What to look for on Super Tuesday
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Super Tuesday presidential primaries, 2016
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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February 29, 2016
This is the big one. The presidential candidates will contest delegates in 12 states and American Samoa on March 1, also known as Super Tuesday. More than a fifth of the pledged delegates for both parties are up for grabs, making Super Tuesday the richest single-day delegate prize for the Democratic and Republican presidential contenders.
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia will conduct presidential primaries for both parties. Colorado, Minnesota and American Samoa will hold caucuses for Democrats. Alaska and Minnesota will hold caucuses for Republicans. (Colorado and Wyoming will also hold GOP caucuses, but neither will conduct a presidential preference straw poll and thus their pledged delegates will be allocated at subsequent party gatherings and state conventions.) The results from these Democratic contests will allocate 865 pledged delegates. Republican contests will allocate 595.
A big question for both parties is will their presidential frontrunners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, continue to build their momentum towards their respective Democratic and Republican nominations or can their progress be slowed by their remaining rivals.
On the Democratic side, Clinton’s sole rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, must not only hold down the former Secretary of State’s margins in some of the southern states where she is expected to win, but he must also find at least a few states where he can score a victory. It’s practically a given that he will carry his home state’s primary in Vermont. Sander’s other prospects to do well are Massachusetts, Colorado and Minnesota and possibly Oklahoma.
After Clinton scored a lopsided victory in the South Carolina primary on Saturday, Sanders is likely to face tough going in the Democrats’ Dixie primaries on Super Tuesday. African Americans made up three-fifths of the Palmetto State’s primary voters and they overwhelmingly supported Clinton. Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia may not equal those totals, but they also have relatively large numbers of African-American voters who polls show continue to give solid backing to Clinton.
The Republican race on Super Tuesday is a little harder to handicap. Recent pre-primary polls show that billionaire builder and frontrunner Trump leading in every state except for Texas where home state Sen. Ted Cruz is ahead. An Arkansas survey conducted in early February also showed Cruz with narrow lead over Trump, but that was conducted before Trump won GOP nominating contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, which vaulted his campaign forward.
If Trump were to sweep the primary states outside of Texas and do well in the Alaska and Minnesota caucuses, his march towards the GOP presidential nomination is going to be hard to stop. The Republican contests do allocate their delegates proportionally in relationship to the primary results and caucus straw presidential preference polls, so Trump’s rivals will not be shut out of the delegate race, unless Trump breaks the 50 percent threshold in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas. If that happens statewide or in any of the congressional districts in those states, Trump would win all of the at-large delegates at stake or all three of the delegates that each CD allocates. Eventually, Republicans who oppose Trump need to settle on a candidate, but for Super Tuesday and the states that hold similar primaries on March 8, having multiple candidates in the race could actually help to hold Trump below the 50 percent mark.
We’ll find out after the balloting on Tuesday if someone emerges in a position to challenge Trump in the remaining GOP contests, or if the former television reality show star is going to be shining even brighter in the political arena.
Registered voters by state:
| State | Total | Republican | Democrat | Other |
| Alabama | 2,852,895 | |||
| Alaska | 514,162 | 136,229 | 70,596 | 307,337 |
| Arkansas | 1,627,181 | |||
| Colorado | 2,886,853 | 941,108 | 904,913 | 1,040,832 |
| Georgia | 4,695,698 | |||
| Massachusetts | 4,074,155 | 445,900 | 1,428,980 | 2,178,240 |
| Minnesota | 3,118,524 | |||
| Oklahoma | 1,978,807 | 880,130 | 832,130 | 266,605 |
| Tennessee | 3,214,797 | |||
| Texas | 14,238,436 | |||
| Vermont | 432,444 | |||
| Virginia | 4,674,105 |
There is no party registration in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. Any registered voter in these states can vote in either the Democratic or Republican presidential primaries.
There is party registration in Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts and Oklahoma. Only registered Republican voters can vote in the Republican presidential primary in Oklahoma. Registered Democrats and Independents can vote in the Democratic presidential primary. Registered Republicans and registered Democrats can vote in their respective party’s primaries. A person who is registered as an “unenrolled” voter in Massachusetts, which is commonly referred to as independent, can vote in either party’s primary. Seventeen-year-olds who will turn 18 before the election on November 8, 2016, can vote in the Vermont and Virginia primaries.
Only registered Republicans can participate in the Alaska GOP caucuses, but anyone can register with a party on caucus day if an official registrar is present at the caucus location. Only registered Democrats can vote in the Colorado Democratic caucuses. Any registered voter can participate in either party’s caucus in Minnesota.
Large turnouts may help Clinton in the southern Democratic primaries and likely boost Sanders’s prospects in the non-southern states. High turnout in most Republican contests is likely to help Trump more than any of his Republican rivals.
Past Democratic presidential primary turnout:
| Year | Alabama | Arkansas | Georgia | Massachusetts | Oklahoma | Tennessee | Texas | Vermont | Virginia |
| 2012 | 286,780 | 162,647 | 139,273 | 157,563 | 112,598 | 90,770 | 590,164 | 31,536 | ---- |
| 2008 | 536,635 | 314,234 | 1,060,851 | 1,258,923 | 417,207 | 624,764 | 2,874,986 | 154,960 | 986,203 |
| 2004 | 218,574 | 266,848 | 626,813 | 615,188 | 302,385 | 369,385 | 839,231 | 82,881 | 396,223 |
| 2000 | 274,703 | 246,900 | 284,431 | 571,527 | 134,850 | 215,203 | 786,890 | 49,283 | ---- |
Past Colorado Democratic Presidential Caucus Turnout:
| Year | Vote |
| 2008 | 120,411 |
Past Minnesota Democratic President Caucus Turnout:
| Year | Vote |
| 2008 | 214,066 |
| 2004 | 54,931 |
| 2000 | 15,000 |
Past Republican presidential primary turnout:
| Year | Alabama | Arkansas | Georgia | Massachusetts | Oklahoma | Tennessee | Texas | Vermont | Virginia |
| 2012 | 622,084 | 152,360 | 901,470 | 369,617 | 286,532 | 554,573 | 1,449,477 | 60,850 | 265,570 |
| 2008 | 554,639 | 229,153 | 963,541 | 500,550 | 335,054 | 553,815 | 1,362,322 | 39,843 | 489,252 |
| 2004 | 201,487 | 38,363 | 161,374 | 70,649 | 66,198 | 99,061 | 687,615 | 27,673 | ---- |
| 2000 | 203,079 | 44,573 | 643,188 | 502,932 | 124,809 | 250,791 | 1,126,757 | 81,355 | 664,093 |
Past Alaska Republican President Caucus Turnout:
| Year | Vote |
| 2012 | 13,219 |
| 2008 | 11,614 |
| 2000 | 4,330 |
Past Minnesota Republican President Caucus Turnout:
| Year | Vote |
| 2012 | 48,916 |
| 2008 | 62,828 |
| 1996 | 27,888 |
Ballotpedia will be updating our Super Tuesday results hub all evening, but if you would like to go to our sources, check out the official sites below:
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will be helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Super Tuesday presidential primaries, 2016
- Alabama Primary
- Alaska Republican Caucus
- Arkansas Primary
- Colorado Caucuses
- Georgia Primary
- Massachusetts Primary
- Minnesota Caucus
- Oklahoma Primary
- Tennessee Primary
- Texas Primary
- Vermont Primary
- Virginia Primary
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
