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United States Senate election in Montana (June 5, 2018 Democratic primary)

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2020
2014
U.S. Senate, Montana
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
Green primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 12, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Jon Tester (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Montana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Montana
U.S. SenateAt-large
Montana elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

This page focuses on the Democratic primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here. This seat was rated Lean Democratic by two outlets as of December 27, 2017.[3] CNN listed this seat among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.[4]

In 2012, incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) did not face a Democratic primary challenger and defeated his Republican rival by four percentage points. This race was one of at least nine top-ballot 2012 races that contained Libertarian candidates who received more total votes than was the difference between the Democratic winner and the GOP runner-up.[5] President Donald Trump also won the state in 2016 by 20 points, making this Senate seat a target for the Republican Party to target to flip.

Tester's campaign reported raising $1.2 million in the third quarter of 2017, bringing his total cash on hand to $5.4 million to defend his seat.[6]


Montana voter? Here's what you need to know.
Primary electionJune 5, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineMarch 12, 2018
Registration deadlineMay 7, 2018 (regular registration), June 5, 2018 (late registration)[7]
Absentee application deadlineJune 4, 2018 (12pm MT)[7]
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeOpen
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Incumbent Jon Tester advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Montana on June 5, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Montana

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jon Tester
Jon Tester
 
100.0
 
114,948

Total votes: 114,948
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Who is going to win?

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Montana, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Toss-up Toss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Tilt Democratic Tilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Democratic Lean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[8]=

Democratic Party Democrats



Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 56 Montana counties—5.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Blaine County, Montana 2.46% 15.32% 19.24%
Hill County, Montana 17.18% 3.50% 12.21%
Roosevelt County, Montana 6.49% 15.58% 26.27%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Montana with 56.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 35.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, Montana voted Republican 65.6 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Montana voted Republican all five times.[9]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Montana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[10][11]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 34.7 points. Trump won 14 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Montana heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Montana State Legislature. They had a 59-41 majority in the state House and a 32-18 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Montana was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Steve Bullock (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Montana elections, 2018

Montana held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Montana
 MontanaU.S.
Total population:1,032,073316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):145,5463,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:89.2%73.6%
Black/African American:0.5%12.6%
Asian:0.7%5.1%
Native American:6.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:92.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:29.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,169$53,889
Persons below poverty level:17%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Montana.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Montana's three largest cities were Billings (pop. est. 109,642), Missoula (pop. est. 73,340), and Great Falls (pop. est. 58,876).[12][13]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Montana from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Montana Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Montana every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Montana 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 55.6% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 35.4% 20.2%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 55.3% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.7% 13.6%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 49.5% Democratic Party Barack Obama 47.2% 2.3%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 59.1% Democratic Party John Kerry 38.6% 20.5%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 58.4% Democratic Party Al Gore 33.4% 25.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Montana from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Montana 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Steve Daines 57.9% Democratic Party Amanda Curtis 40.0% 17.9%
2012 Democratic Party Jon Tester 48.6% Republican Party Denny Rehberg 44.6% 4.0%
2008 Democratic Party Max Baucus 72.9% Republican Party Bob Kelleher 27.1% 45.8%
2006 Democratic Party Jon Tester 49.2% Republican Party Conrad Burns 48.3% 0.9%
2002 Democratic Party Max Baucus 62.7% Republican Party Mike Taylor 31.7% 31.0%
2000 Republican Party Conrad Burns 50.6% Democratic Party Brian Schweitzer 47.2% 3.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Montana.

Election results (Governor), Montana 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Steve Bullock 50.2% Republican Party Greg Gianforte 46.4% 3.8%
2012 Democratic Party Steve Bullock 48.9% Republican Party Jon Sonju 47.3% 1.6%
2008 Democratic Party Brian Schweitzer 65.5% Republican Party Roy Brown 32.5% 33.0%
2004 Democratic Party Brian Schweitzer 50.4% Republican Party Bob Brown 46.0% 4.4%
2000 Republican Party Judy Martz 51.0% Democratic Party Mark O'Keefe 47.1% 3.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Montana in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Montana 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2014 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2012 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2010 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2008 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2006 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2004 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2002 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1
2000 Republican Party 1 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Montana Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Fifteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R
Senate D D D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D R R R R R R R R R R R R S S R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. If one missed the Oct. 9 deadline, he or she could have still voted in the election by registering in person at the county election office. Late registration was available until the close of polls on Election Day.
  2. If one missed the Oct. 9 deadline, he or she could have still voted in the election by registering in person at the county election office. Late registration was available until the close of polls on Election Day.
  3. Ratings are based on projections found in Governing, Larry Sabato, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and The Cook Political Report. These ratings are updated periodically throughout the election season.
  4. CNN, "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2018," January 3, 2018
  5. Daily Kos, "Libertarians provided the margin for Democrats and at least nine elections," November 15, 2012
  6. KTVQ, "Sen. Tester approaches $8M in fundraising for 2018 re-election," October 6, 2017
  7. 7.0 7.1 Montana Secretary of State, "2018 election calendar," accessed February 1, 2018
  8. FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
  9. 270towin.com, "Montana," accessed June 29, 2017
  10. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  11. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  12. Montana Demographics, "Montana Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
  13. U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Montana," accessed September 4, 2018


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Republican Party (4)