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United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)

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2024
2018
U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 15, 2022
Primary: May 17, 2022
General: November 8, 2022

Pre-election incumbent:
Pat Toomey (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Pennsylvania
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
See also
U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania
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Pennsylvania elections, 2022
U.S. Congress elections, 2022
U.S. Senate elections, 2022
U.S. House elections, 2022

Mehmet Oz defeated six other candidates in the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania on May 17, 2022. Following a recount, Oz beat David McCormick by 951 votes. Oz received 31.2% of the vote, McCormick received 31.1%, and Kathy Barnette received 24.7%. Sen. Pat Toomey (R) did not run for re-election.

Pennsylvania law required Pennsylvania Secretary of State Leigh Chapman to order a recount because the initial vote margin was within 0.5% of the total vote.[1] The recount began on May 27 and ended on June 8.[2] To learn more about the recount, click here.

Oz is an author and former surgeon. He hosted The Dr. Oz Show from 2009 to January 2022 and appeared as a regular guest on The Oprah Winfrey Show. Oz received his bachelor's degree from Harvard University, and his medical and business degrees from the University of Pennsylvania.[3] Oz's campaign portrayed him as a political outsider, with a campaign ad likening him to former Presidents Ronald Reagan and Trump, saying they each started in Hollywood before going to Washington to fight the establishment.[4] Oz used his background in medicine to highlight disagreements with how the Biden administration handled the COVID-19 pandemic.[5]

McCormick was the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, an investment management firm, from 2017 to January 2022. Before joining Bridgewater in 2009, he served as Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security and as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs in the George W. Bush (R) administration. McCormick graduated from West Point and served in the United States Army during the Gulf War.[6] McCormick's campaign focused on economic issues and the relationship between the United States and China.[7]

Barnette worked as a political commentator and in corporate finance after serving in the United States Army Reserve.[8] Barnette identified herself as an America First candidate, a term often associated with the platform of Trump and candidates who say they support Trump's agenda. Barnette also campaigned on limiting her service in the U.S. Senate to two terms and a pledge that neither she nor her husband would own or trade individual stocks.[9]

On April 9, 2022, former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Oz.[10] On May 12, Trump issued a statement opposing Barnette. "Barnette will never be able to win the General Election against the Radical Left Democrats. She has many things in her past which have not been properly explained or vetted," he said.[11] In response to Trump's statement, Barnette said, "It sounds like the president knows what’s going to happen on next Tuesday . . . We now have the opportunity where the people are making their voices heard on what kind of leadership they want — and they don’t want to be spoon-fed two globalists, as many influencers within the Republican Party are trying to sell us, they want a real conservative."[12]

At the time of the primary election, three independent race forecasters rated the general election either Toss-up or Tilt Republican. President Joe Biden (D) won the state by 1.2 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) won re-election by 13 percentage points in 2018. Toomey won re-election in 2016 by 1.5 percentage points.

Also running in the primary were Jeff Bartos, George Bochetto, Sean Gale, and Carla Sands.

Ronald Johnson (R) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Click on a candidate's name to view that candidate's responses.

This page focuses on Pennsylvania's United States Senate Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the state's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

HOTP-GOP-Ad-1-Small.png

Election recount

Pennsylvania law required a recount because the initial vote margin was within 0.5% of the total vote. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Leigh Chapman ordered a recount on May 25 that lasted from May 27 to June 8.[2] Before the recount, Oz led McCormick by 902 votes.[1] Based on final results, Oz beat McCormick by 951 votes.[13]

McCormick's campaign sued to have ballots counted that were mailed and received on or before election day but did not have a written date on the envelope. The lawsuit cited a ruling by the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit in a case relating to a 2021 judicial election that required such ballots to be counted.[1] On May 31, the Supreme Court of the United States issued an administrative stay of the Third Circuit's ruling pending further action, meaning such ballots would not have to be counted.[14]

Recount timeline

Click below to view a timeline of the recount, including lawsuits, rulings, and vote totals.

Recount laws in Pennsylvania

See also: Recount laws in Pennsylvania

The list below shows answers to common questions regarding recounts in Pennsylvania.[18]

  • Does state law require automatic recounts?
    • Yes, when the margin for a statewide office or ballot measure is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote. An automatic recount may be required in the event of certain discrepancies described below.
  • When must an automatic recount be completed?
    • No later than the first Tuesday after the third Wednesday following the election.
  • Can a recount be requested?
    • Yes, the recount can be requested within five days of the election or within five days after the computational canvass if requested through the court of common pleas. No margin is required and there is no set deadline for completion.
  • Who pays for a requested recount?
    • The requester.
  • Is a refund available for requested recount costs?
    • Yes. Costs paid by the requester are refunded if the recount reveals substantial error or fraud.
  • Can a partial recount be requested?
    • Yes.


Election news

Click below to view a timeline leading up to the election, including polling, debates, and other noteworthy events.

Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania on May 17, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mehmet Oz
Mehmet Oz
 
31.2
 
420,168
Image of David McCormick
David McCormick
 
31.1
 
419,218
Image of Kathy Barnette
Kathy Barnette
 
24.7
 
331,903
Image of Carla Sands
Carla Sands
 
5.4
 
73,360
Image of Jeff Bartos
Jeff Bartos
 
5.0
 
66,684
Image of Sean Gale
Sean Gale
 
1.5
 
20,266
Image of George Bochetto
George Bochetto
 
1.1
 
14,492

Total votes: 1,346,091
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Image of Kathy Barnette

WebsiteFacebookXYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Barnette received a bachelor's degree from Troy State University and a master's degree from Fontbonne University. Her professional experience includes working as a political commentator and adjunct professor of corporate finance. She served in the United States Army Reserves for 10 years.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


At debates and on social media, Barnette said that she was an America First candidate, which includes a range of political positions held by former President Donald Trump (R).


Barnette said she believed life begins at conception and that abortions should be performed only in the case of danger to the mother's life.


Barnette's campaign website included a 10-point "Day One Pledge," which included opposition to censorship, addressing election integrity issues, not investing in stocks while in office, and committing to only serving two terms in office.


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania in 2022.

Image of David McCormick

WebsiteFacebookXYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  McCormick received his bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point and his Ph.D. in international affairs from Princeton University. His professional experience includes working as the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, an investment management firm, and under secretary in both the Department of Commerce and Department of the Treasury. He served in the Army's 82nd Airborne Division during the Gulf War.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


McCormick highlighted his experience in finance and said he supported economic policies that supported small businesses, lowered taxes, and returned manufacturing jobs to the United States.


McCormick said he would be tough on China by moving supply chains and manufacturing jobs back to the United States, enforcing intellectual property laws, reimplementing Trump's trade policies, and seeking reparations for COVID-19.


In a campaign ad, McCormick called President Joe Biden weak on foreign policy and said Biden was to blame for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania in 2022.

Image of Mehmet Oz

WebsiteFacebookXYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Oz received his bachelor's degree from Harvard University and a joint M.D. and M.B.A. from the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine and Wharton Business School. His professional experience includes working as an attending physician at NY Presbyterian-Columbia Medical Center, host of The Dr. Oz Show, health expert on The Oprah Winfrey Show, and author.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


In a campaign ad, Oz likened himself to former Presidents Ronald Regan and Donald Trump, who he said, "like me, they were conservative outsiders who fought the establishment."


Oz highlighted his background as a surgeon and medical expert on television to say he opposed COVID-19 measures like business closures, remote education, and mask mandates.


Oz criticized the Biden administration's economic policies and said they had led to inflation and supply chain disruptions. Oz said he would "fully confront China and support energy independence."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania in 2022.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Republican Party Kathy Barnette

May 14, 2021
March 22, 2022
March 15, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Jeff Bartos

March 8, 2021

View more ads here:


Republican Party George Bochetto

April 1, 2022
March 17, 2022
January 10, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Sean Gale

March 8, 2021

View more ads here:


Republican Party David McCormick

May 15, 2022
May 9, 2022
May 5, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Mehmet Oz

May 13, 2022
May 10, 2022
April 29, 2022

View more ads here:


Republican Party Carla Sands

May 9, 2022
April 20, 2022
February 11, 2022

View more ads here:


Satellite ads

This section includes a selection of campaign advertisements released by satellite groups. If you are aware of other satellite ads that should be included, please email us.

American Leadership Action

On May 11, 2022, American Leadership Action published an ad opposing Barnette.[38] That ad is embedded below.

May 11, 2022
Honor Pennsylvania

As of April 9, 2022, Honor Pennsylvania had spent $9.8 million on ads.[39] A selection of those ads are included below:

April 27, 2022
USA Freedom Fund

On May 5, 2022, Axios reported that the USA Freedom Fund, a super PAC affiliated with Ohio U.S. Senate candidate Josh Mandel (R), ran digital ads in opposition of Oz.[41]

Debates and forums

This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, please email us.

May 4 debate

On May 4, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, McCormick, Oz, and Sands participated in a debate at Grove City College hosted by Newsmax.[42]

Click on the links below for a summary of the event:

April 26 debate

On April 26, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, Bochetto, Gale, and Sands participated in a debate at Dickinson College in Carlisle.[43]

Click on the links below for a summary of the event:

April 25 debate

On April 25, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, McCormick, Oz, and Sands participated in a debate in Harrisburg.[44]

Click on the links below for a summary of the event:

April 2 forum

On April 2, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, Bochetto, Gale, Oz, and Sands participated in a forum at the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference.[34]

Click on the link below for a summary of the event:

March 30 forum

On March 30, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, McCormick, and Oz participated in a forum at the Manufacturer & Business Association offices in Erie.[35]

Click on the link below for a summary of the event:

March 29 forum

On March 29, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, Bochetto, and Gale participated in a forum sponsored by the Delaware Valley Journal.[36]

Click on the link below for a summary of the event:

February 21 debate

On Feb. 21, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, Bochetto, and Stern participated in a debate at Villanova University hosted by the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry.[37]

Click on the link below for a summary of the event:

News and conflicts in this primary

This race was featured in The Heart of the Primaries, a newsletter capturing stories related to conflicts within each major party. Click here to read more about conflict in this and other 2022 Republican Senate primaries. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter.

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

Republican primary endorsements
Endorser Republican Party Kathy Barnette Republican Party Jeff Bartos Republican Party David McCormick Republican Party Mehmet Oz Republican Party Sean Parnell
Government officials
U.S. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R)  source        
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R)  source        
U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst (R)  source        
U.S. Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Fred Keller (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Burgess Owens (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R)  source        
U.S. Rep. Glenn Thompson (R)  source        
State Sen. Doug Mastriano (R)  source        
Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R)  source        
Individuals
Frmr. U.S. HUD Secretary Ben Carson  source        
Frmr. White House counselor Kellyanne Conway  source        
Gen. Michael Flynn  source        
Radio host Sean Hannity  source        
Frmr. White House Communications Director Hope Hicks  source        
Frmr. Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow  source        
Frmr. White House senior policy advisor Stephen Miller  source        
Frmr. candidate Sean Parnell  source        
Frmr. U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry  source        
Frmr. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo  source        
Frmr. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross  source        
Frmr. U.S. Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders  source        
Frmr. U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum  source        
Republican National Committee member Christine Toretti  source        
Frmr. U.S. President Donald Trump  source 1 source 2      
Frmr. U.S. Interior Secretary Ryan K. Zinke  source        
Organizations
BlakPAC  source        
Club for Growth  source        
National Border Patrol Council  source        
Republican National Hispanic Assembly  source        
Susan B. Anthony List  source        


Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[45] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[46] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.


U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022: Republican primary election polls
Poll Date Republican Party Barnette Republican Party Bartos Republican Party Bochetto Republican Party Gale Republican Party McCormick Republican Party Oz Republican Party Sands Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size[47] Sponsor[48]
Trafalgar Group May 14-16, 2022 27% 7% 2% 2% 22% 29% 7% 6% ± 2.9 1,195 LV N/A
Emerson College May 14-15, 2022 27% 6% 1% 26% 32% 7% 15% ± 3.0 1,000 RV N/A
Susquehanna May 12-15, 2022 27% 2% 1% 1% 11% 28% 3% 25%[49] ± 3.0 400 RV N/A
FOX29/InsiderAdvantage May 7-9, 2022 21% 5% 1% 1% 19% 23% 5% 26% ± 3.6 750 LV N/A
Fox News May 7-8, 2022 19% 7% 1% 1% 20% 22% 8% 18% ± 3.0 1,001 RV N/A


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[57]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[58][59][60]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022
Race trackerRace ratings
November 8, 2022November 1, 2022October 25, 2022October 18, 2022
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Election spending

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[61] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[62] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.

U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022
Report Close of books Filing deadline
Year-end 2021 12/31/2021 1/31/2022
April quarterly 3/31/2022 4/15/2022
July quarterly 6/30/2022 7/15/2022
October quarterly 9/30/2022 10/15/2022
Pre-general 10/19/2022 10/27/2022
Post-general 11/28/2022 12/08/2022
Year-end 2022 12/31/2022 1/31/2023


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kathy Barnette Republican Party $2,620,371 $2,501,413 $234,707 As of December 31, 2022
Jeff Bartos Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
George Bochetto Republican Party $929,913 $929,913 $0 As of December 31, 2022
Sean Gale Republican Party $55,099 $55,099 $0 As of October 12, 2022
David McCormick Republican Party $20,310,512 $20,302,691 $7,821 As of December 31, 2022
Mehmet Oz Republican Party $51,080,109 $49,392,955 $1,687,154 As of December 31, 2022
Carla Sands Republican Party $8,856,511 $8,856,511 $0 As of August 30, 2022

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[63][64][65]

If available, links to satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. Any satellite spending reported in other resources is displayed in a table. This table may not represent the actual total amount spent by satellite groups in the election. Satellite spending for which specific amounts, dates, or purposes are not reported are marked "N/A." To help us complete this information, or to notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.

By candidate By election
Satellite spending in U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022
Organization Amount Date Purpose
Club for Growth$2,000,000May 11, 2022Ads supporting Barnette[66][67]

Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
  • Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
  • State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.

Presidential elections

See also: Presidential voting trends in Pennsylvania and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Pennsylvania, 2022
District Incumbent Party PVI
Pennsylvania's 1st Brian Fitzpatrick Ends.png Republican Even
Pennsylvania's 2nd Brendan Boyle Electiondot.png Democratic D+20
Pennsylvania's 3rd Dwight Evans Electiondot.png Democratic D+39
Pennsylvania's 4th Madeleine Dean Electiondot.png Democratic D+7
Pennsylvania's 5th Mary Gay Scanlon Electiondot.png Democratic D+14
Pennsylvania's 6th Chrissy Houlahan Electiondot.png Democratic D+5
Pennsylvania's 7th Susan Wild Electiondot.png Democratic R+2
Pennsylvania's 8th Matt Cartwright Electiondot.png Democratic R+4
Pennsylvania's 9th Dan Meuser Ends.png Republican R+21
Pennsylvania's 10th Scott Perry Ends.png Republican R+5
Pennsylvania's 11th Lloyd Smucker Ends.png Republican R+13
Pennsylvania's 12th Open Electiondot.png Democratic D+8
Pennsylvania's 13th John Joyce Ends.png Republican R+25
Pennsylvania's 14th Guy Reschenthaler Ends.png Republican R+18
Pennsylvania's 15th Glenn Thompson Ends.png Republican R+21
Pennsylvania's 16th Mike Kelly Ends.png Republican R+13
Pennsylvania's 17th Open Electiondot.png Democratic Even


2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Pennsylvania[68]
District Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
Pennsylvania's 1st 51.8% 47.2%
Pennsylvania's 2nd 71.0% 28.3%
Pennsylvania's 3rd 90.2% 9.3%
Pennsylvania's 4th 58.9% 40.0%
Pennsylvania's 5th 65.7% 33.4%
Pennsylvania's 6th 56.8% 42.0%
Pennsylvania's 7th 49.7% 49.1%
Pennsylvania's 8th 48.0% 50.9%
Pennsylvania's 9th 31.0% 67.5%
Pennsylvania's 10th 47.2% 51.3%
Pennsylvania's 11th 38.6% 59.9%
Pennsylvania's 12th 59.4% 39.5%
Pennsylvania's 13th 26.8% 72.0%
Pennsylvania's 14th 33.7% 65.2%
Pennsylvania's 15th 30.8% 67.8%
Pennsylvania's 16th 39.0% 59.7%
Pennsylvania's 17th 52.3% 46.5%


2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:


Following the 2020 presidential election, 47.2% of Pennsylvanians lived in one of the state's 10 Solid Democratic counties, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 41.7% lived in one of 53 Solid Republican counties. Overall, Pennsylvania was Battleground Democratic, having voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Pennsylvania following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

Historical voting trends

Pennsylvania presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 14 Democratic wins
  • 16 Republican wins
  • 1 other win
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party R R R P[69] R R R R R D D D R R R D D D R D R R R D D D D D D R D

Statewide elections

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from Pennsylvania

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania.

U.S. Senate election results in Pennsylvania
Race Winner Runner up
2018 55.7%Democratic Party 42.6%Republican Party
2016 48.9%Republican Party 47.2%Democratic Party
2012 53.7%Democratic Party 44.6%Republican Party
2010 51.0%Republican Party 49.0%Democratic Party
2006 58.7%Democratic Party 41.3%Republican Party
Average 53.6 44.9

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of Pennsylvania

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania.

Gubernatorial election results in Pennsylvania
Race Winner Runner up
2018 57.8%Democratic Party 40.7%Republican Party
2014 54.9%Democratic Party 45.1%Republican Party
2010 54.5%Republican Party 45.5%Democratic Party
2006 60.3%Democratic Party 39.6%Republican Party
2002 53.4%Democratic Party 44.4%Republican Party
Average 56.2 43.1

State partisanship

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Pennsylvania's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Pennsylvania, November 2022
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 1 9 10
Republican 1 9 10
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 18 20

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Pennsylvania's top four state executive offices as of November 2022.

State executive officials in Pennsylvania, November 2022
Office Officeholder
Governor Democratic Party Tom Wolf
Lieutenant Governor Democratic Party John Fetterman
Secretary of State Democratic Party Leigh Chapman
Attorney General Democratic Party Josh Shapiro

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Pennsylvania General Assembly as of November 2022.

Pennsylvania State Senate

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 21
     Republican Party 28
     Independent 1
     Vacancies 0
Total 50

Pennsylvania House of Representatives

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 88
     Republican Party 113
     Vacancies 2
Total 203

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Pennsylvania was a divided government, with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republican majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2022
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D
Senate R D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R

Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Pennsylvania and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

Demographic Data for Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania United States
Population 12,702,379 308,745,538
Land area (sq mi) 44,742 3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White 80.5% 72.5%
Black/African American 11.2% 12.7%
Asian 3.4% 5.5%
Native American 0.2% 0.8%
Pacific Islander 0% 0.2%
Other (single race) 2.2% 4.9%
Multiple 2.5% 3.3%
Hispanic/Latino 7.3% 18%
Education
High school graduation rate 90.5% 88%
College graduation rate 31.4% 32.1%
Income
Median household income $61,744 $62,843
Persons below poverty level 12.4% 13.4%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Pennsylvania in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Pennsylvania, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2022
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Ballot-qualified party 2,000 $200.00 3/15/2022 Source
Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Unaffiliated 2% of the largest entire vote cast for any elected statewide candidate in the last election $200.00 8/1/2022 Source

Election history

See also: List of United States Senators from Pennsylvania

2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania

Incumbent Bob Casey Jr. defeated Lou Barletta, Dale Kerns, and Neal Gale in the general election for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Bob Casey Jr.
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
 
55.7
 
2,792,437
Image of Lou Barletta
Lou Barletta (R) Candidate Connection
 
42.6
 
2,134,848
Image of Dale Kerns
Dale Kerns (L) Candidate Connection
 
1.0
 
50,907
Image of Neal Gale
Neal Gale (G) Candidate Connection
 
0.6
 
31,208

Total votes: 5,009,400
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016

The race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat was one of nine competitive battleground races in 2016 that helped Republicans keep control of the upper chamber after the November 8 general election. Incumbent Pat Toomey (R), who began serving in the Senate in 2011, defeated Katie McGinty (D), Edward Clifford III (L), and write-in candidate Everett Stern (I) in the general election.

Toomey ran his campaign separately from Donald Trump, and he did not tell people who he would vote for on Election Day. Toomey said, “You know, I’m not campaigning with Donald Trump. He’s running his campaign. I’m running mine.”[70][71][72]

Hillary Clinton, who campaigned with McGinty in October, criticized Toomey for not rejecting Trump as his party’s nominee. She said, “How much does he have to hear or to see? If he doesn’t have the courage to stand up against Donald Trump after all of this, then how will he stand up to special interests and powerful forces that are going to be trying to have their way in Washington?”[72]

Speaking about his campaign strategy, Toomey said, “I am convinced that Pennsylvania voters are going to make a complete separation in their minds. … There’s a presidential race going on, quite obviously, lots of attention, lots of focus, everybody’s got their opinion about it, and then there’s a totally separate thing happening in the Senate race — an incumbent senator most people know and an opponent. Totally separate campaign and totally separate judgment.”[72] Toomey stated on Election Day that he voted for Trump.[73]


U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPat Toomey Incumbent 48.8% 2,951,702
     Democratic Katie McGinty 47.3% 2,865,012
     Libertarian Edward Clifford 3.9% 235,142
Total Votes 6,051,856
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngKatie McGinty 42.5% 669,774
Joe Sestak 32.6% 513,221
John Fetterman 19.5% 307,090
Joseph Vodvarka 5.4% 85,837
Total Votes 1,575,922
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

2012

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBob Casey Jr. Incumbent 53.7% 3,021,364
     Republican Tom Smith 44.6% 2,509,132
     Libertarian Rayburn Douglas Smith 1.7% 96,926
Total Votes 5,627,422
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

2022 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 The Hill, "Pennsylvania officially orders recount in GOP Senate primary," May 25, 2022
  2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 NewsTimes, "Recount begins in Pennsylvania's GOP primary for Senate," May 27, 2022
  3. Mehmet Oz's 2022 campaign website, "Meet Dr. Oz," accessed April 7, 2022
  4. YouTube, "Fight the Establishment," accessed March 11, 2022
  5. Mehmet Oz's 2022 campaign website, "Response to COVID-19," accessed April 7, 2022
  6. Dave McCormick's 2022 campaign website, "Home," accessed April 7, 2022
  7. Dave McCormick's 2022 campaign website, "On the issues," accessed April 7, 2022
  8. Kathy Barnette's 2022 campaign website, "About Kathy Barnette," accessed May 9, 2022
  9. Kathy Barnette's 2022 campaign website, "Day One," accessed May 10, 2022
  10. 10.0 10.1 Twitter, "Blake Hounshell on April 9, 2022," accessed April 10, 2022
  11. NBC News, "Trump, GOP rivals unload on Kathy Barnette as she rises in Pa. Senate primary," May 12, 2022
  12. Associated Press, "Trump scrambles to fend off Oz challenger in Pa. Senate race," May 13, 2022
  13. 13.0 13.1 6ABC, "Oz wins Pennsylvania Senate primary ahead of showdown with Fetterman," June 8, 2022
  14. 14.0 14.1 Politico, "Pa. GOP Senate race upended by court cases," May 31, 2022
  15. Associated Press, "McCormick concedes to Oz in Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary," June 3, 2022
  16. 6ABC, "Pennsylvania court orders contested ballots counted in Senate primary," June 3, 2022
  17. 17.0 17.1 The Philadelphia Inquirer, "More counties finish their recounts in Pa. Republican Senate race; effects of Supreme Court order on ballots unclear," June 2, 2022
  18. WestLaw, "Chapter 14. Election Code," accessed September 24, 2025
  19. RealClearPolitics, "OVERVIEW: PA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY FOR US SENATE/GOVERNOR," May 16, 2022
  20. The Trafalgar Group, "Pennsylvania GOP Primary Statewide Survey - May 2022," accessed May 17, 2022
  21. ABC 27, "Pa Senate race: Oz leads Barnette, McCormick in new Emerson Poll," May 15, 2022
  22. YouTube, "Sarah Huckabee Sanders Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate," accessed May 11, 2022
  23. 23.0 23.1 Associated Press, "Conservative groups go against Trump, Oz in Pa. Senate race," May 11, 2022
  24. Fox News, "Fox News Poll: Three-way race in Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary election," May 10, 2022
  25. Fox 29, "InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll shows Oz leading tight US Senate race in PA ahead of Barnette, McCormick," May 10, 2022
  26. Mehmet Oz's 2022 campaign website, "Senator Kevin Cramer Endorses Dr. Mehmet Oz," May 9, 2022
  27. Pennsylvania Capital-Star, "Chesapeake Bay advocates praise feds for new conservation funds | Monday Morning Coffee," May 9, 2022
  28. Monmouth University, "Partisan Picture Of Senate Primary," April 27, 2022
  29. WKBN, "Oz, Mastriano lead latest Pennsylvania Senate, Governor polls," April 15, 2022
  30. My Twin Tiers, "Pennsylvania GOP congressman endorses McCormick, Gerow," April 14, 2022
  31. Facebook, "Dr. Mehmet Oz on April 13, 2022," accessed April 14, 2022
  32. Twitter, "Jonathan Tamari on April 11, 2022," accessed April 12, 2022
  33. Axios, "Scoop: Rick Santorum endorses Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania Senate race," April 10, 2022
  34. 34.0 34.1 Penn Live, "Pa.’s Republican Senate hopefuls, minus one, bring primary campaign to a conservative Nirvana," April 2, 2022
  35. 35.0 35.1 Associated Press, "Forum gets tense in GOP’s sharp-elbowed US Senate primary," March 30, 2022
  36. 36.0 36.1 Lancaster Online, "Republican candidates for Pa. governor, U.S. Senate join forums; here's how to watch," March 29, 2022
  37. 37.0 37.1 Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry, "Four GOP Candidates Square Off in PA Chamber Sponsored Debate," accessed April 6, 2022
  38. Twitter, "Andrew Kaczynski on May 12, 2022," accessed May 13, 2022
  39. Twitter, "AdImpact Politics on April 7, 2022," accessed April 13, 2022
  40. Ad reported by AdImpact Politics on April 7, 2022.'’
  41. Axios, "Mandel super PAC pivots to attacking Dr. Oz," May 5, 2022
  42. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Pa. GOP Senate debate: Front-runners Oz, McCormick again defend conservative records," May 4, 2022
  43. WGAL, "Republican candidates for Pennsylvania's US Senate seat debate for second night," April 27, 2022
  44. The Hill, "Takeaways from Monday’s Pennsylvania GOP Senate debate," April 25, 2022
  45. For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
  46. Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
  47. 47.0 47.1 RV=Registered Voters
    LV=Likely Voters
  48. 48.0 48.1 The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
  49. Reported as "Not sure" (24%) and "Other" (1%).
  50. Includes "Undecided" (39%), "Someone else" (5%), and "None" (1%).
  51. Undecided/other was not reported in this poll.
  52. Undecided voters were allocated to who they leaned towards.
  53. Includes "Do not know" (43%) and "Someone else" (6%).
  54. Includes "Undecided how I will vote" (25%) and "Another candidate not listed" (6%).
  55. Includes "Do not know" (53%) and "Someone else" (3%).
  56. Includes "Undecided" (51%) and "Another candidate" (11%).
  57. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  58. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  59. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  60. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  61. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  62. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  63. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
  64. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
  65. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
  66. Twitter, "Shane Goldmacher on May 10, 2022," accessed May 10, 2022
  67. The New York Times, "Club for Growth Starts Ad Blitz for Kathy Barnette in Pennsylvania Senate Primary," May 11, 2022
  68. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022
  69. Progressive Party
  70. Real Clear Politics, "Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein," accessed October 24, 2016
  71. Real Clear Politics, "Pennsylvania Senate - Toomey vs. McGinty," accessed October 24, 2016
  72. 72.0 72.1 72.2 The Los Angeles Times, "A Republican Senator's strategy to save his seat in one of the country's tightest races: Avoid Trump," accessed October 24, 2016
  73. The New York Times, "Patrick Toomey Wins Re-election in Pennsylvania Senate Race," accessed November 11, 2016
  74. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  75. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  76. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  77. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013


Senators
Representatives
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Republican Party (11)
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