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United States Senate election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: N/A (no formal registration process)
- Early voting: Sept. 27 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 5
- Online registration: N/A
- Same-day registration: N/A
- Voter ID: ID required
- Poll times: Varies according to the size of the precinct
2022 →
← 2016
|
| U.S. Senate, North Dakota |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: April 9, 2018 |
| Primary: June 12, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Heidi Heitkamp (Democrat) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: Open between 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.; close between 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. Voting in North Dakota |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Lean Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • At-large North Dakota elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) won the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in North Dakota, defeating Air Force veteran Thomas O'Neill by more than 70 points.
Cramer announced he was running for the seat on February 16, 2018, noting that President Donald Trump (R) had encouraged him to run.[1] The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball both changed this race rating from Lean Democrat to Toss-up, in response to the news.
Former North Dakota state party chair Gary Emineth (R) had announced he was running for the seat on January 31, 2018. He decided to launch a bid after Cramer, whose campaign he managed in 2012, had initially declined to run. He withdrew from the race on February 13, 2018, citing Cramer's renewed interest in the seat.[2][3] [4]
State Sen. Tom Campbell (R), who had been running ads across the state highlighting his career as a potato farmer and self-identification as a conservative outsider, withdrew from the race and endorsed Cramer on February 16, 2018. He also announced that he would run for Cramer's at-large seat in the U.S. House.[5][6][7]
Former U.S. Rep. Rick Berg, who won the Republican nomination in 2012 and lost to Heitkamp by 1 point, was also rumored to be circling the Republican primary. On January 11, 2018, he announced that he would not enter the race.[8]
| North Dakota voter? Here's what you need to know. | |
|---|---|
| Primary election | June 12, 2018 |
| Candidate filing deadline | April 9, 2018 |
| Registration deadline | N/A[9][10] |
| Absentee application deadline | June 11, 2018[11] |
| General election | November 6, 2018 |
| Voting information | |
| Primary type | Open |
| Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day. | |
For more on related elections, please see:
- United States Senate election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018
- United States Senate Democratic Party primaries, 2018
- United States Senate Republican Party primaries, 2018
- Democratic Party primaries in North Dakota, 2018
- Republican Party primaries in North Dakota, 2018
Candidates and election results
Kevin Cramer defeated Thomas O'Neill in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate North Dakota on June 12, 2018.
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. Senate North Dakota
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Kevin Cramer | 87.9 | 61,529 |
| Thomas O'Neill | 12.1 | 8,509 | ||
| Total votes: 70,038 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Gary Emineth (R)
Race ratings
| Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, 2018 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Lean Republican | Tilt Republican | Tilt Republican | Tilt Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Toss-up | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Campaign finance
The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[12]
Republicans
Endorsements
Cramer
- President Donald Trump (R)[13]
- North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R)[14]
- Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.)[15]
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
| U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Republican primary | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Tom Campbell (R) | Rick Berg (R) | Other candidate(s) | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
| 1892 Polling October 11-12, 2017 | 32% | 34% | 9% | 35% | +/-4.0 | 400 | |||||||||||||
| 1892 Polling May 30-June 1, 2017 | 7% | 39% | 9% | 45% | +/-4.0 | 400 | |||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Four of 53 North Dakota counties—7.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Benson County, North Dakota | 4.33% | 17.01% | 33.53% | ||||
| Ransom County, North Dakota | 15.77% | 13.77% | 15.33% | ||||
| Sargent County, North Dakota | 19.73% | 9.77% | 17.49% | ||||
| Steele County, North Dakota | 17.72% | 1.92% | 20.35% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Dakota with 63 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican 81.25 percent of the time and Democratic 15.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican all five times.[16]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Dakota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[17][18]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won eight out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won four out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 25.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 43 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 38.9 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 25.25% | 72.44% | R+47.2 | 15.70% | 77.60% | R+61.9 | R |
| 2 | 23.50% | 74.04% | R+50.5 | 12.81% | 81.65% | R+68.8 | R |
| 3 | 34.53% | 62.62% | R+28.1 | 20.28% | 69.79% | R+49.5 | R |
| 4 | 44.65% | 53.30% | R+8.7 | 31.23% | 62.19% | R+31 | R |
| 5 | 35.04% | 62.99% | R+27.9 | 25.32% | 65.85% | R+40.5 | R |
| 6 | 33.60% | 64.02% | R+30.4 | 19.03% | 73.86% | R+54.8 | R |
| 7 | 28.93% | 68.80% | R+39.9 | 18.95% | 74.05% | R+55.1 | R |
| 8 | 28.39% | 69.14% | R+40.7 | 16.17% | 78.39% | R+62.2 | R |
| 9 | 73.98% | 24.10% | D+49.9 | 57.16% | 33.14% | D+24 | D |
| 10 | 40.63% | 56.80% | R+16.2 | 23.79% | 68.63% | R+44.8 | R |
| 11 | 54.52% | 42.92% | D+11.6 | 47.09% | 42.67% | D+4.4 | D |
| 12 | 40.44% | 56.89% | R+16.5 | 28.16% | 63.38% | R+35.2 | R |
| 13 | 45.20% | 52.76% | R+7.6 | 36.60% | 54.96% | R+18.4 | R |
| 14 | 30.67% | 67.01% | R+36.3 | 19.04% | 74.40% | R+55.4 | R |
| 15 | 43.56% | 53.45% | R+9.9 | 28.47% | 62.14% | R+33.7 | R |
| 16 | 50.78% | 45.95% | D+4.8 | 40.22% | 49.41% | R+9.2 | R |
| 17 | 43.28% | 54.92% | R+11.6 | 36.93% | 56.05% | R+19.1 | R |
| 18 | 55.25% | 41.99% | D+13.3 | 39.68% | 50.13% | R+10.4 | D |
| 19 | 38.30% | 59.10% | R+20.8 | 23.98% | 68.23% | R+44.3 | R |
| 20 | 43.84% | 53.94% | R+10.1 | 28.99% | 61.73% | R+32.7 | D |
| 21 | 58.10% | 37.73% | D+20.4 | 49.24% | 38.72% | D+10.5 | D |
| 22 | 39.93% | 57.89% | R+18 | 30.35% | 60.24% | R+29.9 | R |
| 23 | 48.91% | 48.94% | R+0 | 34.28% | 57.80% | R+23.5 | R |
| 24 | 45.51% | 52.18% | R+6.7 | 30.90% | 59.19% | R+28.3 | R |
| 25 | 41.58% | 56.58% | R+15 | 27.20% | 64.26% | R+37.1 | D |
| 26 | 47.28% | 50.58% | R+3.3 | 30.77% | 59.94% | R+29.2 | R |
| 27 | 43.92% | 53.66% | R+9.7 | 38.23% | 51.62% | R+13.4 | R |
| 28 | 25.69% | 71.88% | R+46.2 | 14.18% | 80.31% | R+66.1 | R |
| 29 | 34.32% | 63.27% | R+28.9 | 20.98% | 72.76% | R+51.8 | R |
| 30 | 34.36% | 63.38% | R+29 | 23.14% | 69.35% | R+46.2 | R |
| 31 | 37.63% | 60.06% | R+22.4 | 24.35% | 68.30% | R+44 | R |
| 32 | 37.65% | 59.45% | R+21.8 | 26.56% | 64.60% | R+38 | R |
| 33 | 26.89% | 70.44% | R+43.6 | 13.37% | 81.32% | R+68 | R |
| 34 | 36.69% | 60.28% | R+23.6 | 23.55% | 67.65% | R+44.1 | R |
| 35 | 37.72% | 59.56% | R+21.8 | 29.88% | 60.59% | R+30.7 | R |
| 36 | 21.01% | 77.00% | R+56 | 11.33% | 83.81% | R+72.5 | R |
| 37 | 26.51% | 71.55% | R+45 | 16.67% | 77.64% | R+61 | R |
| 38 | 30.15% | 67.72% | R+37.6 | 19.59% | 72.28% | R+52.7 | R |
| 39 | 19.92% | 78.02% | R+58.1 | 11.09% | 83.49% | R+72.4 | R |
| 40 | 35.42% | 61.14% | R+25.7 | 25.35% | 63.05% | R+37.7 | R |
| 41 | 42.55% | 55.38% | R+12.8 | 39.53% | 51.32% | R+11.8 | R |
| 42 | 49.85% | 46.46% | D+3.4 | 39.58% | 49.50% | R+9.9 | R |
| 43 | 49.24% | 48.50% | D+0.7 | 41.62% | 50.35% | R+8.7 | R |
| 44 | 52.26% | 44.96% | D+7.3 | 46.38% | 42.62% | D+3.8 | D |
| 45 | 44.75% | 52.72% | R+8 | 35.95% | 54.29% | R+18.3 | R |
| 46 | 45.62% | 52.35% | R+6.7 | 41.96% | 49.55% | R+7.6 | R |
| 47 | 30.74% | 67.39% | R+36.7 | 25.59% | 67.63% | R+42 | R |
| Total | 38.92% | 58.66% | R+19.7 | 27.74% | 64.15% | R+36.4 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in North Dakota heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in North Dakota.
- Republicans held the state's at-large U.S. House seat.
State executives
- As of September 2018, Republicans held nine of 10 state executive positions, with the tenth held by a nonpartisan official.
- The governor of North Dakota was Republican Doug Burgum. Burgum won election in 2016.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the North Dakota State Legislature. They had a 80-13 majority in the state House and a 38-9 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- North Dakota was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: North Dakota elections, 2018
North Dakota held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One seat in the U.S. Senate
- One seat in the U.S. House
- Five state executive seats
- 24 out of 47 seats in the state Senate
- 48 out of 94 seats in the state House
- One of five seats on the state Supreme Court
Demographics
| Demographic data for North Dakota | ||
|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 756,835 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 69,001 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 88.7% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 1.6% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.2% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 5.3% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 2.9% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 91.7% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.7% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $57,181 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 12.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in North Dakota. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, North Dakota's three largest cities were Fargo (pop. est. 120,000), Bismarck (pop. est. 73,000), and Grand Forks (pop. est. 57,000).[19]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the North Dakota Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in North Dakota every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
63.0% |  Hillary Clinton |
27.2% | 35.8% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
58.3% | Barack Obama |
38.7% | 19.6% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
53.3% | Barack Obama |
44.6% | 8.7% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
62.9% | John Kerry |
35.5% | 27.4% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
60.7% | Al Gore |
33.1% | 27.6% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | John Hoeven |
78.5% | Eliot Glassheim |
17.0% | 61.5% |
| 2012 | Heidi Heitkamp |
50.2% | Rick Berg |
49.3% | 0.9% |
| 2010 | John Hoeven |
76.1% | Tracy Potter |
22.2% | 53.9% |
| 2006 | Kent Conrad |
68.8% | Dwight Grotberg |
29.5% | 39.3% |
| 2004 | Byron Dorgan |
68.3% | Mike Liffrig |
31.7% | 36.6% |
| 2000 | Kent Conrad |
61.4% | Duane Sand |
38.6% | 22.8% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in North Dakota.
| Election results (Governor), North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Doug Burgum |
76.5% | Marvin Nelson |
19.4% | 57.1% |
| 2012 | Jack Dalrymple |
63.1% | Ryan Taylor |
34.3% | 28.8% |
| 2008 | John Hoeven |
74.4% | Tim Mathern |
23.5% | 50.9% |
| 2004 | John Hoeven |
71.3% | Joe Satrom |
27.4% | 43.9% |
| 2000 | John Hoeven |
55.0% | Heidi Heitkamp |
45.0% | 10.0% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent North Dakota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 1 |
100.0% | 0 |
0.0% | R+1 |
| 2014 | 1 |
100.0% | 0 |
0.0% | R+1 |
| 2012 | 1 |
100.0% | 0 |
0.0% | R+1 |
| 2010 | 1 |
100.0% | 0 |
0.0% | R+1 |
| 2008 | 0 |
0.0% | 1 |
100.0% | D+1 |
| 2006 | 0 |
0.0% | 1 |
100.0% | D+1 |
| 2004 | 0 |
0.0% | 1 |
100.0% | D+1 |
| 2002 | 0 |
0.0% | 1 |
100.0% | D+1 |
| 2000 | 0 |
0.0% | 1 |
100.0% | D+1 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
North Dakota Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Thirty-one years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018
- United States Senate election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate elections, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections in North Dakota, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ ABC News, "Rep. Cramer officially launches North Dakota Senate bid," February 16, 2018
- ↑ Forum News Service, "Ending speculation, former GOP party chair says he'll seek Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's seat," January 31, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "GOP's Cramer won't run for Senate," January 11, 2018
- ↑ The Washington Post, "North Dakota candidate quits Senate race; expects Cramer run," February 13, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Senate Fundraising 2017-2018," accessed February 8, 2018
- ↑ Tom for North Dakota, "New Crop," September 14, 2017
- ↑ Bismarck Tribune, "Cramer’s Senate run opens up House race," February 16, 2018
- ↑ West Fargo Pioneer, "Berg won't seek Senate race rematch with Heitkamp," January 11, 2018
- ↑ North Dakota does not have voter registration.
- ↑ North Dakota Secretary of State, "North Dakota....The only state without voter registration," accessed February 2, 2018
- ↑ North Dakota Secretary of State, "North Dakota residents choosing to vote absentee or by mail," accessed February 2, 2018
- ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
- ↑ Twitter, "Kevin Cramer," March 2, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Doug for Dakota," February 16, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Robert Lauf," February 16, 2018
- ↑ 270towin.com, "North Dakota," accessed June 29, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ North Dakota Demographics by Cubit, "North Dakota Cities by Population," accessed September 7, 2018
