Your monthly support provides voters the knowledge they need to make confident decisions at the polls. Donate today.

What happens if a presidential candidate declares victory in the 2020 election before results are final

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
This article covers subjects specific to the 2020 general election. It has not been updated to reflect subsequent developments.
Click here for more information about our 2020 election coverage.
Help desk logo notext.png
Ballotpedia's 2020 Election Help Desk
Use the buttons below to see Help Desk hubs for other years.
2022 »
Disputed results
Presidential election lawsuits and recounts
Post-election lawsuits
Frequently asked questions
General questions
Presidential election
Processing/counting mail ballots
Results and certification
Disputing results • Officeholder transitions
Absentee/mail-in voting analysis
Mail-in voting by state, 2016-2018
Mail-in rejection by state, 2016-2018
Uncalled races, 2018
When can states begin counting?
Processing, counting, and challenging ballots
Voting in 2020
Absentee/mail-in voting • Early voting • Voter ID
Poll opening and closing times
Recount laws by state
Recount margin requirements by state
U.S. Supreme Court actions
Elections by state

Several factors have raised the possibility that media outlets will not be able to call the presidential election on election night in 2020.[1] What happens if a presidential candidate declares victory before results are final?

A candidate who declares victory before results are final could end up losing the election after all votes are counted. The election results that state and local election agencies present on election night are unofficial, partial results. After election night, results are finalized during what is called the canvassing and certification of the vote.

During this process, elections officials verify that votes were counted correctly. Officials review rejected ballots and finish tallying write-in, provisional, and mail-in ballots.[2] States then publish a report presenting the official election results. Often this report will include statistics on voter turnout, the number of absentee vs. in-person ballots counted, and the percentage of absentee ballots that were rejected.[2] State laws set different deadlines for when each state must complete the certification of election results. In 2020, these deadlines range from mid-November to mid-December.

Electoral College deadlines

See also: What are the steps and deadlines for electing the President of the United States? (2020)

The presidential election follows a standard timeline, determined by federal law and the U.S. Constitution. The timeline below lays out the steps for electing the president that fall after November 3, 2020.

  • November 3, 2020: Election Day
  • Voters across the country select a candidate for president and vice president. In doing so, voters determine which political party sends a slate of electors to the Electoral College to represent their state. Each state receives the same number of electors as the members of its congressional delegation.
  • December 8, 2020: Safe harbor deadline
  • Federal law sets what is called the safe harbor deadline. If states have nominated electors in accordance with state law by this date, Congress cannot challenge their nomination.[3]
  • The 538 members of the Electoral College cast their votes. Electors do not convene in one location but vote in their respective state capitals.[4] A record of the outcome is mailed to the Vice President, the Archivist of the United States, the state's Secretary of State, and the U.S. District Court judge in the district where the vote took place.[3]
  • December 23, 2020: Deadline for receipt of election results
  • If the Vice President does not receive the official record of a state's Electoral College vote by this deadline, he or she must request the record from the relevant Secretary of State and U.S District Court judge.[3]
  • January 6, 2021: Congress counts electoral votes
  • The newly elected Congress convenes in a joint session to count the electoral votes. Members of Congress can present objections to the results. If an objection is made in writing by both a member of the Senate and a member of the House, Congress will debate and vote on the objection's merit. Electoral votes can be excluded only if both chambers vote to accept the objection. If a ticket receives 270 electoral votes, or a majority of the 538 members of the Electoral College, the Vice President formally declares the winner of the election.[3]
  • January 20, 2021: Inauguration Day

Potential for delayed election results

Several factors have raised the possibility that media outlets will not be able to call the presidential election on election night in 2020.[5]

  • Changes to election laws and procedures due to the coronavirus pandemic have prompted lawsuits that could extend past Election Day.[6]
  • In some states, state law triggers a recount if a candidate leads by a small enough margin.[7]
  • According to one projection, voters will cast 80 million absentee/mail-in votes during the 2020 election, more than double the number cast in 2016.[8] In some states, elections officials are legally obligated to wait until Election Day to process and/or count absentee votes. Moreover, some states accept absentee/mail-in ballots that are received after November 3.

These factors have prompted debate over when we can expect the presidential election to be called.

Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution, a public policy thinktank, argues that we probably will not know the outcome of the presidential election on election night.

“ Instead of election night in November 2020 we may have to prepare for election week, or even election month. That’s because it is likely that we will not know the results of the 2020 election on election night in November—there will be more absentee ballots than ever before and it will take longer to count them.[9][10] ”


However, Nathaniel Persily and Charles Stewart III, co-directors of the Standford-MIT Healthy Elections Project, argue that "in all likelihood, we will have a good idea on election night, or within a few days after, of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden won the White House."[11] They elaborate:

“ Even if all states can’t produce a complete preliminary count of their ballots by the wee hours of Wednesday morning, and even if the earliest votes skew Republican, these earliest returns may still contain enough information to allow us to see whether Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden has a clear path to 270 electoral votes—and whose path is wider. ... Of course, preliminary election-night returns might be consistent with a nail-biter of an election. If, say, Mr. Biden gets just an early one-point shift in Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, instead of a four-point one, we will need to wait much longer to know who won.[11][10] ”


Predictions about a blue shift in election results

The term blue shift refers to the thesis that Democratic presidential candidates tend to make greater gains than Republican candidates as votes are counted after election night. The term was coined by Edward Foley, a professor of constitutional law at Ohio State University. According to the blue shift thesis, Democratic voters are more likely to use provisional ballots than Republican voters. A provisional ballot is one that is only counted after the voter's eligibility to vote is verified. Because provisional ballots can be counted after election night, according to this picture, Democratic candidates tend to make greater gains after election night than Republican candidates do.Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; invalid names, e.g. too many

Foley has predicted that the 2020 presidential election will demonstrate a blue shift.Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; invalid names, e.g. too many

“ It is not unreasonable to expect Trump’s Democratic opponent in 2020 to gain on Trump by over 20,000 votes in Pennsylvania during the period between Election Night and the final, official certification of the canvass. The key question is whether this kind of gain simply extends a lead that the Democratic candidate already has, comparable to what occurred in two statewide races in 2018. Or whether, instead, it cuts into a lead that Trump starts with on Election Night—and, if so, whether it is enough of a gain for Trump’s Democratic opponent to overcome Trump’s Election Night lead.[12][10] ”


In a Wall Street Journal oped, Nathaniel Persily and Charles Stewart III, co-directors of the Standford-MIT Healthy Elections Project, present an objection to the blue shift thesis.

“ These nightmare scenarios ignore several key facts, however. Most states begin processing their ballots before election day, and almost all begin putting them through scanners before the polls close. Many states intermingle sent-by-mail and election-day ballots at the polling places, where they are scanned together, so that when the precinct count is released, it contains both in-person and mail ballots. In such states—which include such battlegrounds as New Hampshire and most of Wisconsin—the polling place counts may be released a few hours later than they might in another year, but not days later.[11][10] ”


The 2020 election took place against a backdrop of uncertainty. Our readers had questions about what to expect in elections at all levels of government, from the casting of ballots to the certification of final results. Ballotpedia's 2020 Election Help Desk was designed to answer those questions.

More frequently asked questions about the 2020 election

Click on a question below to read the answer:

See also

Related articles

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Axios, "Exclusive: The Washington Post won't predict the election outcome," October 13, 2020
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Election Assistance Commission, "Canvassing and Certifying an Election," accessed October 12, 2020
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Congressional Research Service, "The Electoral College: A 2020 Presidential Election Timeline," September 3, 2020
  4. ↑ The Washington Post, "How does the electoral college actually vote? An explainer," December 19, 2016
  5. ↑ Axios, "Exclusive: The Washington Post won't predict the election outcome," October 13, 2020
  6. ↑ The New York Times, "As November Looms, So Does the Most Litigious Election Ever," July 7, 2020
  7. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "Automatic Recounts," January 30, 2020
  8. ↑ The New York Times, "Where Americans Can Vote by Mail in the 2020 Elections," August 14, 2020
  9. ↑ Brookings, "Election night? Think again—election month might be more like it," August 4, 2020
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 The Wall Street Journal, "Actually, We Will Know a Lot on Election Night," September 24, 2020 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "WSJ" defined multiple times with different content
  12. ↑ The Atlantic, "The ‘Blue Shift’ Will Decide the Election," August 10, 2020
v • e
Ballotpedia's 2020 Election Help Desk
General informationHelp desk logo notext.png
Disputed results
Presidential election
Absentee and mail voting
Absentee/mail-in voting: Eligibility • Request deadlines • Request requirements • Return deadlines • Signature and witness requirements • Life cycle of an absentee/mail-in ballot • Processing, counting, and challenging ballots • When can states begin processing and counting ballots • What happens if I vote by mail and want to change my ballot at a later date? • What happens if someone votes by mail and then tries to vote in person? • How do states protect and verify absentee/mail-in ballots? • How do election workers match signatures? • Do absentee/mail-in ballots take longer to count than in-person ballots? • Are results reported on election night coming from in-person or absentee/mail-in votes? • Do states report how many mail-in/absentee ballots are outstanding on election night? • What happens if someone votes by mail-in ballot or absentee ballot and subsequently passes away before Election Day?
Analysis, 2016-2018 • Counted ballots, 2016-2018 • Rejected ballots, 2016-2018 • Uncalled races, 2018
Election results certification
Disputing election results
Transition
Other
Voting in 2020
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=What_happens_if_a_presidential_candidate_declares_victory_in_the_2020_election_before_results_are_final&oldid=10184861"