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Washington's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

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Washington's 3rd Congressional District
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Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 15, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Jaime Herrera Beutler (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Poll opening hours vary; close at 8 p.m. (most voting done by mail)
Voting in Washington
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Washington's 3rd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th
Washington elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Washington, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler won election in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 3.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
May 15, 2020
August 4, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler, who was first elected in 2010. The race was one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018.


As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Washington's 3rd Congressional District was located in the southwestern portion of the state and included Clark, Cowlitz, Klickitat, Lewis, Pacific, Skamania, and Wahkiakum counties and a portion of Thurston County.[2]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Washington's 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 46.9 43.4
Republican candidate Republican Party 50.6 56.4
Difference 3.7 13

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Washington did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Washington District 3

Incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler defeated Carolyn Long in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jaime Herrera Beutler
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
 
56.4
 
235,579
Image of Carolyn Long
Carolyn Long (D) Candidate Connection
 
43.4
 
181,347
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
977

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 417,903
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Washington District 3

Incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler and Carolyn Long defeated Martin Hash, Davy Ray, and Devin Gray in the primary for U.S. House Washington District 3 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jaime Herrera Beutler
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
 
56.2
 
135,726
✔
Image of Carolyn Long
Carolyn Long (D) Candidate Connection
 
39.7
 
95,875
Image of Martin Hash
Martin Hash (Unaffiliated)
 
1.6
 
3,904
Image of Davy Ray
Davy Ray (D)
 
1.5
 
3,522
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Devin Gray (D)
 
0.8
 
1,969
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
343

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 241,339
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 39 Washington counties—12.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Clallam County, Washington 2.76% 0.38% 3.30%
Cowlitz County, Washington 13.32% 4.44% 11.15%
Grays Harbor County, Washington 6.99% 14.11% 14.56%
Mason County, Washington 5.81% 7.09% 8.66%
Pacific County, Washington 6.74% 11.52% 14.07%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Washington with 52.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Washington cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Washington supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state favored Democrats in every election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Washington. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 25.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 30 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 32.1 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 15 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Washington's 3rd Congressional District the 205th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.00. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.00 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jaime Herrera Beutler Republican Party $4,623,991 $4,586,794 $86,164 As of December 31, 2020
Carolyn Long Democratic Party $4,187,791 $4,199,936 $18,007 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]

Race ratings: Washington's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in Washington in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Washington, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Washington 3rd Congressional District All candidates N/A N/A $1,740.00 1% of annual salary 5/15/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Washington's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Washington District 3

Incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler defeated Carolyn Long in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jaime Herrera Beutler
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
 
52.7
 
161,819
Image of Carolyn Long
Carolyn Long (D)
 
47.3
 
145,407

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 307,226
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Washington District 3

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House Washington District 3 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jaime Herrera Beutler
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
 
42.1
 
68,961
✔
Image of Carolyn Long
Carolyn Long (D)
 
35.3
 
57,798
Image of David McDevitt
David McDevitt (D)
 
8.0
 
13,124
Image of Earl Bowerman
Earl Bowerman (R)
 
5.5
 
9,018
Image of Dorothy Gasque
Dorothy Gasque (D)
 
4.9
 
7,983
Image of Michael Cortney
Michael Cortney (R) Candidate Connection
 
3.4
 
5,528
Image of Martin Hash
Martin Hash (D)
 
0.9
 
1,498

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 163,910
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Washington's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) defeated Jim Moeller (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Herrera Beutler and Moeller defeated David McDevitt (D), Angela Marx (D), Kathleen Arthur (D), and L.A. Worthington (independent) in the top-two primary on August 2, 2016.[11][12]

U.S. House, Washington District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJaime Herrera Beutler Incumbent 61.8% 193,457
     Democratic Jim Moeller 38.2% 119,820
Total Votes 313,277
Source: Washington Secretary of State


U.S. House, Washington District 3 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJaime Herrera Beutler Incumbent 55.5% 70,142
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJim Moeller 24.4% 30,848
     Democratic David McDevitt 10.2% 12,896
     Democratic Angela Marx 3.8% 4,851
     Democratic Kathleen Arthur 3.4% 4,296
     Independent L.A. Worthington 2.7% 3,402
Total Votes 126,435
Source: Washington Secretary of State

2014

See also: Washington's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Washington held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) defeated Bob Dingethal (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Washington District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJaime Herrera Beutler Incumbent 61.5% 124,796
     Democratic Bob Dingethal 38.5% 78,018
Total Votes 202,814
Source: Washington Secretary of State


2012

The 3rd Congressional District of Washington held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler won re-election in the district.[13]

U.S. House, Washington District 3 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJaime Herrera Beutler Incumbent 60.4% 177,446
     Democratic Jon T. Haugen 39.6% 116,438
Total Votes 293,884
Source: Washington Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Jaime Herrera won election to the United States House. She defeated Denny Heck (D) in the general election.[14]

U.S. House, Washington District 3 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJaime Herrera 53% 152,799
     Democratic Denny Heck 47% 135,654
Total Votes 288,453

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Washington is a vote-by-mail state. Early voting dates and polling hours apply to county-level vote centers where individuals can instead vote in person.
  2. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  11. ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "Unofficial List of Candidates in Ballot Order," accessed May 23, 2016
  12. ↑ Politico, "Washington House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  13. ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Washington"
  14. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013


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