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United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022

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2024
2018
U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 15, 2022
Primary: May 17, 2022
General: November 8, 2022
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Pennsylvania
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
See also
U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th
Pennsylvania elections, 2022
U.S. Congress elections, 2022
U.S. Senate elections, 2022
U.S. House elections, 2022

John Fetterman (D) defeated Mehmet Oz (R) and six other candidates in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate election on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey (R) did not seek re-election.

Fetterman served as Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor. In 2018, he was elected 58% to 41% on a joint ticket with incumbent Governor Tom Wolf (D). In a campaign ad, Fetterman said, "Our economy is a mess because of Washington, [and] the rich, powerful, the insiders, and the lobbyists. [...] We must make more stuff in America, cut taxes for working families, [and] Congress shouldn't play in the stock market."[1] To read more about Fetterman's key messages, click here.

This race was Oz’s first run for political office. Oz was a retired surgeon and hosted The Dr. Oz Show on daytime television from 2009 to 2022.[2] In a campaign ad, Oz said, "We're facing rising crime, crushing inflation, lives unraveling. [...] I'll heal us, and bring change to our divided nation. Doctors fix big things. I fixed hearts and fought for every last one of them."[3] To read more about Oz's key messages, click here.

CBS News' Sarah Ewall-Wice wrote, "The Senate race in Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground for both parties fighting over who will control the Senate after the November elections. Democrats see it as a possible pickup, with GOP Senator Pat Toomey retiring."[4] Roll Call's Niels Lesniewski wrote, "Keeping the seat in Republican hands is an important part of the party's effort to flip control of the 50-50 Senate."[5]

The Philadelphia Inquirer's Julia Terruso wrote about the candidates' campaigns, saying, "Fetterman’s campaign holds large, energetic rallies, [while] Oz stages smaller community-based events." Terruso also wrote, "Both candidates have slammed the other’s events as evidence of the other’s weaknesses. Fetterman’s campaign tweets out crowd photos, claiming Oz can’t fill big rooms. Oz’s campaign points to Fetterman’s 10-minute speeches and refusal to take reporter or audience questions afterward in an attempt to cast doubt on Fetterman’s health."[6] Fetterman had a stroke on May 15, 2022.

In Pennsylvania's 2018 senate race, incumbent Bob Casey Jr. (D) defeated Lou Barletta (R) 56% to 43%. In 2016, Toomey won re-election against Katie McGinty (D) 49% to 47%. The 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in Pennsylvania were decided by less than 2 percentage points. Pennsylvania was one of two states in 2022, along with Wisconsin, where Republicans defended a seat in a state that Joe Biden (D) won in 2020.

Minor party, independent, and write-in candidates included Ronald Johnson (Constitution Party), Richard Weiss (G), Daniel Wassmer (Keystone Party of Pennsylvania), Erik Gerhardt (L), and Quincy Magee (Independent). Everett Stern (Independent) withdrew from the race on October 25 and endorsed Fetterman.

The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate in 2022. Democrats retained their majority and gained one net seat, with the Senate's post-election partisan balance at 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans.

Thirty-five of 100 seats were up for election, including one special election.[7] At the time of the election, Democrats had an effective majority, with the chamber split 50-50 and Vice President Kamala Harris (D) having the tie-breaking vote.[8] Of the seats up for election in 2022, Democrats held 14 and Republicans held 21.

Richard Weiss (G) and Ronald Johnson (Constitution Party) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. To read those survey responses, click here.

John Fetterman (D) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey in 2018. Click here to read his responses.

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:


Election news

This section includes a timeline of events leading up to the election.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania on November 8, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of John Fetterman
John Fetterman (D)
 
51.2
 
2,751,012
Image of Mehmet Oz
Mehmet Oz (R)
 
46.3
 
2,487,260
Image of Erik Chase Gerhardt
Erik Chase Gerhardt (L)
 
1.4
 
72,887
Image of Richard Weiss
Richard Weiss (G) Candidate Connection
 
0.6
 
30,434
Image of Daniel Wassmer
Daniel Wassmer (Keystone Party of Pennsylvania)
 
0.5
 
26,428
Image of Quincy Magee
Quincy Magee (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
0
Image of Ronald Johnson
Ronald Johnson (Constitution Party) (Write-in) Candidate Connection
 
0.0
 
0

Total votes: 5,368,021
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania

John Fetterman defeated Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, and Alexandria Khalil in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania on May 17, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of John Fetterman
John Fetterman
 
58.6
 
753,557
Image of Conor Lamb
Conor Lamb
 
26.3
 
337,498
Image of Malcolm Kenyatta
Malcolm Kenyatta
 
10.8
 
139,393
Image of Alexandria Khalil
Alexandria Khalil
 
4.2
 
54,460

Total votes: 1,284,908
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania on May 17, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mehmet Oz
Mehmet Oz
 
31.2
 
420,168
Image of David McCormick
David McCormick
 
31.1
 
419,218
Image of Kathy Barnette
Kathy Barnette
 
24.7
 
331,903
Image of Carla Sands
Carla Sands
 
5.4
 
73,360
Image of Jeff Bartos
Jeff Bartos
 
5.0
 
66,684
Image of Sean Gale
Sean Gale
 
1.5
 
20,266
Image of George Bochetto
George Bochetto
 
1.1
 
14,492

Total votes: 1,346,091
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Voting information

See also: Voting in Pennsylvania

Election information in Pennsylvania: Nov. 8, 2022, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

  • In-person: Oct. 24, 2022
  • By mail: Received by Oct. 24, 2022
  • Online: Oct. 24, 2022

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

  • In-person: Nov. 1, 2022
  • By mail: Received by Nov. 1, 2022
  • Online: Nov. 1, 2022

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

  • In-person: Nov. 8, 2022
  • By mail: Received by Nov. 8, 2022

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Varies to Nov. 1, 2022

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

N/A


Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Image of John Fetterman

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

Biography:  Fetterman received a bachelor’s degree from Albright College and a master's degree in public policy from Harvard University. He worked for AmeriCorps in Pittsburgh and Braddock.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Fetterman supported eliminating the filibuster in support of abortion rights and LGBTQIA+ rights. He said, “Women’s reproductive freedom [and] marriage equality must be codified into federal law. I would proudly be that 51st vote to make it happen.”


Fetterman supported legalizing marijuana, saying, "Weed should be legal, nationwide — for jobs, justice, veterans, farmers, and revenue. It’s time to end the failed war on drugs."


Fetterman said he would work to increase jobs and support American manufacturing, unions, and raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.


Fetterman said Oz was out of touch with the needs of Pennsylvanians. On Twitter, Fetterman said, “He came over from his New Jersey mansion to OUR state” and “Someone who doesn’t even know how many homes they own can NOT be trusted to fight for actual Pennsylvanians.”


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania in 2022.

Image of Mehmet Oz

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Oz received a bachelor's degree from Harvard University and a joint M.D. and M.B.A. from the University of Pennsylvania. He had worked as a physician, host of The Dr. Oz Show, and author.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


In a campaign ad, Oz likened himself to former Presidents Ronald Reagan (R) and Donald Trump (R). He said, "You know who else learned in Hollywood? The two greatest presidents in modern history. Like me, they were conservative outsiders who fought the establishment."


Oz said public safety was a priority of his campaign, saying he opposed early release programs and supported funding law enforcement.


Oz criticized the Biden administration's economic policies and said they had led to inflation and supply chain disruptions. Oz said he would "fully confront China and support energy independence."


Oz said Fetterman was, “the most radical candidate we have ever put forth for senator here in Pennsylvania.” He also criticized Fetterman’s absence from the campaign trail, saying “Pennsylvanians deserve debates and a senator who is willing to show up.”


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania in 2022.

Image of Richard Weiss

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Green Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "I am born and raised in Pennsylvania. My parents owned Weiss Bakery in the Brentwood boro of Pittsburgh. My first law job was as an attorney for the federal government in the General Counsel's Office of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in Washington, D.C. Since then my career has been divided between Jakarta, Indonesia, where I worked on foreign investment and project finance, and Pittsburgh where I work on litigation support on a project basis."


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.


The latest UN report on climate change underscores the need to immediately make all efforts to stop emissions of greenhouse gases. This can be accomplished through a "just transition" to renewable energy that provides permanent jobs, and does not cause cancer like mining and burning fossil fuels. The technology exists today. All we need to do is implement it. And the first step is to halt fracking which is ruining the water and health of Pennsylvania.


The Covid-19 pandemic underlines the need for universal healthcare. Many who lose their job cannot afford the payments to maintain their health insurance. In the modern gig economy, many do not receive health insurance through their employer. They may face the choice of paying for rent or healthcare, but not have enough resources for both. The health insurance that is available has too many deductibles, copays and limitations on coverage. Employers who provide healthcare will benefit from Medicare for All by having their costs reduced. Employers who do not provide healthcare will benefit from Medicare for All by having healthier workers. Medicare for All costs less for better care. Everyone benefits from Medicare for All.


The US has a higher incarceration rate than any other developed country in the world. Conditions in prisons are human rights violations, with overcrowding and inadequate food and healthcare. Prisoners are preyed upon with unreasonable charges to buy their own food and communicate with their family. Many inmates of local jails are held without being convicted of any crime solely because they do not have enough money to pay cash bail. Decriminalizing cannabis would have an immediate effect on reducing prison and jail populations, and save money. All current prisoners and inmates serving time solely for cannabis charges should be released and all past criminal records from cannabis convictions expunged.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania in 2022.

Image of Ronald Johnson

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Constitution Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "My name is Ron Johnson I’m a family man that has 6 daughters 4 sons. I’m running for senator because I’m tired of the political garbage that is going on in Washington. My philosophy is this. take care of our own first uphold the constitution and everything that it stands for and nothing less."


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.


I will fight for your rights and not allow them to be taken from you.


I’m going to fight for term limits


I’m not a politician I’m a down to earth American that cares about what happens to you

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania in 2022.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

Survey responses from candidates in this race

Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.

Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.

Expand all | Collapse all

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Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

I will fight for your rights and not allow them to be taken from you.

I’m going to fight for term limits

I’m not a politician I’m a down to earth American that cares about what happens to you
The latest UN report on climate change underscores the need to immediately make all efforts to stop emissions of greenhouse gases. This can be accomplished through a "just transition" to renewable energy that provides permanent jobs, and does not cause cancer like mining and burning fossil fuels. The technology exists today. All we need to do is implement it. And the first step is to halt fracking which is ruining the water and health of Pennsylvania.

The Covid-19 pandemic underlines the need for universal healthcare. Many who lose their job cannot afford the payments to maintain their health insurance. In the modern gig economy, many do not receive health insurance through their employer. They may face the choice of paying for rent or healthcare, but not have enough resources for both. The health insurance that is available has too many deductibles, copays and limitations on coverage. Employers who provide healthcare will benefit from Medicare for All by having their costs reduced. Employers who do not provide healthcare will benefit from Medicare for All by having healthier workers. Medicare for All costs less for better care. Everyone benefits from Medicare for All.

The US has a higher incarceration rate than any other developed country in the world. Conditions in prisons are human rights violations, with overcrowding and inadequate food and healthcare. Prisoners are preyed upon with unreasonable charges to buy their own food and communicate with their family. Many inmates of local jails are held without being convicted of any crime solely because they do not have enough money to pay cash bail. Decriminalizing cannabis would have an immediate effect on reducing prison and jail populations, and save money. All current prisoners and inmates serving time solely for cannabis charges should be released and all past criminal records from cannabis convictions expunged.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/RonaldJohnsonPA.jpeg

Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

Policies that are a top priority for me are keeping your rights as an American by that I will not stand by and watch them or let them take ANY part of the constitution or any of the amendments and do away with them.
This is a link to an interview with me on the KDKA morning radio show: https://24343.mc.tritondigital.com/OMNY_KDKAMORNINGNEWSWITHLARRYRICHERTANDJOHNSHUM_P/media-session/6abb8b6c-7934-4f0e-9274-583b6d5bb393/d/clips/4b5f9d6d-9214-48cb-8455-a73200038129/23d39bcc-80d0-4a91-abb0-a78e00b60011/11e84545-ba45-437e-bac5-aee800a2eec5/audio/direct/t1659693473/2022_Pennsylvania_Green_Party_Candidate_Richard_Weiss.mp3?t=1659693473

As U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, my first act would be to call for a vote on Medicare for All. I oppose fracking and support a rapid transition to renewable energy as well as reproductive rights and sensible gun regulation. The U.S. should negotiate peace, close the overseas military bases opened since 9/11, bring the troops home and spend that money at home.

Get money out of politics and publicly finance all campaigns. The Green Party accepts no donations from corporations, but instead relies on ordinary working people. Make a monthly donation for as little as $3 per month or as much as generosity inspires at gpofpa.org/join_us .

Ranked choice voting (RCV), also known as the instant runoff, eliminates any perceived or real spoiler effect. https://ballotpedia.org/Ranked-choice_voting_(RCV)

Make election day a public holiday. in order to reduce or elimate doubts, require hand marked ballots, counted by hand on camera. Register everyone to vote at birth, or at the polling place, with the option of giving a fingerprint if not photo ID. Fingerprint readers could confirm the person has not voted elsewhere.
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Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

I looked up to my Uncle Glen. Great man. And would tell you how it is and didn’t take any thing less. Political wise would be president Ronald Reagan. Best president in my life time.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/RonaldJohnsonPA.jpeg

Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

They must and none of them are but they must be honest fair and forthcoming. They need to stop with the mega donors that are influencing them.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/RonaldJohnsonPA.jpeg

Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

I don’t quit and when I go after something that I feel that it’s best then I don’t stop until I get it.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/RonaldJohnsonPA.jpeg

Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

To take care of the people that they represent and STOP all the crap that’s happening in DC
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/RonaldJohnsonPA.jpeg

Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

The one that stops Washington from taking your rights away
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/RonaldJohnsonPA.jpeg

Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

United States Army. 7yrs
I worked in my family's bakery business until I went to college.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/RonaldJohnsonPA.jpeg

Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

Very strong on term limits. That’s one reason I’m running.
There should be term limits.
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Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

The Senate is an independent body of so called responsible citizens who would share power with the president and the House of Representative but 9 times out of 10 that doesn’t happen.
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Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

No I don’t believe that that someone should have experience to be in politics.
Not if you want something different.
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Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

We should keep it.
Circumventing the filibuster with a rules manuver is the “nuclear option.” Any filibuster can be defeated with a simple majority vote or as little as 50 votes plus a tie breaking vote cast by the Vice President of the United States.

Those casting 50 votes plus tiebreaker cast by the Vice President can already pass anything they want anytime they want.

The filibuster is possible due to a Senate rule requiring 60 votes to end debate. The decision whether procedure was valid is by majority vote. Thus the majority party can take a vote and override any objection by majority vote (50+ VP tiebreaker). This is the “nuclear option.”

The filibuster is regularly circumvented and has been cirumvented over 100 times to pass legislation already. It would be just as simple to eliminate the filibuster entirely. However, the filibuster is not an obstacle to passing legislation.
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Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

No
I would want to start a new committed on climate which touches on all other committees because it is an existential issue.
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Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

His experience, how do other judges or lawyers think of him. Is he/she fair committed to his field.
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Ronald Johnson (Constitution)

A very strong relationship unless they don’t support the constitution
I would work with senators from all parties on common issues.


Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party John Fetterman

October 14, 2022
September 15, 2022
February 8, 2021

View more ads here:


Republican Party Mehmet Oz

September 5, 2022
August 5, 2022
November 30, 2021

View more ads here:


Debates and forums

October 25, 2022 debate

On October 25, 2022, Fetterman and Oz participated in a debate hosted by WHTM - ABC27 News.[28]

Click on the links below for summaries of the event:

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[67] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[68] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.


U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022: General election polls
Poll Date Democratic Party Fetterman Republican Party Oz Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size[69] Sponsor[70]
Research Co. November 4-6 49% 48% 7%[71] ± 4.6 450 LV -
InsiderAdvantage November 3 46% 48% 7%[72] ± 3.6 750 LV WTXF-TV (Philadelphia)
Trafalgar Group November 1-3 46% 48% 5%[73] ± 2.9 1,097 LV -
Remington Research Group November 1-2 44% 47% 9%[74] ± 2.8 1,180 LV -
Marist College October 31-November 2 50% 44% 6%[75] ± 3.8 1,152 LV -




The chart below shows RealClearPolitics polling averages in this race over time.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[115]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[116][117][118]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022
Race trackerRace ratings
November 8, 2022November 1, 2022October 25, 2022October 18, 2022
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Noteworthy endorsements

Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.


Noteworthy endorsements
Endorser Democratic Party John Fetterman Republican Party Mehmet Oz
Government officials
President Joe Biden (D)  source  
Vice President Kamala D. Harris (D)  source  
U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D)  source  
U.S. Senator Pat Toomey (R)  source  
Individuals
Frmr. Pres. Barack Obama  source  
Former candidate Everett Stern  source  
Frmr. U.S. President Donald Trump  source  
Newspapers and editorials
PennLive  source  
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette  source  
The Philadelphia Inquirer  source  
The Philadelphia Tribune Editorial Board  source  



Election spending

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[119] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[120] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.

U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022
Report Close of books Filing deadline
Year-end 2021 12/31/2021 1/31/2022
April quarterly 3/31/2022 4/15/2022
July quarterly 6/30/2022 7/15/2022
October quarterly 9/30/2022 10/15/2022
Pre-general 10/19/2022 10/27/2022
Post-general 11/28/2022 12/08/2022
Year-end 2022 12/31/2022 1/31/2023


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
John Fetterman Democratic Party $76,336,561 $75,709,211 $626,015 As of December 31, 2022
Mehmet Oz Republican Party $51,080,109 $49,392,955 $1,687,154 As of December 31, 2022
Ronald Johnson Constitution Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Richard Weiss Green Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Daniel Wassmer Keystone Party of Pennsylvania $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Erik Chase Gerhardt Libertarian Party $35,197 $5,555 $29,737 As of December 31, 2022
Quincy Magee Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[121][122]

If available, satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. FEC links include totals from monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual reports. OpenSecrets.org compiles data from those reports as well as 24- and 48-hour reports from the FEC.[123]

Details about satellite spending of significant amounts and/or reported by media are included below those links. The amounts listed may not represent the total satellite spending in the election. To notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.

By candidate By election
  • October 12, 2022: NBC News reported that American Crossroads PAC was spending $4.1 million on ads supporting Oz.[37]
  • October 11, 2022: CNN reported that Senate Majority PAC planned to spend $33 million in the race. The PAC spent a portion of that on ads opposing Oz.[38]
  • October 6, 2022: Bloomberg reported that Make America Great Again Inc., a political action committee led by former President Donald Trump (R), would spend $770,000 on ads supporting Oz.[39]
  • October 4, 2022: The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that Everytown for Gun Safety planned to spend $2.1 million on ads opposing Oz.[42]
  • September 1, 2022: American Leadership Action spent $500,000 on ads opposing Fetterman.[124]
  • August 9, 2022:
    • The Senate Leadership Fund spent $9.5 million in support of Oz, bringing its total spending in the state to $34 million.[125]
    • The Democratic Senate Majority PAC launched a $32 million ad campaign in support of Fetterman.[125]

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
  • Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
  • State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

Presidential elections

See also: Presidential voting trends in Pennsylvania and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Pennsylvania, 2022
District Incumbent Party PVI
Pennsylvania's 1st Brian Fitzpatrick Ends.png Republican Even
Pennsylvania's 2nd Brendan Boyle Electiondot.png Democratic D+20
Pennsylvania's 3rd Dwight Evans Electiondot.png Democratic D+39
Pennsylvania's 4th Madeleine Dean Electiondot.png Democratic D+7
Pennsylvania's 5th Mary Gay Scanlon Electiondot.png Democratic D+14
Pennsylvania's 6th Chrissy Houlahan Electiondot.png Democratic D+5
Pennsylvania's 7th Susan Wild Electiondot.png Democratic R+2
Pennsylvania's 8th Matt Cartwright Electiondot.png Democratic R+4
Pennsylvania's 9th Dan Meuser Ends.png Republican R+21
Pennsylvania's 10th Scott Perry Ends.png Republican R+5
Pennsylvania's 11th Lloyd Smucker Ends.png Republican R+13
Pennsylvania's 12th Open Electiondot.png Democratic D+8
Pennsylvania's 13th John Joyce Ends.png Republican R+25
Pennsylvania's 14th Guy Reschenthaler Ends.png Republican R+18
Pennsylvania's 15th Glenn Thompson Ends.png Republican R+21
Pennsylvania's 16th Mike Kelly Ends.png Republican R+13
Pennsylvania's 17th Open Electiondot.png Democratic Even


2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Pennsylvania[126]
District Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
Pennsylvania's 1st 51.8% 47.2%
Pennsylvania's 2nd 71.0% 28.3%
Pennsylvania's 3rd 90.2% 9.3%
Pennsylvania's 4th 58.9% 40.0%
Pennsylvania's 5th 65.7% 33.4%
Pennsylvania's 6th 56.8% 42.0%
Pennsylvania's 7th 49.7% 49.1%
Pennsylvania's 8th 48.0% 50.9%
Pennsylvania's 9th 31.0% 67.5%
Pennsylvania's 10th 47.2% 51.3%
Pennsylvania's 11th 38.6% 59.9%
Pennsylvania's 12th 59.4% 39.5%
Pennsylvania's 13th 26.8% 72.0%
Pennsylvania's 14th 33.7% 65.2%
Pennsylvania's 15th 30.8% 67.8%
Pennsylvania's 16th 39.0% 59.7%
Pennsylvania's 17th 52.3% 46.5%


2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:


Following the 2020 presidential election, 47.2% of Pennsylvanians lived in one of the state's 10 Solid Democratic counties, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 41.7% lived in one of 53 Solid Republican counties. Overall, Pennsylvania was Battleground Democratic, having voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Pennsylvania following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

Historical voting trends

Pennsylvania presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 14 Democratic wins
  • 16 Republican wins
  • 1 other win
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party R R R P[127] R R R R R D D D R R R D D D R D R R R D D D D D D R D

Statewide elections

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from Pennsylvania

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania.

U.S. Senate election results in Pennsylvania
Race Winner Runner up
2018 55.7%Democratic Party 42.6%Republican Party
2016 48.9%Republican Party 47.2%Democratic Party
2012 53.7%Democratic Party 44.6%Republican Party
2010 51.0%Republican Party 49.0%Democratic Party
2006 58.7%Democratic Party 41.3%Republican Party
Average 53.6 44.9

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of Pennsylvania

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania.

Gubernatorial election results in Pennsylvania
Race Winner Runner up
2018 57.8%Democratic Party 40.7%Republican Party
2014 54.9%Democratic Party 45.1%Republican Party
2010 54.5%Republican Party 45.5%Democratic Party
2006 60.3%Democratic Party 39.6%Republican Party
2002 53.4%Democratic Party 44.4%Republican Party
Average 56.2 43.1

State partisanship

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Pennsylvania's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Pennsylvania, November 2022
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 1 9 10
Republican 1 9 10
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 18 20

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Pennsylvania's top four state executive offices as of November 2022.

State executive officials in Pennsylvania, November 2022
Office Officeholder
Governor Democratic Party Tom Wolf
Lieutenant Governor Democratic Party John Fetterman
Secretary of State Democratic Party Leigh Chapman
Attorney General Democratic Party Josh Shapiro

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Pennsylvania General Assembly as of November 2022.

Pennsylvania State Senate

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 21
     Republican Party 28
     Independent 1
     Vacancies 0
Total 50

Pennsylvania House of Representatives

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 88
     Republican Party 113
     Vacancies 2
Total 203

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Pennsylvania was a divided government, with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republican majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2022
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D
Senate R D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R

Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Pennsylvania and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

Demographic Data for Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania United States
Population 12,702,379 308,745,538
Land area (sq mi) 44,742 3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White 80.5% 72.5%
Black/African American 11.2% 12.7%
Asian 3.4% 5.5%
Native American 0.2% 0.8%
Pacific Islander 0% 0.2%
Other (single race) 2.2% 4.9%
Multiple 2.5% 3.3%
Hispanic/Latino 7.3% 18%
Education
High school graduation rate 90.5% 88%
College graduation rate 31.4% 32.1%
Income
Median household income $61,744 $62,843
Persons below poverty level 12.4% 13.4%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


Election context

Ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Pennsylvania in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Pennsylvania, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2022
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Ballot-qualified party 2,000 $200.00 3/15/2022 Source
Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Unaffiliated 2% of the largest entire vote cast for any elected statewide candidate in the last election $200.00 8/1/2022 Source

Election history

2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania

Incumbent Bob Casey Jr. defeated Lou Barletta, Dale Kerns, and Neal Gale in the general election for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Bob Casey Jr.
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
 
55.7
 
2,792,437
Image of Lou Barletta
Lou Barletta (R) Candidate Connection
 
42.6
 
2,134,848
Image of Dale Kerns
Dale Kerns (L) Candidate Connection
 
1.0
 
50,907
Image of Neal Gale
Neal Gale (G) Candidate Connection
 
0.6
 
31,208

Total votes: 5,009,400
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania

Incumbent Bob Casey Jr. advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Bob Casey Jr.
Bob Casey Jr.
 
100.0
 
752,008

Total votes: 752,008
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania

Lou Barletta defeated Jim Christiana in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Lou Barletta
Lou Barletta Candidate Connection
 
63.0
 
433,312
Image of Jim Christiana
Jim Christiana
 
37.0
 
254,118

Total votes: 687,430
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016

The race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat was one of nine competitive battleground races in 2016 that helped Republicans keep control of the upper chamber after the November 8 general election. Incumbent Pat Toomey (R), who began serving in the Senate in 2011, defeated Katie McGinty (D), Edward Clifford III (L), and write-in candidate Everett Stern (I) in the general election.

Toomey ran his campaign separately from Donald Trump, and he did not tell people who he would vote for on Election Day. Toomey said, “You know, I’m not campaigning with Donald Trump. He’s running his campaign. I’m running mine.”[128][129][130]

Hillary Clinton, who campaigned with McGinty in October, criticized Toomey for not rejecting Trump as his party’s nominee. She said, “How much does he have to hear or to see? If he doesn’t have the courage to stand up against Donald Trump after all of this, then how will he stand up to special interests and powerful forces that are going to be trying to have their way in Washington?”[130]

Speaking about his campaign strategy, Toomey said, “I am convinced that Pennsylvania voters are going to make a complete separation in their minds. … There’s a presidential race going on, quite obviously, lots of attention, lots of focus, everybody’s got their opinion about it, and then there’s a totally separate thing happening in the Senate race — an incumbent senator most people know and an opponent. Totally separate campaign and totally separate judgment.”[130] Toomey stated on Election Day that he voted for Trump.[131]


U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPat Toomey Incumbent 48.8% 2,951,702
     Democratic Katie McGinty 47.3% 2,865,012
     Libertarian Edward Clifford 3.9% 235,142
Total Votes 6,051,856
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State


U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngKatie McGinty 42.5% 669,774
Joe Sestak 32.6% 513,221
John Fetterman 19.5% 307,090
Joseph Vodvarka 5.4% 85,837
Total Votes 1,575,922
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

2012

See also: United States Senate elections in Pennsylvania, 2012

Bob Casey Jr. won re-election to the United States Senate in 2012.

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBob Casey Jr. Incumbent 53.7% 3,021,364
     Republican Tom Smith 44.6% 2,509,132
     Libertarian Rayburn Douglas Smith 1.7% 96,926
Total Votes 5,627,422
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State
U.S. Senate-Pennsylvania Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTom Smith 39.5% 299,726
Sam Rohrer 22.3% 169,118
John Marc Scaringi 6.8% 51,908
David Christian 10.5% 79,581
Steve Welch 20.9% 158,181
Total Votes 758,514

Republican-held Senate seat in state Biden won

See also: States won by Joe Biden in 2020 with Republican-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2022

This was one of two Senate seats Republicans were defending in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election:

Democrats were not defending any Senate seats in states Trump won in 2020.

The following table shows the 2020 presidential election margin of victory in percentage points for each state with a Senate election in 2022. Click [show] on the right to expand the table.


2022 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:

See also

Pennsylvania 2022 primaries 2022 U.S. Congress elections
Seal of Pennsylvania.png
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
CongressLogosmall.png
Pennsylvania congressional delegation
Voting in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania elections:
20222021202020192018
Democratic primary battlegrounds
Republican primary battlegrounds
U.S. Senate Democratic primaries
U.S. Senate Republican primaries
U.S. House Democratic primaries
U.S. House Republican primaries
U.S. Congress elections
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
Special elections
Ballot access

External links

Footnotes

  1. YouTube, "Blame Washington," August 17, 2022
  2. LinkedIn, "Mehmet Oz," accessed August 3, 2022
  3. YouTube, "Doctors Fix Things," August 24, 2022
  4. CBS News, "Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman to return to in-person campaigning after stroke in May," August 5, 2022
  5. Roll Call, "Oz seeks to rally GOP against very online Fetterman campaign," August 22, 2022
  6. The Philadelphia Inquirer, "A tale of two campaigns: Fetterman rallies with his base while Oz tries to win over voters in smaller circles.," October 12, 2022
  7. The special Senate election in California was for the same seat up for regular election. There were, then, 36 total Senate elections for 35 total seats.
  8. Two independents who caucus with Democrats are included with Democrats in the 50-50 split count.
  9. Research Co., "Florida and Ohio Are Red States in U.S. Midterm Election," November 7, 2022
  10. Marist College, "The 2022 Elections in Pennsylvania," November 4, 2022
  11. Fox 29 Philadelphia, "InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll: Oz rallies ahead of Fetterman as Shapiro maintains lead over Mastriano," November 4, 2022
  12. Emerson College, "Pennsylvania 2022: Oz and Fetterman in Two-Point Race; Half of Voters Say Senate Debate Worsened Their Opinion of Fetterman," November 3, 2022
  13. Trafalgar Group, "Pennsylvania General Statewide Survey," November 3, 2022
  14. Fox News, "Fox News Poll: Half of Pennsylvanians say Senate debate a factor in their vote," November 2, 2022
  15. Suffolk University, "Pennsylvania Midterms with USA TODAY Network marginals," November 2, 2022
  16. Susquehanna Polling and Research, "Pennsylvania Statewide [US SENATE Poll Highlights," November 2, 2022]
  17. Remington Research Group, "Pennsylvania," November 2, 2022
  18. Twitter, "John Fetterman on November 1, 2022," accessed November 2, 2022
  19. The Morning Call, "Pennsylvania poll: Fetterman, Oz in a dead heat, while Shapiro maintains lead on Mastriano," November 1, 2022
  20. The New York Times, "Topline Results from Oct. 2022 Times/Siena Polls in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania," October 31, 2022
  21. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Editorial: Better bet: Despite turbulent Senate race, Oz better prepared to lead," October 30, 2022
  22. Twitter, "John Fetterman on November 6, 2022," accessed November 7, 2022
  23. Wick Insights, "PA BATTLEGROUND SURVEY, OCT 2022," October 28, 2022
  24. co/efficient, "Pennsylvania Statewide 2022 General Election," October 28, 2022
  25. White House, "Remarks by Vice President Harris At a Pennsylvania Democratic Party Reception," October 28, 2022
  26. InsiderAdvantage, "Oz ahead of Fetterman, Shapiro leads Mastriano in new PA poll," October 27, 2022
  27. Franklin & Marshall, "Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: October 2022," October 27, 2022
  28. 28.0 28.1 YouTube, "Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Debate," October 25, 2022
  29. Twitter, "Everett Stern on OCtober 25, 2022," accessed October 26, 2022
  30. CBS News, "CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Pennsylvania Senate contest narrows," October 25, 2022
  31. Rasmussen Reports, "Democrats Lead in Pennsylvania Governor, Senate Races," October 24, 2022
  32. Twitter, "John Fetterman on OCtober 21, 2022," accessed October 25, 2022
  33. Fox 29 Philadelphia, "InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll: Fetterman, Oz neck and neck as Shapiro’s lead over Mastriano narrows," October 20, 2022
  34. Wick Insights, "PA BATTLEGROUND SURVEY, OCT 2022," October 19, 2022
  35. The Philadelphia Inquirer, "John Fetterman is the best choice to represent Pennsylvania’s priorities in the U.S. Senate | Endorsement," October 16, 2022
  36. Trafalgar Group, "Pennsylvania General Statewide Survey," October 13, 2022
  37. 37.0 37.1 NBC News, "GOP super PAC ups investment in Pennsylvania Senate race," October 12, 2022
  38. 38.0 38.1 CNN, "Top Democratic super PAC to air ads on animal cruelty accusations against Oz," October 11, 2022
  39. 39.0 39.1 Bloomberg, "Trump’s New Super PAC Enters Pennsylvania and Ohio Senate Races," October 6, 2022
  40. GoErie, "Fetterman's lead on Oz slips as Shapiro's widens over Mastriano in USA TODAY/Suffolk poll," October 4, 2022
  41. The Cook Political Report, "Pennsylvania Senate Moves Back to Toss Up," October 4, 2022
  42. 42.0 42.1 The Philadelphia Inquirer, "Gun-safety group launches $2.1 million ad campaign criticizing Oz, Mastriano over gun laws," October 4, 2022
  43. Franklin & Marshall, "Key Findings," September 29, 2022
  44. Emerson College, "Pennsylvania 2022: Fetterman’s Lead Shrinks in US Senate Race; Shapiro’s Lead Expands For Governor’s Seat," September 29, 2022
  45. Fox News, "Fox News Poll: Pennsylvania Senate race narrows," September 28, 2022
  46. Marist, "The 2022 Elections in Pennsylvania," September 27, 2022
  47. The Phillips Academy Poll, "Pennsylvania Democrats Fetterman and Shapiro hang on to slim lead; Oz down 2%," September 26, 2022
  48. Fox 29, "InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll shows Fetterman leading Oz, Shapiro in double-digit lead over Mastriano," September 26, 2022
  49. Muhlenberg College, "Muhlenberg College/Morning Call 2022 Pennsylvania Midterm Election Survey - September Wave," accessed September 23, 2022
  50. The Trafalgar Group, "Pennsylvania General Statewide Survey," September 16, 2022
  51. CBS News, "Economy, abortion shape Pennsylvania midterm races — CBS News Battleground Tracker," September 14, 2022
  52. NetChoice, "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech," September 13, 2022
  53. RABA Research, "Pennsylvania Survey," September 7, 2022
  54. NBC, "Oz backers launch ads attacking Fetterman for pulling gun on Black jogger in 2013," September 6, 2022
  55. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "Crystal Ball 2022 Senate ratings," August 31, 2022
  56. Susquehanna Polling and Research, "Pennsylvania US Senate Race: Fetterman Holds Tenuous Lead," August 30, 2022
  57. Twitter, "Jessica Taylor on August 18, 2022," accessed August 18, 2022
  58. Franklin & Marshall College, "Franklin & Marshall Poll Release: August 2022," August 25, 2022
  59. Emerson College, "Pennsylvania 2022: Fetterman Holds Four-Point Lead Over Oz for US Senate; Shapiro Leads Mastriano by Three," August 25, 2022
  60. Trafalgar Group, "Pennsylvania General Statewide Survey - August 2022," accessed August 22, 2022
  61. Twitter, "Jessica Taylor on August 18, 2022," accessed August 18, 2022
  62. Pittsburgh Works, "Shapiro, Fetterman Hold Double Digit Leads in New Poll," August 17, 2022
  63. Fox News, "Fox News Poll: Oz supporters lack enthusiasm in Pennsylvania Senate race," July 28, 2022
  64. Bolton Super PAC, "New Poll Finds Trump Hurts Republican Chances in Key Senate Races," July 28, 2022
  65. The Dispatch, "Toomey Will Support Dr. Oz But Stays Mum on Mastriano," July 27, 2022
  66. Blueprint Polling, "Democratic Nominees for PA Governor and Senate Enjoy Early Lead While Biden Fades," July 28, 2022
  67. For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
  68. Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
  69. RV=Registered Voters
    LV=Likely Voters
  70. The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
  71. Some other candidate: 2%
    Undecided/Would not vote: 5%
  72. Gerhardt: 2%
    Someone else: 2%
    Undecided/No Opinion: 3%
  73. Other: 2%
    Undecided: 3%
  74. Weiss: 1%
    Gerhardt: 2%
    Someone else: 1%
    Undecided: 5%
  75. Another party's candidate: 1%
    Undecided: 5%
  76. RV=Registered Voters
    LV=Likely Voters
  77. The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
  78. Other: 1%
    Not sure/Undecided: 5%
  79. Gerhardt: 2%
    Weiss: 1%
    Undecided: 4%
  80. Gerhardt: 1%
    Undecided: 7%
  81. Stern: 4%
    Other/Undecided/Not Vote: 8%
  82. Someone else: 5%
    Undecided: 2%
  83. Neither/Other: 3%
    Not sure: 2%
  84. Someone else: 4%
    Undecided: 3%
  85. Gerhardt: 3%
    Someone else/Undecided/No Opinion: 4%
  86. Don't know/refused: 6%
  87. Gerhardt: 1%
    Some other candidate: 2%
    Aren't sure how you would vote: 11%
    None, not going to vote: 1%
  88. Other: 6%
    Undecided: 6%
  89. Gerhardt: 2%
    Someone else: 1%
    Undecided/No Opinion: 5%
  90. Someone else: 3%
    Undecided: 3%
  91. Gerhardt: 3%
    Other: 1%
    Undecided: 4%
  92. Undecided: 10%
  93. Someone else: 5%
    Undecided: 8%
  94. Stern: 3%
    Other: 1%
    Wouldn't vote: 3%
    Don't know: 7%
  95. Some other candidate: 8%
    Do not know: 5%
  96. Gerhardt: 2%
    Someone else: 4%
    Undecided/No Opinion: 8%
  97. Undecided: 7%
  98. Unsure: 9%
  99. Neither/Other: 5%
    Not sure: 2%
  100. Gerhardt: 4%
    Other: 1%
    Undecided: 2%
  101. Not sure: 1%
  102. Unsure: 7%
  103. I plan to vote for someone else: 3%
    Not sure: 8%
  104. Other: 2%
    Not sure: 5%
  105. Someone else: 3%
    Undecided: 5%
  106. Erik Gerhardt: 3%
    Dan Wassmer: 1%
    Richard Weiss: 1%
    Some other candidate: 2%
    Aren't sure: 20%
    None: 1%
  107. Erik Gerhardt: 2%
    Other: 2%
    Undecided: 5%
  108. Undecided: 15%
  109. Stern: 3%
    Other/undecided: 13%
  110. Another candidate: 4%
    Undecided: 15%
  111. Someone else: 2%
    Not sure: 9%
  112. Unsure: 8%
  113. Undecided: 6%
  114. Gerhardt: 1%
    Weiss: 1%
    Magee: 1%
    Stern: 1%
    Johnson: 0%
    Undecided: 13%
  115. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  116. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  117. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  118. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  119. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  120. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  121. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
  122. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
  123. Amee LaTour, Email correspondence with the Center for Responsive Politics, August 5, 2022
  124. NBC, "Oz backers launch ads attacking Fetterman for pulling gun on Black jogger in 2013," September 6, 2022
  125. 125.0 125.1 The Philadelphia Inquirer, "Two super PACs are pouring tens of millions into Pennsylvania for Oz and Fetterman ads," August 9, 2022
  126. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022
  127. Progressive Party
  128. Real Clear Politics, "Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein," accessed October 24, 2016
  129. Real Clear Politics, "Pennsylvania Senate - Toomey vs. McGinty," accessed October 24, 2016
  130. 130.0 130.1 130.2 The Los Angeles Times, "A Republican Senator's strategy to save his seat in one of the country's tightest races: Avoid Trump," accessed October 24, 2016
  131. The New York Times, "Patrick Toomey Wins Re-election in Pennsylvania Senate Race," accessed November 11, 2016
  132. Padilla was appointed to the seat in January 2021 to succeed Kamala Harris (D).


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