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Washington State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Washington Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 2, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
Democrats gained a numerical majority in the Washington State Senate. However, Republicans maintained control of the chamber due to a Democratic senator who caucuses with Republicans.
A total of 26 seats out of the 49 seats in the Washington State Senate were up for election in 2016. Washington state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the Senate is scheduled for election every two years.
Republicans looked to defend their one-seat majority against the Democrats in the Washington State Senate, one of 20 battleground chambers. Realistically, either party could have ended up in control of the chamber.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the Washington State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on August 2, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was May 20, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Washington State Senate:
| Washington State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 24 | 25 | |
| Republican Party | 25 | 24[1] | |
| Total | 49 | 49 | |
Retired incumbents
Seven incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Rosemary McAuliffe |  Democratic |
Senate District 1 |
| Linda Evans Parlette |  Republican |
Senate District 12 |
| Mike Hewitt | Republican |
Senate District 16 |
| Don Benton | Republican |
Senate District 17 |
| Karen Fraser | Democratic |
Senate District 22 |
| James Hargrove | Democratic |
Senate District 24 |
| Bruce Dammeier | Republican |
Senate District 25 |
2016 election competitiveness
Washington sees more incumbents facing primary challengers.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Washington performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Washington State Senate, there were 24 Democratic incumbents and 25 Republican incumbents. Two incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were three primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 50 Democratic incumbents and 48 Republican incumbents. Thirteen state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 13 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Washington can be found below.
Context of the 2016 elections
The Washington State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target. The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races during the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 17, House District 44-Position 1, and House District 45-Position 1 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[2][3]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 30-Position 1 and Senate District 28 in their "2016 Essential Races."[4][5]
The political control of Washington State was subject to drastic change depending on the 2016 general election results. Republicans controlled the state Senate by one seat, while Democrats controlled the state House by two seats. The following scenarios were possible in the legislature:
- Status quo: chambers are divided.
- In the status quo scenario, the next two years in the Washington Legislature would be similar to the past two years since Republicans took over the state Senate. Neither major party would be able to further their own policy agendas without bipartisan support.[6]
- Democratic trifecta: Democrats retake the state Senate and retain the state House.
- If Democrats controlled the governor's office and both chambers of the legislature, Democrats would have the opportunity to further their policies. In past legislative sessions, the GOP Senate blocked Democratic legislation dealing with gun regulation and climate-change legislation.[6]
- Republicans control both chambers: Republicans retain the state Senate and flip the state House.
- If Republicans controlled both the state Senate and state House, Republicans would be able to create the state budget and further their own priorities without intervention from Democratic lawmakers. Republicans would also be able to block Democratic policies. Democrats would need to have relied on the veto powers of Gov. Jay Inslee (D) to block legislation.[6]
Seven Senate incumbents—four Republicans and three Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. Since Republican presidential nominees have such a hard time winning in Washington, Senate Republicans looked to differentiate themselves from Donald Trump (R). Brent Ludeman, executive director of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, said on presidential elections and Washington State that, "We’ve always had to overcome the national environment regardless of who’s at the top of the ticket."[6]
Since only about half of the state Senate was up for election in 2016, Adam Bartz, executive director for the Washington Senate Democratic Campaign, said that Democrats didn't have to defend as many seats compared to past elections. Bartz said Democrats were going on the offensive in many districts and he believed that they "...have really great opportunities this year."[6]
Races we were watching
Ballotpedia identified seven notable Washington state legislative races in 2016, three of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Washington races »
General election contests
- A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a Republican-leaning district.
- ☐ Mark Mullet (Inc.) ☐ Chad Magendanz
- A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Tim Probst ☑ Lynda Wilson
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in this seat.
- ☐ Marisa Peloquin ☑ Steve O'Ban (Inc.)
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Washington Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Guy Palumbo: 40,758  |
Mindie Wirth: 30,850 | |
| 2 | Marilyn Rasmussen: 23,149 | Randi Becker: 36,739 (I) |
|
| 3 | Andy Billig: 33,777 (I) |
No candidate | James Apker: 16,395 (L) |
| 4 | No candidate | Mike Padden (I) |
|
| 5 | Mark Mullet: 37,342 (I) |
Chad Magendanz: 36,826 | |
| 9 | No candidate | Mark Schoesler (I) |
|
| 10 | Angie Homola: 32,309 | Barbara Bailey: 42,309 (I) |
|
| 11 | Bob Hasegawa: 38,785 (I) |
No candidate | Dennis Price: 12,010 (L) |
| 12 | No candidate | Brad Hawkins: 30,882 Jon Wyss: 24,258 |
|
| 14 | No candidate | Curtis King: 31,156 (I) |
Amanda Richards: 19,900 (Independent Republican) |
| 16 | No candidate | Maureen Walsh |
|
| 17 | No candidate | Lynda Wilson: 32,766 |
Tim Probst: 26,686 (Independent Democrat) |
| 18 | Eric Holt: 25,699 | Ann Rivers: 45,316 (I) |
|
| 19 | Dean Takko: 30,850 (I) |
No candidate | Sue Kuehl Pederson: 25,064 (Independent Republican) |
| 20 | No candidate | John Braun (I) |
|
| 22 | Sam Hunt: 45,882 |
No candidate | Steve Owens: 22,986 (No party preference) |
| 23 | Christine Rolfes (I) |
No candidate | |
| 24 | Kevin Van De Wege: 40,808 |
No candidate | Danille Turissini: 31,342 (Independent Republican) |
| 25 | Karl Mecklenburg: 24,088 | Hans Zeiger: 35,138 |
|
| 27 | Jeannie Darneille: 40,241 (I) |
Greg Taylor: 17,859 | |
| 28 | Marisa Peloquin: 26,835 | Steve O'Ban: 30,139 (I) |
|
| 36 | Reuven Carlyle (I) |
No candidate | |
| 39 | No candidate | Kirk Pearson (I) |
|
| 40 | Kevin Ranker: 47,108 (I) |
Daniel Miller: 23,081 | |
| 41 | Lisa Wellman: 37,107 |
Steve Litzow: 34,446 (I) | |
| 49 | Annette Cleveland: 34,548 (I) |
Lewis Gerhardt: 20,943 | |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
| 2016 Washington Senate top-two primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Guy Palumbo: 9,369 Luis Moscoso: 8,568 |
Mindie Wirth: 11,959 |
|
| 2 | Tamborine Borrelli: 3,680 Marilyn Rasmussen: 6,517 |
Randi Becker: 14,103 (I) |
|
| 3 | Andy Billig (I) |
No candidate | James Apker (L)
|
| 4 | No candidate | Mike Padden (I) |
|
| 5 | Mark Mullet (I) |
Chad Magendanz |
|
| 9 | No candidate | Mark Schoesler (I) |
|
| 10 | Angie Homola: 13,928 Nick Petrish: 3,851 |
Barbara Bailey: 18,860 (I) |
|
| 11 | Bob Hasegawa (I) |
No candidate | Dennis Price (L)
|
| 12 | No candidate | Brad Hawkins Jon Wyss |
|
| 14 | No candidate | Curtis King (I) Amanda Richards (Ind. Rep.) |
|
| 16 | No candidate | Maureen Walsh |
|
| 17 | Tim Probst (Ind. Dem.) |
Lynda Wilson |
|
| 18 | Eric Holt |
Ann Rivers (I) |
|
| 19 | Dean Takko (I) |
Sue Kuehl Pederson (Ind. Rep.) |
|
| 20 | No candidate | John Braun (I) |
|
| 22 | Erik Lee: 4,872 Sam Hunt: 17,992 Spencer Baldwin: 2,662 |
No candidate | Steve Owens: 6,934 (No party preference)
|
| 23 | Christine Rolfes (I) |
No candidate | |
| 24 | Kevin Van De Wege |
Danille Turissini (Ind. Rep.) |
|
| 25 | Karl Mecklenburg |
Hans Zeiger |
|
| 27 | Jeannie Darneille: 15,141 (I) Martin Cline: 2,882 |
Greg Taylor: 6,356 |
|
| 28 | Marisa Peloquin |
Steve O'Ban (I) |
|
| 36 | Reuven Carlyle (I) |
No candidate | |
| 39 | No candidate | Kirk Pearson (I) |
|
| 40 | Kevin Ranker (I) |
Daniel Miller |
|
| 41 | Lisa Wellman: 14,800 |
Steve Litzow: 14,344 (I) |
Bryan Simonson: 1,189 (L) |
| 49 | Vaughn Henderson: 1,366 Annette Cleveland: 12,581 (I) |
Lewis Gerhardt: 6,980 |
Justin Forsman: 1,194 (Ind.) |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Write-in candidates
- Erin Georgen, District 3
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Washington State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 26 races in the Washington State Senate in 2016, 19 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 20.6 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[7]
| Democratic candidates in the Washington State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 13 races. In the 11 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 23.6 percent. Republicans won 13 races in 2016. In the eight races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 16.6 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Three of the 19 contested races in 2016—15.8 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Two races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won two races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Washington State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 5 D 0.7 percent District 28 R 5.8 percent District 41 D 3.7 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Washington State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 18 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 12 winning Washington State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 23.9 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Washington State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. Nine Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the seven races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 28 percent. Nine Republican incumbents won re-election. In the five races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.3 percent. |
Washington State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[8] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[8] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 13 23.6 percent 9 28.0 percent 2 2 15.4 percent Republican 13 16.6 percent 9 18.3 percent 4 5 38.5 percent Total 26 20.6 percent 18 23.9 percent 6 7 26.9 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Washington State Senate districts in 2016.
| Washington State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 13.8 percent |
| District 2 | R | 22.7 percent |
| District 3 | D | 34.6 percent |
| District 4 | R | Unopposed |
| District 5 | D | 0.7 percent |
| District 9 | R | Unopposed |
| District 10 | R | 13.4 percent |
| District 11 | D | 52.7 percent |
| District 12 | R | 12.0 percent |
| District 14 | R | 22.1 percent |
| District 16 | R | Unopposed |
| District 17 | R | 10.2 percent |
| District 18 | R | 27.6 percent |
| District 19 | D | 10.4 percent |
| District 20 | R | Unopposed |
| District 22 | D | 33.3 percent |
| District 23 | D | Unopposed |
| District 24 | D | 13.1 percent |
| District 25 | R | 18.7 percent |
| District 27 | D | 38.5 percent |
| District 28 | R | 5.8 percent |
| District 36 | D | Unopposed |
| District 39 | R | Unopposed |
| District 40 | D | 34.2 percent |
| District 41 | D | 3.7 percent |
| District 49 | D | 24.5 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Washington elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Washington in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 and C-3 due, if required | |
| February 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 and C-3 due, if required | |
| March 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 and C-3 due, if required | |
| April 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 and C-3 due, if required | |
| May 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 and C-3 due, if required | |
| May 20, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for all candidates | |
| June 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 due, if required | |
| July 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | 21-day pre-primary C-4 due | |
| July 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in primary candidates | |
| July 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day pre-primary C-4 due | |
| August 2, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-primary C-4 due | |
| October 18, 2016 | Campaign finance | 21-day pre-general C-4 due | |
| October 21, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in general election candidates | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day pre-general C-4 due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-general C-4 due (and C-3, if required) | |
| January 10, 2017 | Campaign finance | End of election cycle C-4 due (and C-3, if required) | |
| Note: Beginning June 1, 2016, C-3 reports must be filed weekly for deposits made during the previous seven days. Sources: Washington Secretary of State, "2016 Elections Calendar," accessed June 12, 2015 Washington Public Disclosure Commission, "2016 Key Reporting Dates for Candidates," accessed November 25, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 12 of the 26 seats up for election in 2016, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 5 Democrats and 7 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 14 (54 percent) of the 26 seats up for election.
Note: Candidates filed as an Independent Democrat or Independent Republican were counted as a Democrat or Republican in the competitiveness analysis.
Primary challenges
Five incumbents faced primary competition on August 2. Seven incumbents did not seek re-election and another 14 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Seven incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 19 incumbents ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, four Republicans and three Democrats, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Washington's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Washington Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 10.6% | 15.5% | 66.7% | 30.9 | 18 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Washington in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[9]
| Washington State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 56 | $10,719,479 |
| 2012 | 50 | $8,989,448 |
| 2010 | 54 | $7,666,543 |
| 2008 | 78 | $6,660,121 |
| 2006 | 73 | $6,961,669 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Washington, at $191,419 per candidate, is ranked 12 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[9][10]
Qualifications
Section 7 of Article 2 of the Washington State Constitution states: "No person shall be eligible to the legislature who shall not be a citizen of the United States and a qualified voter in the district for which he is chosen."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ A power-sharing agreement gave Republicans effective control of the chamber.
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 Seattle Times, "Handful of races could flip political control of Legislature," accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Washington," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
