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What to look for in the Indiana primary
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Presidential election in Indiana, 2016
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards |
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May 3, 2016
As their contentious battle for the Republican presidential nomination continues, Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz agree on at least one thing: the Indiana GOP presidential primary looms as potentially the decisive contest in their race. Last week, Cruz tweeted, “The eyes of the nation are now gazing upon Indiana to make a decision for our country.” Campaigning in Carmel, Indiana on Monday, Trump declared, "If we win Indiana, it's over." (Although he’s uttered similar versions of this phrase in previous primaries.)
Cruz got the one-on-one showdown he wanted with Trump in Indiana after he and Gov. John Kasich agreed to divide up some of the remaining primary states in a last-ditch attempt to stop the billionaire developer from capturing the GOP nomination. While that pact has frayed a bit, Cruz has largely had Indiana to himself to take on Trump, and a loss, particularly a lopsided one, would undercut his claim that he should be the GOP standard bearer.
On the Democratic side, the contest between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders seems to have lost some of its fire after Clinton blunted whatever momentum Sanders had by winning the New York primary on April 19 and four-out-of-five primaries on April 26, including the largest on that day, Pennsylvania’s. Clinton needs to win only about a quarter of the vote in the remaining primaries and caucuses to earn enough pledged delegates to lock up the Democratic nomination, assuming she maintains her overwhelming lead among Democratic super-delegates, the 714 or so party and elected officials who are automatic delegates to the convention and can support whichever candidate they want. Sanders has appealed to super-delegates to back him in the states where he won caucuses or primaries but that pitch is likely to fall mostly on deaf ears.
If the past primaries are any guide, Sanders should run well in the rural areas of the state and on the campuses, like Indiana University in Bloomington (Monroe County) and Purdue (Tippecanoe County). Clinton is likely to do well in major cities with relatively large numbers of African American voters like Indianapolis (Marion County) and Gary (Lake County). Trump and Cruz could both do well in rural Indiana. With his tough talk on trade, Trump is likely to do well in older manufacturing centers like Ft. Wayne (Allen County), Gary (Lake), Kokomo (Howard County) and Marion (Grant County).
Most of the polls close in Indiana at 6:00PM EST, but since 12 of the state’s 92 counties are in the Central Time Zone, the earliest possible projection of a winner by the television networks will be 7:00PM EST.
The statewide winner in the Republican primary receives 30 national delegates; the nine congressional districts also allocate 3 national delegates each on a winner-take-all basis. Democratic primary allocates 27 at-large delegates proportionally to any candidate who receives at least 15 percent of the statewide primary vote. A total of 56 delegates from the congressional districts are allocated proportionally to candidates who hit a 15 percent threshold in each CD. The remaining nine Democratic delegates are super-delegates.
There is no party registration in Indiana and thus the state has an “open primary,” where any registered voter can vote in either primary contest. As of April 5, there were 4,049,763 registered voters in Indiana. There is no Election Day registration in the state.
Turnout could well set a record in the Republican presidential primary while the Democrats aren’t likely to match the record they set in 2008.
Past Indiana Presidential Primary Turnouts:
| Year | Democrat | Republican |
| 2012 | 221,466 | 635,589 |
| 2008 | 1,278,314 | 412,673 |
| 2004 | 317,211 | 469,528 |
| 2000 | 293,172 | 406,664 |
| 1996 | 329,462 | 516,514 |
| 1992 | 476,849 | 467,615 |
| 1988 | 645,708 | 437,655 |
| 1984 | 716,955 | 428,559 |
| 1980 | 589,441 | 568,313 |
| 1976 | 614,389 | 631,292 |
Republican Presidential Primary 2012
Mitt Romney: 65%
Rick Santorum: 16%
Ron Paul: 13%
Newt Gingrich: 6%
Democratic Presidential Primary 2008
Barack Obama: 51%
Hillary Clinton: 49%
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will help to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
