What to look for in the South Carolina GOP primary
Presidential election in South Carolina, 2016
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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February 19, 2016
South Carolina voters go to the polls on Saturday as the 2016 Republican presidential nominating contest enters a critical junction. Will billionaire developer Donald Trump continue to build momentum towards an improbable presidential nomination or will Florida Sen. Marco Rubio begin to consolidate a broad enough coalition in the party to thwart him? Will Texas Sen. Ted Cruz once again ride the support of born-again and Evangelical Christian voters to another strong showing? Will this be the last gasp of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s campaign?
Once the polls in South Carolina close at 7:00 PM EST, we will begin to learn answers to those questions as the television networks will be able to start characterizing the race. If Trump’s lead in the pre-primary polls holds up in the primary voting, a winner could be projected fairly quickly. And even if the race is close, South Carolina counts votes quickly so this not likely to be a late night to find out who wins the primary.
There is no party registration in South Carolina. Any registered voter can vote in the Republican presidential primary. Voters who choose to vote in the Republican presidential primary on February 20th will not be allowed to vote in the Democratic presidential primary on February 27th.
Registration (as of February 8, 2016): 2,959,716
Given the intensity and competitiveness of the GOP campaign this year, it’s quite possible that Republicans will set a new turnout record for the primary.
Past South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Turnouts:
| Past SC GOP turnout numbers | |
|---|---|
| Year | Estimated vote |
| 2012 | 603,770 |
| 2008 | 445,677 |
| 2000 | 573,101 |
| 1996 | 276,741 |
| 1992 | 148,840 |
| 1988 | 195,292 |
| 1980 | 145,501 |
The 50 national delegates from South Carolina to the Republican National Convention are allocated on a winner-take-all basis by the statewide and congressional district vote. The statewide winner will receive all 29 at-large delegates. The winner of each of the seven congressional districts will receive three delegates per district. Up until the 2012 GOP primary when former House Speaker Newt Gingrich carried the state, South Carolina had an unbroken tradition dating back to 1980 of seeing the winner of its primary eventually becoming the Republican presidential nominee.
The make-up of the GOP primary electorate in South Carolina should help Cruz. Roughly two-thirds of the GOP primary voters in 2008 and 2012 described themselves as born-again or Evangelical Christians in the television networks’ exit polls, a survey of a representative sample of Republican primary voters as they exited their precinct polling stations. That’s a percentage comparable to the composition of the Iowa Republican caucuses, which Cruz won. At the same time, those voters who backed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the 2008 GOP South Carolina primary, sided with Gingrich over former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum who won the Iowa caucuses in 2012. It’s important to remember that Gingrich was also a fellow southerner who hailed from next-door Georgia.
Overall, the GOP primary voters in South Carolina have fewer college degrees and are less prosperous than those in New Hampshire. These modestly more downscale voters are those that fueled Trump’s victory in New Hampshire and that’s one reason why he enters the primary on Saturday and the favorite. The challenge for Rubio will be to see if he can capitalize on the endorsements he’s received from local Republicans, notably Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott, and persuade enough of the state’s center-right and more upscale Republican voters to give him a strong showing. This is important moment for the Rubio campaign because that is the coalition that he’ll need to build throughout the GOP primaries and caucuses in order to capture the Republican presidential nomination. If he completes that task in South Carolina, one immediate impact it would have is to probably force Bush from the GOP race. Many observers thought that would be his base back when he announced his candidacy.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will be helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Presidential election in South Carolina, 2016
- Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton rules, but Sanders also rising
- Presidential Nominating Index: GOP elites tilt to Trump
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
