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Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

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Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2020
Primary: August 11, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Ron Kind (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Wisconsin
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Wisconsin elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Wisconsin, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Ronald James Kind defeated Derrick Van Orden in the general election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
June 1, 2020
August 11, 2020
November 3, 2020


Incumbent Ron Kind (D), first elected in 1996, ran for re-election. In 2018, Kind defeated challenger Steve Toft (R), receiving 60 percent of the vote to Toft's 40 percent.

Kind was one of thirty House Democrats representing a district that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. During the presidential election, Trump received 49 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton's (D) 45 percent in the 3rd District.[1]

Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District encompasses Adams, Buffalo, Crawford, Dunn, Eau Claire, Grant, La Crosse, Pepin, Pierce, Portage, Trempealeau, and Vernon counties. Parts of Chippewa, Jackson, Juneau, Monroe, Richland, and Wood counties also lie within the district.[2]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 46.8 51.3
Republican candidate Republican Party 51.5 48.6
Difference 4.7 2.7

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Wisconsin modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee and mail-in ballot applications were sent to most registered voters in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3

Incumbent Ronald James Kind defeated Derrick Van Orden in the general election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ronald James Kind
Ronald James Kind (D)
 
51.3
 
199,870
Image of Derrick Van Orden
Derrick Van Orden (R) Candidate Connection
 
48.6
 
189,524
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
224

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 389,618
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3

Incumbent Ronald James Kind defeated Mark A. Neumann in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3 on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ronald James Kind
Ronald James Kind
 
80.6
 
53,064
Image of Mark A. Neumann
Mark A. Neumann
 
19.4
 
12,765
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
12

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 65,841
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3

Derrick Van Orden defeated Jessi Ebben in the Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3 on August 11, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Derrick Van Orden
Derrick Van Orden Candidate Connection
 
65.9
 
36,395
Image of Jessi Ebben
Jessi Ebben Candidate Connection
 
34.1
 
18,835
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
21

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 55,251
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District the 199th most Democratic nationally.[3]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[4]


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[5]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[6][7][8]

Race ratings: Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump in 2016

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump in 2016

This district was one of 30 Democratic-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election. Most were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2020.


2020 Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016
District Incumbent Ran in 2020? 2018 congressional margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran Yes Democrats+7.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+2.5
Georgia's 6th Democratic Party Lucy McBath Yes Democrats+1.0 Trump+1.5 Romney+23.3
Illinois' 14th Democratic Party Lauren Underwood Yes Democrats+5.0 Trump+3.9 Romney+10
Illinois' 17th Democratic Party Cheri Bustos Yes Democrats+24.2 Trump+0.7 Obama+17
Iowa's 1st Democratic Party Abby Finkenauer Yes Democrats+5.1 Trump+3.5 Obama+13.7
Iowa's 2nd Democratic Party Dave Loebsack Retired Democrats+5.2 Trump+4.1 Obama+13.1
Iowa's 3rd Democratic Party Cindy Axne Yes Democrats+2.2 Trump+3.5 Obama+4.2
Maine's 2nd Democratic Party Jared Golden Yes Democrats+1.3 Trump+10.3 Obama+8.6
Michigan's 8th Democratic Party Elissa Slotkin Yes Democrats+3.8 Trump+6.7 Romney+3.1
Michigan's 11th Democratic Party Haley Stevens Yes Democrats+6.7 Trump+4.4 Romney+5.4
Minnesota's 2nd Democratic Party Angie Craig Yes Democrats+5.5 Trump+1.2 Obama+0.1
Minnesota's 7th Democratic Party Collin Peterson Yes Democrats+4.3 Trump+30.8 Romney+9.8
Nevada's 3rd Democratic Party Susie Lee Yes Democrats+9.1 Trump+1.0 Obama+0.8
New Hampshire's 1st Democratic Party Chris Pappas Yes Democrats+8.6 Trump+1.6 Obama+1.6
New Jersey's 3rd Democratic Party Andrew Kim Yes Democrats+1.3 Trump+6.2 Obama+4.6
New Jersey's 5th Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Yes Democrats+13.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+3.0
New Jersey's 11th Democratic Party Mikie Sherrill Yes Democrats+14.6 Trump+0.9 Romney+5.8
New Mexico's 2nd Democratic Party Xochitl Torres Small Yes Democrats+1.9 Trump+10.2 Romney+6.8
New York's 11th Democratic Party Max Rose Yes Democrats+6.5 Trump+9.8 Obama+4.3
New York's 18th Democratic Party Sean Maloney Yes Democrats+10.9 Trump+1.9 Obama+4.3
New York's 19th Democratic Party Antonio Delgado Yes Democrats+5.2 Trump+6.8 Obama+6.2
New York's 22nd Democratic Party Anthony Brindisi Yes Democrats+1.8 Trump+15.5 Romney+0.4
Oklahoma's 5th Democratic Party Kendra Horn Yes Democrats+1.4 Trump+13.4 Romney+18.4
Pennsylvania's 8th Democratic Party Matt Cartwright Yes Democrats+9.3 Trump+9.6 Obama+11.9
Pennsylvania's 17th Democratic Party Conor Lamb Yes Democrats+12.5 Trump+2.6 Romney+4.5
South Carolina's 1st Democratic Party Joe Cunningham Yes Democrats+1.4 Trump+13.1 Romney+18.1
Utah's 4th Democratic Party Ben McAdams Yes Democrats+0.3 Trump+6.7 Romney+37.0
Virginia's 2nd Democratic Party Elaine Luria Yes Democrats+2.2 Trump+3.4 Romney+2.3
Virginia's 7th Democratic Party Abigail Spanberger Yes Democrats+1.9 Trump+6.5 Romney+10.5
Wisconsin's 3rd Democratic Party Ron Kind Yes Democrats+19.3 Trump+4.5 Obama+11
Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball and Daily Kos


Click here to see the five U.S. House districts represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in Wisconsin in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Wisconsin, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Wisconsin 3rd Congressional District Recognized party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 6/1/2020 Source
Wisconsin 3rd Congressional District Unaffiliated 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 6/1/2020 Source

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twenty-three of 72 Wisconsin counties—32 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Adams County, Wisconsin 21.92% 8.73% 18.35%
Buffalo County, Wisconsin 21.82% 2.93% 14.66%
Columbia County, Wisconsin 2.14% 13.58% 15.26%
Crawford County, Wisconsin 5.40% 19.98% 27.03%
Door County, Wisconsin 3.22% 6.99% 17.33%
Dunn County, Wisconsin 11.09% 4.97% 14.95%
Forest County, Wisconsin 26.58% 5.44% 15.16%
Grant County, Wisconsin 9.43% 13.77% 23.88%
Jackson County, Wisconsin 11.74% 15.01% 21.84%
Juneau County, Wisconsin 26.05% 7.03% 9.00%
Kenosha County, Wisconsin 0.31% 12.23% 18.06%
Lafayette County, Wisconsin 8.99% 15.37% 22.32%
Lincoln County, Wisconsin 20.60% 0.71% 12.48%
Marquette County, Wisconsin 24.09% 0.27% 5.28%
Pepin County, Wisconsin 23.08% 2.22% 12.89%
Price County, Wisconsin 25.00% 0.04% 13.40%
Racine County, Wisconsin 4.28% 3.54% 7.41%
Richland County, Wisconsin 5.50% 16.13% 20.63%
Sauk County, Wisconsin 0.35% 18.47% 23.04%
Sawyer County, Wisconsin 18.41% 0.49% 6.23%
Trempealeau County, Wisconsin 12.64% 14.08% 26.39%
Vernon County, Wisconsin 4.43% 14.73% 22.00%
Winnebago County, Wisconsin 7.34% 3.73% 11.66%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Wisconsin with 47.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 46.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Wisconsin cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Wisconsin supported Republicans slightly more than Democratic candidates, 50.0 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election from 2000 to 2012 before voting for Trump in 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in Wisconsin. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[9][10]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 43 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 34.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 36 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 34.6 points. Clinton won three districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 56 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 12.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 63 out of 99 state Assembly districts in Wisconsin with an average margin of victory of 19.4 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District election history

2018

See also: Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3

Incumbent Ronald James Kind defeated Steve Toft in the general election for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ronald James Kind
Ronald James Kind (D)
 
59.7
 
187,888
Image of Steve Toft
Steve Toft (R)
 
40.3
 
126,980

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 314,868
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3

Incumbent Ronald James Kind advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ronald James Kind
Ronald James Kind
 
100.0
 
59,643

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 59,643
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3

Steve Toft advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Steve Toft
Steve Toft
 
100.0
 
35,768

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 35,768
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) faced no opposition in the general election on November 8, 2016. Kind defeated Myron Buchholz in the Democratic primary on August 9, 2016.[11][12]

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRon Kind Incumbent 99.9% 257,401
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 169
Total Votes 257,570
Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission


U.S. House, Wisconsin District 3 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRon Kind Incumbent 81.3% 33,320
Myron Buchholz 18.7% 7,689
Total Votes 41,009
Source: Wisconsin Elections and Ethics Commission

2014

See also: Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Wisconsin held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) defeated Tony Kurtz (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Wisconsin District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRon Kind Incumbent 56.5% 155,368
     Republican Tony Kurtz 43.4% 119,540
     Independent Ken Van Doren - Write-in 0% 128
     N/A Scattering 0% 125
Total Votes 275,161
Source: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Daily Kos, ""Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008,"" accessed June 24, 2020
  2. ↑ Wisconsin Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  3. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  4. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  5. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  6. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  10. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  11. ↑ Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Candidate Tracking by Office," accessed June 2, 2016
  12. ↑ Politico, "Wisconsin House Primaries Results," August 9, 2016


Wisconsin's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Ronald Johnson (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Tony Wied (R)
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (3)


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