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United States Senate election in Missouri, 2022

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2024
2018
U.S. Senate, Missouri
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 29, 2022
Primary: August 2, 2022
General: November 8, 2022
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Missouri
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
See also
U.S. Senate, Missouri
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th
Missouri elections, 2022
U.S. Congress elections, 2022
U.S. Senate elections, 2022
U.S. House elections, 2022

Eric Schmitt (R) defeated Trudy Busch Valentine (D), Paul Venable (Constitution Party), and Jonathan Dine (L) in the general election for one of Missouri's U.S. Senate seats on November 8, 2022. Sen. Roy Blunt (R), who first took office in 2011, did not seek re-election.[1]

Busch Valentine, the heiress of the Anheuser-Busch beer company, worked as a nurse.[2] Busch Valentine said she wanted to fight the opioid epidemic, improve access to quality healthcare, and advocate for women's rights.[3] She also criticized the state of politics in Missouri and called it divisive. "Our communities are strong, but our politics are broken. Too often neighbors and families just stop talking to each other, and the politicians in Washington continue to divide us even further," she said.[4] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Busch Valentine cumulatively raised $12.0 million and spent $11.7 million.

Schmitt was appointed attorney general of Missouri in January 2019. He was treasurer of Missouri from 2017 to 2019, and a member of the Missouri State Senate from 2008 to 2016. Schmitt ran on his record as attorney general and the lawsuits he filed against the federal government. Schmitt said, "[I have] taken a blow torch to Biden’s unconstitutional and unlawful policies to protect the America First Agenda." He also said that he was a "proven Conservative [who will] take the fight to the Senate and save our values, our culture, and our country."[5] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the FEC, Schmitt cumulatively raised $5.7 million and spent $5.5 million.

At the time of the election, three independent election forecasters rated the general election as Solid Republican or Safe Republican. Donald Trump (R) won the state in the 2020 presidential election by a 15.4% margin. At the time of the 2022 election, the last time a Democratic candidate won a statewide election in Missouri was in 2012, when U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill and Gov. Jay Nixon (D) both won re-election. Missouri's other U.S. senator, Josh Hawley (R), won the 2018 election by a 5.8% margin.

The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate in 2022. Democrats retained their majority and gained one net seat, with the Senate's post-election partisan balance at 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.

Thirty-five of 100 seats were up for election, including one special election.[6] At the time of the election, Democrats had an effective majority, with the chamber split 50-50 and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) having the tie-breaking vote.[7] Of the seats up for election in 2022, Democrats held 14 and Republicans held 21.

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Election news

This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Missouri

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. Senate Missouri on November 8, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Eric Schmitt
Eric Schmitt (R)
 
55.4
 
1,146,966
Image of Trudy Busch Valentine
Trudy Busch Valentine (D)
 
42.2
 
872,694
Image of Jonathan Dine
Jonathan Dine (L)
 
1.7
 
34,821
Image of Paul Venable
Paul Venable (Constitution Party)
 
0.7
 
14,608
Nathan Mooney (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
14
Steve Price (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
9
Image of Rik Combs
Rik Combs (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
6
Image of Gina Bufe
Gina Bufe (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
5
Image of Theodis Brown Sr.
Theodis Brown Sr. (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
4
David Kirk (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
3
Martin Lindstedt (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
0

Total votes: 2,069,130
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Trudy Busch Valentine
Trudy Busch Valentine
 
43.2
 
158,957
Image of Lucas Kunce
Lucas Kunce Candidate Connection
 
38.3
 
141,203
Image of Spencer Toder
Spencer Toder Candidate Connection
 
4.7
 
17,465
Image of Carla Wright
Carla Wright Candidate Connection
 
3.9
 
14,438
Image of Gena Ross
Gena Ross Candidate Connection
 
2.4
 
8,749
Image of Jewel Kelly, Jr.
Jewel Kelly, Jr. Candidate Connection
 
1.8
 
6,464
Image of Lewis Rolen
Lewis Rolen Candidate Connection
 
1.4
 
5,247
Image of Pat Kelly
Pat Kelly Candidate Connection
 
1.4
 
5,002
Image of Ronald William Harris
Ronald William Harris Candidate Connection
 
1.1
 
4,074
Image of Joshua Shipp
Joshua Shipp Candidate Connection
 
0.9
 
3,334
Image of Clarence Taylor
Clarence Taylor Candidate Connection
 
0.9
 
3,322

Total votes: 368,255
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Eric Schmitt
Eric Schmitt
 
45.6
 
299,282
Image of Vicky Hartzler
Vicky Hartzler
 
22.1
 
144,903
Image of Eric Greitens
Eric Greitens
 
18.9
 
124,155
Image of Billy Long
Billy Long
 
5.0
 
32,603
Image of Mark McCloskey
Mark McCloskey
 
3.0
 
19,540
Image of Dave Schatz
Dave Schatz
 
1.1
 
7,509
Patrick Lewis
 
0.9
 
6,085
Image of Curtis D. Vaughn
Curtis D. Vaughn Candidate Connection
 
0.5
 
3,451
Eric McElroy
 
0.4
 
2,805
Robert Allen
 
0.3
 
2,111
Image of C.W. Gardner
C.W. Gardner Candidate Connection
 
0.3
 
2,044
Dave Sims
 
0.3
 
1,949
Image of Bernie Mowinski
Bernie Mowinski
 
0.2
 
1,602
Deshon Porter
 
0.2
 
1,574
Image of Darrell Leon McClanahan III
Darrell Leon McClanahan III
 
0.2
 
1,139
Rickey Joiner
 
0.2
 
1,084
Robert Olson
 
0.2
 
1,081
Dennis Lee Chilton
 
0.1
 
755
Image of Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr
Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr
 
0.1
 
685
Kevin Schepers
 
0.1
 
681
Hartford Tunnell
 
0.1
 
637

Total votes: 655,675
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Constitution primary election

Constitution primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

Paul Venable advanced from the Constitution primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Paul Venable
Paul Venable
 
100.0
 
792

Total votes: 792
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

Jonathan Dine advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jonathan Dine
Jonathan Dine
 
100.0
 
2,973

Total votes: 2,973
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Voting information

See also: Voting in Missouri

Election information in Missouri: Nov. 8, 2022, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

  • In-person: Oct. 12, 2022
  • By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 12, 2022
  • Online: Oct. 12, 2022

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

No

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

  • In-person: Nov. 7, 2022
  • By mail: Received by Oct. 26, 2022
  • Online: N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

  • In-person: Nov. 8, 2022
  • By mail: Received by Nov. 8, 2022

Was early voting available to all voters?

No

What were the early voting start and end dates?

N/A to N/A

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

N/A


Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Image of Trudy Busch Valentine

WebsiteFacebookXYouTube

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Busch Valentine received her nursing degree from Saint Louis University and her M.A. in pastoral studies from the Aquinas Institute of Theology. Her professional experience includes working as a nurse at the Salvation Army Residence for Children.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Busch Valentine said she would work on changing the political climate in the state. "Our communities are strong, but our politics are broken. Too often neighbors and families just stop talking to each other, and the politicians in Washington continue to divide us even further," she said.


Busch Valentine said her opponent would vote to restrict abortion access. She said she would "work every day to restore and protect the right to safe and legal abortion everywhere. [I] will vote to codify Roe v. Wade into federal law and will support efforts to end the filibuster to pass legislation to federally protect the right to an abortion."


Busch Valentine highlighted LGBTQ policy on her campaign website. She said she would vote for legislation protecting LGBTQ individuals from discrimination, for legislation recognizing same-sex marriage, and against legislation restricting access to gender-affirming care for children.


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Missouri in 2022.

Image of Eric Schmitt

WebsiteFacebookXYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 


Biography:  Schmitt received a B.A. from Truman State University and a J.D. from Saint Louis University. His professional experience included working as an attorney and serving as a Glendale city alderman.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Schmitt highlighted his political experience, saying he "defended President Trump at every turn and fought for justice for Missourians against the radical left, Big Tech, and even the Communist Party of China."


Schmitt said that "with Joe Biden in the White House and a liberal takeover in the House and Senate, we need a proven Conservative to take the fight to the Senate and save our values, our culture, and our country."


Schmitt said that as attorney general he "has taken a blow torch to Biden’s unconstitutional and unlawful policies to protect the America First Agenda. He has been on the front lines of every fight President Biden has waged against our jobs, our freedoms, and our safety."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Missouri in 2022.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Trudy Busch Valentine

November 1, 2022
October 30, 2022
October 25, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Eric Schmitt

October 26, 2022
October 25, 2022
October 17, 2022

View more ads here:


Satellite ads

This section includes a selection of campaign advertisements released by satellite groups. If you are aware of other satellite ads that should be included, please email us.

Missouri Stands United

Missouri Stands United published ads in support of John Wood (I). The group's stated goal was to "show the country that we're ready to move on from toxic and divisive politics and elect candidates that unite us, not divide us."[19]

Debates and forums

This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, please email us.

September 16 candidate forum

Busch Valentine, Venable, and Dine participated in a forum hosted by the Missouri Press Association.[20] Click on the links below for summaries of the event:

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls


Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[21] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[22] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.


United States Senate election in Missouri, 2022: General election polls
Poll Date Democratic Party Busch Valentine Republican Party Schmitt Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size[23] Sponsor[24]
Trafalgar Group October 30-November 1, 2022 42% 53% 4%[25] ± 2.9 1,079 LV N/A
Emerson College October 26-28, 2022 39% 51% 6% ± 3.0 1,000 LV The Hill
Remington Research Group October 24-25, 2022 42% 51% 7%[26] ± 3.0 1,011 LV Missouri Scout
Emerson College September 23-27, 2022 38% 49% 13%[27] ± 2.8 1,160 LV N/A
Survey USA September 14-18, 2022 36% 47% 18%[28] ± 4.4 670 LV Gray Television Missouri

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[31]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[32][33][34]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2022
Race trackerRace ratings
November 8, 2022November 1, 2022October 25, 2022October 18, 2022
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Noteworthy endorsements

Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.


Noteworthy endorsements
Endorser Democratic Party Trudy Busch Valentine Republican Party Eric Schmitt
Government officials
U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt (R)  source  
U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley (R)  source  
Individuals
Frmr. U.S. Sen. John Ashcroft  source  
Frmr. U.S. Sen. Kit Bond  source  
Frmr. U.S. Sen. Jean Carnahan  source  
Frmr. U.S. Sen. Jim Talent  source  
Frmr. President Donald Trump  source  
Newspapers and editorials
Kansas City Star  source  
St. Louis American  source  
Organizations
Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters  source  
National Education Association  source  

Election spending

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[35] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[36] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.

U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022
Report Close of books Filing deadline
Year-end 2021 12/31/2021 1/31/2022
April quarterly 3/31/2022 4/15/2022
July quarterly 6/30/2022 7/15/2022
October quarterly 9/30/2022 10/15/2022
Pre-general 10/19/2022 10/27/2022
Post-general 11/28/2022 12/08/2022
Year-end 2022 12/31/2022 1/31/2023


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Trudy Busch Valentine Democratic Party $18,322,282 $18,028,200 $294,082 As of December 31, 2022
Ronald William Harris Democratic Party $7,975 $7,929 $46 As of December 31, 2022
Jewel Kelly, Jr. Democratic Party $13,872 $13,872 $0 As of December 31, 2022
Pat Kelly Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Lucas Kunce Democratic Party $5,735,055 $5,727,773 $7,282 As of December 31, 2022
Lewis Rolen Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Gena Ross Democratic Party $6,148 $6,148 $0 As of September 30, 2022
Joshua Shipp Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Clarence Taylor Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Spencer Toder Democratic Party $1,295,878 $1,287,477 $0 As of December 31, 2022
Carla Wright Democratic Party $10,239 $10,239 $0 As of December 2, 2022
Robert Allen Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
C.W. Gardner Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Eric Greitens Republican Party $2,310,820 $2,298,041 $12,779 As of December 31, 2022
Vicky Hartzler Republican Party $3,813,033 $4,456,982 $1,483 As of December 31, 2022
Rickey Joiner Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Dennis Lee Chilton Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Patrick Lewis Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Billy Long Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Darrell Leon McClanahan III Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Mark McCloskey Republican Party $1,105,914 $1,105,914 $0 As of December 31, 2022
Eric McElroy Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Bernie Mowinski Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Robert Olson Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Deshon Porter Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Dave Schatz Republican Party $2,311,160 $2,311,160 $0 As of December 31, 2022
Kevin Schepers Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Eric Schmitt Republican Party $6,536,881 $6,436,644 $103,127 As of December 31, 2022
Dave Sims Republican Party $0 $0 $250 As of January 31, 2022
Hartford Tunnell Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Curtis D. Vaughn Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Paul Venable Constitution Party $1,590 $7,791 $-6,201 As of October 19, 2022
Jonathan Dine Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Theodis Brown Sr. Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Gina Bufe Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Rik Combs Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
David Kirk Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Martin Lindstedt Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Nathan Mooney Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Steve Price Independent $19,564 $12,824 $6,740 As of September 30, 2022

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[37][38]

If available, satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. FEC links include totals from monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual reports. OpenSecrets.org compiles data from those reports as well as 24- and 48-hour reports from the FEC.[39]

Details about satellite spending of significant amounts and/or reported by media are included below those links. The amounts listed may not represent the total satellite spending in the election. To notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.

By candidate By election

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
  • Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
  • State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

Presidential elections

See also: Presidential voting trends in Missouri and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Missouri, 2022
District Incumbent Party PVI
Missouri's 1st Cori Bush Electiondot.png Democratic D+27
Missouri's 2nd Ann Wagner Ends.png Republican R+7
Missouri's 3rd Blaine Luetkemeyer Ends.png Republican R+16
Missouri's 4th Open Ends.png Republican R+23
Missouri's 5th Emanuel Cleaver Electiondot.png Democratic D+11
Missouri's 6th Sam Graves Ends.png Republican R+21
Missouri's 7th Open Ends.png Republican R+24
Missouri's 8th Jason Smith Ends.png Republican R+28


2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Missouri[40]
District Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
Missouri's 1st 78.4% 20.0%
Missouri's 2nd 45.3% 53.0%
Missouri's 3rd 35.9% 62.2%
Missouri's 4th 29.3% 68.7%
Missouri's 5th 62.2% 35.9%
Missouri's 6th 30.6% 67.7%
Missouri's 7th 28.4% 69.8%
Missouri's 8th 23.6% 75.0%


2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:


Following the 2020 presidential election, 64.2% of Missourians lived in one of the state's 111 Solid Republican counties, which voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 35.8% lived in one of four Solid Democratic counties. Overall, Missouri was Solid Republican, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Donald Trump (R) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Missouri following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.[41]

Historical voting trends

Missouri presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 14 Democratic wins
  • 17 Republican wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party D R R D D R R R D D D D D R D D D R R D R R R D D R R R R R R

Statewide elections

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from Missouri

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Missouri.

U.S. Senate election results in Missouri
Race Winner Runner up
2018 51.4%Republican Party 45.6%Democratic Party
2016 49.3%Republican Party 46.2%Democratic Party
2012 54.8%Democratic Party 39.0%Republican Party
2010 54.3%Republican Party 40.6%Democratic Party
2006 49.6%Democratic Party 47.3%Republican Party
Average 51.9 43.7

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of Missouri

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Missouri.

Gubernatorial election results in Missouri
Race Winner Runner up
2020 57.1%Republican Party 40.7%Democratic Party
2016 51.1%Republican Party 45.6%Democratic Party
2012 54.8%Democratic Party 42.5%Republican Party
2008 58.4%Democratic Party 39.5%Republican Party
2004 50.8%Republican Party 47.8%Democratic Party
Average 54.4 43.2

State partisanship

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Missouri's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Missouri, November 2022
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 0 2 2
Republican 2 6 8
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 8 10

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Missouri's top four state executive offices as November 2022.

State executive officials in Missouri, November 2022
Office Officeholder
Governor Republican Party Mike Parson
Lieutenant Governor Republican Party Mike Kehoe
Secretary of State Republican Party Jay Ashcroft
Attorney General Republican Party Eric Schmitt

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Missouri General Assembly as of November 2022.

Missouri State Senate

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 10
     Republican Party 24
     Vacancies 0
Total 34

Missouri House of Representatives

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 48
     Republican Party 107
     Vacancies 8
Total 163

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Missouri was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Missouri Party Control: 1992-2022
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  Ten years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Governor R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Missouri and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

Demographic Data for Missouri
Missouri United States
Population 5,988,927 308,745,538
Land area (sq mi) 68,746 3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White 82.2% 72.5%
Black/African American 11.5% 12.7%
Asian 2% 5.5%
Native American 0.4% 0.8%
Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.2%
Other (single race) 1.2% 4.9%
Multiple 2.6% 3.3%
Hispanic/Latino 4.2% 18%
Education
High school graduation rate 89.9% 88%
College graduation rate 29.2% 32.1%
Income
Median household income $55,461 $62,843
Persons below poverty level 13.7% 13.4%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


Election context

Ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Missouri in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Missouri, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2022
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Missouri U.S. Senate Ballot-qualified party N/A $500.00 3/29/2022 Source
Missouri U.S. Senate Unaffiliated 10,000 N/A 8/1/2022 Source

Election history

2018

See also: United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Missouri

Josh Hawley defeated incumbent Claire McCaskill, Craig O'Dear, Japheth Campbell, and Jo Crain in the general election for U.S. Senate Missouri on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Josh Hawley
Josh Hawley (R)
 
51.4
 
1,254,927
Image of Claire McCaskill
Claire McCaskill (D)
 
45.6
 
1,112,935
Image of Craig O'Dear
Craig O'Dear (Independent)
 
1.4
 
34,398
Image of Japheth Campbell
Japheth Campbell (L) Candidate Connection
 
1.1
 
27,316
Image of Jo Crain
Jo Crain (G)
 
0.5
 
12,706
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
7

Total votes: 2,442,289
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Claire McCaskill
Claire McCaskill
 
82.6
 
500,162
Image of Carla Wright
Carla Wright
 
6.8
 
40,971
John Hogan
 
2.6
 
15,928
David Faust
 
2.6
 
15,902
Image of Angelica Earl
Angelica Earl
 
2.6
 
15,453
Image of Travis Gonzalez
Travis Gonzalez
 
1.6
 
9,453
Image of Leonard Steinman II
Leonard Steinman II
 
1.3
 
7,634

Total votes: 605,503
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Josh Hawley
Josh Hawley
 
58.6
 
389,006
Image of Tony Monetti
Tony Monetti
 
9.8
 
64,718
Image of Austin Petersen
Austin Petersen
 
8.3
 
54,810
Image of Kristi Nichols
Kristi Nichols
 
7.5
 
49,554
Image of Christina Smith
Christina Smith
 
5.3
 
34,948
Ken Patterson
 
2.9
 
19,537
Image of Peter Pfeifer
Peter Pfeifer
 
2.5
 
16,557
Image of Courtland Sykes
Courtland Sykes
 
2.1
 
13,862
Image of Fred Ryman
Fred Ryman
 
1.3
 
8,763
Brian Hagg
 
1.0
 
6,913
Bradley Krembs Candidate Connection
 
0.7
 
4,885

Total votes: 663,553
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Green primary election

Green primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

Jo Crain defeated Jerome H. Bauer in the Green primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jo Crain
Jo Crain
 
57.5
 
902
Image of Jerome H. Bauer
Jerome H. Bauer
 
42.5
 
666

Total votes: 1,568
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

Japheth Campbell advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Japheth Campbell
Japheth Campbell Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
5,357

Total votes: 5,357
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: United States Senate election in Missouri, 2016
U.S. Senate, Missouri General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRoy Blunt Incumbent 49.2% 1,378,458
     Democratic Jason Kander 46.4% 1,300,200
     Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2.4% 67,738
     Green Johnathan McFarland 1.1% 30,743
     Constitution Fred Ryman 0.9% 25,407
     N/A Write-in 0% 95
Total Votes 2,802,641
Source: Missouri Secretary of State
U.S. Senate, Missouri Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJason Kander 69.9% 223,492
Cori Bush 13.3% 42,453
Chief Wana Dubie 9.5% 30,432
Robert Mack 7.3% 23,509
Total Votes 319,886
Source: Missouri Secretary of State
U.S. Senate, Missouri Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRoy Blunt 72.6% 481,444
Kristi Nichols 20.2% 134,025
Ryan Luethy 4.4% 29,328
Bernie Mowinski 2.8% 18,789
Total Votes 663,586
Source: Missouri Secretary of State

2012

See also: United States Senate elections in Missouri, 2012
U.S. Senate, Missouri, General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngClaire McCaskill Incumbent 54.8% 1,494,125
     Republican Todd Akin 39.1% 1,066,159
     Libertarian Jonathan Dine 6.1% 165,468
     Write-in Ted Kimzey 0% 15
     Write-in Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. 0% 9
     Write-in William Dean 0% 6
     Write-in Bernie Mowinksi 0% 5
     Write-in Charlie L. Bailey 0% 4
     Write-in Arnie C. "AC" Dienoff 0% 2
Total Votes 2,725,793
Source: Missouri Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"
US Senate - Missouri Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Akin 36% 217,468
John G. Brunner 30% 180,821
Sarah Steelman 29.2% 176,189
Jerry Beck 1.6% 9,791
Hector Maldonado 1.2% 7,412
Robert (Bob) Poole 1% 6,097
Mark Memoly 0.5% 3,200
Mark Patrick Lodes 0.4% 2,282
Total Votes 603,260

2022 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:

See also

Missouri 2022 primaries 2022 U.S. Congress elections
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Missouri congressional delegation
Voting in Missouri
Missouri elections:
20222021202020192018
Democratic primary battlegrounds
Republican primary battlegrounds
U.S. Senate Democratic primaries
U.S. Senate Republican primaries
U.S. House Democratic primaries
U.S. House Republican primaries
U.S. Congress elections
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
Special elections
Ballot access

External links

Footnotes

  1. Politico, "GOP Sen. Roy Blunt will not run for reelection," March 8, 2021
  2. Trudy Busch Valentine's 2022 campaign website, "About," accessed August 16, 2022
  3. Missouri Independent, "Beer heiress Trudy Busch Valentine captures Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate," August 2, 2022
  4. Trudy Busch Valentine's 2022 campaign website, "Trudy Busch Valentine Announces Campaign for U.S. Senate," March 28, 2022
  5. Eric Schmitt's 2022 campaign website, "Issues," accessed August 16, 2022
  6. The special Senate election in California was for the same seat up for regular election. There were, then, 36 total Senate elections for 35 total seats.
  7. Two independents who caucus with Democrats are included with Democrats in the 50-50 split count.
  8. Trafalgar Group, "MO US Sen General – Oct-Nov 2022," November 3, 2022
  9. The Hill, " Schmitt holds double-digit lead in Missouri Senate race: poll," November 1, 2022
  10. Missouri Scout, "MOScout Weekender," October 29, 2022
  11. Twitter, "Eric Schmitt on October 17, 2022," accessed October 17, 2022
  12. St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Valentine pours another $3.3 million into her bid for Missouri’s Senate seat," October 17, 2022
  13. KZRG, "The National Education Association endorses Missouri Senate Candidate Trudy Busch Valentine," October 12, 2022
  14. St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Wood abandons independent bid for Missouri’s US Senate seat," August 23, 2022
  15. National Review, "Three Former GOP Missouri Senators Endorse Eric Schmitt," August 19, 2022
  16. Fox2Now, "Outgoing Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt endorses Eric Schmitt to replace him," August 18, 2022
  17. Fox2Now, "Josh Hawley after Eric Schmitt’s primary win: ‘I absolutely endorse him,'" August 3, 2022
  18. KSDK, "Jack Danforth backing independent campaign for US Senate," June 30, 2022
  19. Missouri Stands United, "Home," accessed August 16, 2022
  20. Southeast Missourian, "Missouri U.S. Senate candidates debate, but Schmitt a no show," September 19, 2022
  21. For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
  22. Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
  23. 23.0 23.1 RV=Registered Voters
    LV=Likely Voters
  24. 24.0 24.1 The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
  25. Includes responses for "Undecided" (2%) and "Jonathan Dine" (2%).
  26. Includes responses for "Undecided" (4%), "Jonathan Dine" (2%), and "Paul Venable" (1%).
  27. Includes responses for "Undecided" (10%) and "Someone Else" (3%).
  28. Includes responses for "Undecided" (14%) and "Another Candidate" (4%).
  29. Includes responses for "Not sure" (7%), "Jonathan Dine" (1%), and "Paul Venable" (1%).
  30. Includes responses for "Not sure" (8%) and "Other" (5%).
  31. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  32. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  33. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  34. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  35. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  36. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  37. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
  38. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
  39. Amee LaTour, Email correspondence with the Center for Responsive Politics, August 5, 2022
  40. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022
  41. This analysis includes Missouri's 114 counties and the independent city of St. Louis.


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Bob Onder (R)
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Republican Party (8)
Democratic Party (2)