United States Senate election in Missouri, 2022
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|
| U.S. Senate, Missouri |
|---|
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 29, 2022 |
| Primary: August 2, 2022 General: November 8, 2022 |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Missouri |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th Missouri elections, 2022 U.S. Congress elections, 2022 U.S. Senate elections, 2022 U.S. House elections, 2022 |
Eric Schmitt (R) defeated Trudy Busch Valentine (D), Paul Venable (Constitution Party), and Jonathan Dine (L) in the general election for one of Missouri's U.S. Senate seats on November 8, 2022. Sen. Roy Blunt (R), who first took office in 2011, did not seek re-election.[1]
Busch Valentine, the heiress of the Anheuser-Busch beer company, worked as a nurse.[2] Busch Valentine said she wanted to fight the opioid epidemic, improve access to quality healthcare, and advocate for women's rights.[3] She also criticized the state of politics in Missouri and called it divisive. "Our communities are strong, but our politics are broken. Too often neighbors and families just stop talking to each other, and the politicians in Washington continue to divide us even further," she said.[4] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Busch Valentine cumulatively raised $12.0 million and spent $11.7 million.
Schmitt was appointed attorney general of Missouri in January 2019. He was treasurer of Missouri from 2017 to 2019, and a member of the Missouri State Senate from 2008 to 2016. Schmitt ran on his record as attorney general and the lawsuits he filed against the federal government. Schmitt said, "[I have] taken a blow torch to Biden’s unconstitutional and unlawful policies to protect the America First Agenda." He also said that he was a "proven Conservative [who will] take the fight to the Senate and save our values, our culture, and our country."[5] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the FEC, Schmitt cumulatively raised $5.7 million and spent $5.5 million.
At the time of the election, three independent election forecasters rated the general election as Solid Republican or Safe Republican. Donald Trump (R) won the state in the 2020 presidential election by a 15.4% margin. At the time of the 2022 election, the last time a Democratic candidate won a statewide election in Missouri was in 2012, when U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill and Gov. Jay Nixon (D) both won re-election. Missouri's other U.S. senator, Josh Hawley (R), won the 2018 election by a 5.8% margin.
The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate in 2022. Democrats retained their majority and gained one net seat, with the Senate's post-election partisan balance at 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.
Thirty-five of 100 seats were up for election, including one special election.[6] At the time of the election, Democrats had an effective majority, with the chamber split 50-50 and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) having the tie-breaking vote.[7] Of the seats up for election in 2022, Democrats held 14 and Republicans held 21.
For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:
- United States Senate election in Missouri, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in Missouri, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)
Election news
This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. Senate Missouri
The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. Senate Missouri on November 8, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Eric Schmitt (R) | 55.4 | 1,146,966 | |
| Trudy Busch Valentine (D) | 42.2 | 872,694 | ||
| Jonathan Dine (L) | 1.7 | 34,821 | ||
| Paul Venable (Constitution Party) | 0.7 | 14,608 | ||
| Nathan Mooney (Independent) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 14 | ||
| Steve Price (Independent) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 9 | ||
| Rik Combs (Independent) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 6 | ||
| Gina Bufe (Independent) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 5 | ||
| Theodis Brown Sr. (Independent) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 4 | ||
| David Kirk (Independent) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 3 | ||
| Martin Lindstedt (Independent) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 0 | ||
| Total votes: 2,069,130 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Nicholas Strauss (Independent)
- Ronald Deets (Independent)
- John Wood (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri
The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 2, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Trudy Busch Valentine | 43.2 | 158,957 | |
Lucas Kunce ![]() | 38.3 | 141,203 | ||
Spencer Toder ![]() | 4.7 | 17,465 | ||
Carla Wright ![]() | 3.9 | 14,438 | ||
Gena Ross ![]() | 2.4 | 8,749 | ||
Jewel Kelly, Jr. ![]() | 1.8 | 6,464 | ||
Lewis Rolen ![]() | 1.4 | 5,247 | ||
Pat Kelly ![]() | 1.4 | 5,002 | ||
Ronald William Harris ![]() | 1.1 | 4,074 | ||
Joshua Shipp ![]() | 0.9 | 3,334 | ||
Clarence Taylor ![]() | 0.9 | 3,322 | ||
| Total votes: 368,255 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Timothy Shepard (D)
- Scott Sifton (D)
- Ronald Deets (D)
- MD Rabbi Alam (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri
The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 2, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Eric Schmitt | 45.6 | 299,282 | |
| Vicky Hartzler | 22.1 | 144,903 | ||
| Eric Greitens | 18.9 | 124,155 | ||
| Billy Long | 5.0 | 32,603 | ||
| Mark McCloskey | 3.0 | 19,540 | ||
| Dave Schatz | 1.1 | 7,509 | ||
| Patrick Lewis | 0.9 | 6,085 | ||
Curtis D. Vaughn ![]() | 0.5 | 3,451 | ||
| Eric McElroy | 0.4 | 2,805 | ||
| Robert Allen | 0.3 | 2,111 | ||
C.W. Gardner ![]() | 0.3 | 2,044 | ||
| Dave Sims | 0.3 | 1,949 | ||
| Bernie Mowinski | 0.2 | 1,602 | ||
| Deshon Porter | 0.2 | 1,574 | ||
| Darrell Leon McClanahan III | 0.2 | 1,139 | ||
| Rickey Joiner | 0.2 | 1,084 | ||
| Robert Olson | 0.2 | 1,081 | ||
| Dennis Lee Chilton | 0.1 | 755 | ||
| Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr | 0.1 | 685 | ||
| Kevin Schepers | 0.1 | 681 | ||
| Hartford Tunnell | 0.1 | 637 | ||
| Total votes: 655,675 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- John Brinkmann (R)
- Dan McQueen (R)
- Ronald Deets (R)
- Rik Combs (R)
Constitution primary election
Constitution primary for U.S. Senate Missouri
Paul Venable advanced from the Constitution primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 2, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Paul Venable | 100.0 | 792 | |
| Total votes: 792 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Libertarian primary election
Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Missouri
Jonathan Dine advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 2, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Jonathan Dine | 100.0 | 2,973 | |
| Total votes: 2,973 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Missouri
Candidate comparison
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Biography: Busch Valentine received her nursing degree from Saint Louis University and her M.A. in pastoral studies from the Aquinas Institute of Theology. Her professional experience includes working as a nurse at the Salvation Army Residence for Children.
Show sources
Sources: Trudy Busch Valentines' 2022 campaign website, "Trudy Busch Valentine Announces Campaign for U.S. Senate," March 28, 2022 ; Trudy Busch Valentines' 2022 campaign website, "Protecting Safe and Legal Abortion," accessed August 17, 2022 ; Trudy Busch Valentines' 2022 campaign website, "Standing with the LGTBQ Community," accessed August 17, 2022; Trudy Busch Valentine's 2022 campaign website, "About," accessed August 16, 2022
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Missouri in 2022.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office:
- Attorney General of Missouri (Assumed office: 2019)
- Treasurer of Missouri (2017-2019)
- Missouri State Senate District 15 (2008-2017)
Biography: Schmitt received a B.A. from Truman State University and a J.D. from Saint Louis University. His professional experience included working as an attorney and serving as a Glendale city alderman.
Show sources
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Missouri in 2022.
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.
Campaign advertisements
This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.
Trudy Busch Valentine
| November 1, 2022 |
| October 30, 2022 |
| October 25, 2022 |
View more ads here:
Eric Schmitt
| October 26, 2022 |
| October 25, 2022 |
| October 17, 2022 |
View more ads here:
Satellite ads
This section includes a selection of campaign advertisements released by satellite groups. If you are aware of other satellite ads that should be included, please email us.
Missouri Stands United
Missouri Stands United published ads in support of John Wood (I). The group's stated goal was to "show the country that we're ready to move on from toxic and divisive politics and elect candidates that unite us, not divide us."[19]
Debates and forums
This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, please email us.
September 16 candidate forum
Busch Valentine, Venable, and Dine participated in a forum hosted by the Missouri Press Association.[20] Click on the links below for summaries of the event:
Election competitiveness
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[21] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[22] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.
Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.
| United States Senate election in Missouri, 2022: General election polls | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Date | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size[23] | Sponsor[24] | ||
| Trafalgar Group | October 30-November 1, 2022 | 42% | 53% | 4%[25] | ± 2.9 | 1,079 LV | N/A |
| Emerson College | October 26-28, 2022 | 39% | 51% | 6% | ± 3.0 | 1,000 LV | The Hill |
| Remington Research Group | October 24-25, 2022 | 42% | 51% | 7%[26] | ± 3.0 | 1,011 LV | Missouri Scout |
| Emerson College | September 23-27, 2022 | 38% | 49% | 13%[27] | ± 2.8 | 1,160 LV | N/A |
| Survey USA | September 14-18, 2022 | 36% | 47% | 18%[28] | ± 4.4 | 670 LV | Gray Television Missouri |
| Click [show] to see older poll results | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Date | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size[23] | Sponsor[24] | ||
| Remington Research Group | August 24-25, 2022 | 40% | 51% | 9%[29] | ± 3.0 | 1,011 LV | Missouri Scout |
| Saint Louis University / YouGov | August 8-16, 2022 | 38% | 49% | 13%[30] | ± 3.8 | 900 LV | N/A |
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[31]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[32][33][34]
| Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2022 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 8, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | October 18, 2022 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. | |||||||||
Noteworthy endorsements
Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.
| Noteworthy endorsements | ||
|---|---|---|
| Endorser | ||
| Government officials | ||
| U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt (R) source | ✔ | |
| U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley (R) source | ✔ | |
| Individuals | ||
| Frmr. U.S. Sen. John Ashcroft source | ✔ | |
| Frmr. U.S. Sen. Kit Bond source | ✔ | |
| Frmr. U.S. Sen. Jean Carnahan source | ✔ | |
| Frmr. U.S. Sen. Jim Talent source | ✔ | |
| Frmr. President Donald Trump source | ✔ | |
| Newspapers and editorials | ||
| Kansas City Star source | ✔ | |
| St. Louis American source | ✔ | |
| Organizations | ||
| Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters source | ✔ | |
| National Education Association source | ✔ | |
Election spending
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[35] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[36] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.
| U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Report | Close of books | Filing deadline |
| Year-end 2021 | 12/31/2021 | 1/31/2022 |
| April quarterly | 3/31/2022 | 4/15/2022 |
| July quarterly | 6/30/2022 | 7/15/2022 |
| October quarterly | 9/30/2022 | 10/15/2022 |
| Pre-general | 10/19/2022 | 10/27/2022 |
| Post-general | 11/28/2022 | 12/08/2022 |
| Year-end 2022 | 12/31/2022 | 1/31/2023 |
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trudy Busch Valentine | Democratic Party | $18,322,282 | $18,028,200 | $294,082 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Ronald William Harris | Democratic Party | $7,975 | $7,929 | $46 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Jewel Kelly, Jr. | Democratic Party | $13,872 | $13,872 | $0 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Pat Kelly | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Lucas Kunce | Democratic Party | $5,735,055 | $5,727,773 | $7,282 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Lewis Rolen | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Gena Ross | Democratic Party | $6,148 | $6,148 | $0 | As of September 30, 2022 |
| Joshua Shipp | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Clarence Taylor | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Spencer Toder | Democratic Party | $1,295,878 | $1,287,477 | $0 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Carla Wright | Democratic Party | $10,239 | $10,239 | $0 | As of December 2, 2022 |
| Robert Allen | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| C.W. Gardner | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Eric Greitens | Republican Party | $2,310,820 | $2,298,041 | $12,779 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Vicky Hartzler | Republican Party | $3,813,033 | $4,456,982 | $1,483 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Rickey Joiner | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Dennis Lee Chilton | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Patrick Lewis | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Billy Long | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Darrell Leon McClanahan III | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Mark McCloskey | Republican Party | $1,105,914 | $1,105,914 | $0 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Eric McElroy | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Bernie Mowinski | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Robert Olson | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Deshon Porter | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Dave Schatz | Republican Party | $2,311,160 | $2,311,160 | $0 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Kevin Schepers | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Eric Schmitt | Republican Party | $6,536,881 | $6,436,644 | $103,127 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Dave Sims | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $250 | As of January 31, 2022 |
| Hartford Tunnell | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Curtis D. Vaughn | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Paul Venable | Constitution Party | $1,590 | $7,791 | $-6,201 | As of October 19, 2022 |
| Jonathan Dine | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Theodis Brown Sr. | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Gina Bufe | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Rik Combs | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| David Kirk | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Martin Lindstedt | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Nathan Mooney | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Steve Price | Independent | $19,564 | $12,824 | $6,740 | As of September 30, 2022 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[37][38]
If available, satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. FEC links include totals from monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual reports. OpenSecrets.org compiles data from those reports as well as 24- and 48-hour reports from the FEC.[39]
Details about satellite spending of significant amounts and/or reported by media are included below those links. The amounts listed may not represent the total satellite spending in the election. To notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.
Election analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
- Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
- State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
- Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
Presidential elections
Cook PVI by congressional district
| Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Missouri, 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI |
| Missouri's 1st | Cori Bush | D+27 | |
| Missouri's 2nd | Ann Wagner | R+7 | |
| Missouri's 3rd | Blaine Luetkemeyer | R+16 | |
| Missouri's 4th | Open | R+23 | |
| Missouri's 5th | Emanuel Cleaver | D+11 | |
| Missouri's 6th | Sam Graves | R+21 | |
| Missouri's 7th | Open | R+24 | |
| Missouri's 8th | Jason Smith | R+28 | |
2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines
| 2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Missouri[40] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Joe Biden |
Donald Trump | ||
| Missouri's 1st | 78.4% | 20.0% | ||
| Missouri's 2nd | 45.3% | 53.0% | ||
| Missouri's 3rd | 35.9% | 62.2% | ||
| Missouri's 4th | 29.3% | 68.7% | ||
| Missouri's 5th | 62.2% | 35.9% | ||
| Missouri's 6th | 30.6% | 67.7% | ||
| Missouri's 7th | 28.4% | 69.8% | ||
| Missouri's 8th | 23.6% | 75.0% | ||
2012-2020
How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:
| County-level voting pattern categories | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | |||||||
| Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Solid Democratic | D | D | D | ||||
| Trending Democratic | R | D | D | ||||
| Battleground Democratic | D | R | D | ||||
| New Democratic | R | R | D | ||||
| Republican | |||||||
| Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Solid Republican | R | R | R | ||||
| Trending Republican | D | R | R | ||||
| Battleground Republican | R | D | R | ||||
| New Republican | D | D | R | ||||
Following the 2020 presidential election, 64.2% of Missourians lived in one of the state's 111 Solid Republican counties, which voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 35.8% lived in one of four Solid Democratic counties. Overall, Missouri was Solid Republican, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Donald Trump (R) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Missouri following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.[41]
| Missouri county-level statistics, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid Republican | 111 | 64.2% | |||||
| Solid Democratic | 4 | 35.8% | |||||
| Total voted Democratic | 4 | 35.8% | |||||
| Total voted Republican | 111 | 64.2% | |||||
Historical voting trends
Missouri presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 14 Democratic wins
- 17 Republican wins
| Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winning Party | D | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | D | D | D | R | R | D | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Statewide elections
This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.
U.S. Senate elections
The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Missouri.
| U.S. Senate election results in Missouri | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Winner | Runner up |
| 2018 | 51.4% |
45.6% |
| 2016 | 49.3% |
46.2% |
| 2012 | 54.8% |
39.0% |
| 2010 | 54.3% |
40.6% |
| 2006 | 49.6% |
47.3% |
| Average | 51.9 | 43.7 |
Gubernatorial elections
- See also: Governor of Missouri
The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Missouri.
| Gubernatorial election results in Missouri | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Winner | Runner up |
| 2020 | 57.1% |
40.7% |
| 2016 | 51.1% |
45.6% |
| 2012 | 54.8% |
42.5% |
| 2008 | 58.4% |
39.5% |
| 2004 | 50.8% |
47.8% |
| Average | 54.4 | 43.2 |
State partisanship
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Missouri's congressional delegation as of November 2022.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Missouri, November 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Republican | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 8 | 10 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Missouri's top four state executive offices as November 2022.
| State executive officials in Missouri, November 2022 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | |
| Lieutenant Governor | |
| Secretary of State | |
| Attorney General | |
State legislature
The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Missouri General Assembly as of November 2022.
Missouri State Senate
| Party | As of November 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 10 | |
| Republican Party | 24 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 34 | |
Missouri House of Representatives
| Party | As of November 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 48 | |
| Republican Party | 107 | |
| Vacancies | 8 | |
| Total | 163 | |
Trifecta control
As of November 2022, Missouri was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.
Missouri Party Control: 1992-2022
Eight years of Democratic trifectas • Ten years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Demographics
The table below details demographic data in Missouri and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.
| Demographic Data for Missouri | ||
|---|---|---|
| Missouri | United States | |
| Population | 5,988,927 | 308,745,538 |
| Land area (sq mi) | 68,746 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White | 82.2% | 72.5% |
| Black/African American | 11.5% | 12.7% |
| Asian | 2% | 5.5% |
| Native American | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Other (single race) | 1.2% | 4.9% |
| Multiple | 2.6% | 3.3% |
| Hispanic/Latino | 4.2% | 18% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate | 89.9% | 88% |
| College graduation rate | 29.2% | 32.1% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income | $55,461 | $62,843 |
| Persons below poverty level | 13.7% | 13.4% |
| Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019). | ||
| **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
Election context
Ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Missouri in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Missouri, click here.
| Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2022 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
| Missouri | U.S. Senate | Ballot-qualified party | N/A | $500.00 | 3/29/2022 | Source |
| Missouri | U.S. Senate | Unaffiliated | 10,000 | N/A | 8/1/2022 | Source |
Election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. Senate Missouri
Josh Hawley defeated incumbent Claire McCaskill, Craig O'Dear, Japheth Campbell, and Jo Crain in the general election for U.S. Senate Missouri on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Josh Hawley (R) | 51.4 | 1,254,927 | |
| Claire McCaskill (D) | 45.6 | 1,112,935 | ||
| Craig O'Dear (Independent) | 1.4 | 34,398 | ||
Japheth Campbell (L) ![]() | 1.1 | 27,316 | ||
| Jo Crain (G) | 0.5 | 12,706 | ||
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.0 | 7 | ||
| Total votes: 2,442,289 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri
The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Claire McCaskill | 82.6 | 500,162 | |
| Carla Wright | 6.8 | 40,971 | ||
| John Hogan | 2.6 | 15,928 | ||
| David Faust | 2.6 | 15,902 | ||
| Angelica Earl | 2.6 | 15,453 | ||
| Travis Gonzalez | 1.6 | 9,453 | ||
| Leonard Steinman II | 1.3 | 7,634 | ||
| Total votes: 605,503 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri
The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Josh Hawley | 58.6 | 389,006 | |
| Tony Monetti | 9.8 | 64,718 | ||
| Austin Petersen | 8.3 | 54,810 | ||
| Kristi Nichols | 7.5 | 49,554 | ||
| Christina Smith | 5.3 | 34,948 | ||
| Ken Patterson | 2.9 | 19,537 | ||
| Peter Pfeifer | 2.5 | 16,557 | ||
| Courtland Sykes | 2.1 | 13,862 | ||
| Fred Ryman | 1.3 | 8,763 | ||
| Brian Hagg | 1.0 | 6,913 | ||
Bradley Krembs ![]() | 0.7 | 4,885 | ||
| Total votes: 663,553 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
Green primary election
Green primary for U.S. Senate Missouri
Jo Crain defeated Jerome H. Bauer in the Green primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Jo Crain | 57.5 | 902 | |
| Jerome H. Bauer | 42.5 | 666 | ||
| Total votes: 1,568 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Libertarian primary election
Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Missouri
Japheth Campbell advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Japheth Campbell ![]() | 100.0 | 5,357 | |
| Total votes: 5,357 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2016
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 49.2% | 1,378,458 | ||
| Democratic | Jason Kander | 46.4% | 1,300,200 | |
| Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 2.4% | 67,738 | |
| Green | Johnathan McFarland | 1.1% | 30,743 | |
| Constitution | Fred Ryman | 0.9% | 25,407 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0% | 95 | |
| Total Votes | 2,802,641 | |||
| Source: Missouri Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
69.9% | 223,492 | ||
| Cori Bush | 13.3% | 42,453 | ||
| Chief Wana Dubie | 9.5% | 30,432 | ||
| Robert Mack | 7.3% | 23,509 | ||
| Total Votes | 319,886 | |||
| Source: Missouri Secretary of State |
||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
72.6% | 481,444 | ||
| Kristi Nichols | 20.2% | 134,025 | ||
| Ryan Luethy | 4.4% | 29,328 | ||
| Bernie Mowinski | 2.8% | 18,789 | ||
| Total Votes | 663,586 | |||
| Source: Missouri Secretary of State |
||||
2012
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 54.8% | 1,494,125 | ||
| Republican | Todd Akin | 39.1% | 1,066,159 | |
| Libertarian | Jonathan Dine | 6.1% | 165,468 | |
| Write-in | Ted Kimzey | 0% | 15 | |
| Write-in | Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. | 0% | 9 | |
| Write-in | William Dean | 0% | 6 | |
| Write-in | Bernie Mowinksi | 0% | 5 | |
| Write-in | Charlie L. Bailey | 0% | 4 | |
| Write-in | Arnie C. "AC" Dienoff | 0% | 2 | |
| Total Votes | 2,725,793 | |||
| Source: Missouri Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
2022 battleground elections
- See also: Battlegrounds
This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:
- Arizona Secretary of State election, 2022
- California's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022
- Massachusetts Secretary of State election, 2022 (September 6 Democratic primary)
- Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary)
- Texas state legislative Republican primaries, 2022
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Politico, "GOP Sen. Roy Blunt will not run for reelection," March 8, 2021
- ↑ Trudy Busch Valentine's 2022 campaign website, "About," accessed August 16, 2022
- ↑ Missouri Independent, "Beer heiress Trudy Busch Valentine captures Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate," August 2, 2022
- ↑ Trudy Busch Valentine's 2022 campaign website, "Trudy Busch Valentine Announces Campaign for U.S. Senate," March 28, 2022
- ↑ Eric Schmitt's 2022 campaign website, "Issues," accessed August 16, 2022
- ↑ The special Senate election in California was for the same seat up for regular election. There were, then, 36 total Senate elections for 35 total seats.
- ↑ Two independents who caucus with Democrats are included with Democrats in the 50-50 split count.
- ↑ Trafalgar Group, "MO US Sen General – Oct-Nov 2022," November 3, 2022
- ↑ The Hill, " Schmitt holds double-digit lead in Missouri Senate race: poll," November 1, 2022
- ↑ Missouri Scout, "MOScout Weekender," October 29, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "Eric Schmitt on October 17, 2022," accessed October 17, 2022
- ↑ St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Valentine pours another $3.3 million into her bid for Missouri’s Senate seat," October 17, 2022
- ↑ KZRG, "The National Education Association endorses Missouri Senate Candidate Trudy Busch Valentine," October 12, 2022
- ↑ St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Wood abandons independent bid for Missouri’s US Senate seat," August 23, 2022
- ↑ National Review, "Three Former GOP Missouri Senators Endorse Eric Schmitt," August 19, 2022
- ↑ Fox2Now, "Outgoing Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt endorses Eric Schmitt to replace him," August 18, 2022
- ↑ Fox2Now, "Josh Hawley after Eric Schmitt’s primary win: ‘I absolutely endorse him,'" August 3, 2022
- ↑ KSDK, "Jack Danforth backing independent campaign for US Senate," June 30, 2022
- ↑ Missouri Stands United, "Home," accessed August 16, 2022
- ↑ Southeast Missourian, "Missouri U.S. Senate candidates debate, but Schmitt a no show," September 19, 2022
- ↑ For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
- ↑ 23.0 23.1 RV=Registered Voters
LV=Likely Voters - ↑ 24.0 24.1 The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
- ↑ Includes responses for "Undecided" (2%) and "Jonathan Dine" (2%).
- ↑ Includes responses for "Undecided" (4%), "Jonathan Dine" (2%), and "Paul Venable" (1%).
- ↑ Includes responses for "Undecided" (10%) and "Someone Else" (3%).
- ↑ Includes responses for "Undecided" (14%) and "Another Candidate" (4%).
- ↑ Includes responses for "Not sure" (7%), "Jonathan Dine" (1%), and "Paul Venable" (1%).
- ↑ Includes responses for "Not sure" (8%) and "Other" (5%).
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ Amee LaTour, Email correspondence with the Center for Responsive Politics, August 5, 2022
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022
- ↑ This analysis includes Missouri's 114 counties and the independent city of St. Louis.
= candidate completed the