Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District election, 2016
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November 8, 2016 |
August 9, 2016 |
Paul Ryan  |
Paul Ryan |
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Cook Political Report: Solid R[1] Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe R[2] Rothenberg & Gonzales: Safe R[3] |
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The 1st Congressional District of Wisconsin held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 8, 2016.
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) defeated Ryan Solen (D), Jason Lebeck (L) and Spencer Zimmerman (Trump Conservative) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Ryan defeated Paul Nehlen in the Republican primary, while Solen defeated Tom Breu to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on August 9, 2016.[4][5]
The primary race between Ryan and Nehlen was considered a primary to watch in 2016. Heading into the primary, Ryan had the support of the Republican establishment and a massive lead in fundraising and polling. However, Paul Ryan's initial refusal to endorse Donald Trump in May and Trump's initial refusal to endorse Ryan on August 2, 2016, caused Nehlen's effort to unseat the Speaker to gain national media attention. Trump ultimately did endorse Paul Ryan on August 5, 2016, just three days after his initial refusal to back him. As expected, Ryan easily won the primary by a margin of over 60 percent.[6][7]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Wisconsin utilizes an open primary system; registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[8][9]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Paul Ryan (R), who was first elected in 1998.
Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District encompasses Kenosha and Racine counties and portions of Milwaukee, Rock, Walworth and Waukesha counties.[10]
Election results
General election
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Paul Ryan Incumbent |
65% | 230,072 | |
| Democratic | Ryan Solen | 30.2% | 107,003 | |
| Trump Conservative | Spencer Zimmerman | 2.7% | 9,429 | |
| Libertarian | Jason Lebeck | 2.1% | 7,486 | |
| Total Votes | 353,990 | |||
| Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission | ||||
Primary election
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Paul Ryan Incumbent |
84.1% | 57,364 | ||
| Paul Nehlen | 15.9% | 10,864 | ||
| Total Votes | 68,228 | |||
| Source: Wisconsin Elections and Ethics Commission |
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| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ryan Solen |
59.1% | 14,639 | ||
| Tom Breu | 40.9% | 10,142 | ||
| Total Votes | 24,781 | |||
| Source: Wisconsin Elections and Ethics Commission |
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Candidates
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General election candidates: Paul Ryan   Ryan Solen Jason Lebeck Spencer Zimmerman |
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Primary candidates:[11] |
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Democratic Ryan Solen[13] |
Republican Paul Nehlen[14] |
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Third Party/Other Spencer Zimmerman (Trump Conservative)[4] |
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Withdrew: John Eleniewski (Independent)[16] |
Race background
Interactions between Paul Ryan and Donald Trump
- August 5, 2016: Donald Trump endorsed incumbent Paul Ryan at a Rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Trump said, "We will have disagreements, but we will disagree as friends and never stop working together toward victory. And very importantly, toward real change. So in our shared mission, to make America great again, I support and endorse our speaker of the House, Paul Ryan."[17]
- August 3, 2016: Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence endorsed Paul Ryan a day after Donald Trump's refusal to do so. Pence said of the endorsement, "I spoke to Donald Trump this morning about my support for Paul Ryan, our longtime friendship. He strongly encouraged me to endorse Paul Ryan in next Tuesday's primary. I'm pleased to do it."[18]
- August 2, 2016: Donald Trump refused to endorse Paul Ryan's re-election bid. Trump said of Ryan, "I like Paul, but these are horrible times for our country. We need very strong leadership. We need very, very strong leadership. And I’m just not quite there yet. I’m not quite there yet." In response to Trump's statement, Ryan spokesman Zack Roday said, "Neither Speaker Ryan nor anyone on his team has ever asked for Donald Trump’s endorsement. And we are confident in a victory next week regardless."[19]
- June 2, 2016: Paul Ryan endorsed Donald Trump. Ryan wrote of the endorsement, "I feel confident he would help us turn the ideas in this agenda into laws to help improve people's lives. That's why I'll be voting for him this fall. "It's no secret that he and I have our differences. I won't pretend otherwise. And when I feel the need to, I'll continue to speak my mind. But the reality is, on the issues that make up our agenda, we have more common ground than disagreement."[20]
- May 5, 2016: During an interview with CNN, Ryan said that “he cannot support or endorse” Donald Trump for president. Ryan said, “To be perfectly candid with you … I’m just not ready to that at this point. I’m not there right now. I hope to though and I want to. But what is required is to unify this party. And the bulk of the burden on unifying the party will have to come from our presumptive nominee. ...At this point I’m not ready to jump in, but I hope we can get there. … This is the party of Lincoln, of Reagan, of Jack Kemp. And we don’t always nominate a Lincoln or a Reagan every four years. But we hope that our nominee aspires to be Lincoln and Reaganesque, that that person advances the principles of our party and appeals to a wide, vast majority of Americans.”[21] Ryan's lack of endorsement for Trump prompted backlash from several Republicans including Trump supporter Sarah Palin, who vowed to back Ryan's primary opponent Paul Nehlen.[22]
Endorsements
Paul Ryan
- Vice presidential nominee Mike Pence[18]
- Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker - "Paul Ryan’s re-election is important to every Wisconsin conservative. His leadership is too important to Wisconsin and our country to risk losing him..."[23]
Paul Nehlen
- Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin - "It’s time for a change. I’m supporting the independent conservative businessman, Paul Nehlen, to return the House Speakership to ‘We The People’."[24]
- Ann Coulter - "You are so lucky to be living in this district because it’s like we’re standing in the Amtrak train station looking up and there’s only two trains leaving,. You got the Nehlen leaving at 2:06 and then the Trump leaving the station. After that happens, there’s not another train coming through. This is it. This is your last chance to save America. Vote for the party of America for Americans and vote for Paul Nehlen."[25]
- Phyllis Schlafly - "It doesn't sound like he [Ryan] is loyal to the Republican Party. We need someone who is going to be a spokesman for the Republican Party and its nominee. And if Ryan doesn't fill that bill, we should get another one."[26]
Polling
| Paul Ryan vs. Paul Nehlen | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Paul Ryan | Paul Nehlen | Undecided/Refused | Margin of Error | Sample Size | ||||||||||||||
| Remington Research Group August 3, 2016 | 80% | 14% | 6% | +/-3 | 1,157 | ||||||||||||||
| Washington Free Beacon May 22-23, 2016 | 80% | 7% | 13% | +/-2.83 | 451 | ||||||||||||||
| Remington Research Group May 9-10, 2016 | 78% | 14% | 8% | +/-4.5 | 442 | ||||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
Media
Paul Ryan
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Paul Nehlen
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Campaign contributions
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
Paul Ryan
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
Paul Nehlen
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
The finance data shown here comes from the disclosures required of candidates and parties. Depending on the election or state, this may not represent all the funds spent on their behalf. Satellite spending groups may or may not have expended funds related to the candidate or politician on whose page you are reading this disclaimer, and campaign finance data from elections may be incomplete. For elections to federal offices, complete data can be found at the FEC website. Click here for more on federal campaign finance law and here for more on state campaign finance law.
District history
2014
The 1st Congressional District of Wisconsin held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) defeated Rob Zerban (D) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Paul Ryan Incumbent |
63.3% | 182,316 | |
| Democratic | Rob Zerban | 36.6% | 105,552 | |
| Independent | Keith Deschler - Write-in | 0% | 29 | |
| N/A | Scattering | 0.1% | 273 | |
| Total Votes | 288,170 | |||
| Source: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board | ||||
2012
On November 6, 2012, Paul Ryan (R) won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Rob Zerban and Keith Deschler in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Rob Zerban | 43.4% | 158,414 | |
| Republican | Paul Ryan Incumbent |
54.9% | 200,423 | |
| Libertarian | Keith Deschler | 1.7% | 6,054 | |
| Miscellaneous | N/A | 0% | 167 | |
| Total Votes | 365,058 | |||
| Source: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" (dead link) | ||||
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Wisconsin elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Wisconsin in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 5, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for candidates to file nomination papers, declarations of candidacy and campaign registration statements for the spring election | |
| January 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | January continuing report due | |
| February 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | Spring pre-primary report due | |
| March 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Spring pre-election report due | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for candidates to file nomination papers, declarations of candidacy and campaign registration statements for the general election | |
| July 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | July continuing report due | |
| August 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Fall partisan primary report due | |
| August 9, 2016 | Election date | State partisan primary election | |
| September 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Fourth Tuesday in September report due | |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | Fall general election report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Sources: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Calendar of Election and Campaign Events," accessed January 11, 2016 Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "New Campaign Finance Laws Effective January 1, 2016," December 21, 2015 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin, 2016
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 House Race Ratings for July 11, 2016," accessed July 19, 2016
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 House," accessed July 18, 2016
- ↑ Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "House Ratings," accessed July 19, 2016
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Candidate Tracking by Office," accessed June 2, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Wisconsin House Primaries Results," August 9, 2016
- ↑ The Washington Post, " Trump refuses to endorse Paul Ryan in GOP primary: ‘I’m just not quite there yet’" August 2, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Trump expected to endorse Ryan Friday," August 5, 2016
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed October 4, 2024
- ↑ Wisconsin State Legislature, "Wis. State § 5.62 Partisan primary ballots," accessed October 4, 2024
- ↑ Wisconsin Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
- ↑ Candidates are listed by party and alphabetically within each party.
- ↑ Tom Breu for Congress, "Home," accessed February 17, 2016
- ↑ Ryan Solen for Congress, "About," accessed March 21, 2016
- ↑ The Washington Times, "Paul Ryan faces primary challenge from wealthy businessman ‘betrayed’ by House speaker," March 28, 2016
- ↑ Wispolitics.com, "Lebeck Campaign: Libertarian Jason Lebeck announces challenge to Speaker Paul Ryan for Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District," January 19, 2016
- ↑ John Eleniewski for U.S. Congress, "Home," accessed March 24, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Trump endorses Paul Ryan, John McCain," August 6, 2016
- ↑ 18.0 18.1 CNBC, "Mike Pence endorses Paul Ryan, a day after Donald Trump declined to," August 3, 2016
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Trump refuses to endorse Paul Ryan in GOP primary: ‘I’m just not quite there yet’," August 2, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Paul Ryan endorses Donald Trump," June 2, 2016
- ↑ The Hill, "Ryan 'not ready' to support Trump," accessed May 5, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Sarah Palin will work to defeat Ryan in primary for Trump stance," May 9, 2016
- ↑ Breitbart, "Nervous! Scott Walker Sends Fundraising Letter for Paul Ryan: Nehlen ‘Paul’s Toughest Fight Yet’," July 19, 2016
- ↑ Breitbart, "Sarah Palin Endorses Paul Ryan Challenger Paul Nehlen: Ryan’s ‘Political Career Is Over’ for ‘Disrespecting the Will of the People’," May 8, 2016
- ↑ Breitbart, "Ann Coulter Lights Wisconsin on Fire for Paul Nehlen Against Paul Ryan: ‘This is It, This is Your Last Chance to Save America’," August 6, 2016
- ↑ The Washington Examiner, "Schlafly endorses Paul Nehlen in campaign against Paul Ryan," August 3, 2016
For information about public policy issues in the 2016 elections, see: Public policy in the 2016 elections!
