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What to look for in the South Carolina Democratic Primary

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Presidential election in South Carolina, 2016

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February 24, 2016

By James A. Barnes

When Democrats hold their South Carolina presidential primary on February 27, large numbers of black voters are expected to participate, giving Hillary Clinton a distinct advantage over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in a primary that she lost by nearly 30 percentage points in 2008 to then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

Fifty-three of the 59 national delegates from South Carolina to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated proportionally to any candidates receiving at least 15 percent of the statewide primary vote and at least 15 percent of the vote in any one of the state’s seven congressional districts.

All polls in South Carolina close at 7:00 p.m. EST, and the primary ballots are counted quickly, so the television networks should be able to project the winner early in the evening. There is no party registration in South Carolina. Any registered voter can vote in the Democratic presidential primary. Voters who voted in the Republican presidential primary on February 20 will not be allowed to vote in the Democratic presidential primary on February 27.

Voter registration as of January 2, 2016: 2,948,772

It’s unclear which Democratic White House hopeful is helped by a large turnout. Sanders is helped when younger voters participate in large numbers. He’s carried 2016 Democratic primary and caucus voters ages 17 to 29 by margins of up to six to one. At the same time, black voters in the Nevada Democratic caucus voted for Clinton by a margin of more than three to one; in 2008, they made up 55 percent of the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary electorate. Watch the vote out of Orangeburg County, south of Columbia, to get a sense of black turnout and the level of support Clinton is receiving.

Number of voters
Year Vote
2008 532,151
2004 280,431
1992 116,441
  • In 1996 and 2000, Democrats held a caucus instead of a presidential primary. In 2012, President Barack Obama ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will be helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.

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