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United States Senate election in Missouri (August 7, 2018 Republican primary)

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U.S. Senate, Missouri
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 27, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Claire McCaskill (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Missouri
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Missouri
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Missouri elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Eleven Republicans ran for the party's nomination to challenge incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill, the last Democrat in Missouri to win a statewide election since 2012, in the general election.[1] CNN named it the Democratic seat most likely to flip in March 2018.[2]

The Republican field included Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Tony Monetti, 2016 Libertarian presidential candidate Austin Petersen, and Navy veteran Courtland Sykes.

Hawley received early support from across the Republican Party, including President Donald Trump (R), Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), and the Senate Conservatives Fund. Club for Growth also raised $10 million to support Hawley's run, before he had declared his candidacy.[3]

This page focuses on the Republican primary. For an overview of the general election, click here.



Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 7, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Josh Hawley
Josh Hawley
 
58.6
 
389,006
Image of Tony Monetti
Tony Monetti
 
9.8
 
64,718
Image of Austin Petersen
Austin Petersen
 
8.3
 
54,810
Image of Kristi Nichols
Kristi Nichols
 
7.5
 
49,554
Image of Christina Smith
Christina Smith
 
5.3
 
34,948
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Ken Patterson
 
2.9
 
19,537
Image of Peter Pfeifer
Peter Pfeifer
 
2.5
 
16,557
Image of Courtland Sykes
Courtland Sykes
 
2.1
 
13,862
Image of Fred Ryman
Fred Ryman
 
1.3
 
8,763
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Brian Hagg
 
1.0
 
6,913
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Bradley Krembs Candidate Connection
 
0.7
 
4,885

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 663,553
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Campaign contributions

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[4]

Republican Party Republicans



Satellite spending

  • The nonprofit organization One Nation spent over $2 million in ads supporting Josh Hawley.[5]


Acceptance of Bitcoin campaign contributions

During the primary election, the Petersen campaign accepted campaign contributions denominated in Bitcoin, a digital currency not associated with any government. In an interview with The Western Journal dated December 18, 2017, Petersen explained his support for the currency: "Basically it represents freedom. It’s the real people’s currency because it does not require a central bank." At the time of the article's publication, the largest Bitcoin campaign contribution received by Petersen was equivalent to $500, although Petersen noted that he had been required to turn down a separate Bitcoin contribution because it exceeded the individual contribution limit.[6]

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018
Poll Josh Hawley Claire McCaskillMargin of ErrorSample Size
Daily Kos
January 3-4, 2018		 49%45%+/-2.91,122
Public Policy Polling
January 8-9, 2018		 44%45%+/-3.2965
Axios/Survey Monkey
February 12-March 5, 2018		 52%44%+/-N/A17,289
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Noteworthy events

This section highlights issues raised during the campaign and major policy differences between candidates.

Gender issues

  • During an event hosted by the Missouri Renewal Project in December 2017, Hawley attributed an increase in sex trafficking to the sexual revolution of the 1960s. He said, "We have a human trafficking crisis in our state and in this city and in our country because people are willing to purchase women, young women, and treat them like commodities. There is a market for it. Why is there? Because our culture has completely lost its way. The sexual revolution has led to exploitation of women on a scale that we would never have imagined, never have imagined."[7] Incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) responded in a tweet, "I didn’t go to one of those fancy private schools, but the history I learned in public schools & Mizzou taught me that the evidence of trafficking of women for sex goes back to before 2000 BC. It didn’t begin with women’s rights and the birth control pill."[7]
  • In a Facebook post on January 30, 2018, Sykes detailed his views on women's rights. "I want daughters to have their own intelligence, their own dignity, their own workspace, and their own degrees. I want them to build home-based enterprises and live in homes shared with good husbands, and I don't want to them [to] grow up into career-obsessed banshees who forego home life and children and the happiness of family to become nail-biting manophobic [sic] hell-bent feminist she-devils who shriek from the tops of a thousand tall buildings they are [sic] think they could have leaped over in a single bound—had men not 'suppressed them.' That's just nuts. It always was. I support women's rights but not the kind that has oppressed natural womanhood for five long decades," he wrote.[8]

Campaign tactics and strategies

Noteworthy events

President Trump campaign appearance

On March 14, 2018, Pres. Donald Trump (R) visited Missouri for a campaign appearance on behalf of Josh Hawley (R). The president said that "Josh is doing a fantastic job, I can tell you that. He’s working hard."[9] The president also appeared at a fundraiser where an estimated $2 million was raised for the Hawley campaign and the Republican Party of Missouri.[10]

Endorsements

Republican candidate endorsements
Endorsement Hawley Sykes
Elected officials
President Donald Trump (R)[11] ✔
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)[11] ✔
Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.)[12] ✔
Missouri Treasurer Eric Schmitt (R)[13] ✔
Former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R)[14] ✔
Missouri State Rep. Bryan Spencer (R)[15] ✔
Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R)[16] ✔
National party figures
Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon[11] ✔
Organizations
Club for Growth PAC[17] ✔
Senate Conservatives Fund[18] ✔


Race ratings

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt RepublicanToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Election history

2016

See also: United States Senate election in Missouri, 2016

Ballotpedia rated the race for Missouri's U.S. Senate seat as a battleground, in part, because of the Democratic Party's effort to turn a state that leaned Republican into Democratic territory. However, incumbent Roy Blunt (R) won re-election, defeating Jason Kander (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Blunt also defeated Jonathan Dine (L), Fred Ryman (Constitution Party), Johnathan McFarland (G), and write-in candidates Gina Bufe and Patrick Lee.

Kander's strategy was to run as a political outsider and try to paint Blunt as a Washington insider. According to The Kansas City Star, “Kander labels Blunt the 'consummate Washington insider' and insists Blunt has lost touch with voters who sent him to the Capitol. Kander further contends that Blunt is far too cozy with lobbyists and is in fact married to one while three of his children are lobbyists.” In response, Blunt tried to tie Kander to "Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama, both of whom are unpopular in the state.”[19]

Satellite groups also sought to influence the race by spending $44,961,510. In the last weeks of the race, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee planned to spend $3.5 million to support Kander's bid to unseat Blunt. Republicans also spent money on the race to protect Blunt's seat and their majority in the Senate. The Senate Leadership Fund invested $2.5 million in Missouri in September.[20][21][22]

In his concession speech, Kander encouraged his supporters, especially his young supporters, to stay involved in politics despite the results. He said, "They need to know that I'm not OK with them stepping away, that this country is a place you've got to stay invested in. This generation is not going anywhere."[23]

In his victory speech, Blunt said, "What a great moment for our state." Blunt, who distanced himself from Trump during the campaign, was optimistic about Republican control of the presidency and Congress. He said, "A Republican president and a Republican Senate and a Republican House can do things to change this country and focus again on opportunity."[23]

U.S. Senate, Missouri General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRoy Blunt Incumbent 49.2% 1,378,458
     Democratic Jason Kander 46.4% 1,300,200
     Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2.4% 67,738
     Green Johnathan McFarland 1.1% 30,743
     Constitution Fred Ryman 0.9% 25,407
     N/A Write-in 0% 95
Total Votes 2,802,641
Source: Missouri Secretary of State


U.S. Senate, Missouri Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJason Kander 69.9% 223,492
Cori Bush 13.3% 42,453
Chief Wana Dubie 9.5% 30,432
Robert Mack 7.3% 23,509
Total Votes 319,886
Source: Missouri Secretary of State


U.S. Senate, Missouri Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRoy Blunt 72.6% 481,444
Kristi Nichols 20.2% 134,025
Ryan Luethy 4.4% 29,328
Bernie Mowinski 2.8% 18,789
Total Votes 663,586
Source: Missouri Secretary of State

2012

See also: United States Senate elections in Missouri, 2012

On November 6, 2012, Incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) won re-election to the United States Senate. She defeated Todd Akin (R), Jonathan Dine (L) and several write-in candidates in the general election.

U.S. Senate, Missouri, General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngClaire McCaskill Incumbent 54.8% 1,494,125
     Republican Todd Akin 39.1% 1,066,159
     Libertarian Jonathan Dine 6.1% 165,468
     Write-in Ted Kimzey 0% 15
     Write-in Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr. 0% 9
     Write-in William Dean 0% 6
     Write-in Bernie Mowinksi 0% 5
     Write-in Charlie L. Bailey 0% 4
     Write-in Arnie C. "AC" Dienoff 0% 2
Total Votes 2,725,793
Source: Missouri Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Missouri. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Missouri with 56.8 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 38.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1820 and 2016, Missouri voted Democratic 60 percent of the time and Republican 36 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Missouri voted Republican all five times.[24]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Missouri. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[25][26]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 43 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 42.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 42.3 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 120 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 120 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 39.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Missouri heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Missouri General Assembly. They had a 109-45 majority in the state House and a 23-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Missouri was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Missouri elections, 2018

Missouri held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Missouri
 MissouriU.S.
Total population:6,076,204316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):68,7423,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:82.6%73.6%
Black/African American:11.5%12.6%
Asian:1.8%5.1%
Native American:0.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:88.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.1%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$48,173$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Missouri.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Missouri's three largest cities were Kansas City (pop. est. 488,943), St. Louis (pop. est. 308,626), and Springfield (pop. est. 167,376).[27][28]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Missouri from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Missouri Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Missouri every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Missouri 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 56.4% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 37.9% 18.5%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 53.8% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.4% 9.4%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 49.4% Democratic Party Barack Obama 49.3% 0.1%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 53.3% Democratic Party John Kerry 46.1% 7.2%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 50.4% Democratic Party Al Gore 47.1% 3.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Missouri from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Missouri 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Roy Blunt 49.2% Democratic Party Jason Kander 46.4% 2.8%
2012 Democratic Party Claire McCaskill 54.8% Republican Party Todd Akin 39.1% 15.7%
2010 Republican Party Roy Blunt 54.2% Democratic Party Robin Carnahan 40.6% 13.6%
2006 Democratic Party Claire McCaskill 49.6% Republican Party Jim Talent 47.3% 2.3%
2004 Republican Party Kit Bond 56.1% Democratic Party Nancy Farmer 42.8% 13.3%
2000 Democratic Party Mel Carnahan 50.5% Republican Party John Ashcroft 48.4% 2.1%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Missouri.

Election results (Governor), Missouri 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Eric Greitens 51.1% Democratic Party Chris Koster 45.5% 5.6%
2012 Democratic Party Jay Nixon 54.8% Republican Party Dave Spence 42.5% 12.3%
2008 Democratic Party Jay Nixon 58.4% Republican Party Kenny Hulshof 39.5% 18.9%
2004 Republican Party Matt Blunt 50.8% Democratic Party Claire McCaskill 47.9% 2.9%
2000 Democratic Party Bob Holden 49.1% Republican Party Jim Talent 48.2% 0.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Missouri in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Missouri 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2014 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2012 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2010 Republican Party 6 33.3% Democratic Party 3 66.7% R+3
2008 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2006 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2004 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2002 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Missouri Party Control: 1992-2025
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  Thirteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ RealClearPolitics, "Missouri Republican Hawley Announces Run for Senate," October 10, 2017
  2. ↑ CNN, "The 10 Senate seats most likely to switch parties: March edition," March 4, 2018
  3. ↑ Politico, "Missouri’s $10M man," August 14, 2017
  4. ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
  5. ↑ Politico, "Anti-Trump candidates retreat," June 14, 2018
  6. ↑ The Western Journal, "Republican Senate Candidate Reveals New Plan for Political Donations," December 18, 2017
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Kansas City Star, "Josh Hawley blames sex trafficking on ‘sexual revolution’ of 1960s in speech to pastors," January 31, 2018
  8. ↑ Facebook, "Courtland Sykes for Senate," January 30, 2018
  9. ↑ St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Trump pitches benefits of his tax cuts in Boeing appearance," March 15, 2018
  10. ↑ St. Louis Public Radio, "Trump touches down in St. Louis to bolster Hawley’s Senate bid," March 14, 2018
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 Politico, "The top 10 Senate races of 2018," December 24, 2017
  12. ↑ Kansas City Star, "What does Sen. Blunt think about Hawley’s sex trafficking remarks? ‘I haven’t looked,'" February 2, 2018
  13. ↑ St. Louis Post Dispatch, "Schmitt out of Missouri's U.S. Senate race, backs Hawley for GOP nomination," August 15, 2017
  14. ↑ The Huffington Post, "Roy Moore Endorses Missouri GOP Candidate Who Expects ‘Home Cooked Dinner At Six,'" February 26, 2018
  15. ↑ Facebook, "Courtland Sykes," July 23, 2018
  16. ↑ Twitter, "Joe Arpaio," August 4, 2018
  17. ↑ Kansas City Star, "McCaskill tears into GOP challenger Hawley during Jackson County visit," October 10, 2017
  18. ↑ Senate Conservatives Fund, "Josh Hawley for Senate in Missouri," December 15, 2017
  19. ↑ Kansas City Star, "Roy Blunt the insider vs. Jason Kander the outsider sums up U.S. Senate contest in Missouri," accessed September 27, 2016
  20. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed November 12, 2016
  21. ↑ St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Missouri Senate race unique in complex national cross-currents of 2016," accessed September 30, 2016
  22. ↑ National Review, "Missouri’s Senate Race Wasn’t Supposed to Be This Close," accessed September 30, 2016
  23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 The Military Times, "Incumbent Blunt defeats Kander in Missouri Senate race," accessed November 12, 2016
  24. ↑ 270towin.com, "Missouri," accessed June 29, 2017
  25. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  26. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  27. ↑ Missouri Demographics, "Missouri Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
  28. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Missouri," accessed September 5, 2018


Missouri's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Josh Hawley (R)
Eric Schmitt (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Bob Onder (R)
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Republican Party (8)
Democratic Party (2)


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