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Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020 (August 11 Republican primary)

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Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2020
Primary: August 11, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Ron Kind (Democratic)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Wisconsin
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Wisconsin elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

A Republican Party primary took place on August 11, 2020, in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District to determine which Republican candidate would run in the district's general election on November 3, 2020.

Derrick Van Orden advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
June 1, 2020
August 11, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election, the incumbent was Ron Kind (Democrat), who was first elected in 1996.

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Wisconsin utilizes an open primary system; registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[2][3]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

This page focuses on Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Political party events in Wisconsin were modified as follows:

  • Political party events: The Republican Party of Wisconsin postponed its state convention, originally scheduled to take place in May, to July 10-11.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Wisconsin District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Derrick Van Orden
Derrick Van Orden Candidate Connection
 
65.9
 
36,395
Image of Jessi Ebben
Jessi Ebben Candidate Connection
 
34.1
 
18,835
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
21

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 55,251
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District the 199th most Democratic nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jessi Ebben Republican Party $230,178 $228,878 $1,300 As of December 31, 2020
Derrick Van Orden Republican Party $2,001,838 $1,988,034 $13,804 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump in 2016

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump in 2016

This district was one of 30 Democratic-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election. Most were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2020.


2020 Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016
District Incumbent Ran in 2020? 2018 congressional margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran Yes Democrats+7.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+2.5
Georgia's 6th Democratic Party Lucy McBath Yes Democrats+1.0 Trump+1.5 Romney+23.3
Illinois' 14th Democratic Party Lauren Underwood Yes Democrats+5.0 Trump+3.9 Romney+10
Illinois' 17th Democratic Party Cheri Bustos Yes Democrats+24.2 Trump+0.7 Obama+17
Iowa's 1st Democratic Party Abby Finkenauer Yes Democrats+5.1 Trump+3.5 Obama+13.7
Iowa's 2nd Democratic Party Dave Loebsack Retired Democrats+5.2 Trump+4.1 Obama+13.1
Iowa's 3rd Democratic Party Cindy Axne Yes Democrats+2.2 Trump+3.5 Obama+4.2
Maine's 2nd Democratic Party Jared Golden Yes Democrats+1.3 Trump+10.3 Obama+8.6
Michigan's 8th Democratic Party Elissa Slotkin Yes Democrats+3.8 Trump+6.7 Romney+3.1
Michigan's 11th Democratic Party Haley Stevens Yes Democrats+6.7 Trump+4.4 Romney+5.4
Minnesota's 2nd Democratic Party Angie Craig Yes Democrats+5.5 Trump+1.2 Obama+0.1
Minnesota's 7th Democratic Party Collin Peterson Yes Democrats+4.3 Trump+30.8 Romney+9.8
Nevada's 3rd Democratic Party Susie Lee Yes Democrats+9.1 Trump+1.0 Obama+0.8
New Hampshire's 1st Democratic Party Chris Pappas Yes Democrats+8.6 Trump+1.6 Obama+1.6
New Jersey's 3rd Democratic Party Andrew Kim Yes Democrats+1.3 Trump+6.2 Obama+4.6
New Jersey's 5th Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Yes Democrats+13.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+3.0
New Jersey's 11th Democratic Party Mikie Sherrill Yes Democrats+14.6 Trump+0.9 Romney+5.8
New Mexico's 2nd Democratic Party Xochitl Torres Small Yes Democrats+1.9 Trump+10.2 Romney+6.8
New York's 11th Democratic Party Max Rose Yes Democrats+6.5 Trump+9.8 Obama+4.3
New York's 18th Democratic Party Sean Maloney Yes Democrats+10.9 Trump+1.9 Obama+4.3
New York's 19th Democratic Party Antonio Delgado Yes Democrats+5.2 Trump+6.8 Obama+6.2
New York's 22nd Democratic Party Anthony Brindisi Yes Democrats+1.8 Trump+15.5 Romney+0.4
Oklahoma's 5th Democratic Party Kendra Horn Yes Democrats+1.4 Trump+13.4 Romney+18.4
Pennsylvania's 8th Democratic Party Matt Cartwright Yes Democrats+9.3 Trump+9.6 Obama+11.9
Pennsylvania's 17th Democratic Party Conor Lamb Yes Democrats+12.5 Trump+2.6 Romney+4.5
South Carolina's 1st Democratic Party Joe Cunningham Yes Democrats+1.4 Trump+13.1 Romney+18.1
Utah's 4th Democratic Party Ben McAdams Yes Democrats+0.3 Trump+6.7 Romney+37.0
Virginia's 2nd Democratic Party Elaine Luria Yes Democrats+2.2 Trump+3.4 Romney+2.3
Virginia's 7th Democratic Party Abigail Spanberger Yes Democrats+1.9 Trump+6.5 Romney+10.5
Wisconsin's 3rd Democratic Party Ron Kind Yes Democrats+19.3 Trump+4.5 Obama+11
Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball and Daily Kos


Click here to see the five U.S. House districts represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 On April 2, 2020, Judge William M. Conley, of the United States District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin, issued an order extending absentee voting deadlines in Wisconsin's April 7, 2020, election. Under Conley's order, the absentee ballot request deadline was extended to 5:00 p.m. April 3, 2020. The ballot return deadline was extended to 4:00 p.m. April 13, 2020. The primary date itself was unchanged.
  2. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed October 4, 2024
  3. ↑ Wisconsin State Legislature, "Wis. State § 5.62 Partisan primary ballots," accessed October 4, 2024
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018


Wisconsin's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Ronald Johnson (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Tony Wied (R)
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (3)


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