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Vermont House of Representatives elections, 2016
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2018 →
← 2014
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| 2016 Vermont House Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 9, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
| 2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 | |
| 2016 Elections | |
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| Choose a chamber below: | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
All 150 seats in the Vermont House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. Progressives and independents each gained one seat in the November 2016 general election.
Introduction
Elections for the Vermont House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 9, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was May 26, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Vermont House of Representatives:
| Vermont House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 85 | 83 | |
| Republican Party | 53 | 53 | |
| Vermont Progressive Party | 6 | 7 | |
| Independent | 6 | 7 | |
| Total | 150 | 150 | |
Incumbents retiring
The following incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Betty Nuovo |  Democratic |
Addison-1 |
| Patti Komline |  Republican |
Bennington-Rutland-1 |
| Anne O'Brien | Democratic |
Chittenden-1 |
| William Frank | Democratic |
Chittenden-3 |
| Joan Lenes | Democratic |
Chittenden-5-2 |
| Kesha Ram Hinsdale | Democratic |
Chittenden-6-4 |
| Debbie Evans | Democratic |
Chittenden-8-1 |
| Tim Jerman | Democratic |
Chittenden-8-2 |
| Carolyn Whitney Branagan | Republican |
Franklin-1 |
| Bob Krebs | Democratic |
Grand Isle-Chittenden |
| Linda Martin | Democratic |
Lamoille-2 |
| Mark Woodward | Democratic |
Lamoille-2 |
| Shap Smith | Democratic |
Lamoille-Washington |
| Marjorie Ryerson | Democratic |
Orange-Washington-Addison |
| Loren Shaw | Republican |
Orleans-1 |
| Herb Russell | Democratic |
Rutland-5-3 |
| Tony Klein | Democratic |
Washington-5 |
| Ann Manwaring | Democratic |
Windham-6 |
| Donna Sweaney | Democratic |
Windsor-1 |
| Mark Huntley | Democratic |
Windsor-2 |
| Leigh Dakin | Democratic |
Windsor-3-1 |
| Teo Zagar | Democratic |
Windsor-4-1 |
| Alison Clarkson | Democratic |
Windsor-5 |
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Vermont elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Vermont in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| March 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| May 26, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for major party candidates; deadline for minor parties to submit nomination forms for their candidates | |
| July 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| August 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for independent candidates | |
| August 9, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| August 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| September 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| October 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| October 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| November 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| November 22, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| December 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due | |
| Sources: Vermont Secretary of State, "Candidates," accessed July 9, 2015 Vermont Secretary of State, "Guide to Vermont's Campaign Finance Law," accessed July 9, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 82 (54.7%) of the 150 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 56 Democrats and 24 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 70 (46.7%) of the 150 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Fifteen incumbents faced primary competition on August 9.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Vermont's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Vermont Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 14.4% | 4.6% | 33.9% | 17.6 | 44 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Vermont in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[2]
| Vermont House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 245 | $757,095 |
| 2012 | 225 | $622,980 |
| 2010 | 266 | $616,868 |
| 2008 | 278 | $807,320 |
| 2006 | 263 | $862,333 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Vermont, at $3,090 per candidate, is ranked 44 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[2][3]
Qualifications
The Vermont Constitution states, "No person shall be elected a Representative or a Senator until the person has resided in this State two years, the last year of which shall be in the legislative district for which the person is elected."[4]
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Incumbent Sarah Buxton (D) was initially reported to have defeated David Ainsworth (R) in the general election. However, a recount found that Ainsworth had won by two votes.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Vermont," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ The Vermont Constitution, "Section 18," accessed August 9, 2014
