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West Virginia State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 West Virginia Senate Elections | |
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| Primary | May 10, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
A total of 18 seats out of the 34 seats in the West Virginia State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained four seats in the November 2016 general election.
West Virginia state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the West Virginia State Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These were the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the West Virginia State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on May 10, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was January 30, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the West Virginia State Senate:
| West Virginia State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 16 | 12 | |
| Republican Party | 18 | 22 | |
| Total | 34 | 34 | |
Retired incumbents
Four incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Kessler |  Democratic |
Senate District 2 |
| Bill Cole |  Republican |
Senate District 6 |
| William Laird | Democratic |
Senate District 10 |
| Herb Snyder | Democratic |
Senate District 16 |
2016 election competitiveness
West Virginia saw an increase in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well West Virginia performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the West Virginia State Senate, there were 16 Democratic incumbents and 18 Republican incumbents. Two incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were four incumbents facing primary challenges in the Republican primary. In the election for Senate District 3a, two Republican incumbents faced each other in the primary.
- In the House, there were 36 Democratic incumbents and 64 Republican incumbents. Seventeen state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 19 incumbents facing primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in West Virginia can be found below.
Context of the 2016 elections
Before the Republican Party took control of the West Virginia State Senate in 2014, the Democratic Party held the chamber for more than 80 years.[3] Since the 2010 election, Democrats had lost 11 seats in the state Senate. Though Democrats have lost control of the legislature, they still control the governor's office.
The West Virginia State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[4] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 16 and House District 38 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[5]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 16 in their "2016 Essential Races."[6]
Out of the state Senate's 34 seats, Democrats controlled 16 seats and Republicans controlled 18 seats. Democrats needed to win 12 of the 18 seats up for election to flip the chamber, while Republicans only needed to retain eight seats to keep the chamber in Republican control.[7] Five seats were competitive in 2016. Four Senate incumbents—one Republican and three Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. Two incumbents, Robert Ashley (R-3) and Art Kirkendoll (D-7), were defeated in the primary election on May 10, 2016.
In 2012, the last year when this year's state Senate districts held elections, three districts had competitive elections. Races in Districts 8, 9, and 16 were decided by eight points or less. District 8 went to a Republican, while Districts 9 and 16 were won by Democrats. However, Daniel Hall, who won District 9 as a Democrat, changed to the Republican Party after the election and resigned at the beginning of 2016. Republican Sue Cline was appointed to take his seat. Herb Snyder, the Democratic incumbent of District 16, did not run for re-election. Democrats, as a result, did not have the benefit of incumbency in these competitive districts leading up to the election.
Some of the major issues among West Virginia voters included right-to-work, the prevailing wage, and safety regulations. These issues were pushed through the Republican legislature during the 2016 regular session. The legislature overturned the governor's veto and passed a right-to-work bill.[8] Labor unions were expected to use their influence in the 2016 election to flip the state Senate.[7]
Voter turnout
Democrats held a voter registration advantage over Republicans of 16 percent. As of September 2016, Democrats made up 46 percent of registered voters, and Republicans made up 30 percent. The other 24 percent of registered voters were made up of Mountain Party, Libertarian, no party, and other.[9] Voter turnout was expected to be high in 2016 because of the presidential election. West Virginia Democrats hoped that the lack of Barack Obama on the Democratic ticket would increase Democratic turnout. Democratic state politicians blamed Obama's "non-existent War on Coal" as one of the reasons for the Republican resurgence in the state.[7][10]
The 2016 primary election had a voter turnout of about 40 percent. In the last two presidential election years, 2008 and 2012, the state had a primary turnout of 36 percent and 27 percent, respectively. In 2014, the voter turnout in the primary was at 19.7 percent and was the lowest in the state's history. The state was ranked last in the U.S. in voter general election turnout in 2014.[11][12]
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Races we were watching
Ballotpedia identified nine notable West Virginia primary races in 2016, two of which were state Senate races.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable West Virginia races »
Primary contests
State Senate District 3(a) (R)
- Two Republican incumbents competed for the same state Senate seat.
- ☐ Robert Ashley (Inc.) ☑ Donna Boley (Inc.)
- The state Senate majority leader faced a primary challenger as well as criticism from the left and the right.
- ☑ Mitch Carmichael (Inc.) ☐ Dustin Lewis
General election contests
Ballotpedia identified six notable West Virginia state general election races in 2016, five of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable West Virginia races »
- A Democrat challenged a Republican incumbent in a competitive district.
- ☑ Glenn Jeffries ☐ Chris Walters (Inc.)
- Democrats sought control of a district they had won in 2012.
- ☐ Mike Goode ☑ Sue Cline (Inc.)
- A Democratic state delegate and a Mountain Party candidate are challenged the current Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Denise Campbell ☑ Greg Boso (Inc.) ☐ Bruce Breuninger
- A Republican state delegate and a Libertarian candidate are challenged the current Democratic incumbent.
- ☐ Robert Williams (Inc.) ☑ Randy E. Smith ☐ Matthew Persinger
- A Democrat fought to keep an open seat in a competitive district most recently held by a Democrat.
- ☐ Stephen Skinner ☑ Patricia Rucker
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 West Virginia Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
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Other |
| 1 | Jack Yost: 20,303 (I) | Ryan Weld: 21,191  |
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| 2 | Lisa Zukoff: 15,754 | Mike Maroney: 22,902 |
H. John Rogers: 3,521 (L) |
| 3(a) | Bradley Vanzile: 14,826 | Donna Boley: 27,172 (I) |
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| 3(b) | Gregory K. Smith: 19,125 | Mike Azinger: 23,034 |
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| 4 | Brian Prim: 21,123 | Mitch B. Carmichael: 22,032 (I) |
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| 5 | Robert Plymale: 22,863 (I) |
Tyson Smith: 15,092 | |
| 6 | Rocky Seay: 15,606 | Chandler Swope: 20,776 |
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| 7 | Richard Ojeda: 19,978 |
Jordan Bridges: 13,987 | |
| 8 | Glenn Jeffries: 20,768 |
Chris Walters: 18,357 (I) | |
| 9 | Mike Goode: 17,545 | Sue Cline: 18,861 (I) |
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| 10 | Dave Perry: 17,494 | Kenny Mann: 21,148 |
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| 11 | Denise Campbell: 19,718 | Greg Boso: 20,610 (I) |
Bruce Breuninger: 1,404 (Mountain) |
| 12 | Doug Facemire: 21,295 (I) |
Franklin Cornette: 21,188 | |
| 13 | Roman Prezioso: 24,404 (I) |
Barry Bledsoe: 16,544 | |
| 14 | Robert Williams: 18,264 (I) | Randy E. Smith: 23,201 |
Matthew Persinger: 2,098 (L) |
| 15 | Brad Noll: 13,629 | Craig Blair: 32,475 (I) |
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| 16 | Stephen Skinner: 20,122 | Patricia Rucker: 22,499 |
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| 17 | Corey Palumbo: 22,781 (I) |
Chris Stansbury: 18,345 | |
Notes:
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Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the West Virginia State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 18 races in the West Virginia State Senate in 2016, 18 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 12.3 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[13]
| Democratic candidates in the West Virginia State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won six races. In the six races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 12.4 percent. Republicans won 12 races in 2016. In the 12 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 12.3 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Nine of the 18 contested races in 2016—50 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Five races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won seven races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
West Virginia State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 1 R 2.1 percent District 3(b) R 9.3 District 4 R 2.1 percent percent District 8 D 6.2 percent District 9 R 3.6 percent District 10 R 9.5 percent District 11 R 2.1 percent District 12 D 0.3 percent District 16 R 5.6 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the West Virginia State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Nine incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the nine winning West Virginia State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 14.3 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the West Virginia State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Five Republican incumbents won re-election. In the five races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 15.6 percent. Four Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the four races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 12.7 percent. |
West Virginia State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[14] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[14] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 6 12.4 percent 4 12.7 percent 0 0 N/A Republican 12 12.3 percent 5 15.6 percent 0 0 N/A Total 18 12.3 percent 9 14.3 percent 0 0 N/A
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in West Virginia State Senate districts in 2016.
| West Virginia State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 2.1 percent |
| District 2 | R | 17.0 percent |
| District 3(a) | R | 29.4 percent |
| District 3(b) | R | 9.3 percent |
| District 4 | R | 2.1 percent |
| District 5 | D | 20.5 percent |
| District 6 | R | 14.2 percent |
| District 7 | D | 17.6 percent |
| District 8 | D | 6.2 percent |
| District 9 | R | 3.6 percent |
| District 10 | R | 9.5 percent |
| District 11 | R | 2.1 percent |
| District 12 | D | 0.3 percent |
| District 13 | D | 19.2 percent |
| District 14 | R | 11.3 percent |
| District 15 | R | 40.9 percent |
| District 16 | R | 5.6 percent |
| District 17 | D | 10.8 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: West Virginia elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in West Virginia in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Partisan candidate filing deadline | |
| April 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | First primary report due | |
| April 29, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary report due | |
| May 10, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| June 20, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-primary report due | |
| August 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Unaffiliated candidate filing deadline | |
| September 20, 2016 | Ballot access | Write-in candidate filing deadline | |
| September 30, 2016 | Campaign finance | First general report due | |
| October 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-general report due | |
| March 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | Annual report due | |
| Sources: West Virginia Secretary of State, "2016 Election, Dates and Deadlines," accessed June 14, 2015 West Virginia Secretary of State, "For Non-Party Affiliated Candidates," accessed June 14, 2015 West Virginia Secretary of State, "Candidates and Voters Guide to Write-in Filing and Voting Procedures," accessed June 14, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates with major party opposition
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in all eighteen seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Six incumbents, two Democrats and four Republicans, faced primary competition on May 10. Four incumbents did not seek re-election and another 14 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following incumbents were defeated in the primary:
- District 3: Bob Ashley (R)
- District 7: Art Kirkendoll (D)
Retired incumbents
Four incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 14 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, one Republican and three Democrats, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details West Virginia's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| West Virginia Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 9.4% | 31.1% | 83.8% | 41.4 | 9 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in West Virginia in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[15]
| West Virginia State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 43 | $4,018,392 |
| 2012 | 32 | $1,952,005 |
| 2010 | 51 | $2,668,203 |
| 2008 | 41 | $2,442,714 |
| 2006 | 45 | $3,435,391 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. West Virginia, at $93,451 per candidate, is ranked 23 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[15][16]
Qualifications
Section 13 of Article 6 of the West Virginia Constitution states: "No person holding any other lucrative office or employment under this state, the United States, or any foreign government; no member of Congress; and no person who is sheriff, constable, or clerk of any court of record, shall be eligible to a seat in the Legislature."
See also
External links
- West Virginia Secretary of State - Candidate filings
- West Virginia Secretary of State - Primary results
Footnotes
- ↑ These seats were last up for election in 2012
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ West Virginia Encyclopedia, "Legislature," accessed January 20, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ DLCC, "DLCC Releases Final, Expanded Installment of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Daily Kos, "WV state Senate - The Race for 18," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ The Huffington Post, "West Virginia Republicans Just Delivered A Huge Blow To Unions," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ West Virginia Secretary of State, "Voter Registration Totals," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ The Nation, "The Myth of the ‘War On Coal’," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ West Virginia Public Broadcasting, "Top 10 Races to Watch in West Virginia’s Primary Election," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ West Virginia Public Broadcasting, "10 Takeaways from the W.Va. Primary Election," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in West Virginia," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
