United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)
- Primary date: May 17
- Mail-in registration deadline: May 2
- Online reg. deadline: May 2
- In-person reg. deadline: May 2
- Early voting starts: N/A
- Early voting ends: May 10
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
- Absentee/mail-in deadline: May 17
2024 →
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|
| U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania |
|---|
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 15, 2022 |
| Primary: May 17, 2022 General: November 8, 2022 Pre-election incumbent: Pat Toomey (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Pennsylvania |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Toss-up Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th Pennsylvania elections, 2022 U.S. Congress elections, 2022 U.S. Senate elections, 2022 U.S. House elections, 2022 |
Mehmet Oz defeated six other candidates in the Republican primary election for U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania on May 17, 2022. Following a recount, Oz beat David McCormick by 951 votes. Oz received 31.2% of the vote, McCormick received 31.1%, and Kathy Barnette received 24.7%. Sen. Pat Toomey (R) did not run for re-election.
Pennsylvania law required Pennsylvania Secretary of State Leigh Chapman to order a recount because the initial vote margin was within 0.5% of the total vote.[1] The recount began on May 27 and ended on June 8.[2] To learn more about the recount, click here.
Oz is an author and former surgeon. He hosted The Dr. Oz Show from 2009 to January 2022 and appeared as a regular guest on The Oprah Winfrey Show. Oz received his bachelor's degree from Harvard University, and his medical and business degrees from the University of Pennsylvania.[3] Oz's campaign portrayed him as a political outsider, with a campaign ad likening him to former Presidents Ronald Reagan and Trump, saying they each started in Hollywood before going to Washington to fight the establishment.[4] Oz used his background in medicine to highlight disagreements with how the Biden administration handled the COVID-19 pandemic.[5]
McCormick was the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, an investment management firm, from 2017 to January 2022. Before joining Bridgewater in 2009, he served as Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security and as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs in the George W. Bush (R) administration. McCormick graduated from West Point and served in the United States Army during the Gulf War.[6] McCormick's campaign focused on economic issues and the relationship between the United States and China.[7]
Barnette worked as a political commentator and in corporate finance after serving in the United States Army Reserve.[8] Barnette identified herself as an America First candidate, a term often associated with the platform of Trump and candidates who say they support Trump's agenda. Barnette also campaigned on limiting her service in the U.S. Senate to two terms and a pledge that neither she nor her husband would own or trade individual stocks.[9]
On April 9, 2022, former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Oz.[10] On May 12, Trump issued a statement opposing Barnette. "Barnette will never be able to win the General Election against the Radical Left Democrats. She has many things in her past which have not been properly explained or vetted," he said.[11] In response to Trump's statement, Barnette said, "It sounds like the president knows what’s going to happen on next Tuesday . . . We now have the opportunity where the people are making their voices heard on what kind of leadership they want — and they don’t want to be spoon-fed two globalists, as many influencers within the Republican Party are trying to sell us, they want a real conservative."[12]
At the time of the primary election, three independent race forecasters rated the general election either Toss-up or Tilt Republican. President Joe Biden (D) won the state by 1.2 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) won re-election by 13 percentage points in 2018. Toomey won re-election in 2016 by 1.5 percentage points.
Also running in the primary were Jeff Bartos, George Bochetto, Sean Gale, and Carla Sands.
Ronald Johnson (R) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Click on a candidate's name to view that candidate's responses.
This page focuses on Pennsylvania's United States Senate Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the state's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:
- United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022
Election recount
Pennsylvania law required a recount because the initial vote margin was within 0.5% of the total vote. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Leigh Chapman ordered a recount on May 25 that lasted from May 27 to June 8.[2] Before the recount, Oz led McCormick by 902 votes.[1] Based on final results, Oz beat McCormick by 951 votes.[13]
McCormick's campaign sued to have ballots counted that were mailed and received on or before election day but did not have a written date on the envelope. The lawsuit cited a ruling by the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit in a case relating to a 2021 judicial election that required such ballots to be counted.[1] On May 31, the Supreme Court of the United States issued an administrative stay of the Third Circuit's ruling pending further action, meaning such ballots would not have to be counted.[14]
Recount timeline
Click below to view a timeline of the recount, including lawsuits, rulings, and vote totals.
Recount laws in Pennsylvania
- See also: Recount laws in Pennsylvania
The list below shows answers to common questions regarding recounts in Pennsylvania.[18]
- Does state law require automatic recounts?
- Yes, when the margin for a statewide office or ballot measure is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote. An automatic recount may be required in the event of certain discrepancies described below.
- When must an automatic recount be completed?
- No later than the first Tuesday after the third Wednesday following the election.
- Can a recount be requested?
- Yes, the recount can be requested within five days of the election or within five days after the computational canvass if requested through the court of common pleas. No margin is required and there is no set deadline for completion.
- Who pays for a requested recount?
- The requester.
- Is a refund available for requested recount costs?
- Yes. Costs paid by the requester are refunded if the recount reveals substantial error or fraud.
- Can a partial recount be requested?
- Yes.
Election news
Click below to view a timeline leading up to the election, including polling, debates, and other noteworthy events.
Candidates and election results
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania
The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania on May 17, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Mehmet Oz | 31.2 | 420,168 | |
| David McCormick | 31.1 | 419,218 | ||
| Kathy Barnette | 24.7 | 331,903 | ||
| Carla Sands | 5.4 | 73,360 | ||
| Jeff Bartos | 5.0 | 66,684 | ||
| Sean Gale | 1.5 | 20,266 | ||
| George Bochetto | 1.1 | 14,492 | ||
| Total votes: 1,346,091 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- John Debellis (R)
- Max Richardson (R)
- John Eichenberg (R)
- Vince Fusca (R)
- Martin Rosenfeld (R)
- Bobby Jeffries (R)
- Richard Mulholland (R)
- Sean Parnell (R)
- Ronald Johnson (R)
- Craig Snyder (R)
- David Xu (R)
Candidate comparison
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Biography: Barnette received a bachelor's degree from Troy State University and a master's degree from Fontbonne University. Her professional experience includes working as a political commentator and adjunct professor of corporate finance. She served in the United States Army Reserves for 10 years.
Show sources
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania in 2022.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Biography: McCormick received his bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point and his Ph.D. in international affairs from Princeton University. His professional experience includes working as the CEO of Bridgewater Associates, an investment management firm, and under secretary in both the Department of Commerce and Department of the Treasury. He served in the Army's 82nd Airborne Division during the Gulf War.
Show sources
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania in 2022.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Biography: Oz received his bachelor's degree from Harvard University and a joint M.D. and M.B.A. from the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine and Wharton Business School. His professional experience includes working as an attending physician at NY Presbyterian-Columbia Medical Center, host of The Dr. Oz Show, health expert on The Oprah Winfrey Show, and author.
Show sources
Sources: YouTube, "Fight the Establishment," accessed March 11, 2022 ; Mehmet Oz's 2022 campaign website, "Response to COVID-19," accessed April 7, 2022 ; Mehmet Oz's 2022 campaign website, "Grow our economy," accessed April 7, 2022; Mehmet Oz's 2022 campaign website, "Meet Dr. Oz," accessed April 7, 2022
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania in 2022.
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.
Campaign advertisements
This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.
Kathy Barnette
| May 14, 2021 |
| March 22, 2022 |
| March 15, 2022 |
View more ads here:
Jeff Bartos
| March 8, 2021 |
View more ads here:
George Bochetto
| April 1, 2022 |
| March 17, 2022 |
| January 10, 2022 |
View more ads here:
Sean Gale
| March 8, 2021 |
View more ads here:
David McCormick
| May 15, 2022 |
| May 9, 2022 |
| May 5, 2022 |
View more ads here:
Mehmet Oz
| May 13, 2022 |
| May 10, 2022 |
| April 29, 2022 |
View more ads here:
Carla Sands
| May 9, 2022 |
| April 20, 2022 |
| February 11, 2022 |
View more ads here:
Satellite ads
This section includes a selection of campaign advertisements released by satellite groups. If you are aware of other satellite ads that should be included, please email us.
American Leadership Action
On May 11, 2022, American Leadership Action published an ad opposing Barnette.[38] That ad is embedded below.
| May 11, 2022 |
Honor Pennsylvania
As of April 9, 2022, Honor Pennsylvania had spent $9.8 million on ads.[39] A selection of those ads are included below:
| April 27, 2022 |
USA Freedom Fund
On May 5, 2022, Axios reported that the USA Freedom Fund, a super PAC affiliated with Ohio U.S. Senate candidate Josh Mandel (R), ran digital ads in opposition of Oz.[41]
Debates and forums
This section includes links to debates, forums, and other similar events where multiple candidates in this race participated. If you are aware of any debates or forums that should be included, please email us.
May 4 debate
On May 4, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, McCormick, Oz, and Sands participated in a debate at Grove City College hosted by Newsmax.[42]
Click on the links below for a summary of the event:
April 26 debate
On April 26, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, Bochetto, Gale, and Sands participated in a debate at Dickinson College in Carlisle.[43]
Click on the links below for a summary of the event:
April 25 debate
On April 25, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, McCormick, Oz, and Sands participated in a debate in Harrisburg.[44]
Click on the links below for a summary of the event:
April 2 forum
On April 2, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, Bochetto, Gale, Oz, and Sands participated in a forum at the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference.[34]
Click on the link below for a summary of the event:
March 30 forum
On March 30, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, McCormick, and Oz participated in a forum at the Manufacturer & Business Association offices in Erie.[35]
Click on the link below for a summary of the event:
March 29 forum
On March 29, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, Bochetto, and Gale participated in a forum sponsored by the Delaware Valley Journal.[36]
Click on the link below for a summary of the event:
February 21 debate
On Feb. 21, 2022, Barnette, Bartos, Bochetto, and Stern participated in a debate at Villanova University hosted by the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry.[37]
Click on the link below for a summary of the event:
News and conflicts in this primary
This race was featured in The Heart of the Primaries, a newsletter capturing stories related to conflicts within each major party. Click here to read more about conflict in this and other 2022 Republican Senate primaries. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter.
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 24 (May 26, 2022)
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 23 (May 19, 2022)
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 22 (May 12, 2022)
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 18 (April 14, 2022)
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 17 (April 7, 2022)
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 9 (February 10, 2022)
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 7 (January 27, 2022)
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 6 (January 20, 2022)
- Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 2 (December 2, 2021)
Noteworthy endorsements
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.
Election competitiveness
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[45] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[46] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.
Below we provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation. We only report polls for which we can find a margin of error or credibility interval.
| U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022: Republican primary election polls | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Date | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size[47] | Sponsor[48] | |||||||
| Trafalgar Group | May 14-16, 2022 | 27% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 22% | 29% | 7% | 6% | ± 2.9 | 1,195 LV | N/A |
| Emerson College | May 14-15, 2022 | 27% | 6% | 1% | — | 26% | 32% | 7% | 15% | ± 3.0 | 1,000 RV | N/A |
| Susquehanna | May 12-15, 2022 | 27% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 11% | 28% | 3% | 25%[49] | ± 3.0 | 400 RV | N/A |
| FOX29/InsiderAdvantage | May 7-9, 2022 | 21% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 19% | 23% | 5% | 26% | ± 3.6 | 750 LV | N/A |
| Fox News | May 7-8, 2022 | 19% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 20% | 22% | 8% | 18% | ± 3.0 | 1,001 RV | N/A |
| Click [show] to see older poll results | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Date | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size[47] | Sponsor[48] | |||||||
| Trafalgar Group | May 6-8, 2022 | 23% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 22% | 25% | 7% | 15% | ± 3.0 | 1,080 LV | N/A |
| Franklin & Marshall College | April 20-May 1, 2022 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 16% | 18% | 5% | 45%[50] | ± 6.9 | 325 RV | N/A |
| Monmouth University | April 20-25, 2022 | 18% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 19% | 22% | 9% | —[51] | ± 4.9 | 407 RV | N/A |
| Trafalgar Group | April 11-13, 2022 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 20% | 23% | 11% | 17% | ± 3.0 | 1,074 LV | N/A |
| The Hill/Emerson College | April 3-4, 2022 | 15% | 17% | 5% | 4% | 27% | 21% | 11% | —[52] | ± 3.0 | 1,000 LV | N/A |
| Franklin & Marshall College | March 30-April 10, 2022 | 7% | 6% | 2% | — | 15% | 16% | 5% | 49%[53] | ± 4.2 | 356 RV | N/A |
| The Hill/Emerson College | March 26-28, 2022 | 6% | 5% | 2% | — | 14% | 14% | 6% | 51% | ± 5.0 | 372 RV | N/A |
| Fox News | March 2-6, 2022 | 9% | 9% | 1% | — | 24% | 15% | 6% | 31% | ± 3.0 | 960 LV | N/A |
| Washington Free Beacon/TargetPoint | February 25-28, 2022 | 5% | 10% | — | — | 25% | 19% | 11% | 31%[54] | ± 4.0 | 600 LV | N/A |
| Franklin & Marshall College | February 21-27, 2022 | 6% | 4% | — | — | 13% | 10% | 11% | 56%[55] | ± 9.9 | 185 LV | N/A |
| Trafalgar Group | February 1-4, 2022 | 9% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 16% | 27% | 15% | 22% | ± 3.0 | 1,070 LV | N/A |
| Trafalgar Group | December 13-16, 2021 | 8% | 3% | — | 1% | — | 19% | 7% | 62%[56] | ± 3.0 | 1,062 LV | N/A |
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[57]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[58][59][60]
| Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 8, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | October 18, 2022 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. | |||||||||
Election spending
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[61] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[62] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.
| U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Report | Close of books | Filing deadline |
| Year-end 2021 | 12/31/2021 | 1/31/2022 |
| April quarterly | 3/31/2022 | 4/15/2022 |
| July quarterly | 6/30/2022 | 7/15/2022 |
| October quarterly | 9/30/2022 | 10/15/2022 |
| Pre-general | 10/19/2022 | 10/27/2022 |
| Post-general | 11/28/2022 | 12/08/2022 |
| Year-end 2022 | 12/31/2022 | 1/31/2023 |
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kathy Barnette | Republican Party | $2,620,371 | $2,501,413 | $234,707 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Jeff Bartos | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| George Bochetto | Republican Party | $929,913 | $929,913 | $0 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Sean Gale | Republican Party | $55,099 | $55,099 | $0 | As of October 12, 2022 |
| David McCormick | Republican Party | $20,310,512 | $20,302,691 | $7,821 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Mehmet Oz | Republican Party | $51,080,109 | $49,392,955 | $1,687,154 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Carla Sands | Republican Party | $8,856,511 | $8,856,511 | $0 | As of August 30, 2022 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[63][64][65]
If available, links to satellite spending reports by the Federal Election Commission and OpenSecrets.org are linked below. Any satellite spending reported in other resources is displayed in a table. This table may not represent the actual total amount spent by satellite groups in the election. Satellite spending for which specific amounts, dates, or purposes are not reported are marked "N/A." To help us complete this information, or to notify us of additional satellite spending, email us.
| Satellite spending in U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organization | Amount | Date | Purpose | |||||||||||
| Club for Growth | $2,000,000 | May 11, 2022 | Ads supporting Barnette[66][67] | |||||||||||
Election analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
- Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
- State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
- Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
Presidential elections
Cook PVI by congressional district
| Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for Pennsylvania, 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI |
| Pennsylvania's 1st | Brian Fitzpatrick | Even | |
| Pennsylvania's 2nd | Brendan Boyle | D+20 | |
| Pennsylvania's 3rd | Dwight Evans | D+39 | |
| Pennsylvania's 4th | Madeleine Dean | D+7 | |
| Pennsylvania's 5th | Mary Gay Scanlon | D+14 | |
| Pennsylvania's 6th | Chrissy Houlahan | D+5 | |
| Pennsylvania's 7th | Susan Wild | R+2 | |
| Pennsylvania's 8th | Matt Cartwright | R+4 | |
| Pennsylvania's 9th | Dan Meuser | R+21 | |
| Pennsylvania's 10th | Scott Perry | R+5 | |
| Pennsylvania's 11th | Lloyd Smucker | R+13 | |
| Pennsylvania's 12th | Open | D+8 | |
| Pennsylvania's 13th | John Joyce | R+25 | |
| Pennsylvania's 14th | Guy Reschenthaler | R+18 | |
| Pennsylvania's 15th | Glenn Thompson | R+21 | |
| Pennsylvania's 16th | Mike Kelly | R+13 | |
| Pennsylvania's 17th | Open | Even | |
2020 presidential results by 2022 congressional district lines
| 2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2022 district lines, Pennsylvania[68] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Joe Biden |
Donald Trump | ||
| Pennsylvania's 1st | 51.8% | 47.2% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 2nd | 71.0% | 28.3% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 3rd | 90.2% | 9.3% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 4th | 58.9% | 40.0% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 5th | 65.7% | 33.4% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 6th | 56.8% | 42.0% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 7th | 49.7% | 49.1% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 8th | 48.0% | 50.9% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 9th | 31.0% | 67.5% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 10th | 47.2% | 51.3% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 11th | 38.6% | 59.9% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 12th | 59.4% | 39.5% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 13th | 26.8% | 72.0% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 14th | 33.7% | 65.2% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 15th | 30.8% | 67.8% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 16th | 39.0% | 59.7% | ||
| Pennsylvania's 17th | 52.3% | 46.5% | ||
2012-2020
How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:
| County-level voting pattern categories | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | |||||||
| Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Solid Democratic | D | D | D | ||||
| Trending Democratic | R | D | D | ||||
| Battleground Democratic | D | R | D | ||||
| New Democratic | R | R | D | ||||
| Republican | |||||||
| Status | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Solid Republican | R | R | R | ||||
| Trending Republican | D | R | R | ||||
| Battleground Republican | R | D | R | ||||
| New Republican | D | D | R | ||||
Following the 2020 presidential election, 47.2% of Pennsylvanians lived in one of the state's 10 Solid Democratic counties, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 41.7% lived in one of 53 Solid Republican counties. Overall, Pennsylvania was Battleground Democratic, having voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012, Donald Trump (R) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in Pennsylvania following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.
| Pennsylvania county-level statistics, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solid Democratic | 10 | 47.2% | |||||
| Solid Republican | 53 | 41.7% | |||||
| Battleground Democratic | 2 | 4.5% | |||||
| Trending Democratic | 1 | 4.1% | |||||
| Trending Republican | 1 | 2.5% | |||||
| Total voted Democratic | 13 | 55.8% | |||||
| Total voted Republican | 54 | 44.2% | |||||
Historical voting trends
Pennsylvania presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 14 Democratic wins
- 16 Republican wins
- 1 other win
| Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winning Party | R | R | R | P[69] | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | R | R | R | D | D | D | R | D | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | D |
Statewide elections
This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.
U.S. Senate elections
The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania.
| U.S. Senate election results in Pennsylvania | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Winner | Runner up |
| 2018 | 55.7% |
42.6% |
| 2016 | 48.9% |
47.2% |
| 2012 | 53.7% |
44.6% |
| 2010 | 51.0% |
49.0% |
| 2006 | 58.7% |
41.3% |
| Average | 53.6 | 44.9 |
Gubernatorial elections
- See also: Governor of Pennsylvania
The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania.
| Gubernatorial election results in Pennsylvania | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Winner | Runner up |
| 2018 | 57.8% |
40.7% |
| 2014 | 54.9% |
45.1% |
| 2010 | 54.5% |
45.5% |
| 2006 | 60.3% |
39.6% |
| 2002 | 53.4% |
44.4% |
| Average | 56.2 | 43.1 |
State partisanship
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Pennsylvania's congressional delegation as of November 2022.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Pennsylvania, November 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Republican | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 18 | 20 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Pennsylvania's top four state executive offices as of November 2022.
| State executive officials in Pennsylvania, November 2022 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | |
| Lieutenant Governor | |
| Secretary of State | |
| Attorney General | |
State legislature
The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Pennsylvania General Assembly as of November 2022.
Pennsylvania State Senate
| Party | As of November 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 21 | |
| Republican Party | 28 | |
| Independent | 1 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 50 | |
Pennsylvania House of Representatives
| Party | As of November 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 88 | |
| Republican Party | 113 | |
| Vacancies | 2 | |
| Total | 203 | |
Trifecta control
As of November 2022, Pennsylvania was a divided government, with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republican majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.
Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2022
One year of a Democratic trifecta • Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Demographics
The table below details demographic data in Pennsylvania and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.
| Demographic Data for Pennsylvania | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | United States | |
| Population | 12,702,379 | 308,745,538 |
| Land area (sq mi) | 44,742 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White | 80.5% | 72.5% |
| Black/African American | 11.2% | 12.7% |
| Asian | 3.4% | 5.5% |
| Native American | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander | 0% | 0.2% |
| Other (single race) | 2.2% | 4.9% |
| Multiple | 2.5% | 3.3% |
| Hispanic/Latino | 7.3% | 18% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate | 90.5% | 88% |
| College graduation rate | 31.4% | 32.1% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income | $61,744 | $62,843 |
| Persons below poverty level | 12.4% | 13.4% |
| Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019). | ||
| **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
Election context
Ballot access requirements
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in Pennsylvania in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Pennsylvania, click here.
| Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2022 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
| Pennsylvania | U.S. Senate | Ballot-qualified party | 2,000 | $200.00 | 3/15/2022 | Source |
| Pennsylvania | U.S. Senate | Unaffiliated | 2% of the largest entire vote cast for any elected statewide candidate in the last election | $200.00 | 8/1/2022 | Source |
Election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania
Incumbent Bob Casey Jr. defeated Lou Barletta, Dale Kerns, and Neal Gale in the general election for U.S. Senate Pennsylvania on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Bob Casey Jr. (D) | 55.7 | 2,792,437 | |
Lou Barletta (R) ![]() | 42.6 | 2,134,848 | ||
Dale Kerns (L) ![]() | 1.0 | 50,907 | ||
Neal Gale (G) ![]() | 0.6 | 31,208 | ||
| Total votes: 5,009,400 | ||||
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2016
The race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat was one of nine competitive battleground races in 2016 that helped Republicans keep control of the upper chamber after the November 8 general election. Incumbent Pat Toomey (R), who began serving in the Senate in 2011, defeated Katie McGinty (D), Edward Clifford III (L), and write-in candidate Everett Stern (I) in the general election.
Toomey ran his campaign separately from Donald Trump, and he did not tell people who he would vote for on Election Day. Toomey said, “You know, I’m not campaigning with Donald Trump. He’s running his campaign. I’m running mine.”[70][71][72]
Hillary Clinton, who campaigned with McGinty in October, criticized Toomey for not rejecting Trump as his party’s nominee. She said, “How much does he have to hear or to see? If he doesn’t have the courage to stand up against Donald Trump after all of this, then how will he stand up to special interests and powerful forces that are going to be trying to have their way in Washington?”[72]
Speaking about his campaign strategy, Toomey said, “I am convinced that Pennsylvania voters are going to make a complete separation in their minds. … There’s a presidential race going on, quite obviously, lots of attention, lots of focus, everybody’s got their opinion about it, and then there’s a totally separate thing happening in the Senate race — an incumbent senator most people know and an opponent. Totally separate campaign and totally separate judgment.”[72] Toomey stated on Election Day that he voted for Trump.[73]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 48.8% | 2,951,702 | ||
| Democratic | Katie McGinty | 47.3% | 2,865,012 | |
| Libertarian | Edward Clifford | 3.9% | 235,142 | |
| Total Votes | 6,051,856 | |||
| Source: Pennsylvania Department of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
42.5% | 669,774 | ||
| Joe Sestak | 32.6% | 513,221 | ||
| John Fetterman | 19.5% | 307,090 | ||
| Joseph Vodvarka | 5.4% | 85,837 | ||
| Total Votes | 1,575,922 | |||
| Source: Pennsylvania Department of State |
||||
2012
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 53.7% | 3,021,364 | ||
| Republican | Tom Smith | 44.6% | 2,509,132 | |
| Libertarian | Rayburn Douglas Smith | 1.7% | 96,926 | |
| Total Votes | 5,627,422 | |||
| Source: Pennsylvania Department of State | ||||
To view the electoral history dating back to 2000 for the office of U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, click [show] to expand the section. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010On November 2, 2010, Pat Toomey won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Joe Sestak in the general election.[74]
2006On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr. won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Rick Santorum (R) and various write-in candidates in the general election.[75] 2004On November 2, 2004, Arlen Specter won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Joseph M. Hoeffel (D), James N. Clymer (Constitution), Betsy Summers (Libertarian) and various other challengers in the general election.[76] 2000On November 7, 2000, Rick Santorum won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Ron Klink (D), John J. Featherman (L), Robert E. Domske (Reform) and Lester B. Searer (Constitution) in the general election.[77] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2022 battleground elections
- See also: Battlegrounds
This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:
- Alabama Secretary of State election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary runoff)
- Michigan's 8th Congressional District election, 2022
- Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022
- North Carolina's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary)
- Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary)
See also
- United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2022
- United States Senate Democratic Party primaries, 2022
- United States Senate Republican Party primaries, 2022
- United States Senate elections, 2022
- U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2022
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 The Hill, "Pennsylvania officially orders recount in GOP Senate primary," May 25, 2022
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 NewsTimes, "Recount begins in Pennsylvania's GOP primary for Senate," May 27, 2022
- ↑ Mehmet Oz's 2022 campaign website, "Meet Dr. Oz," accessed April 7, 2022
- ↑ YouTube, "Fight the Establishment," accessed March 11, 2022
- ↑ Mehmet Oz's 2022 campaign website, "Response to COVID-19," accessed April 7, 2022
- ↑ Dave McCormick's 2022 campaign website, "Home," accessed April 7, 2022
- ↑ Dave McCormick's 2022 campaign website, "On the issues," accessed April 7, 2022
- ↑ Kathy Barnette's 2022 campaign website, "About Kathy Barnette," accessed May 9, 2022
- ↑ Kathy Barnette's 2022 campaign website, "Day One," accessed May 10, 2022
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 Twitter, "Blake Hounshell on April 9, 2022," accessed April 10, 2022
- ↑ NBC News, "Trump, GOP rivals unload on Kathy Barnette as she rises in Pa. Senate primary," May 12, 2022
- ↑ Associated Press, "Trump scrambles to fend off Oz challenger in Pa. Senate race," May 13, 2022
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 6ABC, "Oz wins Pennsylvania Senate primary ahead of showdown with Fetterman," June 8, 2022
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 Politico, "Pa. GOP Senate race upended by court cases," May 31, 2022
- ↑ Associated Press, "McCormick concedes to Oz in Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary," June 3, 2022
- ↑ 6ABC, "Pennsylvania court orders contested ballots counted in Senate primary," June 3, 2022
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 The Philadelphia Inquirer, "More counties finish their recounts in Pa. Republican Senate race; effects of Supreme Court order on ballots unclear," June 2, 2022
- ↑ WestLaw, "Chapter 14. Election Code," accessed September 24, 2025
- ↑ RealClearPolitics, "OVERVIEW: PA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY FOR US SENATE/GOVERNOR," May 16, 2022
- ↑ The Trafalgar Group, "Pennsylvania GOP Primary Statewide Survey - May 2022," accessed May 17, 2022
- ↑ ABC 27, "Pa Senate race: Oz leads Barnette, McCormick in new Emerson Poll," May 15, 2022
- ↑ YouTube, "Sarah Huckabee Sanders Endorses Dave McCormick for Senate," accessed May 11, 2022
- ↑ 23.0 23.1 Associated Press, "Conservative groups go against Trump, Oz in Pa. Senate race," May 11, 2022
- ↑ Fox News, "Fox News Poll: Three-way race in Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary election," May 10, 2022
- ↑ Fox 29, "InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll shows Oz leading tight US Senate race in PA ahead of Barnette, McCormick," May 10, 2022
- ↑ Mehmet Oz's 2022 campaign website, "Senator Kevin Cramer Endorses Dr. Mehmet Oz," May 9, 2022
- ↑ Pennsylvania Capital-Star, "Chesapeake Bay advocates praise feds for new conservation funds | Monday Morning Coffee," May 9, 2022
- ↑ Monmouth University, "Partisan Picture Of Senate Primary," April 27, 2022
- ↑ WKBN, "Oz, Mastriano lead latest Pennsylvania Senate, Governor polls," April 15, 2022
- ↑ My Twin Tiers, "Pennsylvania GOP congressman endorses McCormick, Gerow," April 14, 2022
- ↑ Facebook, "Dr. Mehmet Oz on April 13, 2022," accessed April 14, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "Jonathan Tamari on April 11, 2022," accessed April 12, 2022
- ↑ Axios, "Scoop: Rick Santorum endorses Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania Senate race," April 10, 2022
- ↑ 34.0 34.1 Penn Live, "Pa.’s Republican Senate hopefuls, minus one, bring primary campaign to a conservative Nirvana," April 2, 2022
- ↑ 35.0 35.1 Associated Press, "Forum gets tense in GOP’s sharp-elbowed US Senate primary," March 30, 2022
- ↑ 36.0 36.1 Lancaster Online, "Republican candidates for Pa. governor, U.S. Senate join forums; here's how to watch," March 29, 2022
- ↑ 37.0 37.1 Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry, "Four GOP Candidates Square Off in PA Chamber Sponsored Debate," accessed April 6, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "Andrew Kaczynski on May 12, 2022," accessed May 13, 2022
- ↑ Twitter, "AdImpact Politics on April 7, 2022," accessed April 13, 2022
- ↑ Ad reported by AdImpact Politics on April 7, 2022.'’
- ↑ Axios, "Mandel super PAC pivots to attacking Dr. Oz," May 5, 2022
- ↑ Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Pa. GOP Senate debate: Front-runners Oz, McCormick again defend conservative records," May 4, 2022
- ↑ WGAL, "Republican candidates for Pennsylvania's US Senate seat debate for second night," April 27, 2022
- ↑ The Hill, "Takeaways from Monday’s Pennsylvania GOP Senate debate," April 25, 2022
- ↑ For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
- ↑ 47.0 47.1 RV=Registered Voters
LV=Likely Voters - ↑ 48.0 48.1 The sponsor is the person or group that funded all or part of the poll.
- ↑ Reported as "Not sure" (24%) and "Other" (1%).
- ↑ Includes "Undecided" (39%), "Someone else" (5%), and "None" (1%).
- ↑ Undecided/other was not reported in this poll.
- ↑ Undecided voters were allocated to who they leaned towards.
- ↑ Includes "Do not know" (43%) and "Someone else" (6%).
- ↑ Includes "Undecided how I will vote" (25%) and "Another candidate not listed" (6%).
- ↑ Includes "Do not know" (53%) and "Someone else" (3%).
- ↑ Includes "Undecided" (51%) and "Another candidate" (11%).
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
- ↑ Twitter, "Shane Goldmacher on May 10, 2022," accessed May 10, 2022
- ↑ The New York Times, "Club for Growth Starts Ad Blitz for Kathy Barnette in Pennsylvania Senate Primary," May 11, 2022
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012," accessed September 9, 2022
- ↑ Progressive Party
- ↑ Real Clear Politics, "Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein," accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ Real Clear Politics, "Pennsylvania Senate - Toomey vs. McGinty," accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ 72.0 72.1 72.2 The Los Angeles Times, "A Republican Senator's strategy to save his seat in one of the country's tightest races: Avoid Trump," accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Patrick Toomey Wins Re-election in Pennsylvania Senate Race," accessed November 11, 2016
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013
= candidate completed the