson Rick ScottUncertainMargin of ErrorSample Size
Gravis Marketing
February 1-18, 2018		 44%40%16%+/-2.21,978
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Race ratings

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[5]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[6][7][8]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Florida, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Election history

2016

See also: United States Senate election in Florida, 2016

The race for Florida's U.S. Senate seat was one of nine competitive battleground races in 2016 that that helped Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R) defeated U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), Iraq war veteran Paul Stanton (L), and nine independent and write-in candidates in the general election, which took place on November 8, 2016. According to Politico, Rubio was “the first Republican senator from the Sunshine State ever to win reelection in a presidential election year.”[9][10]

Rubio called Murphy "hyper-partisan," "a rubber stamp for, God forbid, a Clinton presidency," and accused him of fabricating his qualifications.[11][12][13][14] Murphy criticized Rubio, saying, "Sen. Rubio has the worst vote attendance record of any Florida senator in nearly 50 years." Murphy's spokeswoman Galia Slayen said, "Marco Rubio is willing to abandon his responsibility to Floridians and hand over our country's national security to Donald Trump, as long as it advances his own political career."[15]

In his victory speech, Rubio said, “[I] hope that I and my colleagues as we return to work in Washington D.C. can set a better example how political discourse should exist in this country. And I know people feel betrayed and you have a right to. Every major institution in our society has failed us — the media, the government, big business, Wall Street, academia — they have all failed us. So people are so frustrated and angry. But we must channel that anger and frustration into something positive. Let it move us forward as energy to confront and solve our challenges and our problems.”[16]

U.S. Senate, Florida General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMarco Rubio Incumbent 52% 4,835,191
     Democratic Patrick Murphy 44.3% 4,122,088
     Libertarian Paul Stanton 2.1% 196,956
     Independent Bruce Nathan 0.6% 52,451
     Independent Tony Khoury 0.5% 45,820
     Independent Steven Machat 0.3% 26,918
     Independent Basil Dalack 0.2% 22,236
     N/A Write-in 0% 160
Total Votes 9,301,820
Source: Florida Division of Elections


U.S. Senate, Florida Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMarco Rubio Incumbent 72% 1,029,830
Carlos Beruff 18.5% 264,427
Dwight Young 6.4% 91,082
Ernie Rivera 3.2% 45,153
Total Votes 1,430,492
Source: Florida Division of Elections
U.S. Senate, Florida Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick Murphy 58.9% 665,985
Alan Grayson 17.7% 199,929
Pam Keith 15.4% 173,919
Roque De La Fuente 5.4% 60,810
Reginald Luster 2.6% 29,138
Total Votes 1,129,781
Source: Florida Division of Elections
U.S. Senate, Florida Libertarian Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Stanton 73.5% 2,946
Augustus Invictus Sol 26.5% 1,063
Total Votes 4,009
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2012

See also: United States Senate elections in Florida, 2012

On November 6, 2012, Bill Nelson won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Connie Mack (R), Bill Gaylor (I), and Chris Borgia (I) in the general election.

U.S. Senate, Florida General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBill Nelson Incumbent 55.2% 4,523,451
     Republican Connie Mack 42.2% 3,458,267
     Independent Bill Gaylor 1.5% 126,079
     Independent Chris Borgia 1% 82,089
     N/A Write-ins 0% 60
Total Votes 8,189,946
Source: Florida Election Watch "U.S. Senator"

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[17][18]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
 FloridaU.S.
Total population:20,244,914316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):53,6253,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:76%73.6%
Black/African American:16.1%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:23.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,507$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[19][20]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.8% 1.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.1% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.0% Republican Party John McCain 48.2% 2.8%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.10% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.09% 5.01%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.847% Democratic Party Al Gore 48.838% 0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Marco Rubio 52.0% Democratic Party Patrick Murphy 44.3% 7.7%
2012 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 55.2% Republican Party Connie Mack 42.2% 13.0%
2010 Republican Party Marco Rubio 48.9% Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 19.2%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 60.3% Republican Party Katherine Harris 38.1% 22.2%
2004 Republican Party Mel Martinez 49.4% Democratic Party Betty Castor 48.3% 1.1%
2000 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 51.0% Republican Party Bill McCollum 46.2% 4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera 48.1% Democratic Party Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein 47.1% 1%
2010 Republican Party Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll 48.9% Democratic Party Alex Sink/Rod Smith 47.7% 1.2%
2006 Republican Party Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp 52.2% Democratic Party Jim Davis/Daryl Jones 45.1% 7.1%
2002 Republican Party Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan 56.0% Democratic Party Bill McBride/Tom Rossin 43.2% 12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2014 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2012 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2010 Republican Party 19 76.0% Democratic Party 6 24.0% R+13
2008 Republican Party 15 60.0% Democratic Party 10 40.0% R+5
2006 Republican Party 16 64.0% Democratic Party 9 36.0% R+7
2004 Republican Party 18 66.7% Democratic Party 7 33.3% R+11
2002 Republican Party 17 66.7% Democratic Party 8 33.3% R+9
2000 Republican Party 15 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. ↑ Politico, "Trump pushes Rick Scott to run for Senate during Irma recovery visit," September 14, 2017
  4. ↑ Politico, "Eyeing U.S. Senate bid, Scott launches $2 million ad buy," October 25, 2017
  5. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  6. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  9. ↑ The New York Times, "Marco Rubio and John McCain Win Primaries in Florida and Arizona," accessed September 2, 2016
  10. ↑ Politico, "How Rubio outdid Trump in Florida and revived his career," accessed November 15, 2016
  11. ↑ Politico, "Rubio: GOP has tough fight ahead to maintain Senate control," accessed August 22, 2016
  12. ↑ CNN, "Ahead of Florida primary, Rubio offers Trump a tepid embrace," accessed September 2, 2016
  13. ↑ CBS Miami, "The Making of Patrick Murphy," June 22, 2016
  14. ↑ Patrick Murphy for Senate, "Press Releases / Setting the Record Straight On Yesterday’s Misleading CBS Miami Report," June 23, 2016
  15. ↑ PolitiFact, "Mostly True: Marco Rubio has worst voting record of any Florida senator in nearly 50 years," accessed September 3, 2016
  16. ↑ Breitbart, "Rubio Wins Reelection Bid — Gives Victory Speech in English and Spanish," accessed November 15, 2016
  17. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  18. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  19. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
  20. ↑ Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018


Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ashley Moody (R)
Rick Scott (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)


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