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United States Senate election in Missouri, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary)

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U.S. Senate, Missouri
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 29, 2022
Primary: August 2, 2022
General: November 8, 2022
Pre-election incumbent:
Roy Blunt (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Missouri
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
See also
U.S. Senate, Missouri
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Missouri elections, 2022
U.S. Congress elections, 2022
U.S. Senate elections, 2022
U.S. House elections, 2022

A Democratic Party primary took place on August 2, 2022, in Missouri to determine which Democratic candidate would run in the state's general election on November 8, 2022.

Trudy Busch Valentine advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 29, 2022
August 2, 2022
November 8, 2022


Heading into the election, the incumbent was Roy Blunt (Republican), who was first elected in 2010. Blunt announced on March 8, 2021, that he would not seek election to a third term in 2022.[1]

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Missouri utilizes an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[2][3][4]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

This page focuses on Missouri's United States Senate Democratic primary. For more in-depth information on the state's Republican primary and the general election, see the following pages:

HOTP-Dem-Ad-1-small.png

Candidates and election results

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Trudy Busch Valentine
Trudy Busch Valentine
 
43.2
 
158,957
Image of Lucas Kunce
Lucas Kunce Candidate Connection
 
38.3
 
141,203
Image of Spencer Toder
Spencer Toder Candidate Connection
 
4.7
 
17,465
Image of Carla Wright
Carla Wright Candidate Connection
 
3.9
 
14,438
Image of Gena Ross
Gena Ross Candidate Connection
 
2.4
 
8,749
Image of Jewel Kelly, Jr.
Jewel Kelly, Jr. Candidate Connection
 
1.8
 
6,464
Image of Lewis Rolen
Lewis Rolen Candidate Connection
 
1.4
 
5,247
Image of Pat Kelly
Pat Kelly Candidate Connection
 
1.4
 
5,002
Image of Ronald William Harris
Ronald William Harris Candidate Connection
 
1.1
 
4,074
Image of Joshua Shipp
Joshua Shipp Candidate Connection
 
0.9
 
3,334
Image of Clarence Taylor
Clarence Taylor Candidate Connection
 
0.9
 
3,322

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 368,255
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

News and conflicts in this primary

This race was featured in The Heart of the Primaries, a newsletter capturing stories related to conflicts within each major party. Click here to read more about conflict in this and other 2022 Democratic Senate primaries. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter.

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[5] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[6] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.

U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022
Report Close of books Filing deadline
Year-end 2021 12/31/2021 1/31/2022
April quarterly 3/31/2022 4/15/2022
July quarterly 6/30/2022 7/15/2022
October quarterly 9/30/2022 10/15/2022
Pre-general 10/19/2022 10/27/2022
Post-general 11/28/2022 12/08/2022
Year-end 2022 12/31/2022 1/31/2023


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Trudy Busch Valentine Democratic Party $18,322,282 $18,028,200 $294,082 As of December 31, 2022
Ronald William Harris Democratic Party $7,975 $7,929 $46 As of December 31, 2022
Jewel Kelly, Jr. Democratic Party $13,872 $13,872 $0 As of December 31, 2022
Pat Kelly Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Lucas Kunce Democratic Party $5,735,055 $5,727,773 $7,282 As of December 31, 2022
Lewis Rolen Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Gena Ross Democratic Party $6,148 $6,148 $0 As of September 30, 2022
Joshua Shipp Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Clarence Taylor Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Spencer Toder Democratic Party $1,295,878 $1,287,477 $0 As of December 31, 2022
Carla Wright Democratic Party $10,239 $10,239 $0 As of December 2, 2022

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Missouri in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Missouri, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2022
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Missouri U.S. Senate Ballot-qualified party N/A $500.00 3/29/2022 Source
Missouri U.S. Senate Unaffiliated 10,000 N/A 8/1/2022 Source

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
  • Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
  • State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

Presidential elections

See also: Presidential voting trends in Missouri and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Missouri, 2022
District Incumbent Party PVI
Missouri's 1st Cori Bush Electiondot.png Democratic D+27
Missouri's 2nd Ann Wagner Ends.png Republican R+7
Missouri's 3rd Blaine Luetkemeyer Ends.png Republican R+16
Missouri's 4th Open Ends.png Republican R+23
Missouri's 5th Emanuel Cleaver Electiondot.png Democratic D+11
Missouri's 6th Sam Graves Ends.png Republican R+21
Missouri's 7th Open Ends.png Republican R+24
Missouri's 8th Jason Smith Ends.png Republican R+28


2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Missouri[7]
District Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
Missouri's 1st 78.4% 20.0%
Missouri's 2nd 45.3% 53.0%
Missouri's 3rd 35.9% 62.2%
Missouri's 4th 29.3% 68.7%
Missouri's 5th 62.2% 35.9%
Missouri's 6th 30.6% 67.7%
Missouri's 7th 28.4% 69.8%
Missouri's 8th 23.6% 75.0%


2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:


Following the 2020 presidential election, 64.2% of Missourians lived in one of the state's 111 Solid Republican counties, which voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 35.8% lived in one of four Solid Democratic counties. Overall, Missouri was Solid Republican, having voted for Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Donald Trump (R) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Missouri following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.[8]

Historical voting trends

Missouri presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 14 Democratic wins
  • 17 Republican wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party D R R D D R R R D D D D D R D D D R R D R R R D D R R R R R R

Statewide elections

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from Missouri

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Missouri.

U.S. Senate election results in Missouri
Race Winner Runner up
2018 51.4%Republican Party 45.6%Democratic Party
2016 49.3%Republican Party 46.2%Democratic Party
2012 54.8%Democratic Party 39.0%Republican Party
2010 54.3%Republican Party 40.6%Democratic Party
2006 49.6%Democratic Party 47.3%Republican Party
Average 51.9 43.7

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of Missouri

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Missouri.

Gubernatorial election results in Missouri
Race Winner Runner up
2020 57.1%Republican Party 40.7%Democratic Party
2016 51.1%Republican Party 45.6%Democratic Party
2012 54.8%Democratic Party 42.5%Republican Party
2008 58.4%Democratic Party 39.5%Republican Party
2004 50.8%Republican Party 47.8%Democratic Party
Average 54.4 43.2

State partisanship

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Missouri's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Missouri, November 2022
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 0 2 2
Republican 2 6 8
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 8 10

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Missouri's top four state executive offices as November 2022.

State executive officials in Missouri, November 2022
Office Officeholder
Governor Republican Party Mike Parson
Lieutenant Governor Republican Party Mike Kehoe
Secretary of State Republican Party Jay Ashcroft
Attorney General Republican Party Eric Schmitt

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Missouri General Assembly as of November 2022.

Missouri State Senate

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 10
     Republican Party 24
     Vacancies 0
Total 34

Missouri House of Representatives

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 48
     Republican Party 107
     Vacancies 8
Total 163

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Missouri was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Missouri Party Control: 1992-2022
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  Ten years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Governor R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Missouri and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

Demographic Data for Missouri
Missouri United States
Population 5,988,927 308,745,538
Land area (sq mi) 68,746 3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White 82.2% 72.5%
Black/African American 11.5% 12.7%
Asian 2% 5.5%
Native American 0.4% 0.8%
Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.2%
Other (single race) 1.2% 4.9%
Multiple 2.6% 3.3%
Hispanic/Latino 4.2% 18%
Education
High school graduation rate 89.9% 88%
College graduation rate 29.2% 32.1%
Income
Median household income $55,461 $62,843
Persons below poverty level 13.7% 13.4%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Politico, "GOP Sen. Roy Blunt will not run for reelection," March 8, 2021
  2. ↑ NCSL,"State Primary Election Types," accessed April 4, 2023
  3. ↑ Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  4. ↑ John R. Ashcroft Missouri Secretary of State,"Frequently Asked Questions," accessed April 4, 2023
  5. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  6. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022
  8. ↑ This analysis includes Missouri's 114 counties and the independent city of St. Louis.


Missouri's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Josh Hawley (R)
Eric Schmitt (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Bob Onder (R)
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Republican Party (8)
Democratic Party (2)


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