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Washington's 10th Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Nov. 3 (in person); Oct. 26 (online; by mail)
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Oct. 16[1]
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: No ID
- Poll times: Varies locally[1]
2022 →
← 2018
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| Washington's 10th Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Top-two primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: May 15, 2020 |
| Primary: August 4, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Denny Heck (Democrat) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: Poll opening hours vary; close at 8 p.m. (most voting done by mail) Voting in Washington |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th Washington elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 10th Congressional District of Washington, held elections in 2020.
Marilyn Strickland won election in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 10.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Denny Heck, who was first elected in 2012. Heck ran for lieutenant governor, leaving the seat open.
Marilyn Strickland (D) and Beth Doglio (D) advanced from the top-two primary on August 4, 2020. Strickland received 20% of the vote and Doglio received 15%. Nineteen candidates ran.
Washington's 10th Congressional District is located in the west central portion of the state and includes portions of Thurston, Pierce, and Mason counties.[2]
For information on the top-two primary, click here.
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| Presidential and congressional election results, Washington's 10th Congressional District, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Presidential | U.S. House |
Democratic candidate  |
56.2 | 84.9 |
Republican candidate  |
40.7 | 0 |
| Difference | 15.5 | 84.9 |
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Washington did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Washington District 10
Marilyn Strickland defeated Beth Doglio in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 10 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Marilyn Strickland (D)  | 49.3 | 167,937 |
 | Beth Doglio (D) | 35.6 | 121,040 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 15.1 | 51,430 | ||
| Total votes: 340,407 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Washington District 10
The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House Washington District 10 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Marilyn Strickland (D) | 20.3 | 45,988 |
| ✔ | | Beth Doglio (D) | 15.2 | 34,254 |
 | Kristine Reeves (D) | 12.9 | 29,236 | |
 | Rian Ingrim (R) | 11.4 | 25,688 | |
 | Jackson Maynard (R) | 8.2 | 18,526 | |
 | Dean Johnson (R) | 7.4 | 16,700 | |
 | Nancy Slotnick (R) | 6.7 | 15,201 | |
 | Don Hewett (R) | 4.8 | 10,750 | |
 | Phil Gardner (D) | 2.3 | 5,292 | |
 | Ryan Tate (R) | 1.9 | 4,196 | |
 | Mary Bacon (D) | 1.8 | 3,992 | |
 | Todd Buckley (Independent) | 1.6 | 3,552 | |
 | Eric LeMay (D) | 1.4 | 3,072 | |
 | Joshua Collins (Essential Workers Party) | 1.2 | 2,667 | |
 | Richard Boyce (Congress Sucks Party) | 1.0 | 2,302 | |
| Ralph Johnson (R) | 0.6 | 1,441 | ||
| Gordon Allen Pross (R) | 0.5 | 1,186 | ||
| Sam Wright (D) | 0.5 | 1,129 | ||
| Randy Bell (D) | 0.2 | 563 | ||
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.1 | 267 | ||
| Total votes: 226,002 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Watch the Candidate Conversation for this race!
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Dan Gordon (R)
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Five of 39 Washington counties—12.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Clallam County, Washington | 2.76% | 0.38% | 3.30% | ||||
| Cowlitz County, Washington | 13.32% | 4.44% | 11.15% | ||||
| Grays Harbor County, Washington | 6.99% | 14.11% | 14.56% | ||||
| Mason County, Washington | 5.81% | 7.09% | 8.66% | ||||
| Pacific County, Washington | 6.74% | 11.52% | 14.07% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Washington with 52.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Washington cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Washington supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state favored Democrats in every election between 2000 and 2016.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Washington. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 25.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 30 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 32.1 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 15 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | |
| 1 | 59.66% | 37.93% | D+21.7 | 61.73% | 30.36% | D+31.4 | |
| 2 | 47.71% | 49.88% | R+2.2 | 37.79% | 53.05% | R+15.3 | |
| 3 | 57.66% | 38.63% | D+19 | 51.82% | 38.12% | D+13.7 | |
| 4 | 40.00% | 57.37% | R+17.4 | 34.91% | 56.36% | R+21.4 | |
| 5 | 53.41% | 44.29% | D+9.1 | 54.74% | 37.12% | D+17.6 | |
| 6 | 46.76% | 50.72% | R+4 | 44.72% | 46.75% | R+2 | |
| 7 | 36.16% | 61.01% | R+24.9 | 29.00% | 63.45% | R+34.5 | |
| 8 | 36.10% | 61.49% | R+25.4 | 34.54% | 57.03% | R+22.5 | |
| 9 | 37.70% | 59.71% | R+22 | 35.13% | 56.40% | R+21.3 | |
| 10 | 50.21% | 47.38% | D+2.8 | 46.94% | 45.07% | D+1.9 | |
| 11 | 67.51% | 30.27% | D+37.2 | 67.74% | 25.40% | D+42.3 | |
| 12 | 39.91% | 57.67% | R+17.8 | 37.34% | 55.97% | R+18.6 | |
| 13 | 35.70% | 61.75% | R+26 | 31.04% | 61.91% | R+30.9 | |
| 14 | 42.63% | 54.97% | R+12.3 | 38.98% | 54.23% | R+15.2 | |
| 15 | 45.75% | 52.31% | R+6.6 | 42.51% | 51.74% | R+9.2 | |
| 16 | 38.20% | 59.21% | R+21 | 36.00% | 56.67% | R+20.7 | |
| 17 | 48.28% | 49.36% | R+1.1 | 45.51% | 46.88% | R+1.4 | |
| 18 | 43.85% | 54.12% | R+10.3 | 42.36% | 50.56% | R+8.2 | |
| 19 | 53.59% | 43.66% | D+9.9 | 41.57% | 50.52% | R+8.9 | |
| 20 | 40.98% | 56.26% | R+15.3 | 30.96% | 61.41% | R+30.4 | |
| 21 | 61.52% | 36.25% | D+25.3 | 62.27% | 30.19% | D+32.1 | |
| 22 | 63.17% | 33.68% | D+29.5 | 60.67% | 30.15% | D+30.5 | |
| 23 | 57.91% | 39.72% | D+18.2 | 56.69% | 34.37% | D+22.3 | |
| 24 | 54.21% | 42.81% | D+11.4 | 48.95% | 43.35% | D+5.6 | |
| 25 | 50.87% | 46.92% | D+4 | 45.23% | 46.56% | R+1.3 | |
| 26 | 49.33% | 48.06% | D+1.3 | 45.36% | 45.35% | D+0 | |
| 27 | 67.29% | 30.00% | D+37.3 | 65.15% | 26.43% | D+38.7 | |
| 28 | 54.44% | 43.37% | D+11.1 | 52.61% | 38.96% | D+13.7 | |
| 29 | 62.55% | 34.97% | D+27.6 | 54.47% | 36.76% | D+17.7 | |
| 30 | 58.70% | 39.18% | D+19.5 | 56.77% | 35.96% | D+20.8 | |
| 31 | 47.88% | 49.93% | R+2.1 | 41.61% | 50.16% | R+8.5 | |
| 32 | 70.64% | 26.92% | D+43.7 | 71.67% | 21.56% | D+50.1 | |
| 33 | 65.65% | 32.25% | D+33.4 | 64.85% | 28.57% | D+36.3 | |
| 34 | 77.41% | 20.25% | D+57.2 | 79.30% | 14.85% | D+64.4 | |
| 35 | 51.47% | 45.95% | D+5.5 | 44.25% | 46.59% | R+2.3 | |
| 36 | 81.82% | 15.34% | D+66.5 | 85.25% | 9.15% | D+76.1 | |
| 37 | 86.30% | 11.18% | D+75.1 | 87.06% | 8.13% | D+78.9 | |
| 38 | 59.99% | 37.08% | D+22.9 | 53.38% | 37.81% | D+15.6 | |
| 39 | 49.44% | 47.52% | D+1.9 | 40.00% | 50.75% | R+10.7 | |
| 40 | 62.09% | 34.70% | D+27.4 | 62.61% | 29.29% | D+33.3 | |
| 41 | 60.00% | 38.22% | D+21.8 | 67.76% | 26.09% | D+41.7 | |
| 42 | 49.67% | 47.37% | D+2.3 | 47.57% | 44.43% | D+3.1 | |
| 43 | 85.99% | 10.63% | D+75.4 | 88.74% | 5.96% | D+82.8 | |
| 44 | 54.08% | 43.61% | D+10.5 | 50.96% | 40.24% | D+10.7 | |
| 45 | 58.18% | 39.63% | D+18.6 | 64.80% | 28.03% | D+36.8 | |
| 46 | 78.25% | 19.15% | D+59.1 | 81.92% | 12.42% | D+69.5 | |
| 47 | 55.53% | 42.30% | D+13.2 | 54.37% | 38.29% | D+16.1 | |
| 48 | 61.67% | 35.86% | D+25.8 | 68.17% | 25.02% | D+43.2 | |
| 49 | 57.30% | 40.04% | D+17.3 | 54.21% | 37.87% | D+16.3 | |
| Total | 56.16% | 41.29% | D+14.9 | 54.30% | 38.07% | D+16.2 | |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Washington's 10th Congressional District the 167th most Democratic nationally.[5]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[6]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beth Doglio | Democratic Party | $1,483,736 | $1,483,736 | $0 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Marilyn Strickland | Democratic Party | $1,834,688 | $1,802,662 | $32,026 | As of December 31, 2020 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]
| Race ratings: Washington's 10th Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Candidate ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for 10th Congressional District candidates in Washington in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Washington, click here.
| Filing requirements, 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| Washington | 10th Congressional District | All candidates | N/A | N/A | $1,740.00 | 1% of annual salary | 5/15/2020 | Source |
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Washington District 10
Incumbent Denny Heck defeated Joseph Brumbles in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 10 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Denny Heck (D) | 61.5 | 166,215 |
 | Joseph Brumbles (R) | 38.5 | 103,860 | |
| Total votes: 270,075 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Washington District 10
Incumbent Denny Heck and Joseph Brumbles defeated Tamborine Borrelli and Nancy Slotnick in the primary for U.S. House Washington District 10 on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Denny Heck (D) | 58.2 | 82,552 |
| ✔ | | Joseph Brumbles (R) | 31.9 | 45,270 |
 | Tamborine Borrelli (Independent) | 5.6 | 7,997 | |
| Nancy Slotnick (Independent) | 4.3 | 6,127 | |
| Total votes: 141,946 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Adam Harrsion (Independent)
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Denny Heck (D) defeated Jim Postma (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Heck and Postma defeated Jennifer Ferguson (D) and Richard Boyce (I) in the top-two primary on August 2, 2016.[11][12]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |  Denny Heck Incumbent |
58.7% | 170,460 | |
| Republican | Jim Postma | 41.3% | 120,104 | |
| Total Votes | 290,564 | |||
| Source: Washington Secretary of State | ||||
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
Denny Heck Incumbent |
46.5% | 58,865 | |
| Republican | Jim Postma |
36.7% | 46,473 | |
| Democratic | Jennifer Ferguson | 13.2% | 16,750 | |
| Independent | Richard Boyce | 3.5% | 4,411 | |
| Total Votes | 126,499 | |||
| Source: Washington Secretary of State |
||||
2014
The 10th Congressional District of Washington held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Denny Heck (D) defeated Joyce McDonald (R) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Denny Heck Incumbent |
54.7% | 99,279 | |
| Republican | Joyce McDonald | 45.3% | 82,213 | |
| Total Votes | 181,492 | |||
| Source: Washington Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Washington, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Washington is a vote-by-mail state. Early voting dates and polling hours apply to county-level vote centers where individuals can instead vote in person.
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "Unofficial List of Candidates in Ballot Order," accessed May 23, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Washington House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
