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United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2020 (August 6 Republican primary)

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U.S. Senate, Tennessee
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2020
Primary: August 6, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Lamar Alexander (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by county
Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
U.S. Senate, Tennessee
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th
Tennessee elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

Bill Hagerty defeated 14 other candidates to win the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Tennessee on August 6, 2020. Hagerty received 51% of the vote to Manny Sethi's 39%. No other candidate received more than 5% of the vote. Incumbent Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), first elected in 2002, announced on December 17, 2018, that he would not seek re-election, leaving the seat open.[1] Two candidates—Hagerty and Manny Sethi—led in media attention, noteworthy primary endorsements, advertisement activity, and campaign spending.[2]

CNN's Alex Rogers and Manu Raju wrote that the primary "resembles the political battles of the past, with libertarian and tea party-aligned conservatives taking on party leaders and the GOP establishment."[3]

Hagerty received endorsements from Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and U.S. President Donald Trump (R), whose administration he previously served in as the U.S. Ambassador to Japan.[3] Sethi, an orthopedic surgeon, received endorsements from U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and former Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), founder of the Senate Conservatives Fund and, at the time of the election, former president of the Heritage Foundation.[3]

Both candidates aired campaign ads criticizing the other's previous political donations and questioning their conservatism.

Hagerty released an ad saying Sethi "refused to donate a dollar to Donald Trump's campaign against Hillary Clinton, but [he] did give money to liberal ActBlue helping Nancy Pelosi defeat Republicans," referring to a $50 donation made by Sethi to ActBlue in 2008.[4][5]

In a responding ad, Sethi's wife, Maya, said she made the donation at the request of a friend. She continued, saying, "Bill Hagerty's attacking me to hurt my husband, but Hagerty gave [Mitt] Romney and Al Gore over $100,000."[6] According to FEC reports, Hagerty donated $1,000 to Gore (D) in 2000 and $80,000 to Romney (R) between 2007 and 2012.[7][8] He served as the national finance chairman for Romney's 2008 presidential campaign.[9]

According to pre-primary campaign finance reports, Hagerty raised $12.3 million, the second-highest total among all non-incumbent Republicans in 2020 U.S. Senate primaries at the time. He reported $2.7 million cash on hand. Sethi raised $4.6 million with $386,000 on hand. Satellite spending totaled over $4 million primarily in the form of campaign ads. Standing With Conservatives spent $110,000 on ads supporting Hagerty and $1.2 million opposing Sethi. America One spent $375,000 opposing Sethi.[10] Conservative Outsider PAC and Protect Freedom PAC spent $1 million opposing Hagerty and $1.5 million supporting Sethi, respectively.[11]

Clifford Adkins, Natisha Brooks, Byron Bush, Roy Cope, Terry Dicus, Tom Emerson Jr., George Flinn Jr., Jon Henry, Kent Morrell, Glen Neal, John Osborne, Aaron Pettigrew, and David Schuster also ran in the primary.

Three race forecasters rated the general election as Safe/Solid Republican. In the three preceding senatorial elections, Republican general election candidates received at least 54% of the vote. Before 2020, the most recent time Tennessee had elected a Democratic U.S. Senator was 1990 when Al Gore (D) defeated William R. Hawkins (R).


Click on candidate names below to view their key messages:


Hagerty
Sethi


This page focuses on Tennessee's United States Senate Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the state's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Tennessee made no changes to its primary election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Bill Hagerty
Bill Hagerty
 
50.8
 
331,267
Image of Manny Sethi
Manny Sethi
 
39.4
 
257,223
Image of George Flinn Jr.
George Flinn Jr.
 
3.4
 
22,454
Image of Jon Henry
Jon Henry Candidate Connection
 
1.2
 
8,104
Image of Natisha Brooks
Natisha Brooks Candidate Connection
 
1.2
 
8,072
Image of Byron Bush
Byron Bush Candidate Connection
 
0.8
 
5,420
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Clifford Adkins
 
0.8
 
5,316
Image of Terry Dicus
Terry Dicus Candidate Connection
 
0.3
 
2,279
Image of Tom Emerson Jr.
Tom Emerson Jr.
 
0.3
 
2,252
Image of David Schuster
David Schuster Candidate Connection
 
0.3
 
2,045
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
John Osborne
 
0.3
 
1,877
Image of Roy Cope
Roy Cope
 
0.3
 
1,791
Image of Kent Morrell
Kent Morrell Candidate Connection
 
0.3
 
1,769
Image of Aaron Pettigrew
Aaron Pettigrew
 
0.2
 
1,622
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Glen Neal Candidate Connection
 
0.2
 
1,233

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 652,724
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[12] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Natisha Brooks

Image of Natisha Brooks

WebsiteFacebook

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "I am Natisha Brooks, "Our Miss Brooks", of Nashville, Tennessee. I am the Owner/Director of the The Brooks Academy, a home-school institution servicing learners from grade-school through collegiate studies. I am the mother of two children, Amber Lee and Miles Jr. I hail from Gimer, Texas located in Upshur County, home of the "Yam-boree" Festival. I received formal education from Prairie View A+M University. My self-description of my political stance is a Conservative Constitutionalist."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

I believe in better living and health benefits for Military Veterans

I support the funding of mental health services for Americans living in certain circumstances.

I believe that future college tuition ought be determined by the current annual cost-of-living.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Tennessee in 2020.

Byron Bush

Image of Byron Bush

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Conservative, married to Kelly since 1986, 2 sons, 1 granddaughter. Father was a Pastor and both parents were educators. Nashville dentist, graduatedfrom Meharry Medical in 1977. Undergraduate at Trevecca Nazarene University. Hobbies include flying airplane (instrument rated), scuba diving, singing, writing, basketball and travel."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

IT MATTERS! What you believe, your source of truth and who represents TN in Washington

Judicial Reform-calling for transparency & accountability of judges and those who have sworn to uphold the rule of law

Promote conservative policies that lead to opportunity, not dependence on the government

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Tennessee in 2020.

Terry Dicus

Image of Terry Dicus

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "My father told me when I was a child I had better get a scholarship or he would get me job with him on the boat. I got two scholarships. I worked at the Peabody Hotel and Federal Express after college until I got my first law enforcement job with the Jackson Police Department. There I became a crime scene technician and field training officer while obtaining my Masters of Business Administration from Union University. I moved home and worked as an investigator with the Hardin County Sheriff's Department and attending the Nashville School of Law at night. I became a special agent/criminal investigator with the TBI in 2006 and handled official misconduct, murder and other serious crimes. I stayed on with the TBI after being inducted into the Cooper Hall of Fame at may law school and passing the bar. In 2013, I left the TBI hoping to make more money practicing law. I am more successful than I ever dreamed possible, but that is only because I have studied the proof of God and it is insurmountable. I am doing this for Him."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

We must teach the growing scientific dissent to the theory that everything came from nothing.

It is time to use our power and influence to end war and end religious persecution everywhere.

Like one of my heroes, Frederick Douglas, I will work with anyone to do good, but no-one to do harm.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Tennessee in 2020.

Bill Hagerty

Image of Bill Hagerty

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

  • U.S. Ambassador to Japan (2017-2019)
  • Tenn. Commissioner of Economic Development (2011-2015)

Biography:  Hagerty received a bachelor's degree in economics from Vanderbilt University in 1981 and a J.D. from Vanderbilt Law School in 1984. He co-founded a private equity investment firm in 1997 and worked in director positions at several finance firms. Hagerty also volunteered in executive positions with the Boy Scouts of America between 1997 and 2017.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

"Hagerty will stand with President Trump to enforce the rule of law, support our brave police officers, and restore order so Americans can get back to work. That's why President Trump and 22 Tennessee sheriffs endorsed Bill Hagerty, saying he is the right choice for Senate."

A Hagerty campaign ad said, "Sethi served on the board of trustees of the Massachusetts Medical Society, an organization that supported Obamacare. ... Massachusetts Manny is a liberal elitist. He doesn't share our Tennessee values."

Show sources

Sources: YouTube, "The Right CHoice," July 2, 2020, YouTube, "Massachusetts Manny," July 17, 2020; LinkedIn, "Bill Hagerty," accessed July 28, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Tennessee in 2020.

Jon Henry

Image of Jon Henry

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "My name is Jon Henry and I am a strong conservative running for US Senate for the state of Tennessee. I was raised in the small farming community of Riddleton, Tennessee. We learned hard work on the farm. I am proud of my upbringing and it was to my advantage when I joined the Marine Corps at 19 years old. I served in the Marine Corps for 27 years. During my years as an enlisted Marine, I was an adult learner taking college classes at night and on weekends. I earned an Associates, Bachelors, and two Graduate degrees.I am running for Senate because I believe I bring a wealth of knowledge to the US Senate based on my common sense upbringing, military experience, worldwide service and tireless work ethic. I feel I represent a true Tennessean who loves and has served his country and will bring honor if I am able to represent Tennessee as a US Senator. I look forward to the chance to meet you and hear your concerns and serve you with spirituality, courage and integrity.Tennessee needs a veteran in the US Senate.
"

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

My top priority is the safety and security of the American people. A US Senator must always be vigilant ensuring policies support that safety. Americans must be protected at all costs from enemies both foreign and domestic.

Our freedoms should not be compromised; right to defend oneself, freedom of speech, and freedom of religion are but a few rights the government should always protect.

The government is not a revenue producing entity and therefore every tax dollar taken from Americans' pay in order to operate the US government must be managed in a responsible, thoughtful manner by mature leaders who make policy.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Tennessee in 2020.

Kent Morrell

Image of Kent Morrell

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "Please visit https://www.kentmorrell2020.com and https://www.kentmorrell.com for more information."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

Restore treatment options for patients

Remove the government from the doctor patient relationship

Reform out of control government agencies and return to common sense policies

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Tennessee in 2020.

Glen Neal

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png Do you have a photo that could go here? Click here to submit it for this profile!

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "My fellow Tennesseans, "we the people" need to immediately take the necessary actions to set the tone and define the issues that will dominate the 2020 Tennessee Senate race. I will be fighting to implement policies to continue reinvigorating the economy, strengthening our national security and protecting our freedom. Together we must stand up for our conservative principles and agenda. The 2020 Senate campaign has just begun, but I think everyone can agree that it will go down in history as a critical turning point where our nation will either embrace entrepreneurial capitalism, Constitutional freedom and limited, accountable government championed by fellow Republicans. Otherwise, our America will be seduced by liberals promises to bring European style socialism to our nation with "FREE" everything, high taxes, government control of the economy through regulations and mandates, politically correct limits on our freedoms and liberties. The stakes are incredibly high in 2020 and must not be ignored."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

We must secure our borders and change immigration law to remain a sovereign nation.

Health Care reform that includes the keeping of private coverage, coverage of pre-existing conditions.

Term limits for Congress and campaign finance reform for all.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Tennessee in 2020.

David Schuster

Image of David Schuster

Twitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "I was born in 1958. In Leominster MA. I am 61 yrs young. I graduated from Lunenburg High in 1977. Joined the Navy in 1982 . Served 11 yr as a Naval Aviation Storekeeper, got out in Dec 92, due to pain. I am a Disabled Vet, Took me form 1995 to 2013 to get my disability from the VA, no back pay. I was a Small Business Owner/Operator of D&D Crane/Jax, FL , from 97 - 07, After closing the business we moved here to Maryville TN. I am an out going, kind, friendly and loyal person. I am a reasonable independent thinker with a lot of common sense. I look at all aspects before I decide the best path. I have been told many times by people when I applied for jobs that I come across as having above average intelligence. Like most I have gone through life's ups and downs and my views of life and the government, match a lot of other Tennessean's views. I had a helicopter crush me to the flight deck, when hooking nets to its belly during Vert-Rep in the navy in 1986. I was struck by lightning in 1996. I am here to do something good and have been very interested in politics for a long time. I feel its my calling. So Vote David Schuster. Thank You."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

I want to fight for you, the people of TN. Not the lobbyist or to get rich like the corrupt ones there now.

I want to get term limits and a line item veto for the president to stop some of the bribery for votes. End the patriot act was only supposed to be in effect for 5 yrs. I want to get your freedoms back.

I feel there is going to be a lot of technical and financial changes and want it to be done right for the people.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Tennessee in 2020.

Manny Sethi

Image of Manny Sethi

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Sethi received a bachelor's degree in neuroscience from Brown University and an M.D. from Harvard Medical School. He founded Healthy Tennessee, a nonprofit focused on preventative care, in 2012. At the time of the election, Sethi was an orthopaedic trauma surgeon.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

"The American Dream I have lived is in great peril and I want to fight and keep it alive. For too long career politicians in Washington have said one thing and done the other while people in ... the rest of Tennessee pay the price for a government that is out of touch with its own citizens ... I believe President Trump needs a trauma surgeon in the Senate who can act decisively for his patient, the people of Tennessee."

"Why is the establishment attacking a nice guy like me? ... Folks are finding out Bill Hagerty is endorsed by Mitt Romney, donated to Al Gore, made millions off Common Core, tried to get Tennessee to do trade deals with China."

Show sources

Sources: YouTube, "Romney, Gore, and Common Core," July 16, 2020, Sethi's 2020 campaign website, "Why I'm Running," accessed July 29, 2020; Sethi's 2020 campaign website, "About Dr. Manny," accessed July 28, 2020, LinkedIn, "Dr. Manny Sethi," accessed July 28, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate Tennessee in 2020.


Noteworthy primary endorsements

This section includes noteworthy endorsements issued in the primary, added as we learn about them. Click here to read how we define noteworthy primary endorsements. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.

Republican primary endorsements
Endorsement Hagerty Sethi
Newspapers and editorials
Chattanooga Times Free Press[13] ✔
Elected officials
President Donald Trump (R)[14] ✔
Vice President Mike Pence (R)[15] ✔
U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.)[16] ✔
U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)[17] ✔
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)[18] ✔
U.S. Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)[19] ✔
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)[20] ✔
U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.)[21] ✔
Individuals
Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway (R)[16] ✔
Tenn. GOP Executive Committee member Rebecca Griffey (R)[22] ✔
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley (R)[23] ✔
Commentator Sean Hannity[16] ✔
Tenn. GOP Executive Committee member Larry Hillis (R)[24] ✔
Commentator Mark Levin[25] ✔
Donald Trump, Jr. (R)[16] ✔
Organizations
Family Research Council Action[26] ✔
Gun Owners of America[27] ✔
Protect Freedom PAC[28] ✔
Susan B. Anthony List[29] ✔
U.S. Chamber of Commerce[19] ✔

Timeline

2020

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Byron Bush

"Riots of 2020" - Bush campaign ad, released July 9, 2020
"Fighting for Our Children" - Bush campaign ad, released January 31, 2020
"Material Facts Matter" - Bush campaign ad, released January 8, 2020
"Isn't Worth the Paper" - Bush campaign ad, released January 8, 2020
"Fighting Corrupt Judges in Tennessee" - Bush campaign ad, released November 6, 2019
"Stop Corruption, Fight for Tennessee" - Bush campaign ad, released November 4, 2019


Roy Cope

"Auto Workers Fear Not" - Cope campaign ad, released May 23, 2020
"A Man on A Mission" - Cope campaign ad, released May 23, 2020


George Flinn Jr.

"We're All Worried" - Flinn campaign ad, released July 21, 2020
"Republicans, You Have a Choice" - Flinn campaign ad, released July 14, 2020
"I'm Sick of False Promises" - Flinn campaign ad, released July 6, 2020
"We Must End China's Control" - Flinn campaign ad, released July 1, 2020
"Solutions to Build Our Economy and Create Jobs" - Flinn campaign ad, released June 9, 2020
"Real Solutions for Tennessee" - Flinn campaign ad, released March 3, 2020


Bill Hagerty

Supporting Hagerty

"What Makes America Exceptional" - Hagerty campaign ad, released July 21, 2020
"Patriot" - Hagerty campaign ad, released July 16, 2020
"This Madness Must Stop" - Hagerty campaign ad, released July 16, 2020
"Can-Do Businessman" - Hagerty campaign ad, released June 12, 2020
"The Trump Conservative" - Hagerty campaign ad, released July 2, 2020
"Made in the USA" - Hagerty campaign ad, released June 24, 2020
"The Right Choice" - Hagerty campaign ad, released July 2, 2020
"100 Percent" - Hagerty campaign ad, released March 7, 2020
"Trump Train" - Hagerty campaign ad, released March 7, 2020
"With Us" - Hagerty campaign ad, released February 3, 2020
"Enough Is Enough" - Hagerty campaign ad, released January 27, 2020
"Build the Wall & Ban Sanctuary Cities" - Hagerty campaign ad, released October 17, 2019
"Stand with Trump Against The Squad and Their Calls for Impeachment" - Hagerty campaign ad, released September 24, 2019
"Defend The 2nd Amendment" - Hagerty campaign ad, released September 19, 2019
"Tennessee Roots. Tennessee Values. Tennessee Proud" - Hagerty campaign ad, released September 9, 2019

Opposing Sethi

"Propaganda" - Hagerty campaign ad, released July 30, 2020[30]
"Family Friend" - Hagerty campaign ad, released July 23, 2020
"Can't Trust Sethi" - Hagerty campaign ad, released July 20, 2020
"Massachusetts Manny" - Hagerty campaign ad, released July 17, 2020[4]

Manny Sethi

Supporting Sethi

"Everything" - Sethi campaign ad, released July 26, 2020[32]
"Truth" - Sethi campaign ad, released July 23, 2020
"Babies" - Sethi campaign ad, released July 8, 2020
"Mobs" - Sethi campaign ad, released June 25, 2020
"Leftwing Lockdown" - Sethi campaign ad, released June 10, 2020
"Together" - Sethi campaign ad, released April 3, 2020
"Mom" - Sethi campaign ad, released February 3, 2020
"Faith" - Sethi campaign ad, released January 18, 2020

Opposing Hagerty

"Maya" - Sethi campaign ad, released July 25, 2020[6]
"Romney, Gore, and Common Core" - Sethi campaign ad, released July 16, 2020
"Loan" - Sethi campaign ad, released April 29, 2020

Satellite group ads

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[33] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[34] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Clifford Adkins Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Natisha Brooks Republican Party $4,767 $4,323 $481 As of October 16, 2020
Byron Bush Republican Party $441,099 $404,309 $36,790 As of December 31, 2020
Roy Cope Republican Party $12,408 $12,508 $0 As of October 14, 2020
Terry Dicus Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Tom Emerson Jr. Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
George Flinn Jr. Republican Party $4,958,987 $4,956,798 $2,190 As of December 31, 2020
Bill Hagerty Republican Party $15,772,577 $15,717,519 $55,059 As of December 31, 2020
Jon Henry Republican Party $10,179 $5,728 $4,451 As of July 17, 2020
Kent Morrell Republican Party $2,340 $2,340 $0 As of September 30, 2020
Glen Neal Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
John Osborne Republican Party $101,489 $101,489 $0 As of August 25, 2020
Aaron Pettigrew Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
David Schuster Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Manny Sethi Republican Party $5,940,864 $5,940,168 $696 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[35][36][37]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

The data below comes from 24- and 48-hour independent expenditure reports from the Federal Election Commission as of August 5, 2020:[11]

  • America One spent $300,000 on media production and placement of a campaign ad opposing Sethi.[10] The group spent $75,000 opposing Sethi on July 31.
  • Conservative Outsider PAC spent $1,003,000 on emails and ads opposing Hagerty.
  • The New American Populist PAC made two expenditures of $3,805 on webcasts, one supporting Sethi and the other opposing Hagerty on July 27.
  • Protect Freedom PAC spent $1 million on ads supporting Sethi. Between July 28 and 29, the group spent $485,000 supporting Sethi.
  • Standing With Conservatives spent $1,218,454 on ads opposing Sethi and $107,661 on ads supporting Hagerty. According to Open Secrets, "This committee is a single-candidate super PAC opposing Manny Sethi (R)."[38] The group was formed on July 3, 2020.[39]

Primaries in Tennessee

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Tennessee utilizes a closed primary process; a voter must either be registered with a political party or must declare his or affiliation with the party at the polls on primary election day in order to vote in that party's primary.[40]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

What's at stake in the general election?

U.S. Senate elections were held on November 3, 2020, and coincide with the 2020 presidential election. Thirty-three of the Senate's 100 seats were up for regular election in November. There were also two special elections in 2020. The results determined control of the U.S. Senate in the 117th Congress.

At the time of the election, the Republican Party had a 53-seat Senate majority, while Democrats had 45 seats. There were also two independents who caucus with the Democratic Party. Republicans faced greater partisan risk than Democrats in 2020 because they were defending 23 seats compared to 12 for the Democrats. Both parties had two incumbents representing states the opposite party's presidential nominee won in 2016.

In 2018, Democrats and Democratic-caucusing independents defended 26 of the 35 seats up for election, while Republicans defended the other nine. Republicans won 11 seats to the Democrats' 24, for a GOP net gain of two.

In the 24 previous Senate elections that coincided with a presidential election, the president's party had gained Senate seats in 16 elections and lost seats in nine. In years where the president's party gained seats, the average gain was three seats. In years where the president's party lost seats, the average loss was five seats. Click here for more information on presidential partisanship and down-ballot outcomes.


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[41]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[42][43][44]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Tennessee, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[45][46]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 22 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 79 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 77 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 43.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


Election history

2018

See also: United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Tennessee

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. Senate Tennessee on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Marsha Blackburn
Marsha Blackburn (R)
 
54.7
 
1,227,483
Image of Phil Bredesen
Phil Bredesen (D)
 
43.9
 
985,450
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
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Trudy Austin (Independent)
 
0.4
 
9,455
Image of Dean Hill
Dean Hill (Independent)
 
0.4
 
8,717
Image of Kris Todd
Kris Todd (Independent)
 
0.2
 
5,084
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
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John Carico (Independent)
 
0.2
 
3,398
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
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Breton Phillips (Independent)
 
0.1
 
2,226
Image of Kevin Lee McCants
Kevin Lee McCants (Independent)
 
0.1
 
1,927

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 2,243,740
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee

Phil Bredesen defeated Gary Davis and John Wolfe in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Phil Bredesen
Phil Bredesen
 
91.5
 
349,718
Image of Gary Davis
Gary Davis Candidate Connection
 
5.3
 
20,170
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
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John Wolfe
 
3.2
 
12,269

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 382,157
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee

Marsha Blackburn defeated Aaron Pettigrew in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Tennessee on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Marsha Blackburn
Marsha Blackburn
 
84.5
 
613,513
Image of Aaron Pettigrew
Aaron Pettigrew
 
15.5
 
112,705

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 726,218
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2014

U.S. Senate, Tennessee General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLamar Alexander Incumbent 61.9% 850,087
     Democratic Gordon Ball 31.9% 437,848
     Independent Ed Gauthier 0.2% 2,314
     Independent Bartholomew Phillips 0.2% 2,386
     Independent C. Salekin 0.1% 787
     Independent Danny Page 0.6% 7,713
     Independent Eric Schechter 0.1% 1,673
     Constitution Joe Wilmoth 2.6% 36,088
     Independent Joshua James 0.4% 5,678
     Independent Rick Tyler 0.4% 5,759
     Tea Party Tom Emerson, Jr. 0.8% 11,157
     Green Martin Pleasant 0.9% 12,570
     Write-in Erin Kent Magee 0% 5
Total Votes 1,374,065
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics"

2012

U.S. Senate, Tennessee General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngBob Corker Incumbent 64.9% 1,506,443
     Democratic Mark E. Clayton 30.4% 705,882
     Constitution Kermit Steck 0.8% 18,620
     Green Martin Pleasant 1.7% 38,472
     Libertarian Shaun E. Crowell 0.9% 20,936
     Independent David Gatchell 0.3% 6,523
     Independent Michael Joseph Long 0.3% 8,085
     Independent Troy Stephen Scoggin 0.3% 8,080
Total Votes 2,320,189
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

State profile

See also: Tennessee and Tennessee elections, 2020
USA Tennessee location map.svg

Partisan data

The information in this section was current as of July 27, 2020.

Presidential voting pattern

  • Tennessee voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • Republicans held five of Tennessee's 18 state executive offices. Elections for the other offices are nonpartisan.
  • Tennessee's governor was Republican Bill Lee.

State legislature

Tennessee Party Control: 1992-2024
Five years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D R D D D D D D D D R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Tennessee quick stats
More Tennessee coverage on Ballotpedia:


Demographic data for Tennessee
 TennesseeU.S.
Total population:6,595,056316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):41,2353,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:77.8%73.6%
Black/African American:16.8%12.6%
Asian:1.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:4.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.5%86.7%
College graduation rate:24.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$45,219$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Tennessee.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ CNBC, "GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander will not run for re-election in 2020," December 17, 2018
  2. ↑ The Tennesseean, "Tennessee Senate Republican Primary Results," accessed August 6, 2020
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 CNN, "US Senate primary in Tennessee pits Trump's candidate against conservative insurgency," July 27, 2020
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 YouTube, "Massachusetts Manny," July 17, 2020
  5. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Page by Page Report Display (Page 5090 of 10660)," accessed July 29, 2020
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 YouTube, "Maya," July 25, 2020
  7. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Page by Page Report Display (Page 363 of 1806)," accessed July 29, 2020
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Individual contributions," accessed July 29, 2020
  9. ↑ The Tennessean, "ECD Commissioner Bill Hagerty to leave Haslam administration," November 12, 2014
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Twitter, "CATargetBot," July 29, 2020
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 Federal Election Commission, "Independent expenditures," accessed July 27, 2020
  12. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  13. ↑ Facebook, "Dr. Manny Sethi for Senate," July 19, 2020
  14. ↑ The Tennessean, "Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty launches U.S. Senate bid," September 9, 2019
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 News Channel 5 Nashville, "Vice President Pence endorses Bill Hagerty for U.S. Senate," July 27, 2020
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 Hagerty's 2020 campaign website, "Press Releases," accessed July 27, 2020
  17. ↑ Twitter, "Bill Hagerty," June 11, 2020
  18. ↑ Chattanooga Times Free Pres, "Sen. Cruz backs Sethi in Tennessee GOP U.S. Senate primary while Sen. Blackburn endorses Hagerty," July 22, 2020
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Nashville Post, "Hagerty nabs endorsements in Senate race," June 22, 2020
  20. ↑ Twitter, "Dr. Manny For Senate," June 6, 2020
  21. ↑ Twitter, "Bill Hagerty," June 27, 2020
  22. ↑ The Tennessee Journal, "Sethi names 174 ‘grassroots supporters’ for Senate bid," October 3, 2019
  23. ↑ Twitter, "Bill Hagerty," February 18, 2020
  24. ↑ Dickinson Post, "Hillis endorses Sethi for Senate," June 26, 2020
  25. ↑ The Tennessee Star, "Mark Levin Endorses Manny Sethi for U.S. Senate," July 19, 2020
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 Facebook, "Dr. Manny Sethi for Senate," July 31, 2020
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 Facebook, "Dr. Manny Sethi for Senate," July 29, 2020
  28. ↑ Protect Freedom PAC website, "Protect Freedom PAC Endorses Dr. Manny Sethi for US Senate in Tennessee," June 9, 2020
  29. ↑ Twitter, "Bill Hagerty," June 3, 2020
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 YouTube, "Propaganda," July 30, 2020
  31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 Twitter, "Jacob Rubashkin," July 29, 2020
  32. ↑ 32.0 32.1 YouTube, "Everything," July 26, 2020
  33. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  34. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  35. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  36. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  37. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  38. ↑ Open Secrets, "Standing With Conservatives," accessed July 27, 2020
  39. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Statement of Organization," accessed July 27, 2020
  40. ↑ LexisNexis, "Tenn. Code Ann. § 2-7-115," accessed July 16, 2025
  41. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  42. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  43. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  44. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  45. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  46. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Tennessee's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Bill Hagerty (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
John Rose (R)
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (1)
Vacancies (1)


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